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Dr. Larry Swanson


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Trends and Factors Affecting Economies and Business Success
in Western Montana

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Dr. Larry Swanson

  1. 1. Trends and Factors AffectingTrends and Factors AffectingEconomies and Business SuccessEconomies and Business Successin Western Montanain Western MontanaDr. Larry SwansonDr. Larry SwansonO’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain WestO’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain WestThe University of MontanaThe University of MontanaStatus of Economic RecoveryPopulation Growth and AgingRecent and Future Job Growth PatternsPositioning for Growth and ChangeMontana Business Success ForumMontana Business Success ForumMissoula, MT, May, 2013Missoula, MT, May, 2013
  2. 2. Unemployment Ratesfor Montana vs. theU.S. as a wholeThe chart shows monthlyunemployment rates forMontana versus nationally overa very long period covering the‘80s, ‘90s, and since 2000. Thenation seems to experience amajor recession, or economicslowdown, about every tenyears. The current one officiallystarted in December of 2007.Unemployment nationally hit apeak in October of 2009 when itreached 10.0%. It has beenratcheting down since and fell toas low as 7.5% in April of 2013,which is the most recent data.Unemployment in Montana hasconsistently remained belownational unemployment andreached a peak of 6.8% in July of2010 where it remained forseveral months. It was 6.7% inAugust of 2011. The last timeMontana had unemploymentthis high was in the late ‘80s.More recently unemployment inMontana has been falling, andwas 5.6% in March, 2013, a fulltwo percentage points lowerthan nationally.Based upon monthly unemployment data, there is evidence of slow economic recovery nationally sincelate in 2009. While unemployment in Montana has remained consistently below the nation, the rate ofunemployment has been steadily falling since late in 2011. So, unemployment in Montana has stayedwell below the unemployment rate nationally and recovery is well established.Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Over Time: MT vs. U.S., 1980-2013 (Mar.)82.1292.603.607.509.1011.883.307.31.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%11.0%12.0%80.180.1081.782.483.183.1084.785.486.186.1087.788.489.189.1090.791.492.192.1093.794.495.195.1096.797.498.198.1099.700.401.101.1002.703.404.104.1005.706.407.107.1008.709.410.110.1011.712.413.1Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsU.S.MT
  3. 3. Month-to-Month Changein Employment LevelsNationally and inMontanaThe top chart shows monthlychange in non-farm employmentacross the U.S. since the beginningof 2006 – about a five-year period.The lower chart shows the samedata for Montana.The slowdown in the economynationally revealed itself as a troughin employment change over aperiod from about May of 2008through December of 2009. Therecovery can be seen as beginningwith employment growth in Januaryof 2010. This employment growthhas largely continued since,although there have been monthswhere employment nationwidedipped once again. Employmentchange in Montana is shown in thelower chart. State employmentdecline began early in 2008 andcontinued through 2009. Recoverybegan early in 2010, but thisrecovery can be seen as “fragile,”and monthly growth in employmentis not assured, as occurred in morerecent months.U.S. Monthly Employment Change, Seasonally Adjusted, 2006-2013 (April)(thous)07.1113.412.910.409.1109.1-1,500-1,000-50005001,00006.106.406.706.1007.107.407.707.1008.108.408.708.1009.109.409.709.1010.110.410.710.1011.111.411.711.1012.112.412.712.1013.113.4Montana Monthly Change in Seasonally Adjusted Employment, 2006 - 2013 (Mar.)13.111.510.207.1106.12 11.1111.708.609.1009.1-3,300-2,200-1,10001,1002,20006.106.406.706.1007.107.407.707.1008.108.408.708.1009.109.409.709.1010.110.410.710.1011.111.411.711.1012.112.412.712.1013.113.4
  4. 4. Trends in QuarterlyGrowth in PersonalIncome in Montana andNationwideAnother way of gauging conditionsin the economy as a whole is byviewing quarter-to-quarter changesin total personal income. The chartat the right shows percentagechanges in nominal income for boththe U.S. and Montana from 2002through the 4thquarter of 2012 (themost recent data nationally).Here it is easy to see the impact onincome growth that resulted in themost recent economic slowdown.Personal income tends to grownationally at about one to twopercent a quarter (nominal growth),when the economy is functioningwell. In some particularly goodquarters, it can even grow as fast as3% - which it did nationally in thefirst quarter of 2008.However, after that time, incomegrowth plunged into negativeterritory and this slide bottomed outin the first quarter of 2009.Quarter-to-Quarter Personal Income Change, Montana vs. US, 2002 - 2012 (4th Q)2012.42011.22010.12008.22009.12008.1-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%2002.22002.32002.42003.12003.22003.32003.42004.12004.22004.32004.42005.12005.22005.32005.42006.12006.22006.32006.42007.12007.22007.32007.42008.12008.22008.32008.42009.12009.22009.32009.42010.12010.22010.32010.42011.12011.22011.32011.42012.12012.22012.32012.42013.12013.2Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce (nominal change)U.S.MontanaWhile income growth nationally and in Montana is once again positive. This growth remains uncertainon a quarter-by-quarter basis. Economy recovery is occurring, but it is fragile, particularly when viewingincome change.
  5. 5. Unemployment Ratesamong Rocky MountainWest StatesThis chart shows unemploymentrates, seasonally adjusted, forMontana and the U.S. as a whole inrelation to other states in the RockyMountain West, including Colorado,Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming.All states in the region havefollowed the general trend inunemployment that has beenoccurring nationally. Theunemployment rate rose to higherlevels that other RMW states,approaching that of the nation as awhole. Unemployment in Montana,Wyoming, and Utah has been lowerthan that of both Colorado andIdaho.In the last year or more,unemployment has been fallingfairly markedly in all of the RMWstates. So, there is generalimprovement in the unemploymentpicture nationally and regionally. In2007 prior to the national recession,unemployment in Utah, Wyoming,and Idaho had fallen below 3.0%.This is very low unemployment andcould return in the next two tothree years.Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Among Rocky Mountain West States, 1980-2013 (Mar.)09.1007.300.1192.689.382.1203.707.41.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%11.0%80.180.1081.782.483.183.1084.785.486.186.1087.788.489.189.1090.791.492.192.1093.794.495.195.1096.797.498.198.1099.700.401.101.1002.703.404.104.1005.706.407.107.1008.709.410.110.1011.712.413.1Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsU.S. MT WYID CO UT
  6. 6. Regional and Sub-Regional Patterns inU.S. UnemploymentThe maps show varying levelsof unemployment across theUnited States. The top mapshows county-levelunemployment prior to theeconomic slowdown, whichbegan in 2007 (July, 2006).The lower map showsunemployment in October of2009 when unemploymentnationally peaked at around10%. In 2006 Montana andits surrounding region hadfairly tight labor markets andlow unemployment rates. Itwas a time when wage andsalary rates had begun to risemore rapidly in Montana thannationally. As the recessiondeepened in 2008 and 2009,unemployment deepened andspread. Unemployment ratesin the central and northernPlains region have been thelowest throughout.July, 2006October, 2009
  7. 7. Unemployment Trends inMissoula & Ravalli Cos.,1992 – 2013The top chart shows monthly totalsof the number of personsunemployed in both Missoula andRavalli Counties over time. In bothcounties, unemployment reached itslowest level in September of 2006and then increased to hit peaks inJanuary of 2011. Unemploymenthas been gradually working its waydown since then, but remains high.The lower chart showsunemployment rates for both ofthese counties. Unemployment inRavalli County rose to as high as11% in January of 2011. Morerecently it was just above 8%.In Missoula County, theunemployment rate never rose ashigh as 8% and is now at around 6%.Total Unemployment, Missoula Co., 1992 - 2013 (March)06.911.106.911.105001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,00092.593.293.1194.895.596.296.1197.898.599.299.1100.801.502.202.1103.804.505.205.1106.807.508.208.1109.810.511.211.1112.8MissoulaRavalliMonthly Unemployment Rate, Missoula & Ravalli Cos., 1992-201311.10.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%92.593.293.1194.895.596.296.1197.898.599.299.1100.801.502.202.1103.804.505.205.1106.807.508.208.1109.810.511.211.1112.8MissoulaRavalli
  8. 8. Labor Force andEmployment Growth inMissoula & Ravalli Cos.,1992 to 2013The top chart shows month-to-month change in the total numberof persons in the labor force ofMissoula County and the totalnumber of these that wereemployed. The lower chart showsthe same information for RavalliCounty.Both counties experienced almostuninterrupted labor force andemployment growth from the early‘90s until the recent recession,which hit Missoula County inNovember of 2008 and hit RavalliCounty in June of the same year.Employment then slumped in bothcounties until stabilizing in 2010.While employment is now growingagain in Missoula County, RavalliCounty employment growthremains slow.Missoula Co. Labor Force & Employment, 1992-201308.1109.130,00035,00040,00045,00050,00055,00060,00065,00092.592.1293.794.294.995.495.1196.697.197.898.398.1099.599.1200.701.201.902.402.1103.604.104.805.305.1006.506.1207.708.208.909.409.1110.611.111.812.312.10Labor ForceEmployedRavalli Co. Labor Force & Employment, 1992-2013 (Mar.)08.609.27,0009,00011,00013,00015,00017,00019,00021,00092.593.193.994.595.195.996.597.197.998.599.199.900.501.101.902.503.103.904.505.105.906.507.107.908.509.109.910.511.111.912.513.1Labor ForceEmployed
  9. 9. Employment Growthamong U.S. States,1998 to 2008This chart compares therelative rate of growth inemployment among all statesduring this recent ten-yearperiod.Nationally, total employmentgrew by 14.7% between 1998and 2008, keeping in mind thatthe national economicrecession officially began inDecember, 2007.Employment grew by 21.4% inMontana during this period,ranking it 8thamong all statesin employment growth.Employment growth among allfive of the Rocky MountainWest states was fairly strongduring this period. In fact allfive states ranked among thetop ten in employment growth.Percentage Growth in Total Employment (All Jobs) among States, 1998 to 200814.7%20.3%21.4%28.0%29.3%30.1%44.8%0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%MichiganOhioIndianaWestVirginiaMississippiIllinoisIowaMissouriKansasMassachusettKentuckyArkansasNebraskaLouisianaWisconsinRhodeIslandPennsylvaniaAlabamaTennesseeMinnesotaConnecticutMaineOklahomaVermontNewYorkNorthDakotaCaliforniaUSSouthDakotaDelawareNewJerseyOregonNewHampshireDist of ColumNorthCarolinaSouthCarolinaVirginiaMarylandHawaiiWashingtonAlaskaNewMexicoColoradoGeorgiaMontanaTexasFloridaIdahoWyomingUtahArizonaNevada
  10. 10. Labor Force Expansion Patterns Nationwide
  11. 11. Areas of RapidPopulationGrowth orDeclineThe maps show the largerpatterns of populationgrowth in the last twodecades. Growth inMontana is heavilyfocused in the west, butgrowth in the larger regionhas slowed in the morerecent decade andconcentrated.
