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Strategic Approaches for
Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation
of Species and Ecosystems
Wendy Foden
Chair: IUCN SSC Climate...
Parmesan,
1996, Nature
First evidence of climate change
impacts on species:
Edith’s Checkerspot Butterfly
Extinct
Extant
“...
Which changes should we assist?
Which should we slow or prevent?
Which should we initiate?
HOW?
Steps for Developing
Climate Change Adaptation Strategies
Adapted from Glick, Stein & Edelson, 2011
1. Identify
Conservati...
Steps for Developing
Climate Change Adaptation Strategies
Adapted from Glick, Stein & Edelson, 2011
1. Identify
Conservati...
Steps for Developing
Climate Change Adaptation Strategies
Adapted from Glick, Stein & Edelson, 2011
1. Identify
Conservati...
Climate
change
impacts on
species are
many,
complex and
interacting
Foden et al, 2008
Approaches for Assessing Climate Change
Vulnerability of Species
Pacifici et al., Nature Climate Change, 2014
Mocking Cliff-chat (Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris)
Present 2055
• Present only • Present and future • Future only
1. Correl...
Midgley et al 2002
Projected 2050 Range Centroid Shifts of
Proteaceae in the Cape Floral Region
Approaches for assessing c...
Climate
change
impacts on
species are
many,
complex and
interacting
Approaches for assessing climate change vulnerability ...
Over half of sub-Saharan African amphibians have ranges too small to
model using correlational approaches, including 94% o...
Approaches for assessing climate change vulnerability of species
Correlative Approach
Geographical and taxonomic biases
Co...
Approaches for Assessing Climate Change
Vulnerability of Species
Pacifici et al., Nature Climate Change, 2014
2. Mechanistic Approach
Use known
physiological
tolerances
To calibrate
niche models
To model
meta-
population
dynamics
Un...
VULNERABLE
3. Trait-Based Approach
Approaches for assessing climate change vulnerability of species
Foden et al, PLOS ONE, 2013
Birds
Amphibians
Corals
(warm-water
reef-
building)
IUCN’s Trait-based Assessment of
Climate C...
Approaches for Assessing Climate Change
Vulnerability of Species
Willis et al., Biological Conservation, 2015
Challenges for All Approaches
1. Geographical
and
taxonomic
biases
Concentrations of GBIF
species distribution records:
20...
Policy-makers Practitioners
?Science
IUCN SSC Guidelines
on
Selecting and Using
Approaches
for
Assessing
Vulnerability of
Species
to Climate Change
Steps for Developing
Climate Change Adaptation Strategies
Adapted from Glick, Stein & Edelson, 2011
1. Identify
Conservati...
Land and
water
protection &
management
 Protected areas:
 Increase extent
 Improve representation and replication withi...
We need an evidence base to support decisions
about climate change adaptation
Biodiversity conservation; ecosystem-based a...
Conclusions: Strategies for Enhancing Adaptation
1) Shift from preservationist approaches to managed change and maintainin...
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions,
thereby limiting the rate and magnitude of climate change,
is the most certain way to m...
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Strategic Approaches for Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation of Species and Ecosystems, W. Foden

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W. Foden (Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute, Gauteng, South Africa) at the Our Common Future Under Climate Change conference, July 7-10 in Paris, France.

More at http://www.commonfuture-paris2015.org/

Published in: Science
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Strategic Approaches for Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation of Species and Ecosystems, W. Foden

