Cost-Benefit Analysis for Justice Policy: A Step-By-Step Guide<br />January 18, 2011<br />Mike Wilson, Oregon Criminal Jus...
Cost-Benefit Analysis for Justice Policy:       A Step-By-Step Guide<br />January 18, 2011<br />Michael Wilson,           ...
Today’s Agenda<br />
Housekeeping items<br />Questions<br />Use the chat feature to send us questions throughout the webinar<br />Use the raise...
The Cost-Benefit Knowledge Bank for Criminal Justice (CBKB) is a project of the Vera Institute of Justice funded by the U....
CBA Toolkit
Snapshots of CBA Literature
Podcasts, Videocasts, and Webinars
Roundtable Discussions
Community of Practice</li></li></ul><li>Series Preview<br />You will learn how to: <br />Assess your jurisdiction’s return...
Part 1 Preview<br />You will learn how to: <br />Discuss prison economics and the return on investment from incarceration....
Introduction to Cost-Benefit Analysis in Justice Policy<br />
What is cost-benefit analysis?<br />An approach to policymaking<br />A systematic tool for evaluating public policy<br />A...
Why use cost-benefit analysis?<br />Strengths:<br />Inform policy<br />Efficient use of resources<br />Common measurement<...
Cost-benefit applications<br />Ballot initiative<br />Program designed to reduce drug use<br />What benefits do you includ...
Prison Economics<br />
Prison Economics<br />What is the impact of incarceration on crime?<br />The Oregon Criminal Justice Commission  found tha...
Pie Chart Slide<br />Source: Oregon Criminal Justice Commission <br />
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Incarceration<br />Cost-Benefit Analysis of Incarceration<br />Oregon<br />Washington<br />Year<b...
Costs of CrimeCrime Estimates<br />
Table 1: Oregon Cost Estimates<br />Costs by crime type<br />Costs by resource use<br />Taxpayer and victim costs<br />
Costs by Crime Type<br />Murder/manslaughter<br />Sex offense<br />Robbery<br />Assault<br />Property<br />Drug<br />Other...
Costs by Resource Use<br />Arrest, Conviction, and State Adult Costs<br />Marginal vs. average cost<br />Sources of cost d...
Taxpayer Costs<br />Police<br />Courts<br />Juvenile detention state<br />Juvenile detention county<br />Juvenile probatio...
Victimization Costs<br />How can we estimate costs to victims?<br />Victimization estimates: <br />National Institute of J...
	Questions?<br />
Costs of CrimeProbabilities<br />
Figure 1: Probability of Arrest, Conviction and Incarceration<br />
Table 2: Estimated Probability of Arrest and Conviction<br />Probability offense reported<br />Probability offense leads t...
Probability of an Offense Being Reported<br />Source: National Victimization Survey (2007)<br />Person crimes: 46% reporte...
Probability of a Reported Offense Leading to an Arrest<br />Source: Uniform Crime Reports<br />Offense and arrest data<br ...
Probability of an Offense Leading to an Arrest<br />Oregon Example<br />For number of actual offenses, divide number repor...
Probability of an Arrest Leading to a Conviction<br />How many arrests end in conviction<br />Oregon Example <br />This wa...
	Questions?<br />
Costs of Crime:Sentencing Distributions<br />
Sentencing Distributions<br />Need to know the sentencing distribution to calculate DOC costs<br />What percentage of conv...
Table 3: Sentencing Distribution<br />Probability conviction leads to prison<br />Probability conviction leads to jail<br ...
	Questions?<br />
Estimating Effects<br />
What is an effect size?<br />Quantifies the effectiveness of a particular policy or program<br />Estimates how much a prog...
Where do effect sizes come from?<br />Evaluations of own-state programs<br />Are there estimates for a given program in yo...
Advantages of Evaluating Own State Programs<br />Effect size from the literature will likely not match your state<br />Dif...
Advantages of Meta-Analysis<br />Program may not exist in your state<br />Expensive and difficult to evaluate all programs...
Applying an Effect Size<br />CBA monetizes effect sizes: <br />Program costs<br />Averted taxpayer costs (arrest, convicti...