  12. 12. Population Trends OverTime in Missoula andRavalli CountiesThe population of Missoula Countyin July, 2011, is estimated at110,138. This is up from 109,443 in2010 (gain of 695) which was upfrom 108,717 in 2009 (gain of 726).Ravalli County’s 2011 estimate is40,450, up only slightly from 40,343in 20101 (gain of 107) which was upfrom 39,956 in 2009 (gain of 387).In both counties, growth wasrelatively strong in the ‘70s, slowedand flattened in the ‘80s, and thenstrong again in the ‘90s. Between2000 and 2011, the rate of growthslowed considerably. Annualpercentage growth in the counties isshown in the lower chart.Annual population growth inMissoula County was 1.5% in 2008,but each year since has been lessthan one percent. It should rangefrom .5 to 1.0% a year over the nextfive years. Ravalli County is likely togrow at a similar annual rate.Total Population Over Time, Missoula & Ravalli Counties, 1969 - 2011110,13858,47276,35293,15177,99540,45034,04125,06824,42614,543020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,00069717375777981838587899193959799010305070911MissoulaRavalliYearly Percentage Pop. Change in Missoula & Ravalli Cos., 1970 - 20112.0%78, 7.0%94, 5.9%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%70727476788082848688909294969800020406081012Missoula Ravalli
  13. 13. Population Growth inMissoula and RavalliCounties Over Time inRelation to GrowthStatewide in MontanaThis chart show annual percentagechange in the total populations ofRavalli and Missoula Counties incomparison to growth by Montanaas a whole.In most years, population growth inthe two counties greatly exceedsgrowth statewide, with most ofMontana’s population growthoccurring in the western mountainregion.Annual % Population Change: MT vs. Missoula & Ravalli Cos., 1980 - 2011-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12Source: U.S. Census Bureau July 1 EstimatesMissoula Ravalli .Montana
  14. 14. Area PopulationDistribution inMontana and theLarger Region:2010This map shows populationmapped at the Census“block” level using 2010Census data. In 2010approximately 78% ofMontanans lived within 50miles of the state’s sevenlargest cities or urbancenters, up from 73% in2000.Going forward, populationgrowth will continue toconcentrated near thesecenters and economic andemployment growth inMontana will beincreasingly “urban incharacter.”
  15. 15. Populationwithin 50 Milesof Major Cities in2000At the time of the 2000Census, Montana had apopulation of about902,000 people. Themap shows thedistribution of thispopulation in Montanaand surrounding areas.Of the 902,000 stateresidents, a little over670,000 lived within 50miles of Montana’sseven largest cities orurban centers,including Billings(142,000), Missoula(141,000), Kalispell(95,000), Great Falls(87,000), Bozeman(83,000), Helena(68,000), and Butte(67,000). This largely“urban-basedpopulation”represented about 74%of Montana’s entirepopulation state-wide.
  16. 16. Area PopulationDistribution inMontana and theLarger Region:2010 This map shows population mapped at the Census “block” level using 2010 Census data.  In 2010 approximately 78% of Montanans lived within 50 miles of the state’s seven largest cities or urban centers, up from 73% in 2000.   Going forward, population growth will continue to concentrated near these centers and economic and employment growth in Montana will be increasingly “urban in character.”
  17. 17. Population Distributionin Montana withinUrban 50-Mile ZonesThe upper chart shows the totalnumber of people residing within 50miles of Montana’s seven major citiesin 2000 and ten years later in 2010. Thepopulation within 50 miles of Billingsgrew from 142,000 in 2000 to over161,000 in 2010, an increase of almost20,000. This area population forMissoula grew from 140,000 to almost160,000.The lower chart focuses on growth inthese area populations over this recentten-year period with some of thefigures reduced from those in the map,to account for areas where the circlesoverlap (and double count populationsin these overlapping areas).The Bozeman urban zone had thelargest increase at 22,400, followed byincreases in Billings, Missoula, andKalispell – all with gains of 18,000 to20,000. Helena also had a significantincrease. These five urban andurbanizing centers accounted fornearly all of the state’s populationgrowth in this most recent ten-yearperiod between Censuses.Population within 50-Mile Zones of Major Cities, 2000 vs. 2010141,972 140,87095,54183,02468,144161,389 159,603113,817105,44187,41277,68667,106229,961050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000Billings Missoula Kalispell Bozeman Great Falls Helena Butte Rest of MTSource: Swanson using Census data (there is some overlap in these zones by several cities)2000 2010Population Growth by Zone, 2000 to 201022,41719,41718,733 18,2769,54275153-5,00005,00010,00015,00020,00025,000Bozeman Billings Missoula Kalispell Helena Great Falls Butte Rest of MT
  18. 18.    
  20. 20. Labor ForceDistribution inMontana, West-to-East and Urban-to-Rural The upper chart shows how the labor force was distributed across Montana prior to declines in the labor force and employment brought on by the economic downturn.  Counties are arrayed in the chart from left (western counties) to right (eastern counties), with counties in the central front in the middle.  Within each of these three groupings, counties are also arrayed from urban (most populated counties and counties nearby them) to rural (less populated and isolated).   The lower chart shows how the labor force grew across these regional county groupings from January of 2000 to August of 2008.   In this recent period of economic growth in Montana, labor force expansion has been heavily nearby the urban centers.Labor Force Distribution in Montana, West-to-East, Urban-to-Rural, Aug. 2008CUSTERGLACIER HILLLAKERAVALLILEWIS & CLARKFLATHEADGALLATINMISSOULACASCADEYELLOWSTONE010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000MISSOULAGALLATINFLATHEADLEWIS&CLARKRAVALLISILVERBOWLAKEPARKLINCOLNJEFFERSONCARBONBEAVERHEADSANDERSSTILLWATERMADISONDEERLODGESWEETGRASSPOWELLBROADWATERMINERALGRANITEMEAGHERYELLOWSTONECASCADEGLACIERFERGUSBIGHORNTETONTOOLECHOUTEAUPONDERAMUSSELSHELLWHEATLANDJUDITHBASINGOLDENVALLEYPETROLEUMHILLCUSTERRICHLANDDAWSONROSEBUDROOSEVELTVALLEYBLAINEPHILLIPSFALLONSHERIDANMCCONEPOWDERRIVERDANIELSCARTERLIBERTYGARFIELDPRAIRIEWIBAUXTREASURELabor Force Expansion by Montana Counties, January, 2000, to August, 2008S WEET G R A S SMA D IS O NPA R KR IC HLA NDSILV ER B O WR A V A LLILEW IS & C LA R KFLA THEA DG A LLA TINM ISSO U LAG LA C IERC A SC A D EY ELLO W STO N E-2,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000MISSOULAGALLATINFLATHEADLEWIS&CLARKRAVALLISILVERBOWLAKEPARKLINCOLNJEFFERSONCARBONBEAVERHEADSANDERSSTILLWATERMADISONDEERLODGESWEETGRASSPOWELLBROADWATERMINERALGRANITEMEAGHERYELLOWSTONECASCADEGLACIERFERGUSBIGHORNTETONTOOLECHOUTEAUPONDERAMUSSELSHELLWHEATLANDJUDITHBASINGOLDENVALLEYPETROLEUMHILLCUSTERRICHLANDDAWSONROSEBUDROOSEVELTVALLEYBLAINEPHILLIPSFALLONSHERIDANMCCONEPOWDERRIVERDANIELSCARTERLIBERTYGARFIELDPRAIRIEWIBAUXTREASURE
  21. 21. Labor Force Distribution in Montana, West-to-East and Urban-to-RuralThe chart below shows how the labor force in Montana was distributed across the state’s counties prior to declines in the labor force andemployment brought on by the economic downturn. Counties are arrayed in the chart from left (western counties) to right (easterncounties), with counties in the central front region in the middle. Within each of these three regional groupings, counties are also arrayedfrom urban (most populated counties and counties nearby them) to rural (less populated and isolated).Labor Force Distribution in Montana, West-to-East, Urban-to-Rural, Aug. 2008CUSTERGLACIER HILLLAKERAVALLILEW IS & CLARKFLATHEADGALLATINMISSOULACASCADEYELLOW STONE010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000MISSOULAGALLATINFLATHEADLEWIS&CLARKRAVALLISILVERBOWLAKEPARKLINCOLNJEFFERSONCARBONBEAVERHEADSANDERSSTILLWATERMADISONDEERLODGESWEETGRASSPOWELLBROADWATERMINERALGRANITEMEAGHERYELLOWSTONECASCADEGLACIERFERGUSBIGHORNTETONTOOLECHOUTEAUPONDERAMUSSELSHELLWHEATLANDJUDITHBASINGOLDENVALLEYPETROLEUMHILLCUSTERRICHLANDDAWSONROSEBUDROOSEVELTVALLEYBLAINEPHILLIPSFALLONSHERIDANMCCONEPOWDERRIVERDANIELSCARTERLIBERTYGARFIELDPRAIRIEWIBAUXTREASURE
  23. 23. Montana’s 2010 Population Distribution, West-to-EastIn interpreting past and future job growth patterns in Montana it important to view how the state’s population is distributed from west-to-east and between urban areas and rural. The chart shows the total population of each county in 2010, with western counties to theleft, central front counties in the center, and eastern plains counties at the right. Montana’s seven urban counties are color-coded in darkblue (Yellowstone), dark green (Missoula and Cascade), and dark yellow (Flathead, Gallatin, Lewis & Clark, and Silver Bow).Montana 2010 Population Distribution, West-to-East & Urban-to-RuralPARKLINCOLNLAKESILVER BOWRAVALLILEW IS & CLARKGALLATINFLATHEADMISSOULAGLACIERCASCADEYELLOW STONECUSTERHILL020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000MISSOULAFLATHEADGALLATINLEWIS&CLARKRAVALLISILVERBOWLAKELINCOLNPARKSANDERSJEFFERSONCARBONDEERLODGEBEAVERHEADSTILLWATERMADISONPOWELLBROADWATERMINERALSWEETGRASSGRANITEMEAGHERYELLOWSTONECASCADEGLACIERBIGHORNFERGUSPONDERATETONCHOUTEAUTOOLEMUSSELSHELLWHEATLANDJUDITHBASINGOLDENVALLEYPETROLEUMHILLCUSTERROOSEVELTRICHLANDROSEBUDDAWSONVALLEYBLAINEPHILLIPSSHERIDANFALLONLIBERTYDANIELSPOWDERRIVERMCCONEGARFIELDPRAIRIECARTERWIBAUXTREASURE
