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Total learning keynote: The future of learning and work

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Total learning keynote: The future of learning and work by David Smith - Chief Executive, Global Futures and Foresight.

What does the future workplace look like? What will your people want? Who are they? How will they behave at work and at home? What are their behaviours? Do you know how to engage and retain them?

David shares his knowledge on the technological drivers of change and the emerging trends and conditions that will change learning in the future.

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Total learning keynote: The future of learning and work

  1. 1. 26/11/2014 1 The future of learning and work Global Futures & Foresight David Smith Global Futures and Foresight Copyright © 2014 Global Futures and Foresight Limited http://notes.andrewromano.net/post/93865094/fortune-magazine-cover-images-1951-1955-it-was Global Futures & Foresight The rate of failure • Only 71 companies remain today from the original 1955 Fortune 500 list. "the assumptions on which the organization has been built and is being run no longer fit reality."Peter Drucker http://www.briansol is.com/2013/02/no-business-is-too-big-to-fail-or-too-small-to-succeed-sobering-stats-on-business-failures/ http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2008-07-31/what-drucker-would-say-about-mervynsbusinessweek-business-news-stock-market-and-financial-advice Global Futures & Foresight Data Processing "I have travelled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year." The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957. Global Futures & Foresight ... and the telephone “The 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” Western Union internal memo, 1876. Over 1.5 billion telephone lines Over 7 billion mobiles Global Futures & Foresight Innovation 48 Years 1810 1858 Ezra Warner of Waterbury, Connecticut patented the first can opener Global Futures & Foresight Mega trends 1. Globalization 2. Technology 3. Environment 4. Changes in work 5. Demographics & people 6. Consumption http://csr-news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends-and-the-future-of-corporate-social-responsibility/
  2. 2. 26/11/2014 2 DEMOGRAPHICS Global Futures & Foresight Global Futures & Foresight Getting older • 10m people over 65 years. – One in 6 people. – By 2030 5½m more +65’s. – By 2050 one in four. • By 2020 – 3m more over 70. – 36% of workers over 50. • 2017 1/2m fewer teenagers and young adults. http://cdni.wired.co.uk/620x413/o_r/oldpeople.jpg http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/key-issues-for-the-new-parliament/value-for-money-in-public-services/the-ageing-population/ http://www.hrreview.co.uk/hr-news/diversity-equality/cipd-urges-employers-to-embrace-ageing-workforce/40366 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9612708/One-in-four-will-retire-at-70-by-2028.html http://www.hrmagazine.co.uk/hro/news/1075369/more-workers-continue-employment-past-age-65 And we’re living longer lives 1.Bbn people over 60 by 2050 Global Futures Global Futures Income per person v life expectancy & Foresight & Foresight “Human life expectancies have the potential to reach 500, or possibly even 1000.” “In the near future, the next two to four decades, the disease of ageing will be cured.” Dr. Aubrey de Grey B.A., M.A. and Ph.D., University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. Born 20th April 1963 Robert A. Freitas Jr. is Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Molecular Manufacturing Global Futures & Foresight What’s shaping the world of work 1. Globalisation and the migration to cities. 2. Technology, digitalisation of knowledge & connection. 3. Demographic change. 4. Low carbon economy. 5. Social change. Global Futures & Foresight
