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ORACLE
Opportunities and Risks for Agrosystems & forests
in response to CLimate, socio-economic
and policy changEs in Fran...
Our objectives :
 Evaluate the impacts of various climate change
scenarios on the functioning of managed ecosystems
(larg...
Develop and Analyze Varieties of
Agro-Ecoclimatic Indicators
(characterize the functioning and the
management of large-sca...
Methodology-2
Lungarska et al. in prep.
Agro-EcoclimaicIndicators
Biophysic Models:
How does climate influence large-scale crops?
~17°C
~16°C
~19°C
The link between the mean annual
temperature of France, an...
Can we optimize crop pratices under climate change scenarios?
SIMPLIFIED CROP
MODEL
Aggregation
Rules and
Decision Tree
Yi...
Can we optimize crop pratices under climate change scenarios?
Comparison of some performances obtained
in response to clim...
What impacts do scenarios of climate change have on
Forest growth and distribution?
Impact of Climate Change on Beech Tree...
What impacts do scenarios of climate change have on
forest growth and distribution?
0,000
0,200
0,400
0,600
0,800
1,000
1,...
How do we optimize forests growth under climate change?
Lobianco et al. 2015
Observed today’s coniferous area =
starting p...
How do we optimize forests growth under climate change?
Simulated coniferous area
in 2100 (SRES A1B, ARPEGE)
Lobianco et a...
Will the limits between the Utilized Agricultural Area and the area of
managed forests change in the future?
3 proxies tes...
FORESTAREAAGRICULTUREAREA
OBSERVED SIMULATED
Will the limits between the Utilized Agricultural Area and the area of
manage...
Perspectives of this work:
 Map the French areas where a specific agrosystem is
either at risk or potentially cultivable ...
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ORACLE: Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France, Nathalie de Noblet

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N. De Noblet-Ducoudré (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France), I. Garcia De Cortazar-Atauri (INRA, Avignon, France), J.-D. Bontemps (AgroParisTech, Nancy, France), J.-C. Calvet (Meteo-France, Toulouse, France), D. Carrer (Meteo France, Toulouse, France), J. Caubel (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France), P. Delacote (INRA, Nancy, France), P.-A. Jayet, (INRA, Thiverval-Grignon, France), N. Laanaia (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France), L. Antonello (AgroParisTech, Nancy, France), D. Loustau (INRA, Villenave d'Ornon, France), A. Lungarska (INRA, Thiverval-Grignon, France), S. Wieruszeski (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France), at the Our Common Future Under Climate Change conference, July 7-10 in Paris, France.

More at http://www.commonfuture-paris2015.org/

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ORACLE: Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France, Nathalie de Noblet

