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Climate change impact on heat-related mortality under some RCP scenario, Yasushi Honda, Ho Kim

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Y. Honda (University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan), H. Kim (Seoul National University, SEOUL, Republic of Korea), at the Our Common Future Under Climate Change conference, July 7-10 in Paris, France.

More at http://www.commonfuture-paris2015.org/

Published in: Science
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Climate change impact on heat-related mortality under some RCP scenario, Yasushi Honda, Ho Kim

  1. 1. Climate change impact on heat-related mortality under some RCP scenario Yasushi Honda (University of Tsukuba) Ho Kim (Seoul National University) July 8, , 2015
  2. 2. Contents • Background • Methods • Results • Discussion Acknowledgements:This study was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S8 & S10) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, and the Global Research Laboratory (grant K21004000001-10A0500- 00710) through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF), funded by the Ministry of Education, Science, and Technology, Korea.
  3. 3. Background : ICA-RUS project • proposes strategies for the global-scale management of climate change risks 1. Analysis of critical climate change risks 2. Analysis of strategies for optimal use of land, water and ecosystems for climate change risk management 3. Evaluation of options for climate change risk management 4. application of science and technology studies to issues of climate change risk management http://www.nies.go.jp/ica-rus/en/link.html
  4. 4. Methods: Risk function http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/quantitative-risk-assessment/en/ Daily maximum temperature – Optimum temperature Relativemortality 65+ age group, only All age groups, combined
  5. 5. Methods: GCMs & Scenarios • Baseline: 1981-2000 • Target: 2020s, 2050s, 2080s • RCP: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 • SSP: 1, 2, 3 • GCM: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL- CM5A, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, Noresm1-M Note: SSP-specific mortatlity was calculated based on IIASA population projections
  6. 6. Some results Strategy-specific heat-related mortality by SSP By 2100, the increases from pre-industrial period are: 1.5C for T15 etc.
  7. 7. Some results 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 SSP1 current climate SSP1 2020s(rcp2.6) SSP1 2020s(rcp4.5) SSP1 2020s(rcp6.0) SSP1 2020s(rcp8.5) SSP1 2050s(rcp2.6) SSP1 2050s(rcp4.5) SSP1 2050s(rcp6.0) SSP1 2050s(rcp8.5) SSP1 2080s(rcp2.6) Heat-related mortality by area, SSP and period (GFDL-ESM2M)
  8. 8. Some results 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 AP_HI As_C As_E As_S As_SE Asia (GFDL-ESM2M, RCP2.6) current climate 2020s 2050s 2080s 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 AP_HI As_C As_E As_S As_SE Asia (GFDL-ESM2M, RCP8.5) current climate 2020s 2050s 2080s
  9. 9. Discussion From 2014 WHO book(but same for this presentation): • Developed countries areNOT immune to climate change impacts, especially with multiple disaster cases, e.g., flood + heatwave or power-shutdown + heatwave.
  10. 10. Future direction NCS: natural cubic spline, STHR: single high threshold Seposo et al. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health (2015) Tropical region with very small annual variation Manila, Philippines
  11. 11. Thank you for your attention! 2+ years since IPCC WG2 meeting in Buenos Aires, when she was born. More likely than not, she will live to see the 22nd Century.

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