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Futures methods, a Horizon Report intro

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Quick overview of futures methods for .edu, leading into Horizon Report intro.

Futures methods, a Horizon Report intro

  1. 1. Catching the Future<br />Before it Catches You<br />∞<br />A 2010 .edu survey<br />
  2. 2. Catching the Future Before it Catches You<br />Extrapolation<br />Scenarios <br />Futures market<br />Environmental scan<br />Delphi<br />
  3. 3. Principles of Forecasting (2001) (http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/methodologytree.html) <br />Apprehending the futures<br />
  4. 4. Extrapolation<br />iPhone Apps Store downloads<br />April 2009 1.0 billion<br />July 2009 1.5 billion<br />Sept 2009 2.0 billion<br />-works with data sources<br />-can lead to more data-gathering, metrics<br />
  5. 5. Limitations<br />Trend lines vary<br />Doesn’t account for new things<br />The Black Swan (Taleb, 2007)<br />
  6. 6. Scenarios <br />Stories about futures<br /> Event and response<br />Creativity<br />Roles and times<br />Emergent practices and patterns<br />
  7. 7. Limitations<br />Culture<br />Resources<br />The Black Swan<br />
  8. 8. Futures market<br />Features<br />Advantages<br />Propositions in time<br />Shares to be traded<br />Continuous<br />Distributed feedback<br />Affordances of play<br />
  9. 9. Will 25 or more institutions be participating in Flickr’s Creative Commons project by March 26, 2009?<br />
  10. 10. When will the number of Facebook users hit 200 million? <br />
  11. 11. Limitations<br />Quantitative threshold<br />Physical proximity<br />Market metaphor<br />The Black Swan<br />
  12. 12. Environmental scanning<br />Multiple sources<br />Longitudinal<br />Pattern recognition<br />
  13. 13. Crowdsourcing<br />Different levels<br />Social network<br />Crowd computing<br />Iterated resource feeds<br />
  14. 14. Delphi <br />Assemble experts<br />Probe for opinions<br />Rank and distill ideas<br />Reiterate<br />
  15. 15. Example: the Horizon Report<br />“[A] comprehensive review and analysis of research, articles, papers, blogs, and interviews<br />[We] discussed existing applications and brainstormed new ones.<br />A key criterion was the potential relevance of the topics to teaching, learning, research, and creative expression.<br />Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”<br />
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  19. 19. Limitations<br />Groupthink<br />Information compression<br />The Black Swan<br />
  20. 20. Citations<br />iCub, http://infocult.typepad.com/infocult/2009/09/robot-children-toddle-out-of-the-uncanny-valley.html<br />Principles of Forecasting chart, http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/methodologytree.html<br />accessCeramics, Lewis and Clark, http://accessceramics.org/<br />NassimTaleb, http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/<br />Black Swans: Field Museum Library, http://www.flickr.com/photos/field_museum_library/3405475664/; gnuckx cc0, http://www.flickr.com/photos/34409164@N06/3209135920/<br />Great California Shakeout, http://www.shakeout.org/media/index.html<br />
  21. 21. More citations<br />NITLE Prediction Markets, http://markets.nitle.org/<br />Cat and kitten, http://www.flickr.com/photos/bryanalexander<br />Bing’s Twitter search, http://www.bing.com/twitter<br />EpisilonAurigaecrowdsourcing, http://mysite.du.edu/~rstencel/epsaurnews.htm<br />Horizon Report 2010 wiki, http://horizon.wiki.nmc.org/<br />“Apprehending the Future: Emerging Technologies, from Science Fiction to Campus Reality”, EDUCAUSE Review, vol. 44, no. 3 (May/June 2009): 12–29. http://www.educause.edu/EDUCAUSE+Review/EDUCAUSEReviewMagazineVolume44/ApprehendingtheFutureEmergingT/171774. More sources there.<br />Wayne Brent, Cyprien Lomas, Ruben R. Puentedura, “Grow Your Own Horizon Report” (Educause conference 2009)<br />
  22. 22. The ultimate links<br />NITLE<br />http://nitle.org<br />Techne<br />http://blogs.nitle.org/<br />NITLE prediction markets game<br />http://markets.nitle.org/<br />Bryan on Twitter<br />http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander<br />
  • johnkellden

    Feb. 7, 2013
  • buckinsand

    Apr. 24, 2010

Quick overview of futures methods for .edu, leading into Horizon Report intro.

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