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India’s Energy and Climate Debate:
Uncertainties in Future Emissions and the
Scope for Co-benefits
Navroz K Dubash
Centre ...
Duality of Indian Climate
Politics Annual
emissions
from energy
(2011)
% of total
Per capita
emissions
from energy
(2011) ...
Fossil Fuel Use and Energy Security
• Fossil Fuel Use in reference
scenarios 2030
– Coal consumption increases by 2.5
– 3 ...
4
Projected Electricity Supply Mix
• Wide variation in 2030
projections
• Coal varies from 56 to 90%
versus 70% in 2012
• ...
5
2030 CO2 Projections
• CO2 emissions
could
increase 2X to
3X
• Per capita
emissions less
than 2011
global
average
• GDP
...
Scope for Co-Benefits?
• A “co-benefits” approach
– “Actions that promote our development efforts
while yielding climate b...
Complementarities between
Climate Mitigation Reduced Air
Pollution and Energy Security
Source: Rao et. al. CPR-IIASA Polic...
Multiple Model Results Confirm
Potential for High Co-benefits
Conclusion
• Indian energy models project a wide range of
2030 emissions and energy supply
characteristics
• Uncertainty m...
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India’s Energy and Climate Debate: Uncertainties in Future Emissions and the Scope for Co-benefits, N. Dubash

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N. Dubash (Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi , India)

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India’s Energy and Climate Debate: Uncertainties in Future Emissions and the Scope for Co-benefits, N. Dubash

  1. 1. India’s Energy and Climate Debate: Uncertainties in Future Emissions and the Scope for Co-benefits Navroz K Dubash Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi Presented at a session on ‘Socio-economics and Instruments for Transforming the Energy Sector’ Our Common Future Under Climate Change Paris, July 9, 2015
  2. 2. Duality of Indian Climate Politics Annual emissions from energy (2011) % of total Per capita emissions from energy (2011) – tonnes CO2 Population % below $2 a day (PPP) (most recent 2000 - 2007) Multi dimensional Poverty Index (MPI) - % of MPI Poor US 16.5 17.1 <2 NA EU (27) 11.4 7.3 <2 NA China 28.0 6.7 36.3 12.5 India 5.8 1.5 75.6 53.7 Brazil 1.4 2.2 9.9 2.7 South Africa 1.2 7.3 35.7 13.4 Bangladesh 0.18 0.37 81.3 57.8
  3. 3. Fossil Fuel Use and Energy Security • Fossil Fuel Use in reference scenarios 2030 – Coal consumption increases by 2.5 – 3 times – Oil use increases 1.5 – 3 times – Gas use increases 2.1 – 3.5 times • But not subject to constraints – Import Dependence – Local environmental harms Import Share 2012 (%) Import share 2030 (%) Coal 26 40-52 Oil 78 88-93 Gas 30 40-70 3 Source: Dubash et. al. CPR_IIASA Research Report 2015
  4. 4. 4 Projected Electricity Supply Mix • Wide variation in 2030 projections • Coal varies from 56 to 90% versus 70% in 2012 • Fossil fuel free share could rise from 20% to 31% or fall to 7% • Nuclear unreasonably aggressive • 15-42 GW capacity addition predicted (5 GW today) • Renewables lower than trend • 2-12% share of 2030 mix • 12-31% under policy scenarios Source: Dubash et. al. CPR-IIASA Research Report 2015
  5. 5. 5 2030 CO2 Projections • CO2 emissions could increase 2X to 3X • Per capita emissions less than 2011 global average • GDP assumptions are a substantial driver Source: Dubash et. al. CPR-IIASA Research Report 2015
  6. 6. Scope for Co-Benefits? • A “co-benefits” approach – “Actions that promote our development efforts while yielding climate benefits…” (India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change) • Limited analysis of how co-benefits affects energy/climate projections 6
  7. 7. Complementarities between Climate Mitigation Reduced Air Pollution and Energy Security Source: Rao et. al. CPR-IIASA Policy Brief 2015
  8. 8. Multiple Model Results Confirm Potential for High Co-benefits
  9. 9. Conclusion • Indian energy models project a wide range of 2030 emissions and energy supply characteristics • Uncertainty may place obstacles to firm economy-wide contributions • Considerable scope for co-benefits based approaches • Sectoral co-benefits policies to ‘bend the curve’ early carry greatest promise 9

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