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CLAC 2010: Five Futures for Higher Education

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My intro to my CLAC 2010 talk.
Note the link from slide 11; that's to Prezi, where the bulk of the presentation is. Go there.

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CLAC 2010: Five Futures for Higher Education

  1. 1. Five Ways of Looking at the Liberal Arts Campus in 2015<br />CLAC Conference 2010<br />Dickinson College<br />
  2. 2. Looking<br />back,<br />looking<br />ahead <br />
  3. 3. Futuresresearch<br />Pew/Elon reports<br />Horizon Report<br />Prediction markets<br />Also:<br /><ul><li>Future of Everything
  4. 4. Educause Evolving Technologies Committee
  5. 5. sf: VernorVinge
  6. 6. NITLE Network
  7. 7. Environmental scanning</li></li></ul><li>trend extrapolation<br />one key form of futurism<br />default assumption is quantitative arc<br />allow us to look for qual possibilities<br />Examples<br />OS balance<br /># of courses in CMS<br />Moore's law keeps working<br />Photo: grapheneusing thermochemical nanolithography supplanting silicon<br />
  8. 8. trend extrapolation<br />size of data<br />5 exabytes of data online in 2002<br />281 exabytes in 2009<br />call it 11240 in 2015 <br />broadband increases<br />social media content, diversity increase<br />
  9. 9. trend extrapolation<br />continuing trendlines for ubicomp<br /># of mobile devices<br />internet of things<br /><ul><li>addressable objects (IP printers, etc)</li></ul>AR<br />3d, non-keyboard interfaces growing steadily<br />
  10. 10. trend extrapolation<br />campus-related trends<br />ebooks grow<br />
  11. 11. trend extrapolation<br />campus-related trends<br />cyberinfrastructuregrows: sciences, humanities<br />digitization continues: scanning, imaging<br />CMS platforms<br />…assume all of these for today's scenarios<br />
  12. 12. Scenarios <br />Stories about futures<br /> Event and response<br />Creativity<br />Roles and times<br />Emergent practices and patterns<br />
  13. 13. Scenarios <br />JamaisCascio: thinking is the important good<br />open up multiple outcomes<br />intersections of trends can power new stuff<br />not Black Swans, but flexible enough thinking to better enable us to think through BSes<br />
  14. 14. Caveats<br />Overlap and interconnection<br />Lots of gaps – that’s part of the plan<br />No value judgments<br />No probability assessments<br />
  15. 15. over to<br />http://prezi.com/egocbx3gha-y/liberal-education-in-2015/<br />or<br />http://tinyurl.com/39zeqyd<br />
  16. 16. Credits<br />Pew/ElonImagining the Internet, http://www.elon.edu/predictions/<br />Future of Everything, NERCOMP/AC, http://www.academiccommons.org/futureofeverything<br />NMC/ELI Horizon Report, http://www.nmc.org/horizon<br />NITLE Prediction Markets, http://markets.nitle.org/<br />Graphene developments, http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/25547/?nlid=3120&a=f<br />
  17. 17. Exabytes growing, Marisa Mayer, http://www.slideshare.net/PARCInc/innovation-at-google-the-physics-of-data<br />Tanagrammilitary AR, http://spill.tanagram.com/2010/05/24/precise-overlay-registration-within-augmented-reality-a-glimpse-into-the-technology/<br />Connexions, http://cnx.org/<br />Black Swans: Field Museum Library, gnuckxcc0, http://www.flickr.com/photos/34409164@N06/3209135920/<br />Great California Shakeout, http://www.shakeout.org/media/index.html<br />Uncredited photos: mine<br />
  18. 18. Credits for Prezi<br />XKCD, http://xkcd.com/750/<br />Democratized curation, http://www.hyperorg.com/blogger/2010/06/06/democratized-curation/<br />ebooks outselling print by 2015, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/sony/7798340/Sony-ebooks-to-overtake-print-within-five-years.html<br />Beloit Mindset list: http://www.beloit.edu/mindset/<br />FacebookQuora: http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20100531/facebook-moving-to-answer-the-quora-question/<br />EpisilonAurigaecrowdsourcing, http://mysite.du.edu/~rstencel/epsaurnews.htm<br />
  19. 19. Jesse Schell, Is Your Life Just One Big RPG? http://e3.g4tv.com/thefeed/blog/post/702668/dice-2010-video-design-outside-the-box.html<br />HP CeNSE: Sensor Networks and the Pulse of the Planet, http://www.slideshare.net/hewlettpackard/hp-cense-sensor-networks-and-the-pulse-of-the-planet<br />
  20. 20. Twitterati: Joanne Golas, Owen Kelly, Chris Seller, David E. Robinson<br />Other humans: Mike Sellers, NITLE staff, Todd Bryant, Ed Webb, Robert Renaud, Howard Rheingold<br />…and thanks to CLAC for the opportunity. <br />

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