  1. 1. ORACLE Opportunities and Risks for Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France Nathalie de Noblet nathalie.de-noblet@lsce.ipsl.fr Jean-Daniel Bontemps, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Dominique Carrer, Julie Caubel, Sylvain Caurla, Philippe Delacotte, Thierry Doré, Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, Pierre-Alain Jayet, Nabil Laania, Marie Launay, David Leclère, Antonello Lobianco, Denis Loustau, Anna Lungarska, Pierre Mérian, Charles Mottes, Christian Pagé, Ingrid Seynave, Anne-Charlotte Vivant, Sophie Wieruszeski
  2. 2. Our objectives :  Evaluate the impacts of various climate change scenarios on the functioning of managed ecosystems (large-scale crops, forests, pasture);  Calculate the implications of changing policies, or launching adaptation and /or mitigation practices on land uses;  Evaluate how the limits between the Utilized Agricultural Area and the area of managed forests may change in the future, in response to changes in both climate and policies/adaptation/mitigation strategies.
  3. 3. Develop and Analyze Varieties of Agro-Ecoclimatic Indicators (characterize the functioning and the management of large-scale crops, e.g. wheat, corn, sunflower, …) Calvet et al. 2012; Wilcox and Makowski 2014; Caubel et al. 2015; Laania et al. subm. Climate Change Scenarios at the scale of France [8km*8km] SRES A1b, B1 and A2 (1 climate model) SRES A1b (13 climate models) Policy, Mitigation, and Adaptation Scenarios (e.g. greenhouse gas taxes, intensity of timber harvesting) Fixed Utilized Agriculture Area: Adaptation via 1) management (e.g. sowing dates, irrigation, choice of cultivars), 2) land reallocation between various crops, crop versus pasture land Leclère et al. 2013; Mottes et al. in prep. Fixed Area of Managed Forests: Adaptation via choice of species and/or management strategies Lobianco et al. 2015 Develop and Analyze the Changes in Forest Distribution and Growth [per specie] Wernsdörfer et al. 2012; Bontemps et al. subm. Methodology-1 INPUTS Biophysic Models + Agro- Ecoclimatic Indicators Economic Models OUTPUTS
  4. 4. Methodology-2 Lungarska et al. in prep. Agro-EcoclimaicIndicators Biophysic Models:
  5. 5. How does climate influence large-scale crops? ~17°C ~16°C ~19°C The link between the mean annual temperature of France, and the duration of the longest heat wave growing heat wave length Derived Yield from ORCHIDEE’s outputs Yieldfromspecificmodel:STICS(t/ha) Sunflower Feasibilityofrain-fedcorn Increased interannual variability Decreased feasibility Corn in Toulouse Climatic an annual view of climate change, using agro-relevant indicators Eco-Climatic Sub-annual analysis of Climate for agricultural purposes when / what meteorological stresses will crops meet in the future? Will producers meet the conditions for potential climatic productivity? Integrated the climate is read by a generic model, and transformed into quantities that describe the functioning of the ecosystem (natural or managed) Caubel et al. 2015, Laania et al. subm.
  6. 6. Can we optimize crop pratices under climate change scenarios? SIMPLIFIED CROP MODEL Aggregation Rules and Decision Tree Yields; GHG; Δ SoilCarbon; Nitrate leaching; Phosphorus losses; Ammonia volatilization; Crop water needs; Water bought for irrigation soil compaction risk; weed pressure; erosion risk; crop diversity Pool of known practices and of dependancies between environmental characteristics and practices 12 Performances Shaded fraction of the ground Practice module Soil properties + Climate conditions Climate conditions CliMultiCS Model Choice of management practice Mottes et al. in prep.
  7. 7. Can we optimize crop pratices under climate change scenarios? Comparison of some performances obtained in response to climate change (red vs blue) and/or to choice of practice (modified vs reference). Performances are summed over 33 years Winter Rapeseed  winter Wheat  winter Barley REFERENCE = simplified ploughing, straw and residues exported MODIFIED = straw and residues are systematically ploughed in + ++ + + ++ Mottes et al. in prep.
  8. 8. What impacts do scenarios of climate change have on Forest growth and distribution? Impact of Climate Change on Beech Trees A1B Climate Scenario, ARPEGE Model downscaled to 8km resolution Bontemps et al. subm. 2025 2055 2085Median of ~30 years
  9. 9. What impacts do scenarios of climate change have on forest growth and distribution? 0,000 0,200 0,400 0,600 0,800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 0,000 0,100 0,200 0,300 0,400 0,500 0,600 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Epicéa Sapin Pin sylvestre Chêne pubescent Chêne pédonculé Hêtre Chêne sessile Forest Growth Probability of presence years White oak White oak Coniferous Broad-leaved Trees Broad-leaved Trees
  10. 10. How do we optimize forests growth under climate change? Lobianco et al. 2015 Observed today’s coniferous area = starting point
  11. 11. How do we optimize forests growth under climate change? Simulated coniferous area in 2100 (SRES A1B, ARPEGE) Lobianco et al. 2015 Observed today’s coniferous area = starting point 1 dark pixel = presence of coniferous forest Forest is present either because its ‘niche’ has expanded, or its productivity is sustainable
  12. 12. Will the limits between the Utilized Agricultural Area and the area of managed forests change in the future? 3 proxies tested for the agricultural share
  13. 13. FORESTAREAAGRICULTUREAREA OBSERVED SIMULATED Will the limits between the Utilized Agricultural Area and the area of managed forests change in the future? Here: test of the capacity of this model to represent present-day distribution of agricultural and forest share
  14. 14. Perspectives of this work:  Map the French areas where a specific agrosystem is either at risk or potentially cultivable (large-scale crops and various forests’ species).  Study the potential of Utilized Agricultural Area to shrink or expand, together with the forested area.  Transfer our tools and indicators for Stakeholders and Professional sectors (e.g. technical institutes, Agricultural Chambers)

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