  25. 25. Past and ProjectedTrends in AnnualBirths & Deaths inMontanaThe chart shows annual birthsand deaths in Montana datingback to the mid-40s andextending up through 2011 (actualrecords). Birth estimates for 2012through 2030 are from projectionsmade by the U.S. Census Bureauin 2005. Death projections aremade by Swanson and are basedupon projections for the size ofthe 65 and older population infuture years and on past andfuture estimates of deaths as afunction of the 65 and olderpopulation.The number of persons 65 andolder in Montana is projected toincrease by about 70% from 2010to 2025 and this increase is whataccounts for the steady and rapidrise in the annual number ofdeaths. Persons born in 1957 atthe height of the birth in Boomerswere 53 in 2010 and will be 63 in2020 and 73 in 2030. So, as the Boomer generation continues to age over time past their 60sand into their 70s and beyond, annual deaths will rise with this trendslowing sometime after 2030.Annual Births and Deaths in Montana - Actual (1945-2011) and Projected (2012-2030)4573990682571025304,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00045 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29Source: Actual (Montana Vital Statistics, 2011) and Projected (births, U.S. Census Bureau, March, 05; deaths:Larry Swanson, OCRMW)Actual ProjectedDeaths Projected
  26. 26. PopulationAging inMontana The top chart belowshows the population ofMontana at the time ofthe 2000 and 2010Censuses arrayed by thenumber of persons ateach age, from youngestto oldest. The state’soverall population grewfrom 902,195 to 989,415during this period; anincrease 87,220 or 9.7%.Growth the previousdecade of the ‘90s was12.8% and growthprojected for 2010 to2020 is around 8%(Swanson, Apr., 2012).Growth is slowing inpart because thepopulation is aging andthis can be seen below.The lower chart thenlooks at change inpopulation by age.Montanas Populaton by Single Age, Youngest-to-Oldest, 2000 vs. 2010154285+255206,00012,00018,00024 ,000036912151821242730333639424548515457606366697275788184Source: U.S. Population Censuses2000 2010Montana Population Change by Single Age, 1990-2000 & 2000-2010481785+35827-6,000-4,000-2,00002,0004,0006,0008,00003691215182124273033363942454851545760636669727578818490-00 00-10
  27. 27. Projected Shifts inthe Population ofMontana by AgeThe upper chart shows howpopulation changed inMontana by single age fromyoungest to oldest between1990 and 2000. The lowerchart shows how populationis projected to change by theU.S. Census Bureau (March,2005, projections) between2000 and 2010.The growth in population thatwas concentrated amongpersons between their early40s and late 50s in the ‘90s isprojected to be concentratedbetween persons in their early50s to late 60s in the currentdecade.The echo population also willcontinue to age, shiftinggrowth to persons betweentheir early 20s and mid-30s.And during the currentdecade the “echo-echo”population will come intobeing, reflected in the recentincrease in births.Montana Population Change by Age: 1990 to 2000024681012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284-5,000-2,50002,5005,0007,500Montana Projected Pop. Change by Age: 2000 to 2010024681012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284-5,000-2,50002,5005,0007,500
  28. 28. Projected Popu-lation Growth byAge in the NextDecade – 2010 to2020The chart at the rightshows how Montana’spopulation is projected tochange by age between2010 and 2020. Duringthe next decade growthin the state’s populationwill shift to persons intheir early 60s to late 70sand Montana is in factprojected to have one ofthe largest populations65 and older as a percentof its total by 2020.The echo group or thechildren of boomers isshown in growth amongpersons from their early30s to mid 40s. However,this echo group isprojected by the CensusBureau to be muchsmaller than the boomergroup. In turn, the “echo-echo” group is projectedto be much smaller thanthe echo group.As we look out in front of us, we can see that population growth will continue to manifest itself inripples and waves, with each successive wave of growth smaller than its immediate predecessor.This pattern of growth has significant implications. The fastest growth will occur among seniorsand health care demand will continue to rise and housing needs will change. The number ofpersons at will move up and down at ages where college students are primarily drawn, as well asfor high schools and elementary schools. The labor force of Montana will very likely shrink in sizein the future as more and more persons leave the workforce for retirement and there are notenough persons entering the workforce to replace them.Montana Projected Pop. Change by Age: 2010 to 2020024681012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284-5,000-2,50002,5005,0007,500
  29. 29. Future PopulationChange in Montanaby Age GroupProjected aging of Montana’spopulation over the next 20 yearscan be viewed by examining howthe population is expected tochange by age grouping. The upperchart shows the population under18 (high school and younger), thepopulation 18 to 33 (young post-high school adults and those atages of family formation andchildrearing), the population 34 to49 (young and middle-age adults),the population 50 to 64 (older adultsat pre-retirement ages), and thepopulation 65 and older.The older adult working agepopulation between 50 and 64,which saw massive growth in the‘90s will also see very high growthin the current period beforebeginning a decline. And the 65and older population, which grewby only 13% in the ‘90s, will growby 20%, 46%, and 27% in thesubsequent three decades.As a result of these age shifts,Montana will have one of thelargest populations over 65 of anystate in the country in future years.Projected Montana Population by Age Group215,516215,351191,309160,909192,115129,243247,769100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000220,000240,000260,000280,00004 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 20050-17 18-33 34-49 50-64 65+Projected Percent Pop. Change by Age Grouping, Montana3%-8%3%-4%0%10%-14%-5%22%-13%9%-1%39%49%-4%-8%13%20%46%27%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%90-00 00-10 10-20 20-300-1718-3334-4950-6465+
  30. 30. Regional Patterns ofPopulation Aging inthe U.S. – 65 andOver Population as ashare of the total The 65 and older population in Montana was 13.3% of the total in 1990, 13.4% in 2000, and 14.8% in 2010. By 2020 this will rise to 20% and to nearly 24% by 2025.   Some areas are growing older more rapidly and this aging process will accelerate over the next 20 years as more and more “boomers” move past 65 years of age.   Population aging will slow the growth in the labor force.  [Note: data used in the maps are from the 1990 and 2010 Population Censuses] 
  31. 31. Population AgingAmong RockyMountain West StatesThe chart shows the percent ofthe total population 65 and olderfor five Rocky Mountain Weststates and for the U.S.All of the Rocky Mountain Weststates have been addingpopulation through net in-migration and, sometimes, thiscan result in the population of anarea being “younger” than otherswithout such in-migration. But itdepends upon what age groupsthe in-migrants and out-migrantsare from. Montana and Wyomingare tending to age more rapidlythan other Rocky Mountain statesbecause they both have tended toadd older adults (boomers) whilelosing younger adults, and thishas tilted their overall ageprofiles.Montana’s population is currentlyoldest among these five stateswith 14.6% of the total 65 andolder. By 2030 this is projected toincrease to nearly 26%.The U.S. population as a whole is aging and this aging will accelerate as thelarge boomer population continues to age. The 65 and older population willincrease from around 13% in 2010 to almost 20% nationwide in 2030.Past & Projected Population Aging for Mountain West States, 1990 - 203010.9%9.0%12.4%14.8%12.4%13.0%16.5%13.2%18.3%25.8%26.5%19.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Colorado Utah Idaho Montana Wyoming U.S.Source: Population Censuses & U.S. Census Bureau Projections (2005)90 00 10 30
  32. 32. States ordered byPopulation that is 65and olderThe chart shows the percent ofthe total population of each statein 2010 and 1990 that is 65 yearsof age and older. States in theRocky Mountain West are shownwith purple bars for their 2010values. Southwestern states areshown with gold bars.Montana’s 65 and olderpopulation rose to 14.8% of thetotal in 2010, up from 13.3% in1990. By contrast Colorado’srose from 10.0% to 10.9%.The share of the population 65and older did not increase in all ofthe states between these twoyears, largely because the largeboomer population is onlyreaching age 65 and older inrecent years. However, goingforward into the future, thiselderly population will grow morerapidly and its share of the totalwill rise in almost all of the states.U.S. States by 65 & Older Population as Share of Total, 2010 & 199017.3%13.8%13.2%12.4%10.9%9.0%12.4%14.8%0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%UtahTexasGeorgiaColoradoCaliforniaDistr of ColNevadaVirginiaMarylandLouisianaWashingtonIdahoWyomingIllinoisMississippiMinnesotaNorth CarolinaIndianaKansasNew MexicoKentuckyTennesseeNew JerseyNebraskaOklahomaNew YorkNew HampshireSouth CarolinaWisconsinAlabamaMichiganMassachusettsArizonaOregonMissouriOhioConnecticutSouth DakotaDelawareArkansasRhode IslandNorth DakotaVermontMontanaIowaPennsylvaniaMaineWest VirginiaFloridaSource: Population Censuses20101990
  33. 33. Employment Trendsby Major Sector inMontana, 1990-2010Understanding where the economymay be going in the future must startwith the path of job growth andchange in recent years. The chartshows total employment levels forthe 24 major sectors of the economyover the last two decades. Retailtrade is Montana’s largest employeramong sectors with totalemployment (all full and part-timejobs) exceeding 70,000, althoughmany jobs in this sector are less thanfull-time. Health care services is nextwith around 68,000 total jobsfollowed by accommodations andfood services (lodging facilities andfood service stores, etc.), then localgovernment (all city and countygovernment as well as local publicschools), and then construction (allconstruction including buildings,heavy construction, and specialtrades). Total employment inMontana (including all full- and part-time jobs) grew by 28% in the ‘90s ascompared with 20% growthnationwide, and by over 12% in themost recent decade (2000-10), ascompared to only 5% growthnationally.Total Employment by Major Sectors of the Montana Economy, 1990 to 2010010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,00090 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce (includes all full- and part-time employment)Retail TradeHealth Care servAccom & Food servLocal GovtConstructionOther ServicesProf & Tech servReal Estate servFarm/RanchAdmin & Waste svState GovtFinance & InsurM anufacturingArts,Ent,Recr servWholesale TrTranspt & WarehsgFed Civil GovtAll M iningInformation servU.S. M ilitaryEducation servForest & Ag servUtilitiesM anagemt serv
