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Bridget mc kenzie museum scenarios 2020


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Bridget mc kenzie museum scenarios 2020

  1. 1. Museum Scenarios 2020BridgetMcKenzie
  2. 2. Three ways to model futures1. Normative: desired future built oncommon ideals2. Extrapolating: probable future builton trends3. Scenarios: possible futures built onboth ideals and trends
  3. 3. • Understand megatrends (or major drivingforces) for your focal issue• Distinguish between trends andmegatrends.• Understand the critical uncertainties foryour issue• Distinguish between gamechangers andBlack SwansDriving Forces and Uncertainties
  4. 4. To simplify it…Gamechangers TrendsBlack Swans MegatrendsDrivingforcesCriticaluncertaintiesScale, complexity and power
  5. 5. Trends affecting museums by 2020For example:• Public resources as open commons• Traditional education challenged byopen and informal learning• Pressure for museums to have evermore social impact• More democratic participation
  6. 6. Event at SantaCruz Museumof Art & History
  7. 7. Megatrends affecting museums• Unemployment in Europe• Austerity measures: cuts to museumsBUT• Growth in cultural tourism• Rapid advances in technology (especially‘hypernature’ – enhancing bioservices)
  8. 8. Gamechangers affecting museumsFor example,• 3D printing• Alternative currency• Wearable tech• Crowds (positivebut also a shadowside)
  9. 9. Black Swans affecting museums…and everyone• Global warming: two orders of magnitudegreater in C21 than in last Ice Age; CO2 now at400pmm• Ecocide: biodiversity losses• Resource insecurity• Social awareness of injustice causing unrest
  10. 10. Scenarios need constant feedingUnitedMicro-kingdoms
  11. 11. Europe in2020?
  12. 12. Europe2020EU’s ‘Smart, Sustainable, Inclusive’ goals totackle the crisis by 2020:• 75% employment• 20% less GHG emissions, 20% more efficient• 40% completing higher education• Lift 20 million out of povertyCan you use any of this to build your scenarios?
  13. 13. Tech in 2020?
  14. 14. Tech visions 2020‘Internet of Things in 2020’ is one of several.IoT2020: megatrends for this focal issue:• Data deluge: exacerbated by IoT• Energy shortage: devices must harvest own• Miniaturisation• Autonomic resources: self managing &healing
  15. 15. Brain controlinterface
  16. 16. Museums2020• Museum Association project• Bold vision for future of UK museums• Help museums think long term• Doesn’t aim to predict future• Questioning the sector & public on role &impact of museums on individuals, society& environment
  17. 17. How can we mapfuture museumscenarios?
  18. 18. People’smuseumGreenmuseumAttractionmuseum UnmuseumDisruptionTraditionMission: diversityand wellbeingMission: wealth creationSocialjusticeEcotopiaGrowthis godTechno-utopia
  19. 19. Without radical disruption…People’sheritagedestroyedthroughconflict.Syria now,what next?
  20. 20. Attraction museum with no visitors?
  21. 21. Green Museum: Biomuseo in Panama
  22. 22. Green Museums 2020?• Using and promoting alternativecurrencies, or gifting• Constituted as community co-operatives• Modelling the ‘circular economy’• Education to develop future skillssuch as bioempathy
  23. 23. Unmuseum: Museum as base or catalyst
  24. 24. Unmuseums 2020?• Unlimited by walls or traditions• Focus on what people will pay for• Partnerships generate profit for creativeindustries?• 3D printing: museums in your home?• FabLab: tap museum knowledge ofmaterials and context?• Neuroscience and immersive memorynarratives: as therapy?
  25. 25. Ideal: The Disruptive Museum?Mix the Greenand theUnmuseum?
  26. 26. A movement of disruptive museums?• Global commons to conserve cultural andnatural diversity, built on heritage• Reflect on things: Promote wellbeing beyondconsumption of things• Act as hubs for sustainable communities:showcase and commission ecosocialinnovation• Contemporary art and creative tech ascatalysts for change
  27. 27. Thinktheunthink-ableTalk to me on