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Najafi h 20150709_1500_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_34

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Najafi h 20150709_1500_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_34

  1. 1. Climate Change: Adding Fuel to the Fire of Iran’s Inter-provincial Water Conflicts?  Husain Najafi University of Tehran, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran 1
  2. 2. Outline  Iran’s water sector issues  Current water related challenges at regional level  Future projections under climate change  Exit strategies  Concluding remarks 2 #S3340: Conflicts and Climate Change
  3. 3. Iran’s Water Sector Issues Driving forces and impacts 3 PresentPast
  4. 4. Problem symptom: Changes from past to present In recent ten years, Iran is experiencing significant water challenges that have turned water security to a national priority at the moment. I. Decreasing trend in inter-annual precipitation in many rain gauges II. Increasing evapotranspiration III. Decreasing available surface water resources 4 BCM
  5. 5. Main driving forces of current crisis are (1) Climate variability and change  Changes in precipitation patterns  Hotter climate (2) Human induced  Population growth  Inefficient water consumptive sectors (mainly agriculture)  Aggressive unsustainable developments  Governance structure (e.g. provincial decision making rather than at the watershed scale) 5
  6. 6. Impacts of current water crises  Final Destination of resources under self-optimizing attitudes of users Garrett Hardin (1968) Tragedy of Commons 6
  7. 7. Current water related challenges at regional level 7
  8. 8. Two current hot spots water problems we are now facing … 1) Lake Urmia 2) Karkheh river basin  serious water quantity and quality issues  “The government blames the current crisis on the changing climate, frequent droughts, believing that water shortages are periodic”. (Madani, 2014) 8
  9. 9. Categorized based on the severity of the problem and quantitative water resources challenges in 2001 (Source: Iranian MOE, unpublished data) 9
  10. 10. Categorized based on the severity of the problem and quantitative water resources challenges In 2021 (Source: Iranian MOE, unpublished data) 10
  11. 11. Lake Urmia  The largest enclosed body of water in the north-western Iran  Shared between three littoral provinces namely • Kurdistan • Eastern Azerbaijan • Western Azerbaijan 11 #S3340: Conflicts and Climate Change
  12. 12. The lake is shrinking… 12
  13. 13.  Thirteen main rivers flowing into the lake are all experiencing decreasing surface runoffs in recent fifteen years ranging from 26 to 70 percent compared to their long term average of 1969-1999. 13#S3340: Conflicts and Climate Change
  14. 14. -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014Groundwaterleveldrop Figure 6 Cumulative groundwater level drop at the Lake Urmia River Basin (Source: MOE, 2014, unpublished data) 14 #S3340: Conflicts and Climate Change
  15. 15. Karkheh river basin characteristics ProvinceUrbanRuralTotal Population Population (%) Illam45950981761441264 Khuzestan953221339172292396 Kurdistan5290719424723312 Kirmanshah1177373368260154563342 Lorestan595466437973103343928 Hamadan37315727812365128018 Total234017513358733676048100 15
  16. 16. Water resources challenges in the Karkheh river basin Time series of potential renewable water at Pay pol gauge (from 1953-2012) Changes in observed precipitation (from 1953-2012) MCM 16
  17. 17. Outline Water Resources Challenges from spatiotemporal perspectives…  Iran’s water sector issues  Future Projections under Climate Change  Exit Strategies Iranian policy makers are now following  Concluding remarks 17
  18. 18. Given the cascade of uncertainties associated with climate projection, It is hard to make a firm judgment about the level of increase or decrease for the two watersheds water availability (under climate change) But we have already seen decreasing trend of precipitation and run off in many gauges… Observed runoff (Mean) and the future projection of runoff by A2 and B1 scenarios (Razmara et al., 2013) Monthly distribution of river flow under representative climate change scenarios (Davtalab et al., 2014) Lake Urmia Karkheh 18
  19. 19.  Developing new laws, legislations and guidelines for water resources planning and management  To create water markets  To enable environment capacity development which includes good governance  launching a specialized working group to address climatic change related predicaments  To use other national/regional experiences in how to implement practical solutions for sectoral efficient water management Exit Strategies Iranian policy makers are now following 19
  20. 20.  Conflicts over shared surface water resources will be inevitable if business as usual scenario is continuing. Then other sources will be sought after such as groundwater.  Emerging catastrophic environmental problems (land subsidence, lakes shrinkage and so on…)  Food and water security related challenges Conclusion 20 #S3340: Conflicts and Climate Change
  21. 21. Any question? 21 Email address: husain.najafi@ut.ac.ir

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