  34. 34. Total Job Growth inMontana by MajorSector, 1998-2008The chart isolates change in employmentin each of the 24 major sectors leading upto and into the recent economic recession,which officially began nationally inDecember of 2007. This chart shows usthe path Montana’s economy was on overthis recent ten-year period, prior to thedownturn.The largest increase in jobs among sectorswas by construction where jobs grew by16,200, accounting for 15.4% of all newjobs - construction also was among thesectors hardest hit by the recentrecession. Jobs in health care servicesgrew by 15,400 (14.6% of all new jobs).Jobs in real estate services increased by11,900 (11.3% of all new jobs), and inprofessional and technical services by11,700 (11.1% of jobs), and inadministrative and waste services by9,200 (8.8% of jobs). These five majorsectors together – construction, healthcare, real estate services, professional andtechnical services, and administrative andwaste services - accounted for 61% of allnew jobs in Montana over this period.Three “trade” sectors (shown in orange)were next in line, together adding 20,000jobs or about 19% of the total.Total Employment Growth by Major Sector of the Montana Economy, 1998 to 20085275409439481,0002,4932,7162,8334,1704,4064,9215,8827,0367,4059,20911,65611,87915,38416,165-3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000Farm & RanchManufacturingForest & Ag servU.S. MilitaryUtilitiesTranspt & WarehsgManagemt servWholesale TrInformation servFed Civil GovtLocal GovtState GovtEducation servRetail TradeAll Mining & Mng SuptFinance & InsurOther ServicesArts,Ent,Recr servAccom & Food servAdmin & Waste svProf & Tech servReal Estate servHealth Care servConstruction
  35. 35. Employment inMontana by Sub-sector Groupings,2008There are 87 individual economicsub-sectors and these are shownby major “groupings” in thechart. Within each grouping,sub-sectors are arrayed by totalemployment.Sub-sectors are color-coded asfollows: “teal” (professional,business, and financial services),“blue” (health care), “yellow”(government), “orange” (trade),“dark red” (construction),“black” (manufacturing),“white” (transportation),“purple” (petro refining and oiland gas), “brown” (all othermining and mining support),“brown-green” (wood products),and “green” (ag).Total Employment in Montana by Sub-sector Groupings in 200829,15930,28525,93918,53539,62925,98046,23614,81320,21021,18726,39134,3500 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000Fa rm & R anc hA g S erv ice sF o res try S ervPa p er M fgW o o d Pro d M fgM ining S up p o rt s e rvM ining e xc O &GO il & G as ExtrPe tro leum Pro d M fgPip e line T rans p tU tilitiesW arehs ig / s to ra g eA ir T rans p tT rans it & G ro und T ranp tT ra ns p t S up p o rt s e rvC o uriers / me s s e ng e rsR ail Tra ns p tT ruck T ra ns p tO ther T ra ns p Eq up M fgLea ther M fgT extile Pro d M fgEle c. Eq uip M fgA p p a rel M fgPlas tics M fgM o to r V e h M fgPrim M e tals M fgC o mp uters , Elect M fgB eve ra g e M fgC he mic al M fgN o nmeta ls M fgF urniture M fgPrinting M fgM achine ry M fgF ab r M eta ls M fgM is c el M fgF o o d M fgHe av y C o ns trB uild ing s C o ns trS p ec T rad e C o ntrLes s o rs o f intang a s s e tsR .E. R ent/ leas ing s ervR ea l Es tate s ervM us eums , z o o s , p arksM o v ie T hea tersEle ctro nic s R etlFurniture / Ho me R e tlHea lth C a re Sto res R e tlC lo thing R e tlS p o rting , M us in R etlG as o S tatio ns R etlPers o na l & laund ry s erv ice sB ld g M a t/ G ard en R e tlPerfo rming a rts / s p o rtsM is c el R etlN o ns to re R etlM o to r V e h R etlR ep air Se rvFo o d S to res R etlPriva te ho us eho ld s e rvG en M erch R etlLo d g ing (ho te ls / mo tels )A mus e mt, g a mb ling , re cre aFo o d & D rinking p la cesW ho le s ale trad eU .S . M ilitaryFe d C ivilian G o vtSta te G o vtLo c al G o vt, inc l p ub e dN urs ing / re s id ential care facilS o cial a s s is ta nceHo s p ita lsA mb ulato ry he alth s e rvO ther Info S ervC entral b anks , fund s , trus tsIS Ps / s ea rch/ d a ta p ro ces gW as te M ang mt S ervB ro a d ca s ting b us ine s s e sM ana g ement S ervPub lis hing b us ines s esT ele co mmunic atio nsS ecurities / Inv es tmentsEd uc atio n S ervIns uranc e b us ines s esB anks & C red it Ins tM e mb e rs hip o rg aniz atio nsA d minis trativ e S ervPro fes , T ec h S ervS o urc e : S wa ns o n us ing B EA , U.S . C o m m e rc e da ta (inc lude s a ll full- a nd pa rt-tim e jo bs )
  36. 36. Total EmploymentGrowth inMontana by Sub-sector, 1998-2008This chart focuses on “jobgrowth” only for each sub-sector across these groupingsfrom 1998 to 2008 – the timeperiod leading up to the recenteconomic slowdown. Itcaptures how employment waschanging prior to theslowdown.Of the 87 sub-sectors, the onewith the biggest increase in jobswas “Professional, scientific andtechnical services” (legalservices, accounting,bookkeeping, architectural,engineering, computer,research, advertising, etc.,services). “Real estate services”had the second biggestincrease.Total Employment Growth in Montana by Sub-sector, 1998 - 2008-2,9454,44210,14810,9995,0485,9254,5775,7069,17111,543-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000F arm & R a nchA g S ervic esF o re s try S ervW o o d Pro d M fgPap er M fgM ining S up p o rt s ervM ining exc O &GO il & G as ExtrPetro leum Pro d M fgPip eline Trans p tU tilitiesT ruc k T rans p tR ail T rans p tA ir Trans p tW arehs ig / s to ra g eT ra ns it & G ro und T ranp tC o uriers / mes s e ng er sTra ns p t S up p o rt s e rvPrim M etals M fgF urniture M fgN o nmeta ls M fgPlas tics M fgB ev era g e M fgC o mp ute rs , Elect M fgO the r T ra ns p Eq up M fgPrinting M fgT ext ile Pro d M fgA p p arel M fgLeather M fgC hemica l M fgEle c. Eq uip M fgM is ce l M fgM o to r V eh M fgF o o d M fgM achinery M fgF ab r M eta ls M fgHeavy C o ns trB uild ing s C o ns trSp e c Trad e C o nt rLes s o rs o f intang a s s e tsR .E. R e nt/ le as ing s e rvR eal Es tate s ervN o ns to re R etlG as o St atio ns R etlM o vie T heatersF o o d S to res R e tlM us eums , z o o s , p arksEle ctro nics R etlSp o rting , M us in R etlC lo thing R etlR e p air S ervHealth C a re S to re s R e tlM o to r V eh R etlM is ce l R etlF urniture / Ho me R etlPers o na l & la und ry s ervic esPrivate ho us eho ld s ervB ld g M at/ G ard e n R e tlLo d g ing (ho tels / mo tels )Perfo rming arts / s p o rtsG en M erc h R etlA mus e mt, g amb ling , rec reaF o o d & D rinking p lacesW ho les ale trad eU .S . M ilitaryF ed C iv ilian G o v tLo cal G o v t, incl p ub edS tate G o vtN ur s ing / res id ential care facilHo s p italsS o cial as s is tanceA mb ula to ry hea lth s ervPub lis hing b us ines s esO ther Inf o S e rvB ro ad cas ting b us ines s esC entral b anks , fund s , trus tsW as te M ang mt S er vIS Ps / s e arch/ d ata p ro ces gT eleco mmunica tio nsM a nag e ment Se rvSecurities / Inves tmentsIns urance b us ines s esB a nks & C red it Ins tM emb ers hip o rg aniz at io nsEd uca tio n S ervA d minis trative S ervPro fes , T ech S ervS o urc e : S wa ns o n us ing B EA , U.S . C o m m e rc e da ta (inc lude s a ll full- a nd pa rt-tim e jo bs )
  37. 37. Total Employment inMontana’s EnergySectors Considerable attention has beenfocused on the role that energyindustries can play in Montana’seconomy and this will continue toplay out. The chart at the rightshows total employment for severalof the major energy industries inMontana, including electric and gasutilities, oil and gas extraction,mining support businesses,petroleum refineries, coal mining,and pipelines.The chart only shows annual datathrough 2010 but it can be seen thatemployment has grown in someareas – oil and gas and miningsupport – while declining orremaining somewhat stagnant inothers.The lower chart shows how much ofthe state’s employment isaccounted for by these energysectors. In 2010 they accounted foronly 1.8% of all jobs. While up fromas low as 1.3% a few years ago, thisis still less than the 2.1% in 1990.Jobs Over Time for Energy-Related Sectors of the Montana Economy, 1990 to 201005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,50090 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce & MT Dept of Labor & IndustryAllfull-&part-timejobsOil & GasextractionElectric,gas, &sanitaryservMiningSupportServ, incloil,gas,coalPetroleumRefineriesCoal mining(estimates)Petro &N.GasPipelinesEnergy-Related Sectors Employment as Share of Total Employment, 1990 to 20101.8%1.3%2.1%0%1%2%3%90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
