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Paris and beyond:
strengthening the research-policy interface
Key Insights from the GCPC 2015 meeting (New Delhi)
Ambuj Sa...
‘Managing’ impacts:
Adaptation and loss & damage
1. Adaptation: Lessons from a fragmented
landscape
• Due to diversity of local adaptation efforts and needs, very
specific...
Recognizing the Diversity of Adaptation
Source: John Colvin, GCPC 2015, New Delhi
A task for academics …..
Lessons beyond adaptation
Adaptation and resilience offer many theoretical and practical
insights about how change happens...
2. Loss and Damage – Science perspective
• New developments in Probabilistic Event Attribution
- Very large ensembles of ‘...
Loss and Damage - Legal Perspective
• Ongoing discussions in UNFCCC
– Challenge of ‘compensation’ and liability in the neg...
Relationships between Law and Science?
• Does improved probabilistic event attribution change the legal
scene?
– Past anal...
Driving change:
Clubs for technological innovation
Technology, innovation, and climate change
• Technology a central element of the solution set to address
climate change
• ...
What is missing?
Money =========
(at rising scale)
 ======= Markets
(credible and strategically
growing)
“Innovation club” as a possible way
forward?
Countries that join the club:
• Commit to some level of carbon pricing (compa...
Why would countries join such a coalition?
• Want to do something about climate change
• Truly interested in carbon pricin...
Questions, questions…
• Which countries would be willing to join such a coalition?
• Would such arrangements fit under the...
• Disclaimer: This is a necessarily incomplete summary of
discussions from the GCPC. The thoughts and ideas
presented here...
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Paris and beyond: strengthening the research-policy interface, Ambuj Sagar, Heleen de Coninck, Michael Grubb, Sonja Klinsky

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A. Sagar (Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Delhi, India), at the Our Common Future Under Climate Change conference, July 7-10 in Paris, France.

More at http://www.commonfuture-paris2015.org/

Published in: Science
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Paris and beyond: strengthening the research-policy interface, Ambuj Sagar, Heleen de Coninck, Michael Grubb, Sonja Klinsky

  1. 1. Paris and beyond: strengthening the research-policy interface Key Insights from the GCPC 2015 meeting (New Delhi) Ambuj Sagar, Heleen de Coninck, Michael Grubb, and Sonja Klinsky
  2. 2. ‘Managing’ impacts: Adaptation and loss & damage
  3. 3. 1. Adaptation: Lessons from a fragmented landscape • Due to diversity of local adaptation efforts and needs, very specific (and context-dependent) lessons • Despite multiple attempts to develop ‘lessons’, ‘best practice’, many challenges remain: – How to measure success (and how determine what has NOT been successful) for different kinds of goals  Facilitating short-term adaptation  Longer term resilience to shocks  Long term transformative adaptation – How to appropriately share lessons across contexts? How to go from multiple experiments to “generalized knowledge”?
  4. 4. Recognizing the Diversity of Adaptation Source: John Colvin, GCPC 2015, New Delhi
  5. 5. A task for academics …..
  6. 6. Lessons beyond adaptation Adaptation and resilience offer many theoretical and practical insights about how change happens (or can be supported) •Importance of context; greater attention to politics, power and social aspects than traditional mitigation research •Nuanced theories of change – Recognition of non-linear ‘scale up’, multiple avenues for learning and connecting – Many different elements and drivers of change recognized for individuals, communities, institutions, cultures etc.
  7. 7. 2. Loss and Damage – Science perspective • New developments in Probabilistic Event Attribution - Very large ensembles of ‘in silico’ experiments allow for statistical estimation the shifts in the probability of a particular extreme event because of climate change • To date, these studies have been ad hoc and not designed to inform global policy - By default much more study in developed countries in areas near research centers (EU, Australia, US) - But value of a more coherent effort to do such studies in a globally targeted way
  8. 8. Loss and Damage - Legal Perspective • Ongoing discussions in UNFCCC – Challenge of ‘compensation’ and liability in the negotiations – Would a ‘solidarity and support’ frame work better? • Options for legal action outside UNFCCC – Country to country ‘cessation and reparation’ claims, but multiple barriers (finding ‘standing’, clarity of causation, establishing damages, etc.) – Use of human rights law if human rights have been damaged (similar barriers to above) – Use domestic law and legislate claims in own jurisdiction • Recognition of learning, and narrative creation through use of legal instruments, even when not ‘successful’
  9. 9. Relationships between Law and Science? • Does improved probabilistic event attribution change the legal scene? – Past analogies with tobacco and other uses of probabilistic evidence in legal causation decisions? – What kinds of options are there for private sector fiduciary responsibility through stronger probabilistic science?
  10. 10. Driving change: Clubs for technological innovation
  11. 11. Technology, innovation, and climate change • Technology a central element of the solution set to address climate change • “additional costs of deploying energy technologies between 2016 and 2050 [to stay within the 2 °C target] is 40 trillion dollars. (IEA ETP 2015) • “although absolute spending on energy related RD&D has increased, the share of energy RD&D is not keeping pace with the level of ambition needed” (IEA ETP 2014) • Carbon pricing can drive innovation but…
  12. 12. What is missing? Money ========= (at rising scale)  ======= Markets (credible and strategically growing)
  13. 13. “Innovation club” as a possible way forward? Countries that join the club: • Commit to some level of carbon pricing (comparability/networked?) • Commit to financing low-carbon technology and R&D, domestically and in developing country club members • Agree to treatment of international trade to address negative effects of pricing and stimulate innovation Price on carbon Investment in low-carbon technology More low- carbon innovation Economic benefits from trade
  14. 14. Why would countries join such a coalition? • Want to do something about climate change • Truly interested in carbon pricing: reduce carbon leakage • Have difficulty accessing technology, funding research or setting up innovation systems can access funds • Perceive setting up carbon pricing systems as costly may be convinced by benefits arising from trade arrangements • Worried about other countries’ capabilities to adopt low- carbon innovations can raise funding to help
  15. 15. Questions, questions… • Which countries would be willing to join such a coalition? • Would such arrangements fit under the UNFCCC or should it be an independent effort? • How can comparability of efforts be ensured? • What would be the arrangements for international trade? • What specific arrangements can best help trade, carbon pricing, finance and technology reinforce each other for climate change mitigation?
  16. 16. • Disclaimer: This is a necessarily incomplete summary of discussions from the GCPC. The thoughts and ideas presented here are from a number of experts (see below); any shortcoming in representing their views are mine Key Experts included: Fredericke Otto, Lavanya Rajamani (Loss & Damage) John Colvin, Indrani Phukan (Adaptation) Axel Michaelowa, Kasturi Das, Michael Grubb, and Heleen de Coninck (Innovation Clubs) THANK YOU asagar@hss.iitd.ac.in

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