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Andres r 20150708_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_24

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Andres r 20150708_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_24

  1. 1. The changing face of global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions Robert Andres, Tom Boden Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center Oak Ridge National Laboratory U.S.A. andresrj@ornl.gov Common Future, Paris, 2015, 1/15
  2. 2. A quantitative view of the carbon cycle Ciais et al., 2013 Common Future, Paris, 2015, 2/15
  3. 3. Basic calculation carbon dioxide emitted = fuel consumed * fraction of that fuel actually combusted * carbon content of that fuel Common Future, Paris, 2015, 3/15
  4. 4. Basic calculation carbon dioxide emitted = fuel consumed * fraction of that fuel actually combusted * carbon content of that fuel Cement has an analogous equation to describe emissions from cement production: CaCO3 -> CaO +CO2 Common Future, Paris, 2015, 4/15
  5. 5. Global totals Andres et al., 2015 (unpublished) Year 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 AnnualFFCO2Emissions(TgC) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Solid Liquid Gas Gas Flaring Cement Common Future, Paris, 2015, 5/15
  6. 6. Global totals, summed Andres et al., 2015 (unpublished) Year 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 AnnualFFCO2Emissions(TgC) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 Solid Liquid Gas Gas Flaring Cement Total Common Future, Paris, 2015, 6/15
  7. 7. Global totals, changing face #1: Fuel mix Andres et al., 2015 (unpublished) Year 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 AnnualFFCO2Emissions(TgC) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 Solid Liquid Gas Gas Flaring Cement Total Solid fuels dominated Liquid fuels dominated Common Future, Paris, 2015, 7/15
  8. 8. Global totals, changing face #2: Largest country Andres et al., 2015 (unpublished) Year 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 AnnualFFCO2Emissions(TgC) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 Total U.K. USA China Rest of World Common Future, Paris, 2015, 8/15
  9. 9. Global totals, changing face #3: Kyoto Andres et al., 2015 (unpublished) Year 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 AnnualFFCO2Emissions(TgC) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 Total Annex B countries (pledged emissions limitations) non-Annex B countries (no pledged limitations) Common Future, Paris, 2015, 9/15
  10. 10. 1x1 maps Andres et al., 2015 (unpublished) Common Future, Paris, 2015, 10/15
  11. 11. Global totals, changing face #4: Hemisphere Andres et al., 2015 (unpublished) Common Future, Paris, 2015, 11/15 Year 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 AnnualFFCO2Emissions(TgC) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 Total Northern Hemisphere emissions Southern Hemisphere emissions
  12. 12. Mass to concentration Mass units Concentration units Stack Common Future, Paris, 2015, 12/15
  13. 13. Mauna Loa record Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 2015 Common Future, Paris, 2015, 13/15
  14. 14. Emissions local, effects global Stack Earth Winds Common Future, Paris, 2015, 14/15
  15. 15. Conclusions/Implications 1. FFCO2 emissions are a primary driver of the atmospheric disequilibrium impacting and changing other components in the global carbon cycle upon which modern day concerns of climate change are based. 2. FFCO2 emissions can be characterized in a variety of ways (e.g., fuel type, national totals, Kyoto Protocol status, geography, …). 3. In terms of global climate change concerns, it does not matter from which individual country emissions originated. It is the total quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere that is of ultimate concern to climate change processes. Common Future, Paris, 2015, 15/15
  16. 16. Global carbon cycle context a Year 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 ComponentChange(PgC/yr) -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 fossil fuels land use atmospheric growth oceanic uptake terrestrial biosphere Year 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 ComponentUncertainty(PgC/yr) 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 b Year 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 ComponentUncertainty(%ofcomponent) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 c d Year 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 ComponentUncertainty(%ofcomponentsum) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 fossil fuels, 1-D dependent fossil fuels, 3-D land use atmospheric growth oceanic uptake terrestrial biosphere Common Future, Paris, 2015, 16/15Andres et al., 2014
  17. 17. Impact, 8.4% propagation source to atmosphere TerrestrialBiosphereFlux(PgC/year) -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 sink from atmosphere Common Future, Paris, 2015, 17/15Andres et al., 2014 (unpublished)
  18. 18. Individual country contributions to global FFCO2 uncertainty Russia China India USA Mexico USA Poland China Mexico USSR United Kingdom German Dem. Rep. USA Poland USSR Number of Countries 50 100 150 200 CumulativeVariance(%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 2010 emission year 1980 emission year 1950 emission year Common Future, Paris, 2015, 18/15Andres et al., 2014
  19. 19. Stable carbon isotopes Common Future, Paris, 2015, 19/15 Year 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000  13 C -29.00 -28.00 -27.00 -26.00 -25.00 -24.00 Global  13 C Signature of Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Andres et al., 2015 (unpublished)
  20. 20. Annual to monthly Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 AnnualEmissions(TgC) 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 MonthlyEmissions(TgC) 50 100 150 200 Common Future, Paris, 2015, 20/15Andres et al., 2011 (unpublished)
  21. 21. Annual to monthly Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MonthlyFractionofAnnualGlobalFFEmissions 0.070 0.075 0.080 0.085 0.090 0.095 0.100 hypothetical uniform distribution actual global distribution (with +/- 2 standard deviations) Common Future, Paris, 2015, 21/15Andres et al., 2011

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