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The Road Ahead for the Voluntary Sector: Key Trends and Challenges
- 1. THE ROAD AHEAD FOR THE VOLUNTARY SECTOR NORFOLK’S VCSE CONFERENCE JULY 2017 @KARLWILDING NCVO.ORG.UK
- 3. INCREASES IN INCOME AND SPENDING SEEN LAST YEAR HAVE CONTINUED IN 2014/15 UK voluntary sector income and spending, 2000/01 to 2014/15 (£bn, 2014/15 prices) Source: NCVO, TSRC, Charity Commission 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Income Expenditure £45.5bn £43.3bn
- 4. THE LARGEST VOLUNTARY ORGANISATIONS ARE FEW IN NUMBER BUT ACCOUNT FOR 80% OF SECTOR INCOME Proportion of voluntary organisations in the UK by number and income in 2014/15 broken down by size of organisation Source: NCVO/TSRC, Charity Commission #NCVOAlmanac Make up 82% of the total number of voluntary organisations… … but account for 80% of total income of the voluntary sector Micro/small organisations (£0-£100k) Large to super-major organisations (£1m+) …but only 5% of total income of the voluntary sector Make up just 3% of the total number of voluntary organisations…
- 5. INCOME FROM GOVERNMENT MOVES CLOSER TO THE PEAK SEEN IN 2009/10 Government income from grants and contracts, 2001/01 to 2014/15 (£bn, 2014/15 prices) Source: NCVO/TSRC, Charity Commission #NCVOAlmanac 5.1 5.2 5.7 6.2 5.2 4.8 4.7 4.2 3.2 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.9 2.9 4.9 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.9 9.2 10.1 11.3 12.2 12.5 12.8 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Government grants Government contracts £15.3bn£15.7bn
- 6. A CIVIC CORE Source: TSRC (2012)
- 19. 19
- 20. 20
- 23. THE BRAVE NEW WORLD OF DOING GOOD
- 25. 25
- 31. 31
- 33. 33
- 36. Chuka Umunna on the public’s concerns about immigration: “we came up with accountants’ answers to deep cultural issues”
- 37. 37
Editor's Notes
- Serious point: Noone can predict the future, but we can identify drivers in the external environment that are shaping our future. To quote Abraham Lincoln: ‘the best way to predict your future is to create it’; So, I suppose the starting point for this presentation is that we’ve spent the last 5 years talking about first the recession, then how bad the government funding situation is disasterous. I wonder if we need to start moving on the narrative? It strikes me there is no commisisoner on a white charger about to save us…
- Total income for the sector for 2014/15 = £45.5bn Total spending for the sector for 2014/15 = £43.3bn
- This is important: it describes the world as is now, but our challenge is that we are starting to transiton to a world where the millentials are giving smaller amounts of time, not necessarily for the same organisations. Much of my talk is about where next.
- It’s not just about the financial crisis though: its about the relentless pressure of demographic (and social) change: a rapidly ageing, more atomised population that will demand greater levels of public services. And that’s before we’ve even got into a discussion about changing expectations. Currently, people on average visit their GP 6 times a year; that compares with roughly 3 times a year 20 years ago.
- Source: http://designtaxi.com/news/356555/2005-VS-2013-The-Difference-Between-8-Years-As-Seen-At-St-Peter-s-Square/ The two pictures are of the papal inaugeration. Digital has changed everything. Everything. Not just how organisations deliver services, or fundraise, or campaign, but the cultures and values of our stakeholders. Business models everywhere are being disrupted. The rise of ubiquitous, always-on mobile tech means we are always on, in the public eye. And these weapons of mass distraction mean the only thing that’s scarce these days is attention.
- Source: Ashcroft Polling
- So, things have been tough; the ‘sector’ may have peaked in size; so what’s going to shape us in coming years? Predictions are always difficult, especially when they’re about the future…
- Devolution Is the sun setting on big government at the centre? Maybe. Certainly every political party is promising to transfer power to more local decision makers: LEPs, PCCs, CCGs etc The Scottish referendum has set a hare running: and for what its worth, I think we will see more devolution, but it will be messy, with different arrangements in different places. So what? I think this is tough for national charities: influencing will be more difficult; resources will go from the national to the local. Conversely, I wonder if this is a real time for local charities to be more optimistic about being able to engage with people who actually have power and resource and who might just want local solutions? Now more than ever is a time to get partnerships between national and local charities right (NB these are not a synonym for large and small)
- People want to do good. They don’t care in which sector they do it. So for the time precious, the cash poor, the outcome is the same: if they don’t think that we are using their resource to make the biggest impact, we wont be in the business of doing good. Note this is a relative proposition, not an absolute. It’s no longer good enough to say we do good in the voluntary sector.
- We’re all investors now: shift from altruism to reciprocity and return New breed of social investors: earned not inherited wealth; demand metrics; comfortable with technology and (big) data; want scale and replication These all point to a new wave of doing good based on making a difference
- I can confidently predict that allotments will be THE next big thing in public policy. I’m calling it right now that we’ll soon have a National Allotments Service. (Thanks to @lewiscoakley for that one) More seriously- this raises the bar in terms of expectations and I fret slightly about our ability to meet these.
- There is very much a focus on service. That’s interesting – a criticism of the millennial generation is that they are too self-centred.
- Organising without organisations has become ridiculously easy If so, are traditiona voluntary organisations still relevant? Will people who give their time see us as the vehicles for giving time? If so, we need to adapt to a digital world
- Fundraising: disintermediation and new intermediaries
- Quote: at the SMF/Opinium event ‘Dead Centre’
- So, this is going to lead to some campaigns that provoke disagreement and possibly complaint in what was already a febrile environment. So what? First up: it’s vitally important charities and vol orgs don’t self police and pull back from campaigning because of fear of the lobbying act or charity commission guidance. The act in particular is a poor piece of legislation, but the risks can definitely be managed. Second, its important that charities manage the risks of campaigning: now more than ever is the time to discuss tactics etc at board level. Third, digital has completely changed campaigning, made it cheaper, quicker, bigger, harder to control. Risk management again.