  3. 3. 26/11/2014 3 Reorientated business models http://www.theharteofmarketing.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/customer-centric-outside-in-reorg-harte.jpg Global Futures & Foresight • Shift from ‘inside-out’ perspective to ‘outside-in.’ • A shift to a world of: – Web-based. – Decentralised. – Front-office-oriented. – Mobile. – Touch-screen. – Consumer-oriented. – Co-creation. • Informed by data analytics. http://www.insurancetech.com/management-strategies/insurance-companies-embrace-emerging-tec/232200668 Work and workers are changing Gen Y makes up 75% of the world’s workforce by 2025 Global Futures & Foresight • Crowdsourcing • Output vs hours • Devices • Generations • Values vs rules • Employee led innovation BPW Foundation Source: Dell The evolving workforce: http://i.dell.com/sites/doccontent/shared-content/campaigns/en/Documents/Dell-Evolving-Workforce-Report-1-APP.pdf Global Futures & Foresight Portfolio working • 83% of millennials say freelancing is a part of their career strategy. • 79% of HR execs believe employees are expected to have multiple simultaneous careers by 2018. • By 2020, 40% of US workforce to be contract based. http://www.webgrrls.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Women-in-Hats-juggling-hats.jpeg http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16968125 http://gigaom.com/collaboration/study-58-of-uk-workers-expect-the-office-to-be-extinct-by-2021/ http://www.hrreview.co.uk/hr-news/strategy-news/the-flux-report-how-your-workforce-will-look-in-2018/50184 Global Futures & Foresight SME growth • Large org’s unable to absorb the extra 5 million workers forecast in the UK by 2020. • Britain’s population of SMEs to reach six million by 2020 – 1m more than today. http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3033/2546827948_5c582dae36_o.jpg Taken from IoD whitepaper prepared by GFF Gen Y is here - so are the boomers Global Futures & Foresight • 33% to continue in work past 65. • Greatest satisfaction provided by paid work for the over 65’s. • 25% working until 70 by 2028. • Entrepreneurship shifted to 55–64’s. • Over 50’s start-up survival rate 70%. – Under 50’s 28%. Silverpreneurs http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9612708/One-in-four-will-retire-at-70-by- 2028.html http://www.hrmagazine.co.uk/hro/news/1075369/more-workers-continue-employment-past-age-65 80% of executives worldwide say enterprise-wide Global Futures & Foresight Unlocking knowledge • Organizations outnumbered by the resources provided by their network. • Business value from the social world. • Significant trends such as: – Crowdsourcing. – Open and social supply chains. – Open innovation. – Social media marketing. – Social CRM. collaboration is the key to success. Global Survey Enterprise Collaboration http://www.dachisgroup.com/2010/08/six-social-business-trends-to-watch/
  4. 4. 26/11/2014 4 Global Futures & Foresight Talent clouds • Work will increasingly be organised by talent clouds: – Networks of skilled professionals and para-professionals. – coordinate work activities and match specialized skills with tasks. oDesk and eLance. http://www.edutopia.org/blog/5-shifts-regenerating-learning-ecosystem-andrea-saveri http://cdn2.hubspot.net/hub/213056/file-31917197-jpg/images/dispersed-workforce.jpg?t=1414364740602 Global Futures & Foresight Knowledge workers 3.0 ‘The next leap forward in the productivity of knowledge workers will come from interactive technologies combined with complementary investments in process innovations and training.’ McKinsey Source: https://help.yammer.com/entries/21744857-microsoft-acquires-yammer Source: https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/High_Tech/Strategy_Analysis/Clouds_big_data_and_smart_assets_Ten_tech-enabled_ business_trends_to_watch_2647 http://www.smal biztechnology.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/yammer.jpg Strategic choices, such as whether to extend collaboration networks to customers and suppliers, will be important Future knowledge workers http://kmonadol araday.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/childpowerpoint.jpg?w=700 Cognitive computing will play a big role in how knowledge workers access info via their personal digital assistants. Global Futures & Foresight • By 2025, productivity gains in fields of ‘knowledge work.’ could account for 40% of all the current jobs in those areas: McKinsey Source: Financial Times, 2014 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/dc895d54-a2bf-11e3-9685-00144feab7de.html#axzz2uvsmQnEM Global Futures & Foresight Knowledge workers become tech workers • 86% of decision makers say all employees will need to be ‘data geeks.’ • 4/5 of UK data intensive businesses struggling to meet demand. http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/images/issues/cyberspace1.jpg http://www.news-sap.com/sap-sponsored-survey-finds-business-decision-makers-struggle-unlock-power-big-data/ http://blog.pivotal.io/pivotal/news-2/mckinsey-report-highlights-the-impending-data-scientist-shortage http://www.statslife.org.uk/news/1640-uk-businesses-warn-a-data-skills-shortage-could-block-potential-of-big-data 50% of firms will demand you BYOD by 2017. http://bit.ly/1d81FHq Global Futures Global Futures & Foresight Mobile infrastructure • The global mobile workforce could reach 1.3 billion by 2015. • 37% of all adults. – Spend on online workers: – $1bn in 2012. – $5bn by 2018. http://www.solstice-mobile.com/images/services/services-mobile-infrastructure.png http://www.computerworlduk.com/news/mobile-wireless/3424886/mobile-workforce-hit-13-billion-by-2015-report/ http://newsroom.cisco.com/feature-content?type=webcontent&articleId=1152110 http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterhigh/2013/10/14/gartner-top-10-strategic-technology-trends-for-2014/ & Foresight Consumerisation of IT • Consumerisation of IT is the most significant IT trend to 2020. Gartner 2010 • Employees seek personal solutions. – 30% of IT spend outside IT budget. PwC. – 90% within 10 years. Gartner. • 32% of European businesses do not permit staff to BYO device to work. Source: TechCrunch, March 2012 http://techcrunch.com/2012/03/10/3-predictions-future-of-enterprise-software/ Source: Network World, August 2012 http://www.networkworld.com/news/2012/080812-shadow-it-261502.html http://siliconangle.com/files/2012/01/consumerization-of-IT-3.jpg Source Microsoft: http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CEEQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fdownload.microsoft.com%2Fdownload%2FD%2F2%2FA%2FD 2A25157-D8DE-470C-BED0-8254EB82B4BB%2F2032-The-Consumerization-of-IT-Within-Microsoft- QRG.docx&ei=4LU4UJrdPOPS0QXy9YGgBQ&usg=AFQjCNHoHD0f4OLT0F9LLDWmfqRIkRNd4w&sig2=_piUz_IxC9ocUkChOlHX5w http://www.net-security.org/secworld.php?id=13621 Gartner
  5. 5. 26/11/2014 5 WORK AUTOMATION Knowledge Work Automation Global Futures & Foresight Global Futures & Foresight Automation Manual Clerical Managerial Professional • Routine and laborious tasks automated. – 40% non-routine work by 2020. – Billions of cognitive assistants collecting information, monitoring behaviour, acting from their preferences. • Many knowledge work jobs can be done anywhere by anybody. http://www.procalme.com/service%20images/automation.jpg Source: SME Advisor, December 2010 http://www.smeadvisor.com/2010/12/crystal-gaze/ Global Futures & Foresight Automation • Technology to automate a third of UK jobs over next 20 years. Deloitte • 60% of CEOs believe smart machines to be a ‘futurist fantasy.’ http://www.audiotech.com/trends-magazine/wp-content/themes/Trends/timthumb.php?src=http://www.audiotech.com/trends-magazine/ http://techcrunch.com/2014/11/11/automation-uk-jobs/ http://www.cbronline.com/news/tech/cio-agenda/the-boardroom/gartner-predicts-smart-machines-will-have- deep-business-impact-by-2020 images/articles/2012/04/02.png&h=300&w=565&zc=1&q=90 Automation of knowledge work Global Futures & Foresight • By 2025 could affect: – 15m science, engineering and IT jobs. – 15-20m management jobs. • $5–7 trillion potential economic impact by 2025. http://bit.ly/136XCbE http://bit.ly/188j8BB http://rembrandtgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/iStock_000018694643_Smal .jpg By 2020 67% expect a growing proportion of roles to be automated Source: http://www.managementthinking.eiu.com/sites/default/files/downloads/EIU_Agent%20of%20change_WEB_FINAL.pdf Global Futures & Foresight Virtual company • Only 14% of UK workers want to work in a traditional office environment in the future. • 1 in 3 people in 2020 could work remotely - the majority from home. http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3586/3509352904_cc35c33091_z.jpg?zz=1 http://www.techvibes.com/blog/offices-are-getting-smaller-and-thats-a-good-thing-2012-09-27 http://www.fastcoexist.com/1680623/the-future-of-working-from-home?partner=newsletter http://pwc.blogs.com/press_room/2014/07/the-end-of-the-office-pwc-future-of-work-report.html & Foresight TECHNOLOGY Global Futures