Example of Cost-Benefit Findings<br />
Big picture take-aways<br />Incarceration reduces crime. <br />There are diminishing returns to incarceration. <br />Crime...
Questions?Contact Information:Mike WilsonSAC Director/EconomistOregon Criminal Justice CommissionMichael.K.Wilson@state.or...
Wrap-Up<br />
Part 1 Review<br />Discussed prison economics and return on investment from incarceration <br />Deconstructed costs into t...
Part 2 Preview<br />You will learn how to: <br />Calculate the cost of an offense using real numbers from Oregon<br />Buil...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Part 1, Cost-Benefit Analysis for Justice Policy: A Step-By-Step Guide, PowerPoint Slides

5,089 views

Published on

Published in: Technology
  • Be the first to comment

Part 1, Cost-Benefit Analysis for Justice Policy: A Step-By-Step Guide, PowerPoint Slides

  1. 1. Cost-Benefit Analysis for Justice Policy: A Step-By-Step Guide<br />January 18, 2011<br />Mike Wilson, Oregon Criminal Justice Commission<br />Lora Krsulich, Vera Institute of Justice<br />
  2. 2. Cost-Benefit Analysis for Justice Policy: A Step-By-Step Guide<br />January 18, 2011<br />Michael Wilson, Oregon Criminal Justice Commission<br />Lora Krsulich,Vera Institute of Justice<br />
  3. 3. Today’s Agenda<br />
  4. 4. Housekeeping items<br />Questions<br />Use the chat feature to send us questions throughout the webinar<br />Use the raise hand feature to ask a question during a the question and answer period. Check the chat feature for instructions about how to un-mute your phone line. <br />Webinar support and troubleshooting<br />Call: (800) 843-9166<br />Email: help@readytalk.com<br />Handout<br />This webinar is being recorded<br />
  5. 5. The Cost-Benefit Knowledge Bank for Criminal Justice (CBKB) is a project of the Vera Institute of Justice funded by the U.S. Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Assistance. <br /><ul><li>Website (cbkb.org)
  6. 6. CBA Toolkit
  7. 7. Snapshots of CBA Literature
  8. 8. Podcasts, Videocasts, and Webinars
  9. 9. Roundtable Discussions
  10. 10. Community of Practice</li></li></ul><li>Series Preview<br />You will learn how to: <br />Assess your jurisdiction’s return on investment from criminal justice expenditures<br />Explain the costs of crime and benefits from crime avoided<br />Consume and produce high-quality cost-benefit analysis<br />
  11. 11. Part 1 Preview<br />You will learn how to: <br />Discuss prison economics and the return on investment from incarceration. <br />Deconstruct costs into their component parts: estimates, probabilities and sentencing distributions. <br />Interpret an effect size and demonstrate how effects sizes are used to produce CBA findings<br />
  12. 12. Introduction to Cost-Benefit Analysis in Justice Policy<br />
  13. 13. What is cost-benefit analysis?<br />An approach to policymaking<br />A systematic tool for evaluating public policy<br />A way to weigh options<br />A method for finding out what will achieve the greatest results at the lowest cost<br />
  14. 14. Why use cost-benefit analysis?<br />Strengths:<br />Inform policy<br />Efficient use of resources<br />Common measurement<br />Weaknesses:<br />Accuracy<br />Deciding what costs/benefits to include<br />
  15. 15. Cost-benefit applications<br />Ballot initiative<br />Program designed to reduce drug use<br />What benefits do you include?<br />Which costs are measured? County, state, local, all?<br />
  16. 16. Prison Economics<br />
  17. 17. Prison Economics<br />What is the impact of incarceration on crime?<br />The Oregon Criminal Justice Commission found that a 10% increase in the incarceration rate leads to a 2.6% reduction in crime. <br />Others, including the Washington State Institute of Public Policy (WSIPP), have found similar results. <br />How many crimes are avoided by incarceration? <br />What is the cost-benefit ratio of incarceration?<br />
  18. 18. Pie Chart Slide<br />Source: Oregon Criminal Justice Commission <br />
