Dirk Van der Woude - Manchester


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Amsterdam fibre after two years: problems & fails, lessons learned, successes and how all things end well - Dirk van der Woude, City-Net Project, City of Amsterdam at the Manchester CBN/NextGen Euro Conference on 22 June 2009

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Dirk Van der Woude - Manchester

  1. 1. Towards a smarter Amsterdam Amsterdam fiber two years on: problems & fails, lessons learned, successes and how all things end well Dirk van der Woude
  2. 2. Introduction OGA: Amsterdam Municipal Development Corporation ● Municipal development of large and small scale real estate ● Administrator for all municipal held lands: 80% of the territory, market value of around 65 billion euro One of the projects is the overall vision and direction of the city's broadband programs Which projects aim at increasing the value of the city and hence of its real estate So – we ‘re in it for the dough…
  3. 3. Our aims in simple terms…  We want a future proof network  Seen as a long term, real estate like, investment  Universally rolled out to all of the city’s 400K addresses  Empowering open competion ON the infrastructure  Preferably done by the market  Necessary investment: around 450 million Euro – If needed we invest ourselves – We prefer to cooperate with the market
  4. 4. At the start: City government happy!
  5. 5. A city and its interventions… 100% government
  6. 6. 4th in Europe – related to 40,000 jobs start: around AD 1250 – 100% muni
  7. 7. 4th in Europe – related to 70,000 jobs start: AD 1920 - 22% muni 78% national
  8. 8. (Courtesy of Teleography: World Map capacity between countries)
  9. 9. 1st in the world – related to 50,000 jobs start: AD 1997 – 100% not for profit Source: Henk Steenman, 2007
  10. 10. Now that government regained popularity...
  11. 11. Japan - … and in S. Korea, PR China, Singapore, Hongkong etc. Wireline broadband in Japan, 1999 - 2008 14.000 12.000 Source spreadsheet: http://www.stat.go.jp/data/getujidb/zuhyou/o02.xls 10.000 Cable 8.000 DSL FttH/B 6.000 4.000 Source: Office of Statistics, Japan thousands of subscribers 2.000 0 1999.032001.032003.032005.032006.032006.092007.032007.092008.032008.09 2000.032002.032004.032005.122006.062006.122007.062007.122008.062008.12
  12. 12. USA “The Internet is the most open network in history. We have to keep it that way. I will prevent network providers from discriminating in ways that limit the freedom of expression on the Internet. Because most Americans have a choice of only one or two broadband carriers, carriers are tempted (…) I will protect the Internet's traditional openness to innovation and creativity, and ensure that it remains a platform for free speech and innovation that will benefit consumers and our democracy. Barack Hussein Obama, October 2008
  13. 13. USA: “It’s Time to Broadband the Economy” “An economic stimulus package that focuses on infrastructure must put America’s broadband infrastructure at the head of the list. It’s time to broadband our economy. Doing so will not only help stabilize and stimulate a recovery but create the foundation for long-term prosperity and competitiveness.” John Chambers, Chairman and CEO, Cisco January 2009
  14. 14. European Commission sees the light... “Currently broadband is provided by telecommunications operators to their subscribers via the same copper wires that have been used for telephony since its invention in the 19th century. However, new broadband services (...) require enhanced network characteristics including higher bandwidths that cannot be provided over copper infrastructure. To provide these services it is necessary to replace the copper infrastructure connecting the end- users to the local switches (the "local loop") by optical fibre.” European Commission, 12 June 2009
  15. 15. 25-04-09 On £15 billion and 800 K jobs (London School of Economics, April 2009) • “£5 billion on broadband networks (creating or retaining 280,000 jobs) (…) Spurring more and higher speed broadband would boost business productivity. • £5 billion on intelligent transport systems (creating or retaining 188,000 jobs). Improve traffic flows through adaptive traffic signals and electronic tolls and provide travellers with real-time traffic information. Extra spending on ITS would deliver environmental benefits and make the country more productive. • £5 billion on developing a smart power grid (creating or retaining 235,000 jobs). Using two-way communication and sensors a smart grid will deliver power more efficiently and reliably. (…) One US study suggested this could cut 10 per cent from utility bills. The smart grid would also allow the deployment of new greener technologies including plug-in hybrid electric cars.“ http://www.itif.org/files/digitalrecovery.pdf
  16. 16. Brazil “The Broadband Divide is bigger than the Digital Divide. A new Third World is arising in which people are under the impression they have access to the Internet.” Silvio Lemos Meira, Chief Scientist of C.E.S.A.R., PortoDigital, Recife, Brazil