  6. 6. 26/11/2014 6 Dramatic innovations in the Western world are likely to be those that accelerate economic productivity. McKinsey Global Futures & Foresight Technology trumps all? ‘Technology is ‘...likely to have the most direct (and perhaps instant) impact on how businesses operate and how they are organised.’ Economist Intelligence Unit http://www.21stcenturynews.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/innovation-technology.jpg http://www.economistinsights.com/sites/default/fi les/downloads/EIU_Agent%20of%20change_WEB_FINAL.pdf Infrastructure to collaborate Global Futures & Foresight • By 2020 - 4bn people online creating 50tn gb of data. • Storage to grow 20-40% pa. • 1 in 3 say infrastructure intelligence will impact IT decisions & network operations over next 5 years. ht p:/ cdn2.hubspot .net/hub/162980/ file-313175053-jpg/Virtual_Col aboration.jpg http://www.infocomanalysis.com/booz-company-global-ict-50-study/ http://www.crn.com/slide-shows/networking/240153465/five-technology-trends-it-considers-game-changers.htm?pgno=6 http://www.hpl.hp.com/research/intelligent_infrastructure.html From social tools to social enterprises ‘Social requires business transformation... The more profound aspects include peer production of product development, customer care, and marketing require deeper rethinking of business processes.’ Dion Hinchcliffe http://www.fsg.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Social-Enterprise.png Internal social media and networks will be key comms and knowledge sharing platform within organisations. Global Futures & Foresight http://www.zdnet.com/blog/hinchcliffe/the-big-five-it-trends-of-the-next-half-decade-mobile-social-cloud-consumerization-and-big-data/1811 http://www.forbes.com/sites/ciocentral/2012/12/11/5-ways-social-media-will-change-the-way-you-work-in-2013/ Global Futures & Foresight The post e-mail era Social networks Adds $1.3tn per year – 66% through collaboration • Changed the way we live. • Social and political processes. • Change the way we work. • Global • Work Swarms • New Management processes. • Collaborate around problems. • Faster and more creative solutions. Social Media 20-25% improvement in productivity of knowledge workers. http://www.newmediatrendwatch.com/world-overview/137-social-networking-and-ugc McKinsey Global Institute pdf, July 2012, ‘The Social Economy: Unlocking value and productivity through social technologies.’ ‘For businesses - implications for systems development, insight and analytics, leadership & competitive advantage.’ Global Futures & Foresight Wearables • $19bn revenue by 2018. – $1.4bn in 2013. • 6% of businesses given these to their staff... – The next logical step after mobile. http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57607524-94/wearable-tech-revenue-to-hit-$19b-by-2018/ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23579404 http://www.idgconnect.com/blog-abstract/3419/how-will-wearable-technology-impact-business-world http://s3files.core77.com/blog/images/2013/04/where-wearable-tech.jpg Global Futures & Foresight Smart fabrics
  7. 7. 26/11/2014 7 The mobile worker in context Global Futures & Foresight • Where am I? • What am I doing? • Who’s around me? • Where am I going? • What would help me? –Where –What –Who The end of work as we know it? Global Futures & Foresight • 2 bn jobs go by 2030. Thomas Frey • In a computer dominated economy we will see 75% unemployment by 2100. Software entrepreneur Martin Ford http://xyzuniversity.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/cubes.jpg http://blogs.hbr.org/morning-advantage/2013/01/morning-advantage-a-world-with. html?utm_source=Socialflow&utm_medium=Tweet&utm_campaign=Socialflow http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2012/02/2-billion-jobs-to-disappear-by-2030/ Engaging with technology Global Futures & Foresight • Artificial Intelligence’s – “Weak” AI by 2019. – We will interact with them like humans. (Voice, gesture etc.) • e-technology advanced: – Fewer human interactions – More strategic focus. • Face & voice recognition. • Holographic by 2015 • Haptic by 2020 Source: http://www.supplymanagement.co.uk/EDIT/Featured_articles_item.asp?id=16394 Engaged through technology Global Futures & Foresight By 2019 • 3D virtual reality displays, • Embedded in glasses & contact lenses. • Primary interfaces to connect with other people, computers, the Web and virtual reality. Kurzweil • Linking our senses with other people’s senses or machines. Global Futures & Foresight “When you put on the goggles, it’s different from anything I have ever experienced in my life,” Mark Zuckerberg Brain-to-computer interfaces http://wingwire.com/app/webroot/files/4_525_1403287387.jpg Scientifically viable in 2020; mainstream in 2022; Global Futures & Foresight • Future pilots control their aircraft by merely thinking commands. • Scientists in Munich have now demonstrated the feasibility of flying via brain control - with astonishing accuracy. financially viable in 2027 http://phys.org/news/2014-05-thoughts-airplanes.html?sf26752737=1 http://www.businessinsider.com/emerging-neuro-and-cognitive-technologies-2014-4#ixzz33lgw7ppZ
