Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
1
China’s Low Carbon Future: 2 degree pathway
Jiang Kejun
Energy Research Institute, China
OCFCC, Paris
July 7 to 10
ERI, ...
2
IPCC AR5 Scenarios
Figure 2. Emission allowances by allocation category for Cat 1, i.e. 425-475
ppmCO2e, in 2030 relative to 2010 emissions (...
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mt-CO2
CO2 Emission in China
Baseline
LC
ELC
2D...
5
What’s the future of China’s low carbon policy: a big picture
• Economic structure optimization policies
• Energy effici...
66
工业分部门投资
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
年份
亿元
建筑业
自来水的生产和供应业...
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
PowerGeneration
Bio
Solar
Wind
Nulcear
Hydro
N.Ga...
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MtSO2
SO2 Emission
BaU
LC
ELC
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
180...
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2005 2010 2020 2030 2050
Index,2005=1
Year
Technology learning curve
Fuel Cell IGCC
Hydrogen Car
P...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

China’s Low Carbon Future: 2 degree pathway, J. Kejun

1,024 views

Published on

J. Kejun (Energy Research Institute , Beijing, China) at the Our Common Future Under Climate Change conference, July 7-10 in Paris, France.

More at http://www.commonfuture-paris2015.org/

Published in: Science
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

China’s Low Carbon Future: 2 degree pathway, J. Kejun

  1. 1. 1 China’s Low Carbon Future: 2 degree pathway Jiang Kejun Energy Research Institute, China OCFCC, Paris July 7 to 10 ERI, ChinaERI, China
  2. 2. 2 IPCC AR5 Scenarios
  3. 3. Figure 2. Emission allowances by allocation category for Cat 1, i.e. 425-475 ppmCO2e, in 2030 relative to 2010 emissions (min, 20th percentile, 80th percentile, max). Number of studies in brackets. GHG emissions (all gases and sectors) in GtCO2e in 1990 and 2010 were OECD90 13.4, 14.2, EIT 8.4, 5.6, ASIA 10.7, 19.9, MAF 3.0, 6.2, LAM 3.3, 3.8 . -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Capability(13) Equality(17) Rescapneed(4) Equalcumulativepercap(4) Staged(10) Costeffectiveness(13) Baseline(22) Capability(13) Equality(17) Rescapneed(4) Equalcumulativepercap(4) Staged(10) Costeffectiveness(13) Baseline(22) Capability(13) Equality(17) Rescapneed(4) Equalcumulativepercap(3) Staged(10) Costeffectiveness(13) Baseline(22) Capability(13) Equality(17) Rescapneed(4) Equalcumulativepercap(3) Staged(10) Costeffectiveness(13) Baseline(22) Capability(13) Equality(16) Rescapneed(4) Equalcumulativepercap(3) Staged(10) Costeffectiveness(13) Baseline(22) Capability(12) Equality(15) Rescapneed(4) Equalcumulativepercap(2) Staged(10) Costeffectiveness(13) Baseline(22) Capability(13) Equality(15) Rescapneed(4) Equalcumulativepercap(0) Staged(10) Costeffectiveness(13) Baseline(22) Capability(13) Equality(16) Rescapneed(4) Equalcumulativepercap(4) Staged(10) Costeffectiveness(13) Baseline(22) Capability(13) Equality(16) Rescapneed(4) Equalcumulativepercap(4) Staged(10) Costeffectiveness(13) Baseline(22) Capability(11) Equality(14) Rescapneed(4) Equalcumulativepercap(3) Staged(8) Costeffectiveness(13) Baseline(16) Emissionallowancesin2030(changefrom2010) NAM EIT LAM MNASSAWEU JPAUNZ SAS EAS PAS
  4. 4. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Mt-CO2 CO2 Emission in China Baseline LC ELC 2Degree Transformation: CO2 emission, a rapid change
  5. 5. 5 What’s the future of China’s low carbon policy: a big picture • Economic structure optimization policies • Energy efficiency policies • Renewable energy/nuclear power generation oriented policies • CCS • Low carbon consumption/ lifestyle • Land use emission reduction policies: so far relatively poor
  6. 6. 66 工业分部门投资 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 年份 亿元 建筑业 自来水的生产和供应业 煤气的生产和供应业 蒸汽热水生产供应业 电力生产供应业 其他工业 仪器仪表文化办公用机械 电气机械及器材、电子及通信设备制造业 交通运输设备制造业 普通机械、专用设备制造业 金属制品业 有色金属 黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业 非金属矿物制品业 橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业 化学纤维制造业 医药制造业 化学原料及制品制造业 炼焦业 石油加工 印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业 造纸及纸制品业 木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业、家具制造业 服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造 纺织业 烟草加工业 食品饮料加工、制造业 非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业 有色金属矿采选业 黑色金属矿采选业 天然气开采业 石油 煤炭采选业 农业 Investment by industrial sectors
  7. 7. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 TWh PowerGeneration Bio Solar Wind Nulcear Hydro N.Gas Oil fired Coal fired
  8. 8. 8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 MtSO2 SO2 Emission BaU LC ELC 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1000ton Black Carbon Emission in China BaU LowCarbon 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Mt NOx Emission in China, ELC scenario Other Power generation 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Mton PM2.5 Emission Other Power generation 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 ton MercuryEmission Other Power generation
  9. 9. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 2005 2010 2020 2030 2050 Index,2005=1 Year Technology learning curve Fuel Cell IGCC Hydrogen Car Poly-Generation Solar Thermal Power PV 4th Generation Nuclear Off shore wind on shore wind Biomass Power Advanced NGCC Electic Car CCS Solar 2010 Wind 2010 CCS-PostC CCS-Enduse LED Lighting Price: US$38000 Subsidy: US$15000(Shanghai), no need to apply number plate(cost US$10000) US$18000(Beijing), no need to apply number plate(By Oct. 2012, 1.1 million people apply for 20000number plates per month), By 2020, Wind 200GW to 250GW, Solar 50WG

×