  17. 17. However, at the same time in the UK... "Those who say that a Universal Service Obligation of 2Mbps is a ludicrously low ambition miss the point." Lord Carter, Baron StephenCarter of Barnes February 2009
  18. 18. 19 Improvement? Docsis 3.0? <= promise: “120 Mb/s, no even > 400 Mb/s over coax…” …real world: shared bandwidth => (Xiamen, Jan. 2007)
  19. 19. 20 Improvement? VDSL2? Houston, TX, The Famous Nov. 2006 ‘Dblam’ Some more went 'Bang!' http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=93103&page_number=4
  20. 20. FttH programs Amsterdam FttH: Parts of boroughs of Three separate programs: Osdorp and Zeeburg & Oost  Fiber to the Home: > 40,000 addresses ● 2007/2008: to 10% of homes, representative sample ● aim: whole city per 2012-’15  Fiber to the School: 1 symm Gb/s ● July 2009: to 500 schools and non-profits ● upgrading of existing 6/1 asymm Mb/s per building… ● self organisation, organizing support by city  Fiber to the Theater: 1 symm Gb/s ● to >15 major theaters ● once-only grant City (< 15%) ● sector innovation very slow ● FabChannel leading, had to close shop as records industry refuses to innovate
  21. 21. 22 Fiber to the Home Amsterdam 2009: 43,000 adresses connected or passed consumer/ Service providers SME 100% open market Wholesale operators Rent open access 100% open market Passive infrastructure: Rent GNA, Inc. 15% municipal shares 5% municipal euro’s
  22. 22. 23 Assumptions…  Independent service providers to compete and market to consumers  Winner of tender active layer (and hence thereon investor) to market to service providers as well as consumers  To operate as lessor
  23. 23. 24 Beaten by new realities...  Between 2005 & 2008 independent providers failed or were acquired by infrastructure companies  BBned owns last non-incumbent ISP’s  Winner BBned – since 2007 rumoured to be sale by owner Telecom Italia Does not help in marketing…  Landlord GNA has to do marketing as well, next to substantial poblems in physically rolling out the network…
  24. 24. 25 “Why innovate when Amsterdam you can litigate?” FttH -- John C. Malone who in 1995 was dubbed by Al Gore as “Darth Vader of Cable”
  25. 25. Digging in an old city  > 95% high rise MDU ● Vertically stacked homes can be troublesome  > 90% city below sea level ● No problem for cables, POP’s however…  Rolling out FttH is an once only operation...
  26. 26. In house architect?
  27. 27. Anybody home?
  28. 28. Competing for space…
  29. 29. Now dry…
  30. 30. Most of Amsterdam is below sea level… Very dry again: visit to POP distributing to 30K subs by Mr. Costas (Mayor of Lisbon) & Mr. Carter (CEO of MDDA) September ‘08
  31. 31. So – any good, that fiber network?
  32. 32. (Exhibit 1) Perhaps (very) untrue: “There are no apps that need this” { 32,4 Mb/s “Open internet TV, beyond anything else” www.getmiro.com
  33. 33. (Exhibit 2) And there’s FttH loving hardware as well… • HD Video (720P) • Data: 60 MegabYte per minute, 32.000 MB total recording capacity • Some more upload capacity would be rather convenient… • About £ 105 at Amazon.co.uk • Be quick: this week £ 95 @ Laskys.com
  34. 34. Lessons learned... outside inside
  35. 35. Capex…
  36. 36. Another lesson learned… ”Facility based competition 2.0” Active Ethernet Citynet: more than 13.000 fibers per POP GPON 1 : 32 optical split in POP Future POP = local switch house
  37. 37. Feb. 4, '09: KPN signs Amsterdam FttH contract file:///C:/Film-Foto/2009-2-4-Signing/CIMG2697.JPG
  38. 38. To speed up… developments 2008 / 9 • 2007/8: KPN/Regge and City of Amsterdam exchange views; • 2008: ● Minister understands need for NGN ● Regulators OPTA and NMa work on longer term regulation ● Incumbent KPN opens discussions with Reggefiber; ● Late Summer: the two propose a policy to the regulators; • December 2008: Regulators decide on open network with regulated ODF-tariff as well as tri-annual control on profit ceiling. • In other words: rather large part of vision Amsterdam now widely shared. • February 2009: agreement with KPN & Reggefiber on a city wide roll out, starting with another 100K connections ● Agreement Competion Authority expected
  39. 39. 43 A citywide base for sustainable growth and trans sectoral innovation Environmental benefits of fast as well as symmetric broadband (i.e. NGaN)  Fine mazed cheap fiber grid base for wireless cloud (any tech)  Teleworking/-care etc.  Helps towards SmartGrid & -Metering  Facilitates low carb telecomputing & -storing (cloud computing)
  40. 40. New old kid on the block: Wimax... Start: June 2008 Coverage: Downtown plus Zuidas Test of 8 Mb/s product by Personal Computer Magazine (June 2009) Postal code / Download Mb / Upload Mb / Ping ms 1011DL / 3.35 / 0.04 / 168 1012KL / 2.77 / 0.04 / 154 1072LH / 2.87 / 0.04 / 173 1017PP / 2.75 / 0.24 / 100
  41. 41. Fiber is 'bit' faster...
  42. 42. All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. -- Arthur Schopenhauer (1788 - 1860)