Why Over-the-Top is the Future of Communications

1. Over the Top Brough Turner

2. Why Over the Top is the Future of Communica7on Brough Turner Founder, netBlazr.com

3. •  "Internet protocol networks are like Pac Man. Eventually they will eat everything.” –  Hossein Eslambolchi, AT&Ts CTO, 2003 •  "Anyone who relies on the fact that they own a scarce distribu7on resource is going to face ten years of turmoil.” –  Paul Sagan, chief execuHve of Akamai, 2007 •  "If a customer likes it, it doesnt maIer what it does to your economics – its going to happen.” –  Jack Cassidy, CEO of CincinnaH Bell, 2008

4. PredicHons vs. Outcomes •  1-‐3 year predicHons usually over enthusiasHc –  Takes longer or never happens … •  Actual outcomes more sweeping than expected –  But decades perspecHve

5. PredicHons vs. Outcomes •  1-‐3 year predicHons usually over enthusiasHc –  Takes longer or never happens … •  Actual outcomes more sweeping than expected –  But decades perspecHve Hype

6. PredicHons vs. Outcomes •  1-‐3 year predicHons usually over enthusiasHc –  Takes longer or never happens … •  Actual outcomes more sweeping than expected –  But decades perspecHve AdopHon

7. NegaHve Returns (2000-‐2009) hWp://seekingalpha.com/arHcle/243441-‐broadband-‐networks-‐returns-‐on-‐invested-‐capital-‐sHnk

8. NegaHve Returns (2000-‐2009) hWp://seekingalpha.com/arHcle/243441-‐broadband-‐networks-‐returns-‐on-‐invested-‐capital-‐sHnk

9. Ne[lix Performance on Top US Networks

10. Data Rates •  TwiWer: Negligible •  Facebook: Tiny (except video) •  Skype audio: 6-‐40 Kbps * •  Ne[lix SD Video: 500, 1000 & 1500 Kbps ** •  Ne[lix HD Video: 2600 & 3800 Kbps ** * SILK wideband audio coder ** VC1 Advanced Proﬁle video coder

11. Latency Not Important

12. Latency is Important ConversaHon, even with a voice mail system, requires low latency hWp://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/fadderuri/2715777726/

13. Mouth-‐to-‐Ear delay

14. Voice QoS 1.  Dedicated wires = 20th century approach –  Cable & FiOS use separate logical path today 2.  Simple prioriHes –  Mobile telephony (2G-‐ & 3G-‐speciﬁc approaches) –  Enterprise IP-‐PBXs (via DiﬀServ or 802.1p) 3.  Extra bandwidth, i.e. “headroom” –  Vonage, etc. –  Skype

15. Mobile download bandwidth Akamai State of the Internet Report 3Q 2010

16. Voice on 4G •  LTE is all-‐IP: Voice services a work-‐in-‐progress 1.  Fallback to 3G voice 2.  Leverage IMS / “One voice” / VoLTE (not VoLGA) •  4-‐6 years for widespread 4G voice services based on carrier-‐provided QoS

17. Over-‐the-‐Top •  Video  Social –  Happening now – Game over –  Happening fast ! •  Voice –  Happening now –  TransiHoning market-‐by-‐market, as bandwidth headroom becomes available. –  Over-‐the-‐top voice on 4G is a certainty

18. Over the Top is the Future of Communica7on Thank you Brough Turner brough@netBlazr.com