Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
Upcoming SlideShare
Online Trends 2010
Download to read offline and view in fullscreen.


Futures methods, a Horizon Report intro

Download to read offline

Quick overview of futures methods for .edu, leading into Horizon Report intro.

Futures methods, a Horizon Report intro

  1. 1. Catching the Future<br />Before it Catches You<br />∞<br />A 2010 .edu survey<br />
  2. 2. Catching the Future Before it Catches You<br />Extrapolation<br />Scenarios <br />Futures market<br />Environmental scan<br />Delphi<br />
  3. 3. Principles of Forecasting (2001) ( <br />Apprehending the futures<br />
  4. 4. Extrapolation<br />iPhone Apps Store downloads<br />April 2009 1.0 billion<br />July 2009 1.5 billion<br />Sept 2009 2.0 billion<br />-works with data sources<br />-can lead to more data-gathering, metrics<br />
  5. 5. Limitations<br />Trend lines vary<br />Doesn’t account for new things<br />The Black Swan (Taleb, 2007)<br />
  6. 6. Scenarios <br />Stories about futures<br /> Event and response<br />Creativity<br />Roles and times<br />Emergent practices and patterns<br />
  7. 7. Limitations<br />Culture<br />Resources<br />The Black Swan<br />
  8. 8. Futures market<br />Features<br />Advantages<br />Propositions in time<br />Shares to be traded<br />Continuous<br />Distributed feedback<br />Affordances of play<br />
  9. 9. Will 25 or more institutions be participating in Flickr’s Creative Commons project by March 26, 2009?<br />
  10. 10. When will the number of Facebook users hit 200 million? <br />
  11. 11. Limitations<br />Quantitative threshold<br />Physical proximity<br />Market metaphor<br />The Black Swan<br />
  12. 12. Environmental scanning<br />Multiple sources<br />Longitudinal<br />Pattern recognition<br />
  13. 13. Crowdsourcing<br />Different levels<br />Social network<br />Crowd computing<br />Iterated resource feeds<br />
  14. 14. Delphi <br />Assemble experts<br />Probe for opinions<br />Rank and distill ideas<br />Reiterate<br />
  15. 15. Example: the Horizon Report<br />“[A] comprehensive review and analysis of research, articles, papers, blogs, and interviews<br />[We] discussed existing applications and brainstormed new ones.<br />A key criterion was the potential relevance of the topics to teaching, learning, research, and creative expression.<br />Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”<br />
  16. 16.
  17. 17.
  18. 18.
  19. 19. Limitations<br />Groupthink<br />Information compression<br />The Black Swan<br />
  20. 20. Citations<br />iCub,<br />Principles of Forecasting chart,<br />accessCeramics, Lewis and Clark,<br />NassimTaleb,<br />Black Swans: Field Museum Library,; gnuckx cc0,<br />Great California Shakeout,<br />
  21. 21. More citations<br />NITLE Prediction Markets,<br />Cat and kitten,<br />Bing’s Twitter search,<br />EpisilonAurigaecrowdsourcing,<br />Horizon Report 2010 wiki,<br />“Apprehending the Future: Emerging Technologies, from Science Fiction to Campus Reality”, EDUCAUSE Review, vol. 44, no. 3 (May/June 2009): 12–29. More sources there.<br />Wayne Brent, Cyprien Lomas, Ruben R. Puentedura, “Grow Your Own Horizon Report” (Educause conference 2009)<br />
  22. 22. The ultimate links<br />NITLE<br /><br />Techne<br /><br />NITLE prediction markets game<br /><br />Bryan on Twitter<br /><br />
  • johnkellden

    Feb. 7, 2013
  • buckinsand

    Apr. 24, 2010

Quick overview of futures methods for .edu, leading into Horizon Report intro.


Total views


On Slideshare


From embeds


Number of embeds