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Our Common Future under Climate Change
A Weather-Ready Society
Nobuo Mimura
Ibaraki University
1
1. Society under Increasing Climate-Weather
Risks
2. Shape of a Weather-Ready Society
Structure of Presentation
1. Society under Increasing
Climate-Weather Risks
Impacts attributed to climate change have been widespread
including weather and water disasters.
IPCC 5th Assessment Repor...
Weather and
Water Related
Disasters
in the World
5
+0.85℃
after 1850
+3.7℃
relative to
1986-2005
+1℃
Global Average Temperature Change to 2100
(IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report, 20...
Average
Surface
Temperature
(1986−2005 to
2081−2100)
Average
Precipitation
(IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report, 2014)
Past 2015 2100
Climate and
Hazards
Increasing Climate Change and Climate Variability
• Future society will face two change...
2. Shape of a Weather-Ready Society
A society which can minimize the impacts from climate
change and increasing extreme we...
Factors to Strengthen Resilience
Extremes Long-term
Social/ Institutional
Physical
• Forecast
• Observation
• Monitoring
•...
Factors Related to Resilience
Extremes Long-term
Social/ Institutional
Physical
• Forecast
• Observation
• Monitoring
• Wa...
Historical tsunami hit Japan
in March, 2011
Lessons from the Extraordinary Tsunami Damage in Japan
13
The tsunami overflowed and destroyed coastal dykes
“We need dykes, but
cannot rely on them
alone.”
03691215
800 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 (Year)
Level 2
Level 1
14
1. Maximum-class tsunami (Level 2 Tsunami)
• Priority is o...
Role-sharing of Hard and Soft Measures
1. Hard measures
e.g. dykes, seawalls, water storages
• Can protect peoples lives a...
• Forecast
• Observation
• Monitoring
• Local/ indigenous knowledge
• Early warning system
• International collaboration
I...
Resilience
(Adaptive Capacity)
Mitigation
Adaptation
Past 2015 2100
Climate and
Hazards
Greater rates and magnitude of cli...
Weather-Ready Society
as a Part of Sustainable World
• Key to build a weather-ready society is how to enhance
the society’...
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A Weather-Ready Society, Nobuo Mimura

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Nobuo Mimura (Ibaraki University)

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A Weather-Ready Society, Nobuo Mimura

  1. 1. Our Common Future under Climate Change A Weather-Ready Society Nobuo Mimura Ibaraki University 1
  2. 2. 1. Society under Increasing Climate-Weather Risks 2. Shape of a Weather-Ready Society Structure of Presentation
  3. 3. 1. Society under Increasing Climate-Weather Risks
  4. 4. Impacts attributed to climate change have been widespread including weather and water disasters. IPCC 5th Assessment Report (IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report, 2014)
  5. 5. Weather and Water Related Disasters in the World 5
  6. 6. +0.85℃ after 1850 +3.7℃ relative to 1986-2005 +1℃ Global Average Temperature Change to 2100 (IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report, 2014)
  7. 7. Average Surface Temperature (1986−2005 to 2081−2100) Average Precipitation (IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report, 2014)
  8. 8. Past 2015 2100 Climate and Hazards Increasing Climate Change and Climate Variability • Future society will face two changes; long-term climatic conditions, and extreme weather events • Large regional distribution
  9. 9. 2. Shape of a Weather-Ready Society A society which can minimize the impacts from climate change and increasing extreme weather events. Resilience (Adaptive Capacity) Past 2015 2100 Climate and Hazards Vulnerability
  10. 10. Factors to Strengthen Resilience Extremes Long-term Social/ Institutional Physical • Forecast • Observation • Monitoring • Warning Information DRM Infrastructure • Ecosystem • Structure Insurance/ Financial Planning • Land-use • City planning • Adaptation Decision-making Vulnerability reduction • Human dev. • Poverty • Livelihood Security Technology dev./transfer People’s awareness
  11. 11. Factors Related to Resilience Extremes Long-term Social/ Institutional Physical • Forecast • Observation • Monitoring • Warning Information DRM Infrastructure • Ecosystem • Structure Insurance/ Financial Planning • Land-use • City planning • Adaptation Decision-making Vulnerability reduction • Human dev. • Poverty • Livelihood Security Technology dev./transfer People’s awareness
  12. 12. Historical tsunami hit Japan in March, 2011 Lessons from the Extraordinary Tsunami Damage in Japan
  13. 13. 13 The tsunami overflowed and destroyed coastal dykes “We need dykes, but cannot rely on them alone.”
  14. 14. 03691215 800 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 (Year) Level 2 Level 1 14 1. Maximum-class tsunami (Level 2 Tsunami) • Priority is on saving people’s lives • Warning and evacuation first 2. Relatively frequent tsunami (Level 1 Tsunami) • Protect people’s lives and assets • Design coastal structures to protect inlands Two Targets for Tsunami Protection
  15. 15. Role-sharing of Hard and Soft Measures 1. Hard measures e.g. dykes, seawalls, water storages • Can protect peoples lives and assets. • Cannot protect them against extraordinary extreme events over the design criteria 2. Soft measures e.g. early warning, evacuation, post-disaster relief • Can save human lives during even very severe events • Cannot protect people’s assets and economic activities Role-sharing among range of measures is essential to make the society weather-ready.
  16. 16. • Forecast • Observation • Monitoring • Local/ indigenous knowledge • Early warning system • International collaboration Informed Decision-Making Informed decision-making based on the weather and climate Information is needed to support weather-ready society.
  17. 17. Resilience (Adaptive Capacity) Mitigation Adaptation Past 2015 2100 Climate and Hazards Greater rates and magnitude of climate change increase the likelihood of exceeding adaptation limits. Therefore, a weather- ready society is not only based on adaptation, but also heavily rely on mitigation. Avoid Limits to Adaptation
  18. 18. Weather-Ready Society as a Part of Sustainable World • Key to build a weather-ready society is how to enhance the society’s resilience. • Role-sharing among range of measures is essential to make the society weather-ready. • Informed decision-making based on the weather and climate Information is a part of weather-ready society. • Greater rates and magnitude of climate change increase the likelihood of exceeding adaptation limits. A weather-ready society is not only based on adaptation, but also heavily rely on mitigation. • To ensure safe and secure environment, a weather- ready society is an important part of a sustainable world.
  19. 19. Thank you for your attention!

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