  1. 1. Strategic Approaches for Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation of Species and Ecosystems Wendy Foden Chair: IUCN SSC Climate Change Specialist Group University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
  2. 2. Parmesan, 1996, Nature First evidence of climate change impacts on species: Edith’s Checkerspot Butterfly Extinct Extant “Fingerprints of climate change”
  3. 3. Which changes should we assist? Which should we slow or prevent? Which should we initiate? HOW?
  4. 4. Steps for Developing Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Adapted from Glick, Stein & Edelson, 2011 1. Identify Conservation Target(s) 2. Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change 4. Implement Management Options 3. Identify Management Options Monitor, Review, Revise
  5. 5. Steps for Developing Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Adapted from Glick, Stein & Edelson, 2011 1. Identify Conservation Target(s) 2. Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change 4. Implement Management Options 3. Identify Management Options Monitor, Review, Revise Species Communities Ecosystems
  6. 6. Steps for Developing Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Adapted from Glick, Stein & Edelson, 2011 1. Identify Conservation Target(s) 2. Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change 4. Implement Management Options 3. Identify Management Options Monitor, Review, Revise Species Communities Ecosystems Poiani et al, Biodiv Conservation, 2010: Of 20 biodiversity projects that evaluated climate change vulnerability, 12 found that their project focus, focal ecosystems or species, or project boundaries needed to change
  7. 7. Climate change impacts on species are many, complex and interacting Foden et al, 2008
  8. 8. Approaches for Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Species Pacifici et al., Nature Climate Change, 2014
  9. 9. Mocking Cliff-chat (Thamnolaea cinnamomeiventris) Present 2055 • Present only • Present and future • Future only 1. Correlative Approach Approaches for assessing climate change vulnerability of species
  10. 10. Midgley et al 2002 Projected 2050 Range Centroid Shifts of Proteaceae in the Cape Floral Region Approaches for assessing climate change vulnerability of species Correlative Approach
  11. 11. Climate change impacts on species are many, complex and interacting Approaches for assessing climate change vulnerability of species Correlative Approach
  12. 12. Over half of sub-Saharan African amphibians have ranges too small to model using correlational approaches, including 94% of those threatened with extinction.” “Conservation implications of omitting rare and threatened species from climate change impact modelling” Platts et al., Diversity & Distributions, 2014 Correlational models require at least 10 species distribution points/localities to meet statistical requirements Approaches for assessing climate change vulnerability of species Correlative Approach
  13. 13. Approaches for assessing climate change vulnerability of species Correlative Approach Geographical and taxonomic biases Concentrations of GBIF species distribution records: 2010-2015 Number of climate change vulnerability assessment studies (Pacifici et al. Nature Climate Change, 2014) Thomas et al., Nature, 2004 Fischlin et al., IPCC AR4, 2007 Warren et al., Nature Climate Change, 2013
  14. 14. Approaches for Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Species Pacifici et al., Nature Climate Change, 2014
  15. 15. 2. Mechanistic Approach Use known physiological tolerances To calibrate niche models To model meta- population dynamics Under changing habitat suitability (climate + fire + SLR +land use + stochasticity, etc.) ++ + e.g. Fordham et al., Nature Climate Change, 2013, for Iberian Lynx Approaches for assessing climate change vulnerability of species
  16. 16. VULNERABLE 3. Trait-Based Approach Approaches for assessing climate change vulnerability of species
  17. 17. Foden et al, PLOS ONE, 2013 Birds Amphibians Corals (warm-water reef- building) IUCN’s Trait-based Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability of the World’s Birds, Amphibians and Corals (16,857 spp) Biological Susceptibility Exposure
  18. 18. Approaches for Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Species Willis et al., Biological Conservation, 2015
  19. 19. Challenges for All Approaches 1. Geographical and taxonomic biases Concentrations of GBIF species distribution records: 2010-2015 Number of climate change vulnerability assessment studies (Pacifici et al. Nature Climate Change, 2014) Approaches for assessing climate change vulnerability of species 2. Most approaches fail to assess the impacts of human responses to climate change 3. Need greater focus on validating projected climate change impacts using observed species responses
  20. 20. Policy-makers Practitioners ?Science
  21. 21. IUCN SSC Guidelines on Selecting and Using Approaches for Assessing Vulnerability of Species to Climate Change
  22. 22. Steps for Developing Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Adapted from Glick, Stein & Edelson, 2011 1. Identify Conservation Target(s) 2. Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change 4. Implement Management Options 3. Identify Management Options Monitor, Review, Revise
  23. 23. Land and water protection & management  Protected areas:  Increase extent  Improve representation and replication within them  Improve management and restoration – resilience  Design new natural areas and restoration sites  Protect movement corridors, stepping stones and refugia  Manage and restore ecosystem function  Improve matrix by increasing landscape permeability to species movement Direct species management  Focus conservation resources on species that might become extinct  Translocate species at risk of extinction  Establish captive populations of species that would otherwise go extinct  Reduce non-climatic stressors Monitoring & planning  Evaluate and enhance monitoring programmes  Incorporate climate change impacts into management plans  Develop dynamic landscape conservation plans  Ensure biodiversity needs are considered as part of broader societal adaptation Law & policy  Review and modify existing laws, regulations and policies regarding wildlife and natural resources management Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Conserving Biodiversity Mawdsley et al. 2009 Do they work? In which time frames are they effective? Under which circumstances are they effective? Under which circumstances are they maladaptive?
  24. 24. We need an evidence base to support decisions about climate change adaptation Biodiversity conservation; ecosystem-based adaptation; disaster risk reduction; water catchment management; etc. Possible information sources: • Peer reviewed literature • Grey literature • Donor-required reporting • Self-reporting Centralised Analysed Distributed Challenges: • What does a successful outcome look like? • Over what time frames do you measure outcomes of interventions?
  25. 25. Conclusions: Strategies for Enhancing Adaptation 1) Shift from preservationist approaches to managed change and maintaining function 2) There are concerning gaps in communication between scientists and practitioners 3) Accuracies of all climate change vulnerability assessment approaches need to be tested using observed biodiversity changes 4) Human responses to climate change must be considered in assessments of climate change vulnerability of biodiversity 5) Climate change adaptation practice is in its infancy. We need to set in place processes now to promote rapid evidence-led learning from our successes and errors
  26. 26. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions, thereby limiting the rate and magnitude of climate change, is the most certain way to minimise serious and irreversible biodiversity loss. Our potential to enhance climate change adaptation of biodiversity through conservation is finite

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