  38. 38. Labor EarningsLevels amongEnergy-Related Sub-sectors in Montana,1990 to 2009Annual labor earningsreceived by persons workingin these energy-related jobsare shown in the chart inmillions of 2005 inflation-adjusted dollars.While employment among thestate’s utilities has fallenfrom levels in the mid-‘90s,labor earnings for theseworkers have generally risenand reached a high of $340million in 2009, up fromaround $250 million at thebeginning of the decade.Labor earnings by oil and gasworkers reached $237 millionin 2008, before falling back to$202 million in 2009. Theseare significantly higher thanlevels in the ‘90s.Labor earnings in mining support activities and petroleum refining also have increasedsteadily over most of the last ten years, with refinery workers receiving labor earnings of$188 million in 2009. Mining support workers received $146 million in 2009 afterreceiving $203 million in 2008, both significantly higher levels than in the ‘90s.Labor Earnings for Energy-Related Sectors of the Montana Economy, 1990 to 2009$0$50$100$150$200$250$300$350$40090 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09Source: BEA, U.S. Commerce & MT Dept of Labor & IndustryMillionsof2005DollarsElectric, gas,& sanitaryservOil & GasextractionPetroleumRefineriesMining SupportServ, incloil,gas,coalCoal mining(estimates)Petro & N.GasPipelines
  39. 39. Wage & SalaryEmployment vs.Self-employment(Proprietors) inMontanaThe chart shows annualemployment counts for allworkers in Montana, bothself-employed and wage andsalary or payroll employment.The second line shows thetotal number employed as“wage and salary workers.”The time period shown is 1980through 2010. Montanaexperienced steadyemployment growth most ofthe last two decades leadingup to the recent recession,with total employmentgrowing by 28% in the ‘90s ascompared to 20% nationally.The lower chart shows thepercent of total employmentby wage and salary workers.Wage and salary jobs currentlyrepresent a little less thanthree-fourths (73% in MT vs.78% nationally) of all jobs inMontana and their share oftotal employment has beengradually decreasing.Employment in MT Over Time: Total vs. Wage & Salary Workers Only, 1980-2010390,752415,921536,721641,850299,427 307,913395,794468,5390100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,00080 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10Source: BEA, U.S. Commercetotal employmentwage & salaryworkers onlyWage & Salary Jobs as a Share of All Jobs Over Time in Montana77.9%74.0% 73.7% 73.0%25%35%45%55%65%75%85%80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
  40. 40. Deconstruction of the MDLI Industry Jobs Projections The 2010 estimates used in making the 2020 projections were broken down into more detailed industries with ownerships separated as in the BEA industry employment data.  Estimates for 2000 up to 2010 were examined and then these trends were compared with projections going forward to 2020.  The chart at the right shows these breakdowns.   Private healthcare is the largest employer among these 22 industries and it grew through the recent recession.  Retail trade is 2nd largest but it is not projected to return to its peak employment level in 2008 until 2019.  The construction industry, shown in red, had peak employment in 2007 of 32,000 jobs but it won’t grow back to this until after 2020.Recent Past & Projected Employment by Major Industry, 2000 to 2020015,00030,00045,00060,00075,00000020406081010E12p14p16p18p20PSource: Swanson, using MDLI data, estimates, and projectionsHealth Care & Social Assist(priv)Retail TradeLocal Govt. (incl. ed. & health)Accommodation & FoodServicesState Govt. (incl ed. & health)Admin & Waste ServicesProfess & Tech ServicesOther Services, ex. Public AdmWholesale TradeFinance & InsuranceFed Civilian Govt (incl PO)Arts, Entertainment, RecreationTransportation & WarehsgInformationReal Estate, Rental, LeasgEducational Serv (priv)UtilitiesManagemt of comp./entrep.ConstructionManufacturingMiningAgr, Forestry, Fishg & Huntg
  41. 41. Expected Job Growthin Montana by MajorCategoryThe chart shows recently projectedjob growth for Montana for twomajor categories of the economy –services-producing activities andgood-producing activities (this lattercategory includes manufacturing,construction, and natural resourceand mining sectors, while all othersare included in services). Theseestimates and projections are fromMontana’s Department of Labor andIndustry (MDLI) and jobs are asdefined in BLS data-gathering - theyonly include primary jobs of thoseemployed. Excluded from these areanother 44,000 jobs by self-employed and unpaid family workers(primary jobs). The total number ofthese jobs in Montana is projected toincrease from about 421,000 in 2010to just over 474,000 in 2020 - anincrease of over 53,000 jobs and12.6%. This compares with a recentprojection by the U.S. Bureau ofLabor Statistics of 14.8% for thenation as a whole.Eighty percent of all these new jobsare projected to be in “services-producing” areas of the economy.This compares with 99% of all newjobs nationwide as projected by BLS.Projected Total Job Levels in Montana, 2010 to 202050,411370,536420,94761,089413,027474,1160 50 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 150 ,0 0 0 2 0 0 ,0 0 0 2 50 ,0 0 0 3 0 0 ,0 0 0 3 50 ,0 0 0 4 0 0 ,0 0 0 4 50 ,0 0 0 50 0 ,0 0 0Goods-Producing JobsServices-Producing JobsAll Jobs (excl. self-employed & unpaid familyones)Source: MT Labor & Industry data & estimates2020 Proj2010 EstProjected Job Growth by Major Type, 2010 to 202010,67842,49153,1690 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000Goods-Producing JobsServices-Producing JobsAll Jobs (excl. self-employed & unpaid family)
  42. 42. Recent Trends inConstructionIndustry TotalEmployment inMontana The top chart shows levels ofemployment in Construction,Mining, and Trucking inMontana since 1990.Construction led employmentgrowth in Montana’s economyduring much of its relativelyunparalleled economicexpansion in the ‘90s andleading up to the nationalrecession. And constructionemployment peaked in 2007 oneyear after constructionemployment peaked nationally.Construction employment paledstate employment in mining andtrucking. The lower chart showsemployment in several sub-sectors within construction andmining. Within constructionthose employed as “special tradecontractors” was the singlebiggest area of employment withmuch of this tied to housingconstruction in Montana.Montana Industry Employment Trends: Construction, Mining, Trucking1007015,00030,00045,00060,00090 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10Allfull-&part-timejobsAll ConstructionAll MiningAll Truck transportSubsector Employment Trends in Construction and Mineral ExtractionSpecialty tradecontractorsConstruction ofbuildingsHe a vy & c ivile n gin e e ring c onst010,00020,00030,00040,00090 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10Specialty trade contractorsConstruction of buildingsHeavy & civil engineering constMining (exc oil & gas)Oil & gas extractionMining support activities
  43. 43. Montana’s CurrentHousing Stock The total number of housingunits in Montana in 2009 was441,279 (July, 2009, U.S.Census). The top chart showswhen these units were built,from earliest to latest.Of the total, nearly 196,000were built prior to 1970 – over44% of the total. Another 20%were built prior to 1980. Sonearly two-thirds of all housingunits in Montana were builtprior to the last great “energycrisis”, the one in the early ‘80swhen crude oil prices brieflyspiked to over $35 a barrel.The number of homes builtsince 1998, totals 39,600 – lessthan 10% of the total.Older homes are much morelikely to have been built withmuch less focus on energyefficiency. Older homes needto aggressively retro-fitted withincreasingly cost-effective andmoney-saving energymeasures.Housing Units in Montana in 2009 by Period Built72,28577,71145,75189,74054,32061,88127,83011,761010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000100,000Before 1940 1940 - 1959 1960 - 1969 1970 - 1979 1980 - 1989 1990 - 1998 1999 - 2005 2005 - 2009Source: U.S. Census 2000Montanas Current Housing Stock by Period BuiltBefore 1940, 16.4%1940 - 1959, 17.6%1960 - 1969, 10.4%1970 - 1979, 20.3%1980 - 1989, 12.3%1990 - 1998, 14.0%1999 - 2005, 6.3%2005 - 2009, 2.7%Before 19401940 - 19591960 - 19691970 - 19791980 - 19891990 - 19981999 - 20052005 - 2009
  44. 44. Construction Rise and Fall .. Recovery and ChangeConstruction jobs peaked in 2007 in Montana at over 32,000 primary jobs and these had fallen to less than 23,000 by2010. Projections by the Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry is that these jobs will gradually recover to only around30,000 by 2020, 2,000 jobs less than the 2007 peak.Total construction employment (all full- and part-time jobs) totaled 54,000 in 2007 and these had fallen to less than42,000 by 2010.The “housing boom” spurred construction to previously unheard of levels in Montana and the U.S. and it is unlikelythat even as this industry recovers, it will look the same as the one at the peak in the housing bubble. For one thing, somuch of construction was tied to single family housing development and, because of population aging, we are unlikelyto have rapidly rising demand for single family housing construction over the next ten to twenty years.Energy Conservation Investments: While the construction industry will recover slowly, it also will change. Much moreemphasis will be given to future construction on existing homes tied to energy conservation – increased insulation,window and door replacements, installation of more energy-conserving heating and cooling equipment andappliances.If $10,000 were invested in energy conservation measures in half the homes in Montana that were built prior to 1990,this would be on 170,000 homes for a total of $1.7 billion. This is equivalent to building 10,000 new homes at$170,000 each. Similar cost-effective energy investments could be made in commercial and governmental structuresthroughout the state.Investments in Restoration: Montana’s construction industry’s recovery also can be spurred by investing more publicand private dollars in environmental and natural resource restoration. Montana is a large state with hundreds of sitesand thousands of acres of land where such resources have been badly damaged and degraded. There is growinginterest in the restoration of these damaged resources and much needs to be learned about the potential jobs thatmay be required, and the training and education necessary for more workers to move successfully into these jobs.
