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Effects of climate change and other driver of global changes on biodiversity, C. Bellard

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C. Bellard (Université Paris Sud, Paris, France) at the Our Common Future Under Climate Change conference, July 7-10 in Paris, France.

More at http://www.commonfuture-paris2015.org/

Published in: Science
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Effects of climate change and other driver of global changes on biodiversity, C. Bellard

  1. 1. Session : Early Warning and Tipping Points in the Earth system 8 of July Effects of climate change and other driver of global changes on biodiversity C. Bellard, C. Leclerc, B. Leroy, P. Genovesi, W. Thuiller & F. Courchamp
  2. 2. A SIXTH EXTINCTION: THE HOLOCENE Ecuador Australia Cape verde Hawaii islandCeballos et al., 2015 Sc in advances
  3. 3. In general, multiple threats, such as habitat destruction, invasive species, overexploitation, and climate change lead to an increase in species extinction risk. A SIXTH EXTINCTION: MULTIPLE THREATS Habitat loss
  4. 4. In general, multiple threats, such as habitat destruction, invasive species, overexploitation, and climate change lead to an increase in species extinction risk. A SIXTH EXTINCTION: MULTIPLE THREATS Invasive species Habitat loss
  5. 5. In general, multiple threats, such as habitat destruction, invasive species, overexploitation, and climate change lead to an increase in species extinction risk. A SIXTH EXTINCTION: MULTIPLE THREATS Habitat loss Overexploitation Invasive species
  6. 6. In general, multiple threats, such as habitat destruction, invasive species, overexploitation, and climate change lead to an increase in species extinction risk. A SIXTH EXTINCTION: MULTIPLE THREATS Climate change Invasive species Habitat loss Overexploitation
  7. 7. A SIXTH EXTINCTION: MULTIPLE THREATS Climate change Invasive species Habitat loss Overexploitation Increasing pressure on existing biodiversity might lead ecosystems to tipping points at which ecosystems shift to less productive states from which it may be difficult or impossible to recover In general, multiple threats, such as habitat destruction, invasive species, overexploitation, and climate change lead to an increase in species extinction risk.
  8. 8. HOW CAN WE PREDICT THE FUTURE PRESSURES ON BIODIVERSITY ? -climate change, land use change -biological invasions
  9. 9. Change in number of Invasive species per pixel • Effects of climate change and land use changes on invasive species distributions (N=100) ? in 2080 HOW CAN WE PREDICT THE FUTURE PRESSURES ON BIODIVERSITY ?
  10. 10. These results are of high importance HOW CAN WE PREDICT THE FUTURE PRESSURES ON BIODIVERSITY ?
  11. 11. These results are of high importance BUT • Focus on the effect of one driver on the others Climate change on land use changes Climate change on invasive species distribution HOW CAN WE PREDICT THE FUTURE PRESSURES ON BIODIVERSITY ?
  12. 12. These results are of high importance BUT • Focus on the effect of one driver on the others • Do not account for the impact of those drivers on biodiversity Climate change on land use changes Climate change on invasive species distribution Overlap between biodiversity and pressure HOW CAN WE PREDICT THE FUTURE PRESSURES ON BIODIVERSITY ?
  13. 13. These results are of high importance BUT • Focus on the effect of one driver on the others • Do not account for the impact of those drivers on biodiversity Climate change on land use changes Climate change on invasive species distribution Overlap between biodiversity and pressure HOW CAN WE PREDICT THE FUTURE PRESSURES ON BIODIVERSITY ?
  14. 14. Future effects of multiple threats on US biodiversity -Species Distribution Models (Biological invasions) -Digital Elevation Model (Sea level rise) -Climate analog analyses (Climate change) -Land use models US Cumulative threats index • Effects of climate change (including sea-level rise), land use changes and biological invasions in 2050s and 2080s -IUCN species database with threats for mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians Cumulative impact index Method
  15. 15. • Individual threat distribution of climate change (including sea-level rise), land use changes and biological invasions C high low high low A B Mining Developed Cropland Grassland Pasture Disturbed forests Climate change Biological invasions Land use changes Method Future effects of multiple threats on US biodiversity
  16. 16. • Cumulative threat values (including climate change with sea-level rise, land use changes and biological invasions) 0.06-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 Cumulative threat values Results Future effects of multiple threats on US biodiversity On average 1.5 threats per pixel
  17. 17. • Cumulative impact values (including climate change (with sea-level rise), land use changes and biological invasions) −120 −110 −100 −90 −80 −70 2530354045 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 20 40 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 low high Results Future effects of multiple threats on US biodiversity
