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Future landscapes of
crop water supply and demand
1
Food and water security under climate change
International Scientific ...
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
 OBJECTIVE: The ultimate objective of this
Convention and any related legal instruments t...
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
2,2
2,4
2,6
2,8
3
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Population
Agricultural Are...
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 4
Trade-offs
More food  more water & energy
More food & less water & less energy
 more...
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 5
Global water resources model H08
Human
Activity
Natural
Water
Cycle
11
Total: 15,238 ...
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 6
Enhancement of the H08 model
Large reservoirs
(1.0 x 109m3 ≤S)
4140km3
Medium-sized rese...
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 7
農作物の「供給源別」水消費量
Fossil
ground
water
River
Middle size
reservoir
Share of precipitation (g...
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 8
Global flows of virtual water export
Virtual water export (total)
Virtual water export (...
High Stress Low StressMedium Stress
Annual basis
∑daily withdrawal (simulated)
∑daily demand (simulated)
Water resources a...
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 10Hanasaki et al., 2013a,b, Hydrol. Earth Sys. Sci.
Region-wise total global population li...
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 11
Future projections on food and water should
consider both social and climate changes.
...
AR5 WGII Ch3 (CLA)
AR4 WGII Ch3 (LA)
AR5 WGII (SPM/TS CWT)
SREX Ch8 (LA)
http://www.climatechange2013.org/
http://ipcc-wg2...
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Future landscapes of crop water supply and demand, Taikan OKI

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Taikan OKI (Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo) at the Our Common Future Under Climate Change conference, July 7-10 in Paris, France.

More at http://www.commonfuture-paris2015.org/

Published in: Science
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Future landscapes of crop water supply and demand, Taikan OKI

  1. 1. Future landscapes of crop water supply and demand 1 Food and water security under climate change International Scientific Conference: Our Common Future under Climate Change 8th July 2015, Paris, France Taikan OKI Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo Naota Hanasaki National Institute for Environmental Studies special thanks to Drs. Yadu Pokhrel (MSU), Hyungjun Kim, and Mr. Yusuke Sato (IIS/UTokyo)
  2. 2. http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/  OBJECTIVE: The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. 2 UNFCCC Article 2
  3. 3. http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2 2,2 2,4 2,6 2,8 3 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Population Agricultural Area Area equipped for irrigation Yield (Cereals) Production (Cereals) Food Supply (tonnes) Food Supply (kcal/c/d) 3 Ratioto1961value World Cropland and Food Supply “irrigated land, which is 16% of cropland, produces 40% of crops” (based on FAOSTAT & AQUASTAT; see Oki and Kanae 2006, Science)
  4. 4. http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 4 Trade-offs More food  more water & energy More food & less water & less energy  more labor More food & less water, energy, and labor  more land (related to ecosystems) More food & less water, energy, labor, and land  ??
  5. 5. http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 5 Global water resources model H08 Human Activity Natural Water Cycle 11 Total: 15,238 grids •Requirements 1. Simulate both water availability (streamflow) and water use at daily-basis 2. Deal with interaction between natural hydrological cycle and anthropogenic activities 3. Applicable for future climate change simulation 452 reservoirs, 4140 km3 Hanasaki et al., 2006, J. of Hydrol. Hanasaki et al. ,2008a,b, Hydrol. Earth Sys. Sci. Hanasaki et al., 2010, J. of Hydrol. Hanasaki et al., 2013a,b, Hydrol. Earth Sys. Sci.
  6. 6. http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 6 Enhancement of the H08 model Large reservoirs (1.0 x 109m3 ≤S) 4140km3 Medium-sized reservoirs (3.0 x 106m3≤S< 1.0 x 109m3) 3280km3 Hanasaki et al., 2010, J. of Hydrol.
  7. 7. http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 7 農作物の「供給源別」水消費量 Fossil ground water River Middle size reservoir Share of precipitation (green water) in consumptive water use Fossil ground water Middle size reservoir (Hanasaki et. al, J. Hydrol. , 2010)
  8. 8. http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 8 Global flows of virtual water export Virtual water export (total) Virtual water export (irrigation) Virtual water export (Nonlocal/Nonrenewable Blue Water) Total 545km3 yr-1 Total 61km3 yr-1 Total 26km3 yr-1 Total water withdrawal:3,800km3yr-1 Agricultural 2,660 Domestic 380 Industrial 770 Shiklomanov, 2000 (Hanasaki et. al, J. Hydrol. , 2010)
  9. 9. High Stress Low StressMedium Stress Annual basis ∑daily withdrawal (simulated) ∑daily demand (simulated) Water resources assessment Daily basis Annual water use (statistics) Annual river discharge (simulation) Index= Index= High stress 0.4≤Index Medium stress 0.1≤index<0.4 Low stress Index<0.1 High stress Index<0.5 Medium stress 0.5≤index<0.8 Low stress 0.8≤Index demand availability jan dec 1 + 2 + 7 +4 + 3 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 1 + 2 + 2 +2 + 3 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 ≤1 deficit withdrawal Hanasaki et al., 2006, J. of Hydrol. Hanasaki et al. ,2008a,b, Hydrol. Earth Sys. Sci. 9
  10. 10. http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 10Hanasaki et al., 2013a,b, Hydrol. Earth Sys. Sci. Region-wise total global population living in grid cells where CAD (Cumulative Abstraction to Demand) ratio <0.5. The bars on the left and right show the results of HUM-BAU (no climate policy) and HUM-Policy (with climate policy), respectively.
  11. 11. http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ 11 Future projections on food and water should consider both social and climate changes. Changes in both climate system and socioeconomic processes, including mitigation and adaptation, are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. Impacts on food system should be assessed. “Adaptation and mitigation choices in the near- term will affect the risks in the 21st century.” Should be/can be integrated into securing food supply, water resources management, land planning, disaster risk management, and sustainable development. Remarks
  12. 12. AR5 WGII Ch3 (CLA) AR4 WGII Ch3 (LA) AR5 WGII (SPM/TS CWT) SREX Ch8 (LA) http://www.climatechange2013.org/ http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WG2AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf Thank You!

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