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Climate and Development ‘Conflict’? Asking the Right Questions, N. Rao

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N. Rao (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria) at the Our Common Future Under Climate Change conference, July 7-10 in Paris, France.

More at http://www.commonfuture-paris2015.org/

Published in: Science

Climate and Development ‘Conflict’? Asking the Right Questions, N. Rao

  1. 1. Climate and Development ‘Conflict’? Asking the Right Questions Narasimha D. Rao Our Common Future, Paris July 8, 2015
  2. 2. IPCC AR5, WGIII, Ch. 4 Climate Mitigation AND Development Narasimha D. Rao
  3. 3. From Poverty eradication to Climate Change Energy Poverty GHG Pathways Poverty eradication Narasimha D. Rao
  4. 4. What consumption patterns will accompany rising income? Narasimha D. Rao
  5. 5. An average family in Havana, Cuba… Peter Menzel, Material World: A Global Family PortraitNarasimha D. Rao
  6. 6. in Tokyo, Japan… Peter Menzel, Material World: A Global Family PortraitNarasimha D. Rao
  7. 7. In Muang Wa, Thailand… Peter Menzel, Material World: A Global Family PortraitNarasimha D. Rao
  8. 8. In American Canyon, California Peter Menzel, Material World: A Global Family PortraitNarasimha D. Rao
  9. 9. How will energy-intensive consumption be distributed across populations? Narasimha D. Rao
  10. 10. Narasimha D. Rao
  11. 11. Narasimha D. Rao
  12. 12. From Poverty eradication to Climate Change Energy Poverty GHG Pathways Poverty eradication Narasimha D. Rao
  13. 13. Water ElectricityFood Sanitation Rao, Riahi, Grubler, Nature Cl. Ch., 2014 GDP poor indicator of the human development-climate change link GDP 1990 2000 2008 Narasimha D. Rao
  14. 14. 2°C World Constrains Energy Growth CO2 from Energy (GTons) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Global Energy Assessment, IIASA Developing Countries’ Emissions Pathways (2˚C) Narasimha D. Rao Steckel et al., 2013 Baseline 450ppm Final Energy 2050
  15. 15. Human Development Index Energy (GJ)/ capita OECD 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 0 100 200 300 Sub-Saharan Africa/ South & East Asia Household Energy Access Affluence 10010 Energy for Basic Development Narasimha D. Rao
  16. 16. Energy for Basic Development Final Primary 10 GJ/cap 100 GJ/cap 100 Poland 2005 Basic Access Cooking, Lighting Goldemberg et al. 1 kW End-use efficiency 50-70 Smil HDI 2 kW Society World Avg 80 Jiahua (China) Decent Living Narasimha D. Rao
  17. 17. (Final) Energy Consumption 2010-2050 Lamb & Rao, Glob. Env. ChNarasimha D. Rao
  18. 18. A Glimpse of India
  19. 19. Life expectancy: 70 yrs is 100%; Hospital beds: 2 per 1000 is 100%; Year 2010/11, except Education and Paved road access (2005) and food (2008); China data on TV is avg per household, not access penetration 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Modern Cook Stove Electricity for lighting Own a Television Own a Telephone Own a Refrigerator Primary Enrolment Secondary Enrolment Life Expectancy (at birth) Hospital Beds/1000 Paved Road Access Permanent Roof In-house Sanitation In-house Drinking Water Adequate Calories Household Community National China/India Living Conditions Narasimha D. Rao
  20. 20. India Development Status Narasimha D. Rao 124th 135th 150th GDP (p.c, PPP) HDI Sanitation Access (%)
  21. 21. India Energy Poverty Narasimha D. Rao Source: India National Sample Consumption Expenditure Survey 2010-11
  22. 22. Outage Share (rural) Rao, 2013 Electricification 2004-05 IND_adm1 IND_adm1.ElAccShare 16 to 40 percent 40 to 75 percent 75 to 90 percent 90 - 100 percent Pop’n with Access India Energy Poverty Narasimha D. Rao
  23. 23. CO2– National modeling studies’ view Dubash Khosla Rao Sharma 2015 Narasimha D. Rao
  24. 24. Dubash Khosla Rao Sharma 2015 Narasimha D. Rao CO2– National modeling studies’ view
  25. 25. Reference 450 ppm CO2– IAM studies’ view Narasimha D. Rao
  26. 26. MTOE Coal – National modeling studies’ view 2030 Dubash Khosla Rao Sharma 2015 Narasimha D. Rao
  27. 27. MTOE Coal – IAM studies’ view 450 ppm 2030 Narasimha D. Rao
  28. 28. Development Co-benefits (IAM studies) Rao McCollum Dubash Khosla 2015 Narasimha D. Rao
  29. 29. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 US 2009 (812 vehicles per 1000) Netherlands 2009 (480 vehicles per 1000) India 2030 (56 vehicles per 1000) China 2030 (127 vehicles per 1000) China 2009 (33 vehicles per 1000) India 2009 (18 vehicles per 1000) S. Asia 18%71%5%4% 2% Rao et al, 2009; International Energy Agency Transport – Challenge for Leapfrogging Narasimha D. Rao
  30. 30. • Urban form and transport • High efficiency appliances • Building design • Equitable growth Low-carbon Opportunities/Challenges Narasimha D. Rao
  31. 31. THANK YOU nrao@iiasa.ac.at

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