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CLAC 2010: Five Futures for Higher Education


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My intro to my CLAC 2010 talk.
Note the link from slide 11; that's to Prezi, where the bulk of the presentation is. Go there.

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CLAC 2010: Five Futures for Higher Education

  1. 1. Five Ways of Looking at the Liberal Arts Campus in 2015<br />CLAC Conference 2010<br />Dickinson College<br />
  2. 2. Looking<br />back,<br />looking<br />ahead <br />
  3. 3. Futuresresearch<br />Pew/Elon reports<br />Horizon Report<br />Prediction markets<br />Also:<br /><ul><li>Future of Everything
  4. 4. Educause Evolving Technologies Committee
  5. 5. sf: VernorVinge
  6. 6. NITLE Network
  7. 7. Environmental scanning</li></li></ul><li>trend extrapolation<br />one key form of futurism<br />default assumption is quantitative arc<br />allow us to look for qual possibilities<br />Examples<br />OS balance<br /># of courses in CMS<br />Moore's law keeps working<br />Photo: grapheneusing thermochemical nanolithography supplanting silicon<br />
  8. 8. trend extrapolation<br />size of data<br />5 exabytes of data online in 2002<br />281 exabytes in 2009<br />call it 11240 in 2015 <br />broadband increases<br />social media content, diversity increase<br />
  9. 9. trend extrapolation<br />continuing trendlines for ubicomp<br /># of mobile devices<br />internet of things<br /><ul><li>addressable objects (IP printers, etc)</li></ul>AR<br />3d, non-keyboard interfaces growing steadily<br />
  10. 10. trend extrapolation<br />campus-related trends<br />ebooks grow<br />
  11. 11. trend extrapolation<br />campus-related trends<br />cyberinfrastructuregrows: sciences, humanities<br />digitization continues: scanning, imaging<br />CMS platforms<br />…assume all of these for today's scenarios<br />
  12. 12. Scenarios <br />Stories about futures<br /> Event and response<br />Creativity<br />Roles and times<br />Emergent practices and patterns<br />
  13. 13. Scenarios <br />JamaisCascio: thinking is the important good<br />open up multiple outcomes<br />intersections of trends can power new stuff<br />not Black Swans, but flexible enough thinking to better enable us to think through BSes<br />
  14. 14. Caveats<br />Overlap and interconnection<br />Lots of gaps – that’s part of the plan<br />No value judgments<br />No probability assessments<br />
  15. 15. over to<br /><br />or<br /><br />
  16. 16. Credits<br />Pew/ElonImagining the Internet,<br />Future of Everything, NERCOMP/AC,<br />NMC/ELI Horizon Report,<br />NITLE Prediction Markets,<br />Graphene developments,<br />
  17. 17. Exabytes growing, Marisa Mayer,<br />Tanagrammilitary AR,<br />Connexions,<br />Black Swans: Field Museum Library, gnuckxcc0,<br />Great California Shakeout,<br />Uncredited photos: mine<br />
  18. 18. Credits for Prezi<br />XKCD,<br />Democratized curation,<br />ebooks outselling print by 2015,<br />Beloit Mindset list:<br />FacebookQuora:<br />EpisilonAurigaecrowdsourcing,<br />
  19. 19. Jesse Schell, Is Your Life Just One Big RPG?<br />HP CeNSE: Sensor Networks and the Pulse of the Planet,<br />
  20. 20. Twitterati: Joanne Golas, Owen Kelly, Chris Seller, David E. Robinson<br />Other humans: Mike Sellers, NITLE staff, Todd Bryant, Ed Webb, Robert Renaud, Howard Rheingold<br />…and thanks to CLAC for the opportunity. <br />