Forecasting the Growth for Online Grocery Shopping: Three Growth Scenarios


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See how characteristics of the online grocery shopping offer are defining the market and learn more about Brick Meets Click's three potential growth scenarios (conservative, moderate, and aggressive) based on market level assumptions.

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Forecasting the Growth for Online Grocery Shopping: Three Growth Scenarios

  1. 1. January 2014 Forecasting the Growth for Online Grocery Shopping January 2014 By Brick Meets Click Brick Meets Click delivers the strategic insight and guidance that retailers, suppliers, & technology providers need to drive growth by meeting shopper needs in an omnichannel environment. @2014 brick meets click
  2. 2. January 2014 What Characteristics of the Online Grocery Shopping Offer are Defining the Market? → Availability: “Market Presence” → Accessibility: “Ease of Use” → Flexibility: “Fulfillment Options” → Affordability: “Competitive Prices” @2014 brick meets click 2
  3. 3. January 2014 Modeling Market Readiness and Growth Potential → Adoption curves reflect actual experience of similar US retail business models. → “Start point” based on survey results from 22,000 customers from seven retail banners across multiple markets in the US. → Growth/diffusion rate driven by positive word of mouth. → Demographics define the “necessary conditions” and high potential segments. → Growth scenarios built around the intensity of competition. @2014 brick meets click 3
  4. 4. January 2014 Market-based Scenarios = the Only Practical Way to Go → Created at the market level vs. national. → Driven by the level of shopper readiness and the availability of online grocery shopping in that market. → Online penetration driven by the speed/scale of an investment. @2014 brick meets click 4
  5. 5. January 2014 Potential GROWTH Scenarios @2014 brick meets click 5
  6. 6. January 2014 CONSERVATIVE Growth: 6.7% penetration in 2024 Market conditions: Only online grocery option in the market is a new player who: → Must invest in a physical capability; i.e. fulfillment center. → Takes a measured approach to deploying across the market. @2014 brick meets click 6
  7. 7. January 2014 MODERATE Growth: 10.7% penetration in 2024 Market conditions: Some disruption as Amazon accelerates rollout to more markets triggering a response by the regional supermarket chains in those areas. → Only the leaders respond. → Response extends to reinventing the store. @2014 brick meets click 7
  8. 8. January 2014 AGGRESSIVE Growth: 16.9% penetration in 2024 Market conditions: Major disruption has occurred as Amazon Fresh dramatically increases its number of market, and national chains, as well as regionals respond. → There are available physical assets ready for conversion for fulfillment. → Deployments are accelerated. @2014 brick meets click 8
  9. 9. Three Forces Reshaping the Retail Landscape Di gi t al l y Connect ed Ret ai l ers’ Need Shoppers t o Grow Li f ecycl e of Ret ai l Format s January 2014 @2014 brick meets click 9
  10. 10. January 2014 10 Br i ck Meet s Cl i ck hel ps gr ocer y r et ai l er s, suppl i er s and t ech pr ovi der s wor k smar t er i n t oday’s omni channel envi r onment . We al so host a commer ci al -f r ee f or um on our si t e about t he f ut ur e of shoppi ng and gr ocer y r et ai l i ng - Gi ve us a vi si t ! bri ckmeet scl i Get r egul ar updat es on: Twi t t er , Li nkedI n, Googl e+ or Facebook