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Futures of Emergency
Preparedness
Using the Futures Wheel
Jim Breaux: jwbreaux@uh.edu
281-615-7558
@bagelx
The Project
• In the UofH futures master program one of the courses
is Futures Research
• We use various methods in explor...
Futures Wheel 1
• Coastal Population Trends Upward; based on
NOAA reporting increasing coastal populations
in vulnerable c...
Futures Wheel -1
Future of Emergency Preparedness
Coastal
Population
Trends
Upward at
the Coasts
More
Housing
needed
Housi...
Implications
Wheel 1 Coastal Population Trends Upward at the Coasts
Take-aways
• The possible simultaneous rise of stronge...
Futures Wheel 2
• Wheel 2 - Plan to Improve Storm Prediction
Reliability; New math and models applied to
Storm prediction ...
Futures Wheel - 2
Future of Emergency Preparedness
Plan to
Improve
Storm
Prediction
Reliability
Evacuation
Indecision
Incr...
Implications
Wheel 2 Plan to Improve Storm Prediction Reliability
Take-aways
• Meteorological Science leading to a new dis...
Key take-aways
• Great method; took me places I might not
have been going
• Emergency Management Heroes; Judge Ed
Emmett: ...
Questions??
References
• NOAA, (Sep, 2013) National Coastal Population Report,
1970 – 2020. Retrieved from NOAA website
http://stateof...
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Using the Futures wheels for Emergency Preparedness

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These are the slides from my recent co-presentation at the WFS2014 Conference. I'm posting a YouTube of the talk that goes along with the slides http://youtu.be/g-3u0BMAYmI The idea here is to use a futures wheel similar to Jerome Glen's to generate novel alternative possibilities derivative from the initial trend [revealed from scanning the Litany and deeper layers {CLA reference}]. These posibilities and ideas can then be woven into scenarios, or discarded as brainstorming fancies.

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Using the Futures wheels for Emergency Preparedness

