Forecasting flight traffic at Eurocontrol in unprecedented times business analytics

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A presentation on how Eurocontrol is using SAS to forecast flight traffic. See http://www.business-analytics.biz

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  • Recent Growth 22 August 2007 www.eurocontrol.int/statfor
  • Forecasting flight traffic at Eurocontrol in unprecedented times business analytics

    1. 1. Forecasting Flight Traffic at Eurocontrol in Unprecedented Times Dr David Marsh Manager, Forecasting and Analysis EUROCONTROL Andrew Pease Analytics Solutions Manager SAS EMEA Data Management and Analytics CoE
    2. 2. Let’s take a ride…
    3. 3.
    4. 4. Eurocontrol Gonna’ Work It Out….
    5. 5. European Air Traffic Management <ul><li>Responsibility of States </li></ul><ul><li>Charging of aircraft operators </li></ul><ul><li>Cost-recovery </li></ul><ul><li>Collaborative </li></ul><ul><li>Design goals for the 2020 System </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Capacity handle 3 times traffic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Safety factor 10 improvement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Environment - 10% effects / flight </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Costs to airspace users - 50% </li></ul></ul>
    6. 6. Challenge: Eurocontrol customers need more forecasts to plan, manage and decide <ul><li>Air traffic organisations </li></ul><ul><li>Law-makers and regulators </li></ul><ul><li>Airlines </li></ul><ul><li>Airports </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturers </li></ul><ul><li>Research institutes and universities </li></ul><ul><li>Banks & other financial institutions </li></ul><ul><li>Others </li></ul><ul><li>Globally </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Air traffic management in Europe : €7 Billion / year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Air transport delays: €6 Billion in 2006 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Of which, air traffic: €1 Billion </li></ul></ul></ul>
    7. 7. Constantly Growing Challenge Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Medium-Term Forecast Statistics Short-Term Forecast Forecast Monitor Industry Monitor Long-Term Forecast Traffic Analysis Facts-on-Demand Service Unit Forecast
    8. 8. First Technical Challenge: Combining Data on 10m Flights Per Year Flight Plans - scheduled - actual Radar Data <ul><li>Landings, </li></ul><ul><li>Take-Offs </li></ul><ul><li>agreed slots </li></ul><ul><li>actual </li></ul>Airlines Air traffic control Airports & States Flight Datawarehouse Statistics Forecasts Analysis
    9. 9. Second Technical Challenge: Generating Thousands of Forecasts Original Seasonal Trend-Cycle Irregular
    10. 10. Third Technical Challenge: Regularly Publishing Results in Reports
    11. 11. Solution <ul><li>Delegation </li></ul><ul><li>Consolidation </li></ul><ul><li>Simplification </li></ul><ul><li>Systematisation </li></ul><ul><li>Above all </li></ul><ul><li>Automation </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis </li></ul>
    12. 12. Back To Forecasting: Three Forecasts, Many Techniques Trends Economy Low-Cost Carriers Airport Capacity High-Speed Train Load Factors, Aircraft Size Price Demography, Hubbing Free Trade, Open Skies Environment... + + Short- Term Medium- Term Long- Term 1 – 2 years 7 years 20 years
    13. 13. Short-Term Challenge: What is trend? What is noise? <ul><li>Time series </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Future is like the past </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Exceptions? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Repetitions? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Significant? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Calendar </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Days in month, working days </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Easter + </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Holidays </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Strikes </li></ul><ul><li>Weather </li></ul><ul><li>Football, rugby, Olympics </li></ul><ul><li>Timetables, Schedule changes </li></ul><ul><li>Volcanoes, Storms </li></ul><ul><li>SARS, Bird Flu, Mexican Flu </li></ul><ul><li>Kosovo </li></ul><ul><li>Sep 11 th </li></ul><ul><li>Oil price </li></ul><ul><li>Delays </li></ul><ul><li>New systems </li></ul><ul><li>Mergers </li></ul><ul><li>Deregulation </li></ul><ul><li>Visa rules </li></ul><ul><li>Aircraft deliveries </li></ul><ul><li>New runways etc, etc </li></ul>
    14. 14. Importance of different factors in Long-Term Forecast
    15. 15. Conclusions <ul><li>Eurocontrol has growing forecasting demands </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasting team is the same size </li></ul><ul><li>Able to use more data </li></ul><ul><li>Using more analytic techniques </li></ul><ul><li>To automatically generate thousands of forecasts </li></ul><ul><li>And allow analysts to spend time....analyzing </li></ul>

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