  18. 18. • Cumulative impact values (including climate change (with sea-level rise), land use changes and biological invasions) −120 −110 −100 −90 −80 −70 2530354045 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 20 40 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 low high Climate Change Invasive species Results Future effects of multiple threats on US biodiversity Species vulnerable to climate change and invasive species
  19. 19. • Cumulative impact values (including climate change (with sea-level rise), land use changes and biological invasions) −120 −110 −100 −90 −80 −70 2530354045 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 20 40 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 low high Climate Change Species vulnerable to pasture, developed and cropland areas Invasive species Results Future effects of multiple threats on US biodiversity Species richness vulnerable to climate change and invasive species
  20. 20. • Cumulative impact values (including climate change (with sea-level rise), land use changes and biological invasions) 20 40 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 low high −120 −90 2040 Climate Change Species vulnerable to developed and disturbed area Invasive Species Results Future effects of multiple threats on US biodiversity
  21. 21. • Cumulative impact values (including climate change (with sea-level rise), land use changes and biological invasions) Climate Change Species vulnerable to developed, grassland, pasture, invasive species, cropland areas Invasive species 0.20.40.60.8 Results Future effects of multiple threats on US biodiversity
  22. 22. • Cumulative impact values (including climate change (with sea-level rise), land use changes and biological invasions) −120 −110 −100 −90 −80 −70 2530354045 Climate Change Invasive species Species vulnerable to Grassland, sea level rise, pasture Results Future effects of multiple threats on US biodiversity
  23. 23. • Cumulative impact values (including climate change (with sea-level rise), land use changes and biological invasions) −120 −110 −100 −90 −80 −70 2530354045 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 −120−90 20 40 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8Cumulative impacts (all taxa) lo w high Results Future effects of multiple threats on US biodiversity Invasive species followed by climate change, and change of land use to croplands and pastures showed broad positive correlation with cumulative impact values across the different taxa Key messages: Importance to consider multiple threats and the vulnerability of each taxonomic group
  24. 24. CONCLUSION
  25. 25. Here, we used USA to illustrate the need to consider multiple interactions between climate change and other threats on biodiversity. Future effects of multiple threats on US biodiversity Identifying the increasing pressure on biodiversity -> tipping points
  26. 26. Here, we used USA to illustrate the need to consider multiple interactions between climate change and other threats on biodiversity. Future effects of multiple threats on US biodiversity How can we remain in the safe operating space ? We need to increase resilience of species and community to multiple threats - identifying analog climate corridors to increase connectivity between similar habitats - need for global rather than regional or national targets for species or habitat protection (ecosystem basis) Identifying the increasing pressure on biodiversity -> tipping points
  27. 27. Here, we used USA to illustrate the need to consider multiple interactions between climate change and other threats on biodiversity. Future effects of multiple threats on US biodiversity Knowledge gaps: fail to consider the non linear response of species to threats fail to consider the context-dependent multiscale studies (species to community to ecosystem services) How can we remain in the safe operating space ? We need to increase resilience of species and community to multiple threats - identifying analog climate corridors to increase connectivity between similar habitats - need for global rather than regional or national targets for species or habitat protection (ecosystem basis) Identifying the increasing pressure on biodiversity -> tipping points
  28. 28. Thanks for your kind attention Here, we used USA to illustrate the need to consider multiple interactions between climate change and other threats on biodiversity. Knowledge gaps: fail to consider the non linear response of species to threats fail to consider the context-dependent multiscale studies (species to community to ecosystem services) How can we remain in the safe operating space ? We need to increase resilience of species and community to multiple threats - identifying analog climate corridors to increase connectivity between similar habitats - need for global rather than regional or national targets for species or habitat protection (ecosystem basis) Identifying the increasing pressure on biodiversity over USA -> tipping points

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