INTERNAL AND BIOPHYSICAL LIMITS TOGROWTH IN THE SECOND HALF OF THEAGE OF OILKent A. KlitgaardWells CollegeAurora, New York...
THE DILEMMA OF ECONOMIC GROWTH Are We growing too fast and to slowly at the sametime? Too fast to reduce carbon emission...
LIMITS TO GROWTH AND THE BASICECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS MODEL
I. DEFINITION OF EROI(SOMETIMES EROEI)Energy return on investment for an activity:Energy delivered to societyEROI = ______...
DECLINING EROI
ECONOMIC THEORIES OF SECULARSTAGNATION A Fossil Fuel-Driven Economy (with a large energysurplus) Produces a large economi...
EXPLANATIONS OF PERIODS OF PROSPERITY 1. Epoch-making Innovations -Absorb large amounts of economic surplus -spin-off i...
REAL GDP GROWTH
ENERGY AND GDP GROWTH
GDP AND THE ENERGY MIX
CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS
CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS BY COUNTRY
CARBON EMISSIONS PER UNIT OF GDP
PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN GDP
PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN GDP: US &MEXICO
PERCENT CHANGE IN GDP: US AND CANADA
EMPLOYMENT AND GDP GROWTH
PERCENTAGE GROWTH IN GDP AND ENERGY
OIL PRICES AND RECESSIONS
THE NEW NORMAL?
A PRESCIENT QUOTE? “When we, systems dynamicists, see a patternpersist in many parts of a system over longperiods, we ass...
WHAT STRUCTURAL CHANGES CAN NORTHAMERICA BRING ABOUT? Smaller scale, more local production Limits to speculative finance...
Kent Klitgaard: Internal and Biophysical Limits to Growth in the Second Half of the Age of Oil
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Kent Klitgaard: Internal and Biophysical Limits to Growth in the Second Half of the Age of Oil

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Kent Clitgaard, professor of economics at Wells College, spoke at the CEC Joint Public Advisory Committee's forum on Greening North America's Energy Economy in Calgary on April 24, 2013. More at http://www.cec.org/JPACenergy

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Kent Klitgaard: Internal and Biophysical Limits to Growth in the Second Half of the Age of Oil

  1. 1. INTERNAL AND BIOPHYSICAL LIMITS TOGROWTH IN THE SECOND HALF OF THEAGE OF OILKent A. KlitgaardWells CollegeAurora, New York, USA
  2. 2. THE DILEMMA OF ECONOMIC GROWTH Are We growing too fast and to slowly at the sametime? Too fast to reduce carbon emissions? Too slowly to reduce unemployment and poverty?
  3. 3. LIMITS TO GROWTH AND THE BASICECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS MODEL
  4. 4. I. DEFINITION OF EROI(SOMETIMES EROEI)Energy return on investment for an activity:Energy delivered to societyEROI = __________________________Energy put into that activityUsually consider energy invested from society
  5. 5. DECLINING EROI
  6. 6. ECONOMIC THEORIES OF SECULARSTAGNATION A Fossil Fuel-Driven Economy (with a large energysurplus) Produces a large economic surplus ES = Value of Output – Σ (subsistenceconsumption + replacement investment) This surplus seeks investment Inability to absorb surplus leads to short-termrecessions and long-term stagnation (slow growth) Statistical Trace: unemployment and excesscapacity
  7. 7. EXPLANATIONS OF PERIODS OF PROSPERITY 1. Epoch-making Innovations -Absorb large amounts of economic surplus -spin-off industries -Examples --steam engine --railroad --automobile ----all fossil-fuel intensive 2. War and its aftermath
  8. 8. REAL GDP GROWTH
  9. 9. ENERGY AND GDP GROWTH
  10. 10. GDP AND THE ENERGY MIX
  11. 11. CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS
  12. 12. CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS BY COUNTRY
  13. 13. CARBON EMISSIONS PER UNIT OF GDP
  14. 14. PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN GDP
  15. 15. PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN GDP: US &MEXICO
  16. 16. PERCENT CHANGE IN GDP: US AND CANADA
  17. 17. EMPLOYMENT AND GDP GROWTH
  18. 18. PERCENTAGE GROWTH IN GDP AND ENERGY
  19. 19. OIL PRICES AND RECESSIONS
  20. 20. THE NEW NORMAL?
  21. 21. A PRESCIENT QUOTE? “When we, systems dynamicists, see a patternpersist in many parts of a system over longperiods, we assume that it has causes embeddedin the feedback loop structure of the system.Running the same system harder or faster will notchange the pattern as long as the structure is notrevised” --Donnella Meadows, Dennis Meadows & Jorgen Randers The Limits to Growth 30 Year Update
  22. 22. WHAT STRUCTURAL CHANGES CAN NORTHAMERICA BRING ABOUT? Smaller scale, more local production Limits to speculative finance Work sharing More equality (internationally and intra-nationally Getting by on less energy Sustainability can be neither Soviet-style heavyindustry nor globalized monopoly finance capitalism

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