  45. 45. Employment Trendsin Montana byMajor “Segments”of the EconomyThe chart below groups the 24major sectors of the economyinto eleven larger “segments”and levels of employment amongthese since 1990 are shownbelow. These charts providepictures of employment growthleading up to the recenteconomic slowdown. When youcombine professional, technicalservices with financial servicesand several other servicesinvolving “business services”(like administrative services,management services,information services, etc.), thesetogether are Montana’s singlelargest employer among majorsegments. This segment alsoadded the most jobs, as shownbelow.Total Employment by Major "Segments" of the Montana Economy, 1990 to 2010020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,00090 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10Source: BEA, U.S. Comm erceP ro f,Tech,Fin&B us Serv (6)Who lesale &Retail Trade (2)Constructio n &Real Estate (2)A rts, Ent, Recr,A cco m, Foo d(2)Health CareServices (1)Fed & StateGovt (3)Local Govt, inclschools (1)M anuf., Transpt,Utilities (3)Other Services(1)Farm, Ranch,A g Serv (2)A ll M ining &M ining Serv (1)Total Employment Growth by Major Segment of the Montana Economy, 1998 to 20082,4933,4464,4065,1135,88214,44115,38428,04430,107-10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000Farm, Ranch, Ag Serv (2)Manuf., Transpt, Utilities (3)Local Govt, incl schools (1)Fed & State Govt (3)All Mining & Mining Serv (1)Wholesale & Retail Trade (2)Other Services (1)Arts, Ent, Recr, Accom, Food (2)Health Care Services (1)Construction & Real Estate (2)Prof,Tech,Fin&Bus Serv (6)
  46. 46. Adjusted Jobs Projections for Montana by Major Industry The MDLI projections were carefully analyzed and adjusted in a number of areas.  The biggest adjustment was in the assumed growth in healthcare services that is likely between 2010 and 2020.   Healthcare jobs are projected to grow at 34% nationally and MDLI’s projection of 15% growth was adjusted upward to 25%, largely because the 65 and older population will increase by 50% during this period. The MDLI projection for manufacturing job growth was lowered.  Most of the losses have been in wood products and primary metals and these jobs may not return.  Manufacturing nationally will continue to decline.  Mining jobs were adjusted higher by a small number.Montana Employment by Industry Grouping: 2000, 2010, 2020 Adjusted Projections4,3866,86716,38422,7747,45314,13515,89220,40839,49745,11739,17355,94270,37162,5484,5958,06717,88429,9957,81614,80817,64322,62041,77943,58649,30267,02276,55178,1850 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000Ag, Forestry, Fishing, HuntingMiningManufacturingConstructionGOODS-PRODUCINGINDUSTRIESInformationTranspt., Warehsg, UtilitiesOther ServicesFinancial ActivitiesEducational Services(pub/priv)All Govt.(less ed/health)Profes. & Business ServicesLeisure & HospitalityTrade (retl/whol)Healthcare & Social Asst.(pub/prv)Source: Swanson, using MDLI estimates and projections2020 proj2010 est2000
  47. 47. Projected JobGrowth inMontana byIndustry Grouping– Adjusted With the adjustment tohealthcare, it is projected toadd 15,600 new jobsbetween 2010 and 2020, a25% increase. Leisure andhospitality will add over11,000 new jobs – the MDLIprojection. Professional andbusiness services will addover 10,000 jobs (MDLIprojection). Constructionwill add over 7,000.Under these projections andadjustments, total jobs inMontana will rise to almost480,000 – an increase of59,000 with almost 83% ofthese new jobs in services.Jobs in all aspects of mining,including oil and gas, wouldincrease by only 1,200 jobs,even with an adjustmentupward from MDLI’sestimate.Montana Jobs Growth by Industry Grouping: 2000-10 & 2010-20 (Adjusted)192,178-5,7782,5438,666-4355501,0951,9902,6171,7058,8166,64415,1542091,2001,5007,221-1,5313636731,7512,2122,2826,18010,12911,08015,637-8,000 -4,000 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000Ag, Forestry, Fishing, HuntingMiningManufacturingConstructionGOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIESAll Govt.(less ed/health)InformationTranspt., Warehsg, UtilitiesOther ServicesFinancial ActivitiesEducational Services (pub/priv)Trade (retl/w hol)Profes. & Business ServicesLeisure & HospitalityHealthcare & Social Asst. (pub/prv)SERVICES-PRODUCING INDUSTRIESSource: Swanson, using MDLI estimates and projections (adj. healthcare, manufacturing, mining)10-2000-10
  48. 48. Projected Job Growth in Montana by Major Occupational Groups Projections for future jobs by industry can be generally translated into projections for jobs according to occupational categories and the results of this are shown in the chart.  Job figures in this chart also include over 40,000 jobs not included in the previous analysis by industry that are self-employed and unpaid family primary jobs. Of the 22 major occupational groups, the one with the highest number of jobs in Office and Administrative Support and these are projected to grow to 79,500 jobs by 2020, up from 71,200 in 2010.  Jobs in trade-related occupations also are large in number.  Construction and Extraction jobs will exceed 36,000 by 2020.Montana Employment for Major Occupational Groups, 2010 & 2020 Projected (adjusted)4,8084,7956,3697,9536,9098,3758,6628,85216,12516,42116,84118,79615,85120,43420,56326,89728,01926,83529,99044,72453,62971,1974,8145,2167,5017,7697,8989,1819,5979,99917,54518,62719,72320,16520,53522,41622,84929,02130,31233,17736,44651,71159,12079,5010 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000Farming, Fishing, & ForestryLegal ServicesComputer & MathematicalLife, Physical, & Social SciencesArchitecture & EngineeringProtective ServicesArts, Design, Entertmt, Sports & MediaCommunity & Social ServicesProductionBusiness & Financial OperationsPersonal Care & ServiceManagement servicesHealthcare SupportInstallation, Maintenance, & RepairBuilding & Grounds Cleaning/MaintEducation, Training, & LibraryTransportation & Material MovingHealthcare Practitioners & TechniciansConstruction & ExtractionFood Preparation & Serving RelatedSales and RelatedOffice & Administrative SupportSource: Swanson, using MDLI estimates and projections (adjusted)2020 Projected Emp(Adjusted)2010 Estimated Emp
  49. 49. Projected Job Growth by Occupational Group, 2010 to 2020 This chart focuses on job growth only over the ten-year period into the future.  The total number of jobs will increase by just over 13% and more than 60,000 jobs.  Jobs in Office and Administrative support will grow the most, up by 8,300 or an increase of 12% and accounting for 14% of all new jobs.  If you add the seven largest occupational categories shown in “teal” that are related to professional and business services, these will account for 26% of all new jobs. Job growth in the two occupational areas directly tied to healthcare, shown in blue, will account for over 18% of all new jobs.  Jobs in trade areas (orange) will account for over 25%.Projected Montana Job Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010 to 2020 (Adjusted)-18464218069359891,1321,1471,3691,4201,9822,1242,2062,2862,2932,8824,6845,4916,3426,4566,9878,304-1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000Life, Physical, & Social SciencesFarming, Fishing, & ForestryLegal ServicesProtective ServicesArts, Design, Entertmt, Sports & MediaArchitecture & EngineeringComputer & MathematicalCommunity & Social ServicesManagement servicesProductionInstallation, Maintenance, & RepairEducation, Training, & LibraryBusiness & Financial OperationsBuilding & Grounds Cleaning/MaintTransportation & Material MovingPersonal Care & ServiceHealthcare SupportSales and RelatedHealthcare Practitioners & TechniciansConstruction & ExtractionFood Preparation & Serving RelatedOffice & Administrative Support
  50. 50. Projected JobGrowth NationallyJob growth as projected by theBureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)that is expected nationally foreach of the major occupationalgroups is shown in the chart.Office and administrativesupport is also the largestoccupation nationally and isprojected to grow by 10% andaccount for over 11% of allnew jobs. If you add togetherall of the job growth in areasclosely tied to professional andbusiness services (teal), thesewill account for 28% of all newjobs.Jobs for HealthcarePractitioners and Techs willincrease by 26% and accountfor 10% of all new jobs. Thisalong with jobs in Healthcaresupport occupations willaccount for 17% of all new jobsnationally. Job growth in thethree areas tied to trade willaccount for 21% of all newjobs.Projected U.S. Employment Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010-20 (thousands)1311912533433573655826166647788001,0931,1731,3291,3371,4041,4071,4441,8692,0202,336-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500Farming, Fishing, & ForestryLegalLife, Physical & Social ScienceArchitecture & EngineeringArts, Design, Entertainmt, Sports & MediaProductionProtective ServicesCommunity & Social ServiceManagementBuilding & Grounds Cleaning/MaintenanceComputer and MathematicalInstallation, Maintenance & RepairFood Preparation & Serving RelatedBusiness & Financial OperationsTransportation & Material MovingPersonal Care & ServiceEducation, Training, & LibraryConstruction & ExtractionHealthcare SupportSales & RelatedHealthcare Practitioners & TechnicalOffice & Administrative Support
  51. 51. Total Job Openingsby MajorOccupational GroupNationallyJobs will be available in theeconomy because of growthin the shear number of jobs incertain areas of work. Butmany more openings willoccur because people leavejobs, either throughretirement or movement toanother occupation.The chart here shows thetotal number of “openings”for jobs across the full rangeof occupational groups forthe nation as a whole. Nextto each occupation also isnoted what jobs in thesegroups as a whole pay(median annual wage).Office and administrativesupport has the most jobgrowth as well as the mostjob openings, allowing forreplacements.Projected Total U.S Job Openings by Major Occupational Group, 2010-202913445467981,0671,0981,1961,4381,6552,0262,0422,2312,5552,5682,5832,7603,3983,5913,5975,1036,4547,4500 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000Farming, Fishing, & Forestry ($19,630)Legal ($74,580)Life, Physical & Social Science ($58,530)Architecture & Engineering ($70,610)Arts, Design, Entertainmt, Sports & Media ($42,870)Community & Social Service ($39,280)Protective Services ($36,660)Computer and Mathematical ($73,720)Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maint ($22,490)Installation, Maintenance & Repair ($40,120)Healthcare Support ($24,760)Production ($30,330)Business & Financial Operations ($60,670)Management ($91,440)Personal Care & Service ($20,640)Construction & Extraction ($39,080)Education, Training, & Library ($45,690)Healthcare Practitioners & Technical ($58,490)Transportation & Material Moving ($28,400)Food Preparation & Serving Related ($18,770)Sales & Related ($24,370)Office & Administrative Support ($30,710)Source: BLS, U.S. Dept. of Labor (January, 2012)(Median annual wages for each group in 2010)
