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Ppt on measures to curb continuning slide of rupee


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Ppt on measures to curb continuning slide of rupee

  1. 1. Policy Measures to arrest continuing Slide of Indian Currency Value (INR) & Impact on Indian Trade Presented by MBF Group 2
  2. 2. Depreciation of Rupee  More and more rupee brought in our country and dollars are sold.  More and more rupees are sold and dollars are brought Rupee Appreciates Rupee Depreciates
  3. 3. Movement in INR Compared to Dollar & Euro 72.23 70.68 69.54 70.98 73.68 77.98 80.95 62.00 64.00 66.00 68.00 70.00 72.00 74.00 76.00 78.00 80.00 82.00 Exchangerate Months INR to EURO 53.29 53.77 54.39 54.22 56.50 59.70 61.12 48.00 50.00 52.00 54.00 56.00 58.00 60.00 62.00 Exchangerate Months INR to USD The Indian Rupee has depreciated significantly against the US Dollar marking a new risk for Indian economy. The rupee touched an all-time low of Rs 61.17 /$ on 31 July 2013, breaching its previous historic low of Rs 59.98/1$ of 2008. At the end of day it was Rs 61.12/1$.
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  5. 5. Reasons for Slump in the value of Indian Currency  High Current Account Deficit  Lower Foreign Capital Inflows  Lower Economic Growth and Devaluation Pressure
  6. 6. High Current Account Deficit  Gold Imports, hefty oils bills and decreasing exports due to global slowdown leads to higher current account deficit. Our imports are higher than exports resulting into a worsening CAD.  The fall of the oil price to US$90/barrel has helped India to fight the depreciating rupee up to some extent but at the same time the Euro zone, one of India's major trading partners is under a severe economic crisis leads to reduced exports. Thus India record a CAD of around 4.9%, depleting its Forex reserves and depreciating the rupee.
  7. 7. Import V/s Export - 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Export($M) Import($M)
  8. 8. Foreign Capital Inflows .
  9. 9. Lower Capital Inflows  Although India has emerged as an attractive investment destination which can woo foreign capital from FII and deposit from Non residents in the long term, but it is still not enough to make up for deficit.  Further the uncertainty and delay in our commitment to economic reforms, retrospective taxes, and policy paralysis within the government have created a fear in mind set of global investor resulting into decline of foreign Investment.  In 2012-13, India received FDI of $22.4bn against $ 35.1 bn in the PY. (38%less).
  10. 10. Economic growth and Devaluation Pressure After annual economic growth of nearly 9.30% in 2010-11, the growth rate has declined to 6.20% in 2011-12 and further to 5.00% in 2012-13. The expectations for 2013-14 are also not too encouraging.
  11. 11. Economic Growth and Inflation  In this scenario, most foreigners as well as Indians tend to take money abroad, or keep it away from India.  Global investors are also nervous about investing abroad in nations such as India due to the economic crisis in their respective countries.  That has added further selling pressure on the rupee.  Importers demand for dollars to cater for their needs to buy goods abroad.  Exporters cannot bring in enough dollars; in fact, they keep their foreign earnings abroad as they expect the rupee to fall further.  Meanwhile, foreign investors increase the demand for dollars as they convert their rupee assets into dollars to take their money out.  This demand-supply gap between the dollar and the rupee leads to further devaluation.
  12. 12. The Rupee’s weakness is more due to high imports than anything else. Decreasing Imports and improving Exports is the panacea for long term.
  13. 13. Measures to be adopted to curb the continuing slide of Indian Currency  Measures to Control Current Account Deficit  Measures to Increase Foreign Capital Inflows  Measures to Revive Economic Growth
  14. 14. Measures to Control CAD  Growing Indian economy has led to widening of current account deficit as imports of both oil and non-oil products have risen. Despite dramatic rise in software exports, current account deficits have remained elevated.  The first set of measure should include a careful evaluation of the import tariff structure and increase it wherever such levels are lower than WTO requirement.  Curb on Import of non essential & unproductive products such as GOLD by imposing higher taxes.
  15. 15. Measures to Control CAD  To reduce import we should bring in import substitution by supporting the domestic organizations by providing subsidy, tax benefits, grants and proper Infrastructure.  In this regard National Manufacturing policy will play a major role in years to come.  To contain the current account deficit we should also focus on boosting exports by export promotion policies and looking for more stable longer term foreign inflows have been suggested as ways to alleviate concerns on current account deficit.  Subsidy on import products such as oil should be discontinued.
  16. 16. Measures to Increase foreign Capital Flows  Recession in developed economies and uncertain political Environment made big institutions to pull out their money from India.
  17. 17. Measures to Increase foreign Capital Flows • Government can create a stable political and economic environment. Providing infrastructure and local support to the investors is another, admittedly more difficult avenue that can be explored in this regard. • One of the measures being looked at is allocating a separate quota for sovereign wealth funds (SWF) in PSU divestment issues. This reservation could be as high as 30 percent. • Making government bonds available to non-resident investors will also increase the inflow of dollars in to the country. • RBI can ease capital controls by increasing the FII limit on investment in government and corporate debt instruments and introduce higher ceilings in ECB’s.
  18. 18. Measures to Revive Economic Growth  Apart from above measures to Control Current Account deficit and increase foreign Capital flows, on time policy executions and strict laws to curb corruption will also help us to revive the economic growth at fast pace. Conclusion  Companies should be encouraged to raise fund overseas, foreign direct policy will be liberalized further, and there should be curb on import of non essential products.  Apart from the above measures a lot depends on the Global economic outlook and the future of Euro zone which will also determine the future of INR.
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  20. 20. Impact on Indian Trade  Controlling Import by Import Substitution will help the domestic organization in growth resulting into favorable impact on Indian Trade.  Relaxing Foreign Investments norms will help Indian companies to expand and start new businesses.  Clear cut structure of tax and other laws & transparent policies will also have positive impact on trade.