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Briggs s 20150707_1630_unesco_fontenoy_-_room_xi

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Briggs s 20150707_1630_unesco_fontenoy_-_room_xi

  1. 1. The Importance of Climate Observations from Space Prof. Stephen Briggs European Space Agency
  2. 2. Credit: Victor & Kennel, Nature Climate Change, 2014. The importance of observations………
  3. 3. Global Climate Observations – history • Flamsteed, Cassini (c.1650-1700) • Humboldt (1769-1859) • Maury and the Brussels Conference (1853) • International Meteorological Org. (1873) • International Polar Years and IGY (1957) • World Weather Watch and GARP (1967) • World Climate Conference (1979) and the World Climate Programme • Villach (1985), Brundtland (1987) and the IPCC (1988) • World Climate Conference-2 (1990)
  4. 4. Second World Climate Conference (WCC-2) Ministerial Session
  5. 5. UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (May 1992) Article 4 Commitments Article 5 Research and Systematic Observation All Parties shall: 1(g) Promote and cooperate in scientific, technological, technical, socio- economic and other research, systematic observation and development of data archives related to the climate system………. In carrying out their commitments under Article 4, paragraph 1(g), the Parties shall: (a) Support and further develop…programs and networks or organizations aimed at defining, conducting, assessing and financing research, data collection and systematic observation, taking into account the need to minimize duplication of effort; (b) Support international and intergovernmental efforts to strengthen systematic observation….particularly in developing countries, and to promote access to, and the exchange of, data and analyses thereof……
  6. 6. GCOS Essential Climate Variables
  7. 7. GCOS Essential Climate Variables
  8. 8. Road Map for 2014 to 2016 WCRP Conference 2011 Status report 2014 2015 2016 COP21 COP22COP20 New Plan August October For Public Review Draft of Finalisation Summer Finalisation SPARC Data Workshop 2013 IPCC AR5 2013/2014 UNFCCC National Reports GCOS AOPC TOPC OOPC GEO Work Plan Symposium (April 2014) WIGOS Planning IOC GOOS Planning Space Architecture–ECV Inv. ESA CCI QA4ECVCORE-CLIMAX GCOS Adaptation Workshop 2013 GCOS GOFC-GOLD Mitigation Workshop (5-7 May 2014) WCRP-IPCC WG I Workshop (Sep 2014) GCOS-IPCC WG II and DRR Workshop (Nov 2014) WCRP WDAC (May 2014) CEOS-CGMS Response Report to SBSTA41 on status Report to SBSTA43 Report to SBSTA45 Submission of new Pla EUMETSAT-WCRP Climate Symposium (Oct 2014)
  9. 9. GCOS Planning and documents
  10. 10. First image of the Earth from space
  11. 11. ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use
  12. 12. ESA Climate Change Initiative
  13. 13. System Context F C D R F C D R F C D R Satellites Ground Segments CCI Climate Data Users Level 1b Level 1b Level 1b Level 1b Level 1b Level 1b Level 1b Climate Reanalysis Climate Modellers ECV DP ECV DP ECV DP ESA NASA Eumetsat NOAA Jaxa … Others Climate Services
  14. 14. Scope of extended CCI
  15. 15. CCI Products Time Coverage (Current) Cloud Ozone Aerosol GHG Sea Ice Sea Level SST Ocean Colour Glaciers Ice Sheet Land Cover Fire Soil Moisture 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2 1 8 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 2-3 measurements per glacier over the period 4 1
  16. 16. The Climate Change Initiative in IPCC AR5 WGI Results from the CCI are cited in AR5, notably: • CCI Glaciers played a leading role in creating the first globally-complete glacier inventory, the Randolph Glacier Inventory. • CCI Sea Level produced improved Global Mean Sea Level estimates using Envisat data. • The Ice sheets Mass Balance Intercomparison Exercise, involving CCI Ice Sheets, has led to improved confidence in the measurement of ice sheet mass balance and the associated global sea level contribution. Further CCI projects are also cited in the report: Glaciers_cci • Observations: Cryosphere • Sea Level Change Greenhouse_Gases_cci • Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles Ice_Sheets_cci • Observations: Cryosphere • Sea Level Change Sea_Level_cci • Observations: Cryosphere • Sea Level Change Ozone_cci • Evaluation of Climate Models Sea_Surface_Temperature_cci • Observations: Atmosphere and Surface Soil_Moisture_cci • Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
  17. 17. 1990 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 -300 -350 Icemassloss(Gt/yr) -400 Previous surveys: Antarctica imbie Gravimetry Radar Altimetry Interferometry Laser altimetry 1mm
  18. 18. 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 -300 -350 1990 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Icemassloss(Gt/yr) -400 Previous surveys: Greenland imbie Gravimetry Radar Altimetry Interferometry Laser altimetry 1mm
  19. 19. 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 0 Combined Greenland Antarctica Increased ice sheet mass losses 10 8 6 4 2 12 0.27 mm per yr 0.95 mm per year imbie Sealevelcontribution(mm)
  20. 20. CryoSat: Yearly Ice Loss in Greenland Courtesy: Helm et al. (2014) Digital Elevation Model 2003-2008 2011-2012 IMBIE CryoSat -189±20 km3/yr -352±29 km3/yr