  52. 52. Comparison ofMedian AnnualWages for Jobswithin OccupationalGroupsThe 22 occupational groupsare arrayed in the chartaccording to median annualwage as determined innational surveys, with the onewith the highest wage at thetop and lowest at the bottom.Curiously, while jobs in“services” as opposed toproduction andmanufacturing are thought tobe low-paying, jobs in sixoccupations closely alignedwith jobs in professional,administrative, business, andfinancial services have thehighest wages. This reflectsthat jobs in many of theseoccupational areas alsorequire the higher levels ofeducation and training.Major Occupational Groups by Median Annual Wage in the U.S., 2010$18,770$19,630$20,640$22,490$24,370$24,760$28,400$30,330$30,710$36,660$39,080$39,280$40,120$42,870$45,690$58,490$58,530$60,670$70,610$73,720$74,580$91,4400 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000Food Preparation & Serving RelatedFarming, Fishing, & ForestryPersonal Care & ServiceBuilding & Grounds Cleaning/MaintenanceSales & RelatedHealthcare SupportTransportation & Material MovingProductionOffice & Administrative SupportProtective ServicesConstruction & ExtractionCommunity & Social ServiceInstallation, Maintenance & RepairArts, Design, Entertainmt, Sports & MediaEducation, Training, & LibraryHealthcare Practitioners & TechnicalLife, Physical & Social ScienceBusiness & Financial OperationsArchitecture & EngineeringComputer and MathematicalLegalManagementSource: BLS, U.S. Dept. of Labor (January, 2012)
  53. 53. ComparingProjected JobGrowth byOccupational Groupin MT vs. U.S.The chart shows projectedpercentage growth in jobs foreach occupational group inMontana versus nation-wideas projected by BLS.Overall employment will growby 13.1% in Montana versus14.3% nationally. Projectedgrowth is very similar for jobsin construction andextraction, healthcaresupport, healthcarepractitioners, and many otherareas.Percentage Job Growth by Major Occupational Group, 2010-2020, MT vs. U.S.13.1%0.1%7.3%7.9%8.2%8.8%9.6%9.7%11.7%10.2%10.8%11.1%8.8%13.0%13.4%23.6%14.3%15.6%17.1%17.8%29.5%21.5%-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%Life, Physical, & Social Science OccupFarming, Fishing, & Forestry OccupManagement OccupationsEducation, Training, & Library OccupTransportation & Material Moving OccupLegal OccupationsProtective Service OccupationsInstallation, Maintenance, & Repair OccupOffice & Administrative Support OccupSales and Related OccupationsArts, Design, Entertainmt, Sports, & Media OccupBuilding & Grounds Cleaning & Maint. OccupProduction OccupationsCommunity & Social Services OccupBusiness and Financial Operations OccupationsHealthcare Practitioners & Technical OccupationsArchitecture & Engineering OccupFood Preparation & Serving Related OccupPersonal Care & Service OccupationsComputer & Mathematical OccupHealthcare Support OccupationsConstruction and Extraction OccupationsOverall EmploymentSource: U.S. data from BLS and Montana data from MT Dept. of Labor and Industry (adjusted)MTUS
  54. 54. Job Projections forMontana by“Groupings” ofOccupationalGroupsThis chart organizes the 22major occupational groupsand jobs estimated for 2010and projected for 2020(adjusted) into six overallgroupings including: Administrative,Management, Financial Professional, Technical,Scientific, Creative Healthcare and HealthcareSupport Sales, Hospitality, Foodservices, Personal Care Transportation,Production, Construction,Maintenance, Ag andForestryMontana Jobs for Major Occupational Groups by Grouping, 2010 & 2020 Proj (adj) (US med wage)4,81417,54522,41622,84930,31236,44619,72351,71159,1209,1819,99929,02120,53533,1775,2167,5017,7697,8989,59718,62720,16579,5010 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000Farming, Fishing, & Forestry ($19,630)Production ($30,330)Installation, Maintenance & Repair ($40,120)Building & Grounds Cleaning/Maint ($22,490)Transportation & Material Moving ($28,400)Construction & Extraction ($39,080)TRANSPT/PROD/CONST/MAINT/AG/FOR/FISHPersonal Care & Service ($20,640)Food Preparation & Serving Related ($24,370)Sales & Related ($24,370)SALES/HOSPT/FOOD SV./PERSONAL CARE/ARTSProtective Services ($36,660)Community & Social Service ($39,280)Education, Training, & Library ($45,690)EDUC/TRAINING/POLICE& FIRE/SOCIAL SERVHealthcare Support ($24,760)Healthcare Practitioners & Technical ($58,490)HEALTHCARE& HEALTHCARESUPPORTLegal ($74,580)Computer and Mathematical ($73,720)Life, Physical & Social Science ($58,530)Architecture & Engineering ($70,610)Arts, Design, Entertmt, Sports & Media ($42,870)PROFESSIONAL/TECHNICAL/SCIENTIFIC/CREATIVEBusiness & Financial Operations ($60,670)Management ($91,440)Office & Administrative Support ($30,710)ADMINISTRATIVE/MANAGEMENT/FINANCIALSo urc e: S wans o n us ing M D LI es tima te s and pro jec tio ns (S ept. 2011)(adj. to he a lthc are, o ffice /adm in, pro duc tio n, e xtra ct)20202010
  55. 55. Detailed Occupations where jobgrowth will be greatest inMontanaOnly 40 of 840 detailed occupations haveprojected growth for 2010-20 greater than380 jobs. These account for 45% of allprimary jobs in Montana and will accountfor 55% of all job growth and 44% of allreplacement openings.Those in healthcare services have a bluebackground. Those in professional andbusiness services have a light blue or tealbackground. Those in sales and retail tradehave a light brown or tan background.Those in education, training, and communityand protective services have yellowbackgrounds. And those somewhere intransportation, construction, extraction,production, and agriculture have graybackgrounds.The single occupation with the highestprojected growth is “registered nurses,”projected to add over 2,000 jobs. Fourothers in healthcare (blue backgrounds) alsowill add a lot of jobs: home health aides(1,643); nursing aides, orderlies, andattendants (1,416); licensed practical andlicensed vocational nurses (678); dentalassistants (383); and medical assistants(381).1/ Job projections data from the MontanaDept. of Labor & Industry web site (andtheir Sept., 2011, jobs projections)2/ Projections data from MDLI withadjustments made by Swanson (July, 2012)Detailed Occupations with Largest Projected Job Growth in Montana, 2010 -202010 2010-20 2010-20 MT Med. US Med. Education &Detailed Occupation Est/1 Growth/2 Replace/1 Wage/1 Wage/3 Training/3Registered Nurses 8,887 2,098 1,550 $56,790 $64,690 5 1 1Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 12,195 1,732 1,470 $28,830 $34,030 2 1 4Cashiers 13,438 1,678 6,040 $18,500 $18,500 1 1 2Retail Salespersons 15,687 1,672 4,380 $20,920 $20,670 1 1 2Home Health Aides 4,012 1,643 400 $20,920 $20,560 1 1 2Combined Food Prep & Serving Wkrs, Incl Fast Food 9,518 1,635 2,020 #N/A $17,950 1 1 2Waiters and Waitresses 8,772 1,497 4,840 $17,470 $18,330 1 1 2Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 6,486 1,416 650 $23,160 $24,010 3 1 1Carpenters 6,286 1,268 780 $34,500 $39,530 2 1 3Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 4,569 1,085 550 $23,860 $23,400 1 1 2Customer Service Representatives 4,610 1,050 1,450 $28,990 $30,460 2 1 2Personal and Home Care Aides 2,840 941 350 $20,080 $19,640 1 1 2Construction Laborers 3,674 871 250 $33,160 $29,280 1 1 2Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 6,918 826 1,240 $36,460 $37,770 2 3 2Office Clerks, General 5,381 787 730 $23,330 $26,610 2 1 2Cooks, Restaurant 4,058 757 1,040 $19,460 $22,140 1 2 4Accountants and Auditors 3,274 740 550 $47,760 $61,690 6 1 1Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses 3,077 678 960 $35,670 $40,380 3 1 1Medical Secretaries 2,307 675 310 $27,160 $30,530 2 1 4Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 4,879 596 1,120 $20,930 $21,290 1 1 2Receptionists and Information Clerks 3,133 587 850 $22,830 $25,240 2 1 2Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 5,625 584 1,010 $18,240 $19,300 1 1 21st-Line Supers/Managers of Constr Trades & Extrac 2,620 567 510 #N/A $58,680 2 4 1Operating Engineers & Other Constr Equipt Operators 2,571 560 440 #N/A $40,400 2 1 41st-Line Supers/Managers of Office & Admin Pers. 3,695 544 830 #N/A $47,460 2 3 1Electricians 2,075 541 500 $52,130 $48,250 2 1 31st-Line Supers/Managers of Retail Sales Wkers 6,745 534 1,450 #N/A $35,820 2 3 1Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 4,145 521 640 $31,000 $38,460 2 1 4Child Care Workers 4,648 520 1,360 $17,700 $19,300 2 1 2Janitors & Cleaners, Exc Maids & Housekpg Cleaners 8,075 508 1,530 #N/A $22,210 1 1 2Elementary School Teachers, Exc Special Ed 4,786 472 1,090 #N/A $51,660 6 1 5First-Line Supers/Managers of Food Prep/Serv 2,413 455 230 #N/A $29,560 2 3 1Food Preparation Workers 4,151 446 1,490 $16,960 $19,100 1 1 2Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Exc Tech 3,995 441 930 #N/A $52,440 2 1 4General and Operations Managers 5,100 433 1,480 $70,280 $94,400 5 3 2Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 9,976 387 1,340 $26,310 $30,830 2 1 4Security Guards 1,776 385 370 $22,740 $23,920 2 1 1Social and Human Service Assistants 1,483 383 310 $23,310 $28,200 2 1 2Dental Assistants 1,087 383 200 $29,810 $33,470 3 1 2Medical Assistants 1,041 381 120 $27,290 $28,860 2 1 2SUBTOTALS 210,008 33,275 47,360Shares of the Totals 45.4% 55.0% 44.1%Detailed Occupations with Largest Projected Job Growth in Montana, 2010 -202010 2010-20 2010-20 MT Med. US Med. Education &Detailed Occupation Est/1 Growth/2 Replace/1 Wage/1 Wage/3 Training/3Registered Nurses 8,887 2,098 1,550 $56,790 $64,690 5 1 1Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 12,195 1,732 1,470Detailed Occupations with Largest Projected Job Growth in Montana, 2010 -202010 2010-20 2010-20 MT Med. US Med. Education &Detailed Occupation Est/1 Growth/2 Replace/1 Wage/1 Wage/3 Training/3Registered Nurses 8,887 2,098 1,550 $56,790 $64,690 5 1 1Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 12,195 1,732 1,470 $28,830 $34,030 2 1 4Cashiers 13,438 1,678 6,040 $18,500 $18,500 1 1 2Retail Salespersons 15,687 1,672 4,380 $20,920 $20,670 1 1 2Home Health Aides 4,012 1,643 400 $20,920 $20,560 1 1 2Combined Food Prep & Serving Wkrs, Incl Fast Food 9,518 1,635 2,020 #N/A $17,950 1 1 2Waiters and Waitresses 8,772 1,497 4,840 $17,470 $18,330 1 1 2Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 6,486 1,416 650 $23,160 $24,010$28,830 $34,030 2 1 4Cashiers 13,438 1,678 6,040 $18,500 $18,500 1 1 2Retail Salespersons 15,687 1,672 4,380 $20,920 $20,670 1 1 2Home Health Aides 4,012 1,643 400 $20,920 $20,560 