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President Trump's Fy 2018 "Skinny Budget" and the American Health Care Act

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Presentation with charts on the fiscal year 2018 budget proposal from President Donald Trump and the American Health Care Act to replace Obamacare

Published in: Economy & Finance
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President Trump's Fy 2018 "Skinny Budget" and the American Health Care Act

  1. 1. CRFB.org
  2. 2. CRFB.org President Trump’s FY 2018 “Skinny Budget” Proposal 1
  3. 3. CRFB.org FY 2018 Defense Hikes Paid For With Non-Defense Cuts 2
  4. 4. CRFB.org Non-Defense Reductions Would Affect Most Agencies 3
  5. 5. CRFB.org Most of the Budget Remains Missing 4
  6. 6. CRFB.org The American Health Care Act 5
  7. 7. CRFB.org Budgetary Effects of the AHCA Source: CRFB calculations based on CBO AHCA score. Billions of Dollars Net Cost of Coverage ProvisionsRepeal ACA Subsidies -$673B Repeal Mandate Penalties $210B -$337B Medicaid Savings -$880B Repeal ACA Taxes $575B Other/Interactions -$111B Promote Coverage $542B -$2,000 -$1,500 -$1,000 -$500 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 Savings Costs Total Deficit Impact $1.33T -$1.66T 6
  8. 8. CRFB.org Source: CRFB calculations based on CBO AHCA score Provision 2017-2026 Cost/Savings (-) Reduce Individual Mandate Penalty to $0 $171 billion Reduce Employer Mandate Penalty to $0 $38 billion Subtotal, End Mandate Penalties $210 billion Repeal ACA Premium and Cost-Sharing Subsidies in 2020 -$673 billion Reduce ACA Medicaid Match to Base Medicaid Rate for “Expansion” Beneficiaries and Establish Per-Capita Caps -$880 billion Other Reductions -$41 billion Coverage Interactions -$70 billion Subtotal, Reduce Spending and Tax Subsidies -$1.66 trillion Establish Flat Age-Adjusted Health Care Tax Credits in 2020 $361 billion Establish Patient and State Stability Fund $80 billion Repeal Disproportionate Share Hospital Payment Cuts (Medicare & Medicaid) $74 billion Expand Health Savings Accounts $19 billion Other Costs $8 billion Subtotal, Increase Spending and Tax Subsidies $542 billion Repeal ACA 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) $158 billion Repeal ACA Health Insurer Tax $145 billion Repeal ACA Medicare Hospital Insurance 0.9% Surtax $117 billion Delay ACA “Cadillac Tax” Start Date from 2020 to 2025 $49 billion Repeal Most Other ACA Tax Increases $106 billion Subtotal, Repeal ACA Taxes $575 billion Total Deficit Impact (Conventional Scoring) -$337 billion 7
  9. 9. CRFB.org Change in Coverage Under AHCA 8 -7M -3M -14M -24M -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 Employer Non-Group/Exchange Medicaid Insured Millions of People in 2026 Source: CBO. Note: non-group includes Basic Health Plan.
  10. 10. CRFB.org Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates: What does that mean for the debt? 9
  11. 11. CRFB.org 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 Projected 10-Year Treasury Yield 3-Month Treasury Yield Percent Yield Historic and Projected Interest Rates Source: CBO January 2017 Baseline, Federal Reserve 10
  12. 12. CRFB.org $229 $223 $241 $270 $295 $332 $380 $435 $492 $550 $604 $657 $714 $768 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Billions of Dollars Net Interest in the CBO Baseline Source: CBO January 2017 Baseline, CRFB Calculations 11

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