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Using agent-based modelling to inform policy – what could possibly go wrong?

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A talk given at ICES 2018.

Scientific modelling can make things worse, as in the case of the North Atlantic Cod Fisheries Collapse. Some of these failures have been attributed to the simplicity of the models used compared to what they are trying to model. MultiAgent-Based Simulation (MABS) pushes the boundaries of what can be simulated, prompting many to assume that it can usefully inform policy, even in the face of complexity. That said, MABS also brings with it new difficulties and potential confusions. This paper surveys some of the pitfalls that can arise when MABS analysts try to do this. Researchers who claim (or imply) that MABS can reliably predict are criticised in particular. However, an alternative is suggested – that of using MABS for a kind of uncertainty analysis – identifying some of the possible ways a policy can go wrong (or indeed go right). A fisheries example is given. This alternative may widen, rather than narrow, the range of evidence and possibilities that are considered, which could enrich the policy-making process. We call this Reflexive Possibilistic Modelling.

Relates to paper at: http://cfpm.org/discussionpapers/215

Published in: Science
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Using agent-based modelling to inform policy – what could possibly go wrong?

  1. 1. The spectre of complexity and the value of pluralism – A case for Reflexive Possibilistic Modelling Bruce Edmonds and Lia ní Aodha Centre for Policy Modelling Manchester Metropolitan University http://cfpm.org ICES ASC 2018, Hamburg. 25-29 September. SAF21 is a project financed under the EU Horizon 2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie (MSC) – ITN - ETN programme (project 642080).
  2. 2. “it makes quite a difference whether the world is viewed as a machine or as a turbulent stream” (Kwa 1994: 387). “A recurrent theme of Western philosophy and science, including social science, has been the attempt to reformulate systems of knowledge in order to bracket uncertainty...” (Scott, 1998: 321).
  3. 3. The ‘Engineering’ approach to policy The basic strategy is: 1. Decide how to measure attainment of goals 2. List possible approaches/strategies/policies 3. Evaluate these by predicting their measured benefit - costs 4. Choose the best one (Sometimes this is embedded within a cycle of: (a) choose a policy using the above or otherwise, (b) try it out (c) wait (d) measure/assess the outcomes. Though not many successive iterative cycles of this are completed, because something else (politics, new science, ecological change) disrupts this)
  4. 4. But what if we can’t predict outcomes of policies? • i.e. not even approximately in any kind of reliable way • That is not in theory (anyone can predict in theory) but a track record of doing so in many independent cases in practice • Many approaches work if nothing much changes, but miss cases where structural change occurs – where how things work change • Dynamic multispecies interactions occur in complex and chaotic ways that we do not fully understand • Social, political etc. factors complicate things • Factors we are not even aware of turn out to be crucial
  5. 5. New Paradigms for Old – the shift to ‘complexity science’ ‘Linear’ science • Solvable equations • Equilibrium assumptions • Reductionism • Strong assumptions. • Prediction • Many Failures (for fish, people, communities). ‘Complexity’ science • Complex, uncertain, non-linear • Socio-ecological complex adaptive systems. • Adding in Fishermen’s behavior • Integrative research • New kinds of model, including (Agent-based) simulation An epistemological advance – more data, more complex models
  6. 6. Problems with this narrative • Still assumes prediction is possible (for example, via increasingly complex models such as ABM). • Assumes a single model is desirable – a bias towards general models, frameworks and solutions • Fails to recognise incommensurabilities between different communities (e.g. between scientists and some local groups) • Not enough good data, not varied enough in type and level • The variety of values are missed out in the engineering approach • Emphasis on narrow range of evidence and approach
  7. 7. Are we taking the complexity seriously? “A simple system can be adequately described using a single perspective and a standard analytical model, such as Newtonian mechanics, but a complex adaptive system cannot. Rather, complex systems can be characterized by scale effects, nonlinearities and tipping points, inherent uncertainty or unpredictability, self-organization, connectivity, path- dependence, and emergent properties such as resilience that cannot be predicted from examining the parts of the system” (Berkes 2017: 1–2).
  8. 8. Responsive and open policy formation • Don’t pretend to predict, even probabilistically • Rather try to understand lots of possible ways a system could go and how from as many sources as possible • Put in place monitors for early indication that these might be occurring, gather evidence widely • Which allows policies to be considered and changed – open to completely new possibilities • A move from closed+predictive to open+responsive
  9. 9. An example – how modelling might add to the possibilities being considered • Make models that capture some of the complexity, chaos and sheer “mess” of what is happening • See what possibilities these indicate and then go and understand these and their consequences • But remember many other sources of possibilities exist – crucially stakeholder/societal/political input
  10. 10. One way to make a complex model – evolve it! Herbivores Appear First Successful Plant Simulation “Frozen” Carnivores Appear Evolve a complex ecology and save this state
  11. 11. Then explore the possibilities from there… Herbivores Appear First Successful Plant Simulation “Frozen” Carnivores Appear Do multiple runs of the simulation starting from there for each condition to test After, collect statistics or visualisations about what happened in the runs to understand the possible paths
  12. 12. What it looks like…. • A wrapped 2D grid of well- mixed patches with: • energy (transient) • bit string of characteristics • Organisms represented individually with its own characteristics, including: • bit string of characteristics • energy • position • stats recorders A well-mixed patch Each individual represented separately Slow random rate of migration between patches
  13. 13. Total Extinction Probability & Average Total Harvest (last 100 ticks) for different catch levels Catch level (per tick) ProportionofMaximum
  14. 14. Zooming in on what can go wrong – 20 runs of this model from the same starting ecology (catch level 35) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 0 31 62 93 124 155 186 217 248 279 310 341 372 403 434 465 496 527 558 589 620 651 682 713 744 775 806 837 868 899 930 961 992 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 Catch target=30 Simulation Time Totalnumberoffish Each line is from a different run of the model
  15. 15. Conclusion • There are multiple sources of uncertainty (unkown unkowns) • Any one model (formal or mental) will only capture a small aspect of it • An ability to predict not been shown, nor seems feasible in the near future • Rather than close down and focus on a narrow range of (theoretically) measurable quantities, we need to take in a broad range of evidence, viewpoints and policies (including novel ones) • Developing new approaches (including modelling approaches) that broaden the possibilities considered, but skeptically – they may well be wrong! • But this needs to be open to new ideas, approaches and evidence • Accept in the discourse incommensurable viewpoints and decide these via politics rather than pretending it is science
  16. 16. Thanks! Centre for Policy Modelling: http://cfpm.org These slides available at: http://slideshare.net/BruceEdmonds Accompanying paper is at: http://cfpm.org/discussionpapers/215 Basic model is freely available at: http://comses.net/codebases/4204

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