1 1 2Combined Food Prep & Serving Wkrs, Incl Fast Food 9,518 1,635 2,020 #N/A $17,950 1 1 2Waiters and Waitresses 8,772 1,497 4,840 $17,470 $18,330 1 1 2Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 6,486 1,416 650 $23,160 $24,010 3 1 1Carpenters 6,286 1,268 780 $34,500 $39,530 2 1 3Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 4,569 1,085 550 $23,860 $23,400 1 1 2Customer Service Representatives 4,610 1,050 1,450 $28,990 $30,460 2 1 2Personal and Home Care Aides 2,840 941 350 $20,080 $19,640 1 1 2Construction Laborers 3,674 871 250 $33,160 $29,280 1 1 2Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 6,918 826 1,240 $36,460 $37,770 2 33 1 1Carpenters 6,286 1,268 780 $34,500 $39,530 2 1 3Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 4,569 1,085 550 $23,860 $23,400 1 1 2Customer Service Representatives 4,610 1,050 1,450 $28,990 $30,460 2 1 2Personal and Home Care Aides 2,840 941 350 $20,080 $19,640 1 1 2Construction Laborers 3,674 871 250 $33,160 $29,280 1 1 2Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 6,918 826 1,240 $36,460 $37,770 2 3 2Office Clerks, General 5,381 787 730 $23,330 $26,610 2 1 2Cooks, Restaurant 4,058 757 1,040 $19,460 $22,140 1 2 4Accountants and Auditors 3,274 740 550 $47,760 $61,690 6 1 1Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses 3,077 678 960 $35,670 $40,380 3 1 1Medical Secretaries 2,307 675 310 $27,160 $30,530 2 1 4Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 4,879 596 1,120 $20,930 $21,290 1 12Office Clerks, General 5,381 787 730 $23,330 $26,610 2 1 2Cooks, Restaurant 4,058 757 1,040 $19,460 $22,140 1 2 4Accountants and Auditors 3,274 740 550 $47,760 $61,690 6 1 1Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses 3,077 678 960 $35,670 $40,380 3 1 1Medical Secretaries 2,307 675 310 $27,160 $30,530 2 1 4Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 4,879 596 1,120 $20,930 $21,290 1 1 2Receptionists and Information Clerks 3,133 587 850 $22,830 $25,240 2 1 2Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 5,625 584 1,010 $18,240 $19,300 1 1 21st-Line Supers/Managers of Constr Trades & Extrac 2,620 567 510 #N/A $58,680 2 4 1Operating Engineers & Other Constr Equipt Operators 2,571 560 440 #N/A $40,400 2 1 41st-Line Supers/Managers of Office & Admin Pers. 3,695 544 830 #N/A $47,460 2 3 1Electricians 2,075 541 500 $52,130 $48,250 2 12Receptionists and Information Clerks 3,133 587 850 $22,830 $25,240 2 1 2Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 5,625 584 1,010 $18,240 $19,300 1 1 21st-Line Supers/Managers of Constr Trades & Extrac 2,620 567 510 #N/A $58,680 2 4 1Operating Engineers & Other Constr Equipt Operators 2,571 560 440 #N/A $40,400 2 1 41st-Line Supers/Managers of Office & Admin Pers. 3,695 544 830 #N/A $47,460 2 3 1Electricians 2,075 541 500 $52,130 $48,250 2 1 31st-Line Supers/Managers of Retail Sales Wkers 6,745 534 1,450 #N/A $35,820 2 3 1Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 4,145 521 640 $31,000 $38,460 2 1 4Child Care Workers 4,648 520 1,360 $17,700 $19,300 2 1 2Janitors & Cleaners, Exc Maids & Housekpg Cleaners 8,075 508 1,530 #N/A $22,210 1 1 2Elementary School Teachers, Exc Special Ed 4,786 472 1,090 #N/A $51,660 6 1 5First-Line Supers/Managers of Food Prep/Serv 2,413 455 230 #N/A31st-Line Supers/Managers of Retail Sales Wkers 6,745 534 1,450 #N/A $35,820 2 3 1Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 4,145 521 640 $31,000 $38,460 2 1 4Child Care Workers 4,648 520 1,360 $17,700 $19,300 2 1 2Janitors & Cleaners, Exc Maids & Housekpg Cleaners 8,075 508 1,530 #N/A $22,210 1 1 2Elementary School Teachers, Exc Special Ed 4,786 472 1,090 #N/A $51,660 6 1 5First-Line Supers/Managers of Food Prep/Serv 2,413 455 230 #N/A $29,560 2 3 1Food Preparation Workers 4,151 446 1,490 $16,960 $19,100 1 1 2Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Exc Tech 3,995 441 930 #N/A $52,440 2 1 4General and Operations Managers 5,100 433 1,480 $70,280 $94,400 5 3 2Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 9,976 387 1,340 $26,310 $30,830 2 1 4Security Guards 1,776 385 370 $22,740 $23,920 2 1 1Social and Human Service Assistants 1,483 383 310 $23,310 $28,200$29,560 2 3 1Food Preparation Workers 4,151 446 1,490 $16,960 $19,100 1 1 2Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Exc Tech 3,995 441 930 #N/A $52,440 2 1 4General and Operations Managers 5,100 433 1,480 $70,280 $94,400 5 3 2Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 9,976 387 1,340 $26,310 $30,830 2 1 4Security Guards 1,776 385 370 $22,740 $23,920 2 1 1Social and Human Service Assistants 1,483 383 310 $23,310 $28,200 2 1 2Dental Assistants 1,087 383 200 $29,810 $33,470 3 1 2Medical Assistants 1,041 381 120 $27,290 $28,860 2 1 2SUBTOTALS 210,008 33,275 47,360Shares of the Totals 45.4% 55.0% 44.1%2 1 2Dental Assistants 1,087 383 200 $29,810 $33,470 3 1 2Medical Assistants 1,041 381 120 $27,290 $28,860 2 1 2SUBTOTALS 210,008 33,275 47,360Shares of the Totals 45.4% 55.0% 44.1%
  56. 56. Education and training forprojected jobsEducation and training requirements andrequired work experience for these detailedoccupations also is indicated for each of the40 detailed occupations with the greatestprojected increase in jobs.The education column (maroon colorednumbers) indicates the “typical educationrequired for entry” into each of theoccupations. The next column undertraining with the numbers shown in “red”indicates how much experience in related orrelevant work is ordinarily required forentry. The last column with numbers in“blue” indicates years of “on-the-jobexperience” ordinarily required for“competency” in the various occupations.All of these ratings are derived from nationalsurvey work done in conjunction withdevelopment of the SOC system and wasretrieved on the BLS web site.For the 40 detailed occupations with thelargest projected growth in Montana, onlytwo require a college degree – accountantsand auditors (requiring a Bachelor’s degreefor entry or Code 6) and elementary schoolteachers (also requiring a Bachelor’sdegree). Two require an Associate’s degree(Code 5), including registered nurses andgeneral operations managers. So, only fourof the 40 occupations require either anAssociate’s or Bachelor’s degree for entry.The coding system used in the tables for education (typical education required for entry, ascontained in the SOC system) is as follows:Code 1: Less than a high school diplomaCode 2: High school diploma or equivalentCode 3: Postsecondary non-degree awardCode 4: Some college, but no degreeCode 5: Associate’s degreeCode 6: Bachelor’s degreeCode 7: Master’s degreeCode 8: Doctoral or professional degreeOf the 40 detailed jobs with the biggest growth, fully half (20) ordinarily require only a highschool diploma for entry (Code 2). And 13 of the 40 require less than a high school diploma. Thefigure below shows the total number of jobs in Montana in 2010 and 2020 for each educationallevel assigned to each detailed occupation.
  57. 57. The upper chart shows the share of 2020jobs projected for both Montana and theU.S. as a whole by education requirement.Not only are education requirements forMontana jobs not changing much from 2010to 2020, but they are moderately beloweducation requirements for jobs projectednationally by 2020. For example, nationally16 percent of all jobs in 2020 will require aBachelor’s degree versus only 12.2 percentof Montana jobs. On the other hand, theshare of all 2010 jobs requiring less than ahigh school diploma is 29 percent of all jobsin Montana versus 25.2 percent of all jobsnationally. At the highest end of thespectrum the share of jobs requiring adoctoral or professional degree is 2.8percent in Montana versus 3.3 percentnationally.Looking at education requirements of newjobs only projected from growth between2010 and 2020 (lower chart), of theprojected job growth nation-wide, 18.6percent will require a Bachelor’s degree, 2.2percent will require a Master’s degree, and4.5 percent will require a Doctoral orProfessional degree. These are all higherpercentages than for job growth projectedin Montana. Whereas 30.9 percent of allMontana job growth is in jobs requiring lessthan a high school diploma. This compareswith 23.1 percent nationally.Education Requirements for Entry into 2020 Jobs, Montana vs. U.S.29.0%43.7%5.0%0.4%5.6%12.2%1.3%2.8%25.2%43.0%4.7%0.6%5.8%16.0%1.5%3.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%Le s s tha nH .S . D iplo m a(C o de 1)H .S . D iplo m ao r Equiv a le nt(2)P o s ts e c o ndno n-de gre ea wa rd (3)S o m eC o lle ge , node gre e (4)A s s o c ia te sD e gre e(C o de 5)B a c he lo rsD e gre e(C o de 6)M a s te rsD e gre e(C o de 7)D o c to ra l o rP ro fe sD e gre e (8)MT U.S.Fig. 34: Education Required for Projected Job Growth from 2010-20, MT vs. U.S.30.9%39.8%6.4%0.4%5.9%12.0%1.4%3.1%23.1%38.3%5.6%0.7%7.1%18.6%2.2%4.5%0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%Less than H.S. Diploma (Code 1)H.S. Diploma or Equivalent (2)Postsecond non-degree award (3)Some College, no degree (4)Associates Degree (Code 5)Bachelors Degree (Code 6)Masters Degree (Code 7)Doctoral or Profes Degree (8)U.S.MT
  58. 58. Postsecondary education requiredfor Montana job openings asprojectedThere are 23 detailed occupations out of the840 that are projected to have more than400 total openings in Montana between2010 and 2020 and that require post-secondary educations. These are shown atthe right. At the top are ones requiringdoctoral or professional degrees (Code 8)and there are two: Lawyers with projectedopenings totaling 804 and pharmacists withopenings of 416. The U.S. median wage forboth of these exceeds $100,000.Eleven of these require a Bachelor’s degreefor entry (Code 6). These range fromelementary school teachers (1,562openings) and secondary school teachers(1,308) to accountants (1,290), recreationworkers (530), human resource specialists(499), civil engineers (458), computernetwork systems and data communicationsanalysts (411), and child and family socialworkers (404). U.S. median wages for theserange from as high as $77,560 for civilengineers to as low as $22,260 forrecreation workers.Some of these requiring Bachelor’s degreesalso have further requirements to establish“competency,” also shown in the table tothe far right. Those with Code 5 in the bluenumbers are ones where a residency orinternship is ordinarily required to show thiscompetency.Detailed occupations in Figure 36 requiring Associate’s degrees include registered nurses,general operations managers, forest and conservation technicians, construction managers, andcomputer support specialists. Jobs with the most openings that require some type ofpostsecondary, non-degree award include nursing aides, licensed practical and vocationalnurses, dental assistants, and hairdressers and cosmetologists.