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What explains the intensification
and diversification of Brazil´s
agricultural production and
exports from 1990 to 2012?
Carlos José Caetano Bacha
Leandro Vinicio de Carvalho
University of São Paulo - Brazil
Objective
• This paper aims to provide an account of the evolution of
Brazilian agriculture and agribusiness in the period from
1990 to 2012, paying particular attention to the growth and
diversification of exports and attempting to quantify the
main determinants of this.
• Specifically, the paper aims to:
a) Analyse the changes in Brazilian agriculture during this
period, mainly relating to production and farming areas;
b) Examine Brazilian agricultural policies to demonstrate the
ways in which policy has been market-oriented;
c) Run an econometric supply model of agricultural and agro-
processed export products, in order to quantify their main
determinants.
Hypothesis
• Our hypothesis is that Brazil does not have a predetermined ‘model’
calibrated for success in international agricultural markets. Rather,
the country has adopted a responsive and flexible approach.
Agricultural policies have been altered in response to constraints in
both domestic and international markets, but also in order to seize
opportunities arising in these markets. Additionally, Brazilian policy
has been tailored to take advantage of available arable land and the
country’s propitious climate for agriculture.
• Market-oriented agricultural policies such as rural credit, minimum
prices, agricultural insurance, agricultural research and rural
extension have been in action since the 1970s (although their
functioning has fluctuated according to domestic and international
constraints). Their main goal has been to stimulate tradable
production, and these policies have allowed farmers to occupy new
arable areas in order to produce what both domestic and
international markets have demanded.
Methodology and dataset
• The data is organized into tables and graphs to allow an
overview of the evolution in Brazilian agriculture and
agribusiness during 1990-2012.
• An econometric supply model is run to determine the main
variables that have influenced exports of agricultural and agro-
processed products.
• The dataset was collected from the Brazilian Institute of
Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Ministry of Development,
Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC) and from the Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO). These three sources offer
different information for the same variables, leading us to use
them in different ways.
𝑙𝑜�𝐸𝑋�� =�+�1 𝑙𝑜�𝑇�� +�2�� +�3 𝑙𝑜���� +�4 𝑙𝑜�𝑊𝐺𝐷�� +�4�+ �� (3)
Considering the main 63 crops (including sugarcane), agriculture production
summed up 384 million tons in 1990, 485 millions tons in 2000 and reached 966
million tons in 2012. Crop production has almost triplicated.
Results
Total meat production was 5.17 million tons in 1990, jumped to 10.33 million tons
in 2000 and reached 22.35 million tons in 2012. From 1990 thru 2012, meat
production has multiplied by 5.5 times.
Brazil´s exports of agricultural and agro-processed products jumped from US$ 10
billion in 1990 to almost US$ 88 billion in 2011 (they have multiplied by eight in
twenty years). A larger increase of Brazil´s agricultural and agro-processed exports
has taken place since 2000.
Simultaneously, Brazil´s market share in world agricultural exports has
increased (from 2.4% in 1990 to 5.6% in 2011), and EU´s and USA´s shares
have decreased.
What explain Brazilian agriculture
boom?
1) available unexploited arable land, especially inside the new
frontier opened during the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s in the
Centre-West region and during the 21st
century in Cerrado
areas bordering the states of Maranhão, Piauí, Tocantins
and Bahia (called MATOPIBA or BAMATOPI);
2) modern technology generated by EMBRAPA, public
university, state-funded agricultural research institute and
private-funded organizations;
3) state-funded market-oriented agricultural policies;
4) international markets available for Brazilian production and
the role of agribusiness multinational companies;
5) market-oriented farmers both into the family and non-family
farming.