  1. 1. Futures of Emergency Preparedness Using the Futures Wheel Jim Breaux: jwbreaux@uh.edu 281-615-7558 @bagelx
  2. 2. The Project • In the UofH futures master program one of the courses is Futures Research • We use various methods in exploring a particular domain for a semester – my domain is the future of emergency preparedness • One method is the Futures Wheel (Jerome Glenn, 1971); The futures wheel can assist in organizing concepts about possible futures developments and offering futures-conscious perspectives. • For the research project I explored 2 trends that I observed during my research of the domain and pushed them through three derivative bifurcations
  3. 3. Futures Wheel 1 • Coastal Population Trends Upward; based on NOAA reporting increasing coastal populations in vulnerable coastal and low-lying areas.
  4. 4. Futures Wheel -1 Future of Emergency Preparedness Coastal Population Trends Upward at the Coasts More Housing needed Housing Placement Restrictions Change traditional Architecture More High Rise Concrete and Steel Structures invade Coastal Habitats Mobile Housing Rises in Popularity New Technologies in High Speed Evacuation Emerge New Laws to deal with Evacuation Issues Enacted Evacuation Difficulty Increases Political Clout Grows Housing Costs Increase due to New Codes Imbalance in the Congress Relieves Impasse of the early 2000’s Non-Geographic Coastal Affiliation Party Founded Advanced Shelter and Evacuation Logistics Imposed Private Evacuation Businesses Formed OMB Forms Special Unit to Audit and Prosecute Evacuation Fraud Political Manipulation and Party Weakening Efforts cause Parliamentary system revision to POTUS Continuation of Political Gridlock as Coastal vs. Interior special interests fight New Mega- Projects Are Funded to Protect Coasts Housing Inflation Causes Wage Inflation and Businesses are less profitable Novel Cost Models for Housing Emerge Elite vs. Masses Divide Sparks Violence During a Major Evacuation Political System Begins to Work as Intended by the Founding Fathers J. Breaux, 10/2013
  5. 5. Implications Wheel 1 Coastal Population Trends Upward at the Coasts Take-aways • The possible simultaneous rise of stronger AND more mobile housing • Increasing Coastal population may increase political clout to get big projects financed. • Private Evacuation businesses forming to meet demand. Groups could be better off this change were to occur: • Private Evacuation Companies for a new industry • Coastal businesses would get the labor force they need to progress • Coastal politics would rise in importance • Home Manufacturers and builders would have more work • Could be a building boom to improve shelters. Groups could be worse off if this change were to occur: • Coastal populations at higher levels would contain more (quantity) vulnerable people • Existing labor force at coast could see wage stagnation, as new jobs are not in their same categories. • Coastal politics could be corrupt leading to unfair access by the elites against the less fortunate. • Housing costs may increase for the coastal population • Evacuation fraud (crime) could rise against the coastal populations.
  6. 6. Futures Wheel 2 • Wheel 2 - Plan to Improve Storm Prediction Reliability; New math and models applied to Storm prediction (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model [HWRF]) and A Shelter Network plan is proposed by Mississippi State University Industrial and Systems Engineering and Civil and Environmental Engineering departments.
  7. 7. Futures Wheel - 2 Future of Emergency Preparedness Plan to Improve Storm Prediction Reliability Evacuation Indecision Increases Disconnected Cool Effect – Drop Out Increase in sale of Zombie Apocalypse Survival Gear for Weather Related Disasters Exclusive Social Networks Arise in Heavy Weather Areas Immigrant Technology Workers Become New Elite in Home Countries Meteorological Science Spawns Discipline of Weather Related Systems Engineers New Tech Requires New Workers Businesses Decide to Abandon Coasts Social and Psychological Services Engaged to Sell Trust Property Values Plummet Long Distance Transportation Improves Universities amid MOOC transition catch the STEM Wave New Laws Passed Easing Technology Worker Immigration Universally Available Education Sparks Democratic Revolution to Stop Climate Change The Return of the Lighter Than Air Airship Train to Ship Loading Interface Improves to Reduce Weather Exposure Massively Concentrated Coastal Property Ownership Threatens Tax Base Emergency Management Heroes Arise as Social Figures Radical Weather Anarchists Organize Blending of Cultures and Gene Pool Offsets Devastating Storm Casualties Lower Property Values Encourage Storm Tourists J. Breaux, 10/2013
  8. 8. Implications Wheel 2 Plan to Improve Storm Prediction Reliability Take-aways • Meteorological Science leading to a new disciplines of Engineers • Improving Ship to Rail interface for loading to avoid or minimize weather exposure • Immigration as a weather related disaster futures issue. Groups could be better off this change were to occur: • University/MOOC enrollment could increase to provide new technologists • A new Storm Tourism market might emerge for thrill seekers • A new industry in weather disaster Survival gear might arise • Terra-Forming projects provide thousands of jobs • Tech Industry Immigrants given better opportunities. Groups could be worse off if this change were to occur: • The poor that cannot afford premium evacuation services might get left behind • Larger coastal populations might contain more vulnerable people • Current Owners of property might see a decline in value • Insurance premiums might be unaffordable for property owners • Some at risk behavior (storm riders) might cause draconian laws to affect everyone else.
  9. 9. Key take-aways • Great method; took me places I might not have been going • Emergency Management Heroes; Judge Ed Emmett: Ike – “run from flood, hide from wind” • Evacuation Industry; playing on the increasing wealth divide (1%) • Politics – New Orleans Absentee voting; constituents with flexible geography
  10. 10. Questions??
  11. 11. References • NOAA, (Sep, 2013) National Coastal Population Report, 1970 – 2020. Retrieved from NOAA website http://stateofthecoast.noaa.gov/ • Vijay Tallapragada & HWRF Team, Performance of the 2013 NCEP Operational HWRF and Plans for 2014 Hurricane Season, 68th IHC/TCRF, March 5, 2014 • Li, Lingfeng, Jin, Mingzhou, Zhang, Li, Sheltering network planning and management with a case in the Gulf Coast region, International Journal of Production Economics, VL – 131, IS – 2, SP – 431, EP – 440, June 2011

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