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Why Over-the-Top is the Future of Communications

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Presentation at 4G Wireless Evolution Conference Feb 2011.

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Why Over-the-Top is the Future of Communications

  1. 1. Over  the  Top   Brough  Turner  
  2. 2. Why  Over  the  Top  is    the  Future  of  Communica7on     Brough  Turner   Founder,  netBlazr.com  
  3. 3. •  "Internet  protocol  networks  are  like  Pac  Man.   Eventually  they  will  eat  everything.”   –  Hossein  Eslambolchi,  AT&Ts  CTO,  2003  •  "Anyone  who  relies  on  the  fact  that  they  own  a   scarce  distribu7on  resource  is  going  to  face  ten   years  of  turmoil.”   –  Paul  Sagan,  chief  execuHve  of  Akamai,  2007  •  "If  a  customer  likes  it,  it  doesnt  maIer  what  it   does  to  your  economics  –  its  going  to  happen.”   –  Jack  Cassidy,  CEO  of  CincinnaH  Bell,  2008  
  4. 4. PredicHons  vs.  Outcomes  •  1-­‐3  year  predicHons  usually  over  enthusiasHc   –  Takes  longer  or  never  happens  …  •  Actual  outcomes  more  sweeping  than  expected   –  But  decades  perspecHve  
  5. 5. PredicHons  vs.  Outcomes  •  1-­‐3  year  predicHons  usually  over  enthusiasHc   –  Takes  longer  or  never  happens  …  •  Actual  outcomes  more  sweeping  than  expected   –  But  decades  perspecHve   Hype  
  6. 6. PredicHons  vs.  Outcomes  •  1-­‐3  year  predicHons  usually  over  enthusiasHc   –  Takes  longer  or  never  happens  …  •  Actual  outcomes  more  sweeping  than  expected   –  But  decades  perspecHve   AdopHon  
  7. 7.        NegaHve  Returns  (2000-­‐2009)   hWp://seekingalpha.com/arHcle/243441-­‐broadband-­‐networks-­‐returns-­‐on-­‐invested-­‐capital-­‐sHnk  
  8. 8.        NegaHve  Returns  (2000-­‐2009)   hWp://seekingalpha.com/arHcle/243441-­‐broadband-­‐networks-­‐returns-­‐on-­‐invested-­‐capital-­‐sHnk  
  9. 9. Ne[lix  Performance  on  Top  US  Networks  
  10. 10. Data  Rates  •  TwiWer:      Negligible  •  Facebook:      Tiny          (except  video)  •  Skype  audio:    6-­‐40  Kbps  *  •  Ne[lix  SD  Video:    500,  1000  &  1500  Kbps  **  •  Ne[lix  HD  Video:    2600  &  3800  Kbps  **   *          SILK  wideband  audio  coder   **      VC1  Advanced  Profile  video  coder  
  11. 11. Latency  Not  Important  
  12. 12. Latency  is  Important   ConversaHon,    even  with  a      voice  mail  system,   requires   low  latency  hWp://www.flickr.com/photos/fadderuri/2715777726/  
  13. 13. Mouth-­‐to-­‐Ear  delay  
  14. 14. Voice  QoS  1.  Dedicated  wires  =  20th  century  approach   –  Cable  &  FiOS  use  separate  logical  path  today  2.  Simple  prioriHes   –  Mobile  telephony  (2G-­‐  &  3G-­‐specific  approaches)   –  Enterprise  IP-­‐PBXs  (via  DiffServ  or  802.1p)  3.  Extra  bandwidth,  i.e.  “headroom”   –  Vonage,  etc.   –  Skype  
  15. 15. Mobile  download  bandwidth   Akamai  State  of  the  Internet  Report  3Q  2010  
  16. 16. Voice  on  4G  •  LTE  is  all-­‐IP:    Voice  services  a  work-­‐in-­‐progress   1.  Fallback  to  3G  voice   2.  Leverage  IMS  /  “One  voice”  /  VoLTE  (not  VoLGA)  •  4-­‐6  years  for  widespread  4G  voice  services   based  on  carrier-­‐provided  QoS  
  17. 17. Over-­‐the-­‐Top  •  Video                                                                        Social   –  Happening  now                                                    –  Game  over   –  Happening  fast  !  •  Voice   –  Happening  now   –  TransiHoning  market-­‐by-­‐market,  as  bandwidth   headroom  becomes  available.   –  Over-­‐the-­‐top  voice  on  4G  is  a  certainty  
  18. 18. Over  the  Top  is    the  Future  of  Communica7on     Thank  you     Brough  Turner   brough@netBlazr.com  

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