  21. 21. • Unique (first ever) combination of S1A stripmap and TerraSAR-X SAR data provides first map of Austfonna ice speed in 2014 • Data show that glacier at Cap Mohn has experienced a rapid acceleration Ice Speed (kilometres per year) 0 4 1995 (ERS) 2008 (ALOS) 2014 (TSX-S1) Credit: N. Gourmelen, University of Edinburgh Sentinel-1A: Svalbard Ice Cap
  22. 22. Glacier area Inventory Elevation change dh/dt trends from altimetry mean changes from DEM differencing Velocity Displacement Vectors Glacier products
  23. 23. 7/10/201523
  24. 24. Climate Impact on Marine Ecosystem State Impact of El Niño variability on ocean primary producers Impact on Phytoplankton Indicators: • Chlorophyll • Primary Production • Phenology (bloom timing, growth duration) Change in forcing: • Climate Index • El Niño variability Primary Production 0 +10 -10 % change Growth duration 0 +50 -50 % change Racault et al., In prep. ESA Living Planet Fellowship 2015-2017Capotondi et al., JAS 2014 Eastern Pacific El Niño Central Pacific El Niño The impact on ocean primary producers is different in different regions for the two types of El Niño
  25. 25. Relation between EL Nino/La Nina and CO2 anomalies (trend removed) Harrison et al. 2014, TPOS 2020 Report.
  26. 26. Atmospheric Methane (CH4) is Increasing • Third most abundant greenhouse gas after H2O and CO2 • Grown by 150% since pre-industrial era (in 1750 it was 700 ppb*) • Less abundant than CO2 but more efficient as a greenhouse gas • Relative to CO2 it contributes about 60% in terms of radiative forcing *ppb = parts per billion
  27. 27. OCO-2 CO2 concentrations (NASA-JPL)
  28. 28. Surface albedo from geostationary satellites MODIS Lattanzio A.; et al., 2013: Land Surface Albedo from Geostationary Satellites: a multi-agency collaboration within SCOPE-CM, 2013. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Geosats Sum Geostationary satellites have better temporal sampling, hence a higher probability to obtain a clear sky view
  29. 29. 29 GSMaP: Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation •Rapidly changing precipitation phenomena need frequent observations. •Global rainfall map merging TRMM, polar orbiting microwave radiometer/sounders, and geostationary infrared radiometers. http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/GSMaP/
  30. 30. met.no Map of Arctic sea ice cover at record low minimum mid-September 2012 (white-blue shades). The minimum cover 32 years earlier (September 1980) is contoured in orange. More information and graphs are available from http://osisaf.met.no Arctic Sea Ice Extent
  31. 31. Extent(Millionsofsquarekilometers) Arctic Sea Ice Extent (Area of Ocean with at least 15% sea ice) 1981-2010 Average ±2 Standard Deviations 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Show all Hide all 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May BETA - National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 31 Dec 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
  32. 32. Polar shipping summer 2014
  33. 33. 28th Plenary session Tromsø, Norway 28-30 October 2014 33 Global Forest Observation Initiative (GFOI) Co-leads: • Australia (DOTE) • Norway (NSC) • USA (USGS) • FAO • CEOS (ESA) GFOI Objectives: • to foster sustained availability of satellite and ground observation in support of national forest information systems • to support countries in the use of observations for their national forest information systems GFOI Country Coverage In 2013 AND 2014 2008 Establishment of GEO FCT task 2009+ FCT demonstration based on NDs 2010 GFOI Concept plan 2011 GFOI Implementation plan 2012 GFOI Start-Up Phase 2013-15 Incrementing coverage 2016+ Operations Phase www.gfoi.org
  34. 34. 34 Red dots indicate new logging locations in Amazon rainfores Identification of new logging locations every 5 days 140 illegal loggings among 1007 new logging locations in 2010 On-site survey and revelations by Federal Police Brazil Monitoring of Illegal Logging with Brazilian environmental agency (IBAMA)
  35. 35. History: Zeeland, 31 Jan 1953 ENVISAT for monitoring dykes in the Netherlands On the potential of PS-InSAR for monitoring dikes in the Netherlands Courtesy of Ramon Hansen Delft Institute of Earth Observation and Space Systems
  36. 36. Overflowing Overtopping Piping Sliding inner slope Plastic horizontal sliding Nipping ice BLUE Below Sea level 17000 km of water barriers: – 3565 km primary water barriers (big rivers, sea, IJsselmeer, Markermeer), – >14000 km regional water barriers On the potential of PS-InSAR for monitoring dikes in the Netherlands Courtesy R. Hansen Delft Institute of Earth Observation and Space Systems
  37. 37. Landsat background, with PSI- dike results of 9 frames superposed (1992-2005) On the potential of PS-InSAR for monitoring dikes in the Netherlands Courtesy of Ramon Hansen Delft Institute of Earth Observation and Space Systems
  38. 38. Summary 1. Historical approach to climate observations formalised through creation of the Global Climate Observing System, GCOS 2. Dialogue with CEOS established, with formal requirements definition and coordinated response form all agencies, research and operational meteorology. 3. Satellites support over 50% of GCOS ECVs directly, about half remainder together with in situ data 4. Major initiatives in and among space agencies provides comprehensive response 5. Satellites now a fundamental source of climate observations for understanding climate, for adaptation and mitigation.

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