Table 2 – Regional concentration indicators for agriculture (values in percentages related to total Brazil)
Region Year Gross
value of
Production
Total
farming
area
Temporary
cropland
Permanent
cropland
Herd size Tractors
cows pork poultries
North
1970 3.08 7.88 1.86 1.66 2.17 2.88 3.58 0.68
1985 3.98 12.06 3.18 6.90 4.19 7.10 3.77 1.03
1995/96 4.11 11.76 2.92 9.35 7.88 7.16 3.55 1.31
2006 3.74 12.27 3.76 15.16 14.72 4.32 1.84 2.06
Tocantins
1985 0.73 4.63 1.42 0.55 2.81 1.30 0.49 0.78
1995/96 0.75 4.74 0.71 0.30 3.41 0.78 0.33 0.99
2006 0.53 4.33 1.11 0.86 3.54 0.81 0.32 1.21
Northeast
1970 18.33 25.26 24.40 49.82 17.57 22.51 17.00 4.39
1985 24.55 17.04 23.87 42.95 17.49 25.83 17.95 6.27
1995/96 14.74 14.05 22.47 35.13 14.92 22.86 14.40 6.90
2006 19.76 22.91 24.15 30.24 14.76 12.63 8.59 7.60
Centre-
West
1970 7.46 27.78 8.69 1.80 21.96 7.96 5.67 6.23
1985 9.75 26.44 16.12 2.39 28.21 8.36 4.63 12.96
1995/96 14.40 30.69 18.48 3.27 33.17 8.10 5.93 14.27
2006 13.79 31.46 23.84 6.13 33.52 11.76 12.05 15.53
Southeast
1970 37.31 23.63 28.61 27.22 34.17 18.39 41.46 49.75
1985 38.47 19.53 23.17 38.10 27.91 18.39 33.52 35.92
1995/96 34.59 18.12 21.38 43.37 23.49 16.17 36.54 34.84
2006 33.34 16.44 18.94 34.78 19.85 16.78 31.20 31.30
South
1970 33.81 15.45 36.43 19.50 24.12 48.26 32.29 38.95
1985 30.03 12.79 32.24 9.11 19.39 39.02 39.63 43.04
1995/96 31.41 12.54 34.04 8.58 17.13 44.93 39.25 41.69
2006 28.83 12.59 28.21 12.83 13.61 53.71 45.99 42.28
Source: Agricultural Censuses of Brazil – several years.
New agricultural
frontiers have
been exploited,
such as, Centre-
West during the
1970´s thru 1990
´s, and
BAMAPITO during
the 2000s.
Table 1 - Use of land in Brazil – year of 2010
Land use Area (million hectares) Share of Brazil´s territory
Arable land 157.2 18.5%
With permanent crops(a)
6.3 0.74%
With temporary crops(a)
59.1 6.94%
With planted forests(b)
6.5 0.76%
Available to plant 85.3 10.02%
Pastures(c)
158.8 18.7%
Area occupied with native forests
and conservation units (d)
509.0 59.8%
Conservation units 133.0 15.6%
Indigenous land 108.0 12.7%
legal reserve and permanent
preservation areas inside the
farms
268.0 31.5%
Urban areas, roads, power plants
and other construction(d)
26.0 3.1%
BRAZILIAN TERRITORY 851 100%
Brazil still has
available arable land
to double its crop
production without
affecting conservation
areas.
Arable land
Agricultural research network
Embrapa Soybeans in Cerrado areas and cattle
Coopersucar, former Federal-funded
Sugar and Alcohol Institute (IAA) and the
São Paulo state-funded public universities
Sugarcane
Campinas´s Agronomy Institute (IAC) and
Federal-supported Brazilian Institute of
Coffee (IBC)
Coffee
Rio Grande do Sul´s Rice Institute (IRGA) rice
Embrapa is one among a huge network doing agricultural research in
Brazil; despite this agency has an important role to coordinate a large
range of crop and livestock researches
There is a strong relationship among research centres and
public universities forming a research network.
2000
1985
1965:
SNCR
1973/74:
Research
(EMBRAPA)
Rural extension
(EMBRATER)
Rural insurance
(PROAGRO)
1994: new
amendment of
PROAGRO and
emergence of
CPR Física
CPR
Financeira
was
launched
2006: PEPRO (new
minimum price
programme)
2004: New mechanisms of rural
loans
CDA
WA
CDCA
LCA
CRA
PROP (minimum price)
1997: new
minimum
prices
mechanism
(PEP and
COVPA)
1991:
amendment
of
PROAGRO
1964: Rural
Worker
Statue
(ETR) and
Land Statue
Rural credit
From 1964 to 1986: Brazil
was run by military
governments which
established policies and
programs with grants to
foreign-market oriented
farming
From 1987 thru 1999,
democratic governments
focused on reducing public
deficits and cut down
resources to traditional
agricultural policies as well
as private support was
pursued for market-oriented
farming
From 2000 thru 2013, left wing parties increased their
influence on Governments, which reduced grants to
non-family farming and created new programs to
support family farming, despite the coverage of these
programs is limited. Several ministries have taken care
of agriculture, specially MAPA and MDA. However, they
continue to support market-oriented policies
2003:
subvention
to rural
insurance
and PPA
were
created
1990:
shutdown of
federal
agricultural-
supported
bureau , such
as IBC, IAA,
Embrater and
others.
1996:
Kandir´s
Law and
PRONAF
MDA was
established
on
November,
25th, 1999.