  19. 19. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Incarceration<br />Cost-Benefit Analysis of Incarceration<br />Oregon<br />Washington<br />Year<br />All<br />Violent<br />Property<br />Drug<br />1994<br />$2.78<br />$9.57<br />$2.36<br />$0.37<br />1995<br />$2.42<br />$8.20<br />$2.40<br />$0.37<br />1996<br />$1.98<br />$7.06<br />$2.23<br />$0.34<br />1997<br />$1.81<br />$6.58<br />$2.22<br />$0.36<br />1998<br />$1.60<br />$5.85<br />$1.94<br />$0.36<br />1999<br />$1.31<br />$5.37<br />$1.74<br />$0.32<br />2000<br />$1.10<br />$5.24<br />$1.61<br />$0.31<br />2001<br />$1.11<br />$4.87<br />$1.46<br />$0.28<br />2002<br />$0.95<br />$4.46<br />$1.20<br />$0.26<br />2003<br />$1.01<br />$4.82<br />$1.26<br />$0.29<br />2004<br />$1.01<br />$4.33<br />$1.18<br />$0.32<br />2005<br />$0.93<br />$4.35<br />$1.10<br />$0.35<br />2006<br />$0.96<br />N/A<br />N/A<br />N/A<br />2007<br />$0.91<br />N/A<br />N/A<br />N/A<br />Source: Oregon Criminal Justice Commission and WSIPP<br />
  20. 20. Costs of CrimeCrime Estimates<br />
  21. 21. Table 1: Oregon Cost Estimates<br />Costs by crime type<br />Costs by resource use<br />Taxpayer and victim costs<br />
  22. 22. Costs by Crime Type<br />Murder/manslaughter<br />Sex offense<br />Robbery<br />Assault<br />Property<br />Drug<br />Other<br />Misdemeanor<br />
  23. 23. Costs by Resource Use<br />Arrest, Conviction, and State Adult Costs<br />Marginal vs. average cost<br />Sources of cost data<br />Cross sectional regression analysis<br />Local budget data<br />Local arrest data and traffic stop data<br />For state adult costs, must keep track of inflation and put dollars in a common year<br />
  24. 24. Taxpayer Costs<br />Police<br />Courts<br />Juvenile detention state<br />Juvenile detention county<br />Juvenile probation<br />Juvenile parole<br />Juvenile county supervision<br />Adult probation<br />Adult jail (county)<br />Adult prison<br />Adult post prison supervision<br />
  25. 25. Victimization Costs<br />How can we estimate costs to victims?<br />Victimization estimates: <br />National Institute of Justice, Victim Costs and Consequences: A New Look (1996)<br />K. E. McCollister, M. T. French, & H. Fang (2010). The Cost of Crime to Society: New Crime-Specific Estimates for Policy and Program Evaluation. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 108(1), 98-109.<br />Tangible and intangible losses<br />Loss estimates<br />
  26. 26. Questions?<br />
  27. 27. Costs of CrimeProbabilities<br />
  28. 28. Figure 1: Probability of Arrest, Conviction and Incarceration<br />
  29. 29. Table 2: Estimated Probability of Arrest and Conviction<br />Probability offense reported<br />Probability offense leads to arrest<br />Probability offense leads to conviction<br />Probability arrest leads to conviction<br />
  30. 30. Probability of an Offense Being Reported<br />Source: National Victimization Survey (2007)<br />Person crimes: 46% reported<br />Property crimes: 37% reported<br />Oregon Example<br />Need to make adjustments to reflect felony crimes in Oregon<br />Theft value over $750<br />Sex Crimes against children<br />
  31. 31. Probability of a Reported Offense Leading to an Arrest<br />Source: Uniform Crime Reports<br />Offense and arrest data<br />Oregon Example: Arrest Rate<br />
  32. 32. Probability of an Offense Leading to an Arrest<br />Oregon Example<br />For number of actual offenses, divide number reported by national rate of report. <br />For probability of arrest, divide number of arrests by number of actual offenses. <br />
  33. 33. Probability of an Arrest Leading to a Conviction<br />How many arrests end in conviction<br />Oregon Example <br />This was difficult to do because OR does not have a map of UCR data to state law codes<br />Worked with a few large police departments to map UCR to Oregon Revised Statutes<br />
  34. 34. Questions?<br />
  35. 35. Costs of Crime:Sentencing Distributions<br />
