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Human vulnerability and adaptation to extreme events in rapidly changing rural and urban environments, Jörn Birkmann

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Jörn Birkmann (Institute for Spatial and Regional Planning, Stuttgart, Germany) at the Our Common Future Under Climate Change conference, July 7-10 in Paris, France.

More at http://www.commonfuture-paris2015.org/

Published in: Science
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Human vulnerability and adaptation to extreme events in rapidly changing rural and urban environments, Jörn Birkmann

  1. 1. Institut für Raumordnung und Entwicklungsplanung Universität Stuttgart Human vulnerability and adaptation to extreme events in rapidly changing rural and urban environments Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann/ Director IREUS E-Mail: joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de
  2. 2. www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus Our Common Future Under Climate Change – Paris - 2015 Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann / joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de Impacts from weather and climate events depend on: Nature and severity of event Vulnerability Exposure (Source: IPCC 2012, photos Birkmann) Extreme Events versus Extreme Impacts
  3. 3. www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus Our Common Future Under Climate Change – Paris - 2015 Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann / joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES Socioeconomic Pathways Adaptation and Mitigation Actions Governance CLIMATE Natural Variability Anthropogenic Climate Change RISKHazards Exposure Vulnerability IMPACTS EMISSIONS and Land-use Change The new framework
  4. 4. www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus Our Common Future Under Climate Change – Paris - 2015 Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann / joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de Specific types of urban development and rural-urban migration might increase the exposure of people to floods (example Mekong Delta VN) (Photo: Krause 2012) Increasing exposure of people and assets has been the major cause of changes in disaster losses (IPCC 2012) 4
  5. 5. www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus Our Common Future Under Climate Change – Paris - 2015 Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann / joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de(Photo: Birkmann 2012)
  6. 6. www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus Our Common Future Under Climate Change – Paris - 2015 Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann / joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de(Photo: Birkmann 2012) Exposure is one factor of increasing risk due to climate change, but not the only one (see also IPCC 2012) Exposure and vulnerability are dynamic Adaptation programmes and risk management strategies have better to account for these dynamics, e.g. migration and land-use changes - Adaptation needs to address linkages e.g. between rural and urban areas – migration (HCMC and Mekong Delta) - Land-use changes and - Changes in livelihood strategies
  7. 7. www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus Our Common Future Under Climate Change – Paris - 2015 Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann / joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de Vulnerability Dimensions  Coping capacities  Adaptive capacities  Resilience building Capacities (Photos: Birkmann 2008)  Social dimension (e.g. housing conditions, poverty, lack of social networks)  Economic dimension (property loss, lack of insurances)  Environmental dimension (e.g. environmental services)  Cultural dimension (risk perception)  Institutional dimension (e.g. governance) Vulnerability has to be addressed in different dimensions (IPCC 2012, p. 70-88)
  8. 8. www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus Our Common Future Under Climate Change – Paris - 2015 Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann / joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de Contrary to the hazard, vulnerability and exposure can often be influenced by policy and decision making
  9. 9. www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus Our Common Future Under Climate Change – Paris - 2015 Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann / joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de 9 Typhoon Linda + 4 Scenarios considering changes in a) topography, b) sea-level-rise c) flooding and d) storm surges Source: Hoa et al. 2007
  10. 10. www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus Our Common Future Under Climate Change – Paris - 2015 Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann / joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de Coping and adaptation strategies from the past might not be sufficient for the future • Thyphoon Linda November 1997 was not an extreme storm (100km/h on 2nd November), however, it causes about 500-3000 fatalities and large economic losses in Vietnam. • Storms are very rare so far in the VN Mekong Delta region, however, thyphoon tracks might move further south under Climate Change
