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Geopolitics of India's Energy Security

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  1. 1. Geopolitics of India’s Energy Security <ul><li>T.S. Gopi Rethinaraj </li></ul><ul><li>Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy </li></ul><ul><li>NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE </li></ul><ul><li>October 6, 2008 </li></ul>
  2. 2. Outline of presentation <ul><li>Overview of India’s energy mix and situation </li></ul><ul><li>Fossil fuels: reserves, resources, and utilization </li></ul><ul><li>Non-fossils: hydropower, nuclear, and others </li></ul><ul><li>India’s three-stage nuclear power program </li></ul><ul><li>US-India Nuclear Deal, Technology sanctions & nuclear rapprochement </li></ul><ul><li>Implications for NPT and natural gas pipelines </li></ul><ul><li>Regional energy security & China factor in India </li></ul>
  3. 3. India: Overview Population 1.1 billion Size 3.3 million square kms (one-third of USA) GDP 3.319 trillion $ (PPP) Per Capita GDP 3100 $ (PPP) / head Electricity Production 547.2 billion Kwh (2004) Per Capita Electricity 507 KWh/person /year Total Exports $ 70.0 billion Total Imports $ 89.3 billion FE Reserves $ 126 billion
  4. 4. India: Energy Overview Proven Oil Reserves 5.4 billion barrels Natural gas Reserves 30.1 Tcf Coal Reserves 93.0 billion short tons Oil P=0.82 mbbl/d; I=1.4 mbbl/d; C=2.2 mbbl/d Gas P=883 Bcf/yr; C=883 Bcf/yr Coal P=393 Mmst/yr; I=28 Mmst/yr; C=421 Mmst/yr Uranium Reserves 30,000-70,000 metric tons (low grade) Thorium Reserves >360,000 metric tons Total electricity capacity 120 GW Electricity capacity (source) 90 GW thermal, 26 GW hydro, 3 GW nuclear
  5. 5. Energy demand projections <ul><li>By 2012 consumption of energy will reach 550 Mmtoe from 375 Mmtoe in 2004. (Mmtoe=million metric tons of oil equivalent) </li></ul><ul><li>Must add about 90 GW electricity capacity by 2012. Investment worth US $170 billion needed. </li></ul><ul><li>Coal and natural gas needed to generate electricity will double. </li></ul><ul><li>Coal abundant in India but problematic. Ash content and rising imports. Lack of gas pipelines and other infrastructure will keep electricity in short supply for years. </li></ul><ul><li>Hydroelectric power projects limited by terrain and the difficulties in politically and socially acceptable resettlement. Renewable energy prospects modest. </li></ul><ul><li>India's nuclear-power program prospects uncertain and subject to developments in international nuclear regime. NSG waiver alone cannot guarantee rapid expansion in nuclear capacity. </li></ul>
  6. 6. Coal in India <ul><li>High ash content of Indian coal a major source of local air pollution. Can ignore global warming for time being! </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure difficulties in handling larger volumes of coal imports. Ports and railroads need to be upgraded. </li></ul><ul><li>Imported coal likely to be expensive and raise power bills by over 25%. Heavy industries will feel the pinch. </li></ul>
  7. 7. Natural gas options for India <ul><li>Domestic resources and production will suppress its potential. </li></ul><ul><li>Natural gas is preferred fuel from environmental point of view. Use in domestic applications, mass transit, and direct industrial uses. </li></ul><ul><li>Base load power generation using natural gas require large volumes of imports. </li></ul><ul><li>Iran, Central Asia, and Myanmar gas fields and political barriers in land-based pipelines. LNG terminals in India and prospects. </li></ul>
  8. 8. Potential natural gas routes <ul><li>Source: Tongia and Arunachalam (1998) </li></ul>
  9. 9. Oil investments and prospects <ul><li>6-8 years worth of national oil reserves. In future, India will have to depend mostly on imported oil. </li></ul><ul><li>Fuel substitution and need to shift from oil to LNG, gas or electricity wherever possible. </li></ul><ul><li>Transportation is major user of liquid fossil fuels and needs substantial re-structuring. </li></ul><ul><li>Sharp increases in oil prices and disruptive international events can affect energy security. </li></ul><ul><li>Political instabilities in Persian Gulf region and need to diversify imports. Central Asia? </li></ul><ul><li>Sudan, Nigeria, Syria, Russia, and Vietnam: Some are the target of West for human rights violation and misuse of oil revenues. </li></ul>
  10. 10. India’s nuclear program <ul><li>Homi Bhabha and India’s three-stage nuclear program. </li></ul><ul><li>Aimed at thorium utilization and to avoid the expensive and technically difficult uranium enrichment path. </li></ul><ul><li>Canada’s contribution to India; USA, Britain, France. NPT, India’s 1974 tests & international isolation. </li></ul><ul><li>Slow growth of nuclear program, indigenous development of power program and nuclear fuel cycle; uranium shortage and difficulties. </li></ul>
  11. 11. Indo-US nuclear rapprochement <ul><li>July 18, 2005 Agreement: </li></ul><ul><li>Completion of the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) initiative, launched in January 2004. </li></ul><ul><li>Expansion of bilateral trade and commerce in space, civil nuclear energy and dual-use technology. </li></ul>
  12. 12. Strings attached to the deal <ul><li>The US agrees to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Adjust U.S. laws and policies and international regimes to enable full civil nuclear energy cooperation and trade with India, including but not limited to expeditious consideration of fuel supplies for safeguarded reactors at Tarapur. Inclusion in ITER and Generation IV International Forum. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>India agrees to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify and separate separating civilian and military nuclear facilities in a phased manner and filing a declaration regarding its civilians facilities with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); signing and adhering to an Additional Protocol with respect to civilian nuclear facilities; continuing India’s unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing; working with the United States for the conclusion of a multilateral Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty; refraining from transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technologies to states that do not have them and supporting international efforts to limit their spread; and ensuring that the necessary steps have been taken to secure nuclear materials and technology through comprehensive export control legislation and through harmonization and adherence to Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) guidelines. </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. Implications for NPT and energy security <ul><li>American motivation: Adjusting to new realities and recognition of India’s “impeccable” record in non-proliferation. </li></ul><ul><li>India’s motivation: ending nuclear isolation and access to NSG; confluence of strategic interests and diluting Pakistan’s leverage. </li></ul><ul><li>Political costs: Short term difficulties with Iran and uncertainty over gas pipeline. China’s view of emerging India-US relationship. </li></ul><ul><li>Future: China and India likely to be competitors in accessing new energy sources; but prospects of military rivalry between them unlikely! </li></ul>