  36. 36. Sentencing Distributions<br />Need to know the sentencing distribution to calculate DOC costs<br />What percentage of convicted offenders get prison, probation and local control?<br />What are the average lengths of the sentences?<br />What are the present value costs of incarceration?<br />
  37. 37. Table 3: Sentencing Distribution<br />Probability conviction leads to prison<br />Probability conviction leads to jail<br />Probability conviction leads to probation<br />Average length of sentence<br />
  38. 38. Questions?<br />
  39. 39. Estimating Effects<br />
  40. 40. What is an effect size?<br />Quantifies the effectiveness of a particular policy or program<br />Estimates how much a program reduces crime<br />Provides a foundation for cost-benefit analysis<br />
  41. 41. Where do effect sizes come from?<br />Evaluations of own-state programs<br />Are there estimates for a given program in your state?<br />Meta-analysis<br />Meta-analysis summarizes research to estimate an effect size<br />If no effect size available, you can calculate what effect size would be needed to pay for the program<br />
  42. 42. Advantages of Evaluating Own State Programs<br />Effect size from the literature will likely not match your state<br />Different time periods<br />Different demographics<br />Effectiveness changes over time<br />
  43. 43. Advantages of Meta-Analysis<br />Program may not exist in your state<br />Expensive and difficult to evaluate all programs<br />
  44. 44. Applying an Effect Size<br />CBA monetizes effect sizes: <br />Program costs<br />Averted taxpayer costs (arrest, conviction, state adult costs)<br />Averted victim costs (out of pocket and emotional)<br />Offender, family, community benefits<br />
  45. 45. Example of Cost-Benefit Findings<br />
  46. 46. Big picture take-aways<br />Incarceration reduces crime. <br />There are diminishing returns to incarceration. <br />Crime costs are influenced by type of crime and how resources are used to arrest, convict, and sentence offenders. <br />Using effect sizes, CBA can provide a framework to compare across policy choices. <br />
  47. 47. Questions?Contact Information:Mike WilsonSAC Director/EconomistOregon Criminal Justice CommissionMichael.K.Wilson@state.or.us(503) 378-4850<br />
  48. 48. Wrap-Up<br />
  49. 49. Part 1 Review<br />Discussed prison economics and return on investment from incarceration <br />Deconstructed costs into their component parts: estimates, probabilities and sentencing distributions. <br />Interpreted an effect size and demonstrated how effects sizes are used to produce CBA findings<br />
  50. 50. Part 2 Preview<br />You will learn how to: <br />Calculate the cost of an offense using real numbers from Oregon<br />Build a cost-benefit model<br />Use cost-benefit analysis in decision-making<br />
  51. 51. Follow up<br />Please complete the evaluation form as you leave this training.<br />To receive information and notifications about upcoming webinars and other events<br /><ul><li>Visit the Cost-Benefit Knowledge Bank for Criminal Justice at http://www.cbkb.org
  52. 52. Follow us on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/CBKBank</li></ul>The next webinar in this series will take place on Tuesday, January 25 at 2 p.m. EST.<br />
  53. 53. This project is supported by Grant No. 2009-MU-BX K029 awarded by the Bureau of Justice Assistance. The Bureau of Justice Assistance is a component of the Office of Justice Programs, which also includes the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the National Institute of Justice, the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, and the Office of Sex Offender Sentencing, Monitoring, Apprehending, Registering, and Tracking. Points of view or opinions in this document are those of the author and do not represent the official position or policies of the United States Department of Justice.<br />
  54. 54. Contact Information<br />Lora Krsulich<br />lkrsulich@vera.org<br />(212) 376-5201<br />cbkb@cbkb.org<br />http://www.cbkb.org<br />
  55. 55. Thank you!<br />

×