  11. 11. www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus Our Common Future Under Climate Change – Paris - 2015 Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann / joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de Linking National and Local Perspectives • The national level plays a key role in governing and managing disaster risk because national government is central to providing risk management-related public goods … (IPCC 2012, p. 341) • Adaptation strategies and risk reduction measures need to be informed by and linked with local approaches and local knowledge. Various adaptation measures conducted in the past are not adaptive for the future. (Photos: Birkmann 2008)
  12. 12. www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus Our Common Future Under Climate Change – Paris - 2015 Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann / joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de Shifts in land-use patterns and livelihood strategies modify the benefits of adaptation measures The main challenge for local adaptation to climate extremes is to apply a balanced portfolio of approaches as a one-size-fits all strategy may prove limiting for some places and stakeholders. (IPCC 2012, p. 295) New conflicts emerge, when changes in livelihood strategies and land-use patterns might require different adaptation strategies compared to the past (Photos: Birkmann 2011; Map Source: Garschagen et al. 2012)
  13. 13. www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus Our Common Future Under Climate Change – Paris - 2015 Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann / joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de Conclusions • Vulnerability and risk assessment as well as adaptation strategies need to combine and triangulate different data and knowledge sources as well as methodologies. This is still a challenge in a strongly disciplinary structured context. • Various climate impact assessments fall short in addressing the dynamics of socio-economic development that largely determine future exposure and vulneraiblity patterns • Human-environmental systems as well as livelihood strategies of people at risk are dynamic and change over time. Consequently, adaptation strategies need to go beyond the proteciton of exisitng livelihood strategies and patterns. • Transformative change (land-use change, urbanization) is visible in various regions highly at risk due to climate change. However, whether these trends and changes lead to improved resilience is still to be seen.
  14. 14. www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus Our Common Future Under Climate Change – Paris - 2015 Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann / joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de Selected Literature IPCC (2012) : Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation; Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press Birkmann, J.; Welle, T.; Krause, D.; Wolfertz, J.; Suarez, D.C.; Setiadi, N. (2011): WorldRiskIndex: Concept and Results. In: Alliance Development Works (ed.): The WorldRiskReport 2011, Berlin: 13-42 Birkmann, J.; Cutter, S.; Rothman, D.; Welle, T.; Garschagen, M.; van Ruijven, B.; O’Neill, B.; Preston, B.; Kienberger , S.; Cardona, O.; Siagian, T.; Hidayati, D.; Setiadi, N.; Binder, C.; Hughes, B.; Pulwarty, R. (2013) Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk. Climatic Change (DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0913-2) Garschagen, Matthias and Romero-Lankao, P. (2013). Exploring the relationships between urbanization trends and climate change vulnerability. Climatic Change, online first Birkmann, J.; Buckle, P., Jaeger, J.; Pelling, M.; Setiadi, N.; Garschagen, M.; Fernando, N.; Kropp, J. (2010): Extreme Events and Disasters: A Window of Opportunity for Change? Analysis of Changes, Formal and Informal Responses After Mega-Disasters, Natural Hazards 55(3): 637-655 Birkmann, J; Garschagen, M.; Von Van, T.; Nguyen Thanh, B. (2012): Vulnerability, Coping and Adaptation to Water Related Hazards in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. In: Renaud, F.G.; Kuenzer, C. (eds.): The Mekong Delta System: Interdisciplinary Analyses of a River Delta, Springer, New York: 245-289 Birkmann, J. (2011): First and Second-Order Adaptation to Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Context of Climate Change. Natural Hazards 58(2): 811-840; Garschagen, M.; Diez, J.R; Nhan, D.K.; Kraas, F. (2012): Socio-Economic Development in the Mekong Delta: Between the Prospects for Progress and the Realms of Reality, In: Renaud, F.G.; Kuenzer, C. (eds.): The Mekong Delta System: Interdisciplinary Analyses of a River Delta, Springer, New York: 83-132
  15. 15. www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus Our Common Future Under Climate Change – Paris - 2015 Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann / joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de Thank YOU Univ. Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jörn BIRKMANN Director Institute for Spatial Planning and Regional Development University of Stuttgart Pfaffenwaldring 7 70569 Stuttgart GERMANY Phone: ++ 49 (0)711 685-66333 Fax: ++ 49 (0)711 685-66965 www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus Joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de

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