Law 11,326, issued
on July 24th
, 2006,
know as Family
Farming Law
2012/13 – Two
agricultural
plans (MDA
versus MAPA)
1967 thru 1986: AGF and
EGF minimum price
policies were
predominantly allowed to
tradable agricultural
products
International markets available for Brazilian
production and the role of agribusiness multinational
companies
Table 3 – Brazil´s destination of agricultural and agro-processed exports – selected years
Region or country
Exported value (agricultural and agroprocessed products) – US$ thousand)
2000 thru
2011 Growth
rate (1)
1997 2000 2007 2011
European Union 9,510,405 0.51 7,924,958 0.50 20.047.032 0.41 23.360.653 0.27 294.77%
Latin America 1,963,529 0.11 1,990,036 0.12 4.073.300 0.08 7.258.953 0.08 364.76%
Mercosur 1,446,968 0.08 1,219,979 0.08 1.350.035 0.03 2.131.241 0.02 174.69%
Africa 879,530 0.05 602,373 0.04 3.710.998 0.08 8.622.317 0.10 1.431.39%
Asia 3,520,056 0.19 2,739,096 0.17 10.753.981 0.22 29.103.904 0.33 1.062.54%
Middle East 1,066,914 0.06 938,519 0.06 4,651,884 0.09 8,557,519 0.10 911.81%
EUA 2,211,691 0.12 2,334,404 0.15 5.234.300 0.11 6.377.538 0.07 273.20%
Japan 1,182,081 0.06 920,490 0.06 1.679.897 0.03 3.426.046 0.04 372.20%
China 704,354 0.04 560,055 0.04 4.605.886 0.09 15.892.832 0.18 2,837.73%
Russia 686,088 0.04 411,381 0.03 10,477 0.0002 4,023,495 0.05 978.04%
India 55,145 0.003 86,119 0.01 21,669 0.0004 391,390 0.004 454.48%
Total exported (2)
18,649,278 15,966,235 49,269,996,000 87,650,130 548.97%
Large agribusiness multinational companies have an important role in
financing, buying and exporting the Brazil´s agricultural production, as
well as industrializing them.
New
markets:
Africa, Asia
and Middle-
East, with
special
attention to
China
Family versus non-family farming:
market-oriented
• What is family farming?
• According to Law 11,326, issued on July 24th,
2006, family farming property needs to fulfill
simulstaneously with:
• 1st
) total farming area needs to be at most 4 fiscal
modes,
• 2nd
) to employ at most two salaried workers;
• 3rd
) the farmer needs to earns income only from
farming.
Table 4 – Distribution of agricultural gross production according ranks – family versus non-family farmers
Annual agricultural production revenue Share of family farming
agricultural revenue
Share of non-family
farming agricultural
revenue
More than zero less than R$ 2.5 thousand per year 3.1 0.2
From R$ 2.5 thousand to less than R$ 10 thousand per year 9.1 0.7
From R$ 10 thousand to less than R$ 25 thousand per year 13.9 1.6
From R$ 25 thousand to less than R$ 50 thousand per year 14.2 2.5
From R$ 50 thousand to less than R$ 100 thousand per year 13.2 4.2
From R$ 100 thousand to less than R$ 500 thousand per year 23.1 18.7
R$ 500 thousand or more per year 23.5 72.1
Family
farming is
not equal to
poverty.
Table 5 – Importance of family and non-family farming into the main agricultural products and their share that is sold
into the market (values in percentages)
Product Share quantity produced by Share of the production sold into the market
Family farming Non-family farming Family farming Non-family farming
Beans 70.8 29.2 50.3 87.0
Coffee 38 62 91.2 89.1
Corn 45.6 54.4 49.0 88.9
Cotton 2.3 97.7 98.3 76.4
Orange 16.4 83.6 99.8 99.9
Milk 57.6 42.4 90.2 92.2
Soybeans 14 86. 96.3 98.9
Rice 33.1 66.9 51.2 92.2
Wheat 21.2 78.8 94.8 94.5
Source: Brazil´s 2006 Agricultural Census.
Family farming is market-oriented as well
as non-family farming.
Agricultural and agro-processed exports
Agro-processed products have been
responsible for almost two thirds of
total agro-based exports. At first
glance, the evolution of agro-
processed exports is similar to that of
agricultural exports. However, some
differences appear, particularly in
1997, 2009 and 2011 when for
instance agricultural product exports
increased more than agro-processed
product exports, or when the former
was stable despite the later
decreasing.
As seen in Figure 8, the HHI index
for agro-processed exports
decreased from 0.44 in 1991 to
0.26 in 2011, while for agricultural
exports in the same period the
index increased from 0.41 to 0.46.
Notably, the diversification is
higher for agro-processed product
exports than for agricultural
product exports.
Supply equation of exports
𝑙𝑜�𝐸𝑋�� =�+�1 𝑙𝑜�𝑇�� +�2�� +�3 𝑙𝑜���� +�4 𝑙𝑜�𝑊𝐺𝐷