  8. 8. 26/11/2014 8 http://abcnewsradioonline.com/storage/news-images/Getty_082813_BrainToBrain.jpg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1377708614654 Scientifically viable in 2025; mainstream in 2026; Global Futures & Foresight Brain-to-brain interfaces • Brain interfaces transmit information between people. – Allowing the receiving brain to perform tasks without training. financially viable in 2027 http://www.businessinsider.com/emerging-neuro-and-cognitive-technologies-2014-4#ixzz33lgw7ppZ New co-workers or personal trainers Acroid 1 Shakira 2 Clooney 1 Global Futures & Foresight Global Futures & Foresight Information in a pill Within thirty years ‘...we’re going to be able to literally ingest information.’ Nicholas Negroponte, founder of the MIT Media Lab. ht p:/ s-form.dk/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Knowledge_Pil .jpg Source: Business Insider, 2014 http://www.businessinsider.com/knowledge-pills-2014-3 Global Futures & Foresight The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones. Global Futures & Foresight John Maynard Keynes Creating a learning organisation • Only 40% of CEOs understand that learning is key to developing employees and driving higher performance. ‘An organization’s ability to learn, and translate that learning into action rapidly, is the ultimate competitive advantage’ Global Futures & Foresight Jack Welch, former CEO,GE https://blogs.oracle.com/OracleHCM/entry/creating_a_learning_culture_is http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1_PD7SHFIw0/UwNnjQ0Fr9I/AAAAAAAACxs/mNo_GNDESx0/s1600/neural_net.jpg
  9. 9. 26/11/2014 9 Management neglecting key area Global Futures & Foresight • 75% of org's rate workforce capability as an urgent issue. • Only 15% ready to address it. http://www.leadmd.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/marketing-skil s-gap.png Source: Economist Insights, 2014 http://www.economistinsights.com/leadership-talent-education/analysis/closing-skills-gap http://www.accountingtoday.com/news/deloitte-predicts-challenges-global-workforce-69964-1.html New mediums of knowledge ignored http://spreadeaglepatriot.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/ostrich.jpg Global Futures & Foresight • 99.4% of 1.5tn objects are unconnected. • IoT: $14.4 tn potential bottom-line value. • Only 23% say IoT will change their business model. http://www.thegff.com/Articles/390048/Global_Futures_and/Reports/Whats_Hot_in.aspx Global Futures & Foresight Prescriptive analytics • Prescriptive analytics not only predicts a possible future, it predicts multiple futures based on the decision maker’s actions. http://community.lithium.com/t5/Science-of-Social-blog/Big-Data-Reduction-3-From-Descriptive-to-Prescriptive/ba-p/81556 http://www.o2mc.io/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Prescriptive1.jpg Obtaining a different level of insights (from data) will be one of the truly powerful opportunities of the next few years. Global Futures & Foresight Jobs of tomorrow • 65% of students starting grade school today will end up doing jobs that have not yet been invented. MacArthur Foundation Source: McKinsey, 2013 http://voices.mckinseyonsociety.com/turning-school-upside-down/ http://s3.amazonaws.com/rapgenius/fast-paced.jpg Global Futures & Foresight New jobs • Rapid growth in: – Information communications technology. – Business and financial services. – Care of the elderly and young people. – Hospitality and retailing. – Advanced manufacturing and biotechnology. The UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES) Global Futures & Foresight New Jobs • Body Part Maker • Nano-Medic • Pharmer of Genetically Engineered Crops & Livestock • Old Age Wellness Manager / Consultant Specialists • Memory Augmentation Surgeon • New Science‘ Ethicist
  10. 10. 26/11/2014 10 Global Futures & Foresight New Jobs • Vertical Farmers • Climate Change Reversal Specialist • Quarantine Enforcer • Weather Modification Police Global Futures & Foresight New Jobs • Virtual Lawyer • Avatar Manager • Virtual Teachers • Alternative Vehicle Developers • Narrowcasters • Waste Data Handler • Time Broker / Time Bank Trader • Social 'Networking' Worker First we do things differently Then we do different things Global Futures & Foresight Global Futures & Foresight Imagine it Thank you If you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead +44 7932 408901 david.smith@thegff.com www.thegff.com www.linkedin.com/in/dasmith davidsmithgff gfftv http://elm.neworldiq.com

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