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NITLE Prediction Markets, CNI 2008 presentation

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NITLE Prediction Markets, CNI 2008 presentation

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NITLE Prediction Markets, CNI 2008 presentation

  1. 1. Prediction Markets for Emerging Technology in Higher Education: An Experiment in the Wisdom of Crowds Coalition for Networked Information December 2008
  2. 2. Plan of the talk <ul><li>Sketch of prediction markets </li></ul><ul><li>NITLE program history </li></ul><ul><li>Market structure and operations </li></ul><ul><li>Reflections and next steps </li></ul>
  3. 3. NITLE <ul><li>Nonprofit, working to advance technology in liberal education </li></ul>
  4. 4. Prediction markets <ul><li>The original: Iowa Political Stock Market (IPSM) (University of Iowa, Robert Forsythe et al ) </li></ul><ul><li>1988 on: The Iowa Electronic Markets http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/ </li></ul><ul><ul><li>This morning the market was at 50.2 cents for a Clinton share and 48.6 cents for a Bush share, with Perot investors holding die-hard paper. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(The New York Times, August 19, 1992) </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. <ul><li>2008 Presidential election visibility </li></ul>Iowa Electronic Markets, Intrade - 11/04/08 http://b2e.nitle.org/index.php/ 2008/11/04/prediction_markets _forecast_obama_win
  6. 6. Prediction markets <ul><li>Google, sports, Foresight Exchange, many companies, DARPA </li></ul>(Cowgill, Wolfers, Zitzewitz, 2008; http://www.ideosphere.com/ )
  7. 7. Exploration for technology and higher education <ul><li>What program relevance? Connections with NITLE programs and interests: </li></ul><ul><li>Gaming </li></ul><ul><li>Crowdsourcing </li></ul><ul><li>Distributed intelligence (Surowiecki, 2004) </li></ul><ul><li>NITLE communities </li></ul><ul><li>Emergent technologies </li></ul>
  8. 8. Pilot phase <ul><li>Advisory group </li></ul><ul><li>Conference demo (April 2008) </li></ul><ul><li>Segmented markets </li></ul><ul><li>Long-term props </li></ul><ul><li>Select vendor ( http:// inklingmarkets.com / ) </li></ul>(NITLE Summit, San Francisco April 2008)
  9. 9. Pilot <ul><li>Example proposition: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>By what year will the majority of institutions provide a repository service for sharing scholarship and research? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>End of 2010 - 2011 academic year </li></ul><ul><li>End of 2009 - 2010 academic year </li></ul><ul><li>End of 2008 - 2009 academic year </li></ul>
  10. 10. Beta <ul><li>Responses to pilot: unitary market </li></ul><ul><li>Public beta launch (August 2008) </li></ul>
  11. 11. Architecture <ul><li>Web 2.0 approach </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Microcontent </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>AJAX operations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social tools </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Integration with NITLE LET </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tag cloud </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fluid development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>RSS feed </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Centerpiece: series of propositions </li></ul><ul><li>Secondary media: email, blog </li></ul>
  12. 12. Propositions <ul><li>Creation </li></ul><ul><li>Mechanism </li></ul>(SurveyMonkey)
  13. 13. Propositions <ul><li>Creation </li></ul><ul><li>Timing </li></ul>
  14. 14. Propositions <ul><li>Creation </li></ul><ul><li>Language </li></ul>
  15. 15. Propositions <ul><li>Details and price </li></ul>
  16. 16. Propositions <ul><li>Visualization </li></ul>
  17. 17. Propositions <ul><li>Comments </li></ul>
  18. 18. Limitations <ul><li>Being played (Umich; the Soros factor) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Monitor; self-correction </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Black Swan (Nicholas Taleb; Asimov’s Mule) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Environmental scanning </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Risk of apophenia </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Social sifting </li></ul></ul>
  19. 19. Lessons <ul><li>Needs to complement with other futurism methods </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Delphi, scenarios, trend extrapolation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ “ “ “ “ venues and feedback mechanisms (surveys, blog, f2f, email) </li></ul>
  20. 20. Lessons <ul><li>Push-pull dynamic </li></ul><ul><li>Importance of decision criteria </li></ul><ul><li>Different timeline arcs demanded </li></ul><ul><li>Fun was had </li></ul><ul><li>NITLE Liberal Education Today blog </li></ul>
  21. 21. Advantages <ul><li>Continuous, real-time feedback </li></ul><ul><li>Cross-sector appeal </li></ul><ul><li>Insight generator </li></ul>
  22. 22. Advantages <ul><li>Distributed intelligence </li></ul><ul><li>Uncontrolled intelligence </li></ul>(Bryan gets it wrong, part 323)
  23. 23. Further reflections <ul><li>Complexity and analysis </li></ul>(Jesper Krogstrup, ReBoot 2007; image from Lars Ploughmann, on Flickr)
  24. 24. Further reflections <ul><li>Simplicity level </li></ul><ul><li>Pedagogical use </li></ul><ul><li>Campus strategic use </li></ul>
  25. 25. Next steps <ul><li>Continue operations through 20909 </li></ul><ul><li>Add features </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Widgets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expand RSS feeds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inklings and NITLE sides </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Gather feedback </li></ul>
  26. 26. Next steps <ul><li>Inform our programming </li></ul><ul><li>Hopefully be useful to strategic thinking </li></ul><ul><li>Research topics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Market efficiency (price coherence, forecast accuracy) and biases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Usage patterns </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Platform for others’ research </li></ul></ul>
  27. 27. Some sources <ul><li>Cowgill, Wolfers, Zitzewitz, “Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google” (2008) </li></ul><ul><li>Iowa Prediction Markets research papers, http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/archive/references.html </li></ul><ul><li>Pennock, Lawrence, Giles, Nielsen, &quot;The Power of Play: Efficiency and Forecast Accuracy in Web Market Games&quot;, Science 2001 </li></ul><ul><li>Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan (2007) </li></ul>
  28. 28. NITLE Prediction Markets http://markets.nitle.org National Institute for Technology and Liberal Education (NITLE) http://nitle.org Liberal Education Today blog http://b2e.nitle.org

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