Futures2010

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Futures2010

  1. 1. Stories of the Future: <br />Telling Scenarios<br />
  2. 2. Scenarios <br />Stories about futures<br /> Event and response<br />Creativity<br />Roles and times<br />Emergent practices and patterns<br />
  3. 3. Who am I?<br />NITLE senior fellow<br />Social media mainline<br />Future studies <br />
  4. 4. Today’s plan<br />GamifiedReality<br />The Long Great Recession<br />Past Peak Oil<br />WorldBoard<br />
  5. 5. Caveats are mandatory<br />Each scenario can be intertwingled<br />Narrative and/or complexity<br />Not the only futures: climate change, boom time, new age of terror<br />
  6. 6. I: Gamified Reality<br />
  7. 7. Gaming extends throughout everyday life:…literally…practically…conceptually<br />
  8. 8.
  9. 9. Very explicitly about behavior modification<br />
  10. 10. Imperial gamification<br />
  11. 11. Large simulations are normal<br />(political and mundane)<br />
  12. 12.
  13. 13.
  14. 14. II: The Long Great Recession <br />
  15. 15. Federal funding continues<br />
  16. 16.
  17. 17. Turning Japan in the 1990s<br />
  18. 18. Stagnation and decline<br />
  19. 19. Decay sets in, grows<br />
  20. 20. Chronic popular discontent<br />Media battles<br />
  21. 21.
  22. 22.
  23. 23. III: Past Peak Oil<br />
  24. 24.
  25. 25.
  26. 26. “’By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,’ says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.”<br />
  27. 27. Nightmare scenario<br />It gets worse:<br />No full replacements<br />Population and demand grow<br />Costs keep growing<br />Oil is used for:<br />Transportation<br />Food fertilizer<br />Medicines<br />Plastics<br />
  28. 28. Some checks<br />New Saudi Arabias<br />Miracle science<br />Global recession<br />Climate change disasters<br />
  29. 29. Shift to any alternatives<br />
  30. 30. Hoarding and panics <br />
  31. 31. Security state intensifies<br />
  32. 32. Walled gardens proliferate<br />
  33. 33. Military adventures attract<br />
  34. 34. Infrastructure breaks down<br />
  35. 35.
  36. 36. IV: WorldBoard<br />
  37. 37. World of sensor nets<br />
  38. 38.
  39. 39.
  40. 40.
  41. 41.
  42. 42.
  43. 43. Back to 2010<br />
  44. 44. Back to 2010<br />
  45. 45. NITLE<br />http://nitle.org<br />Techne<br />http://blogs.nitle.org/<br />NITLE prediction markets game<br />http://markets.nitle.org/<br />Bryan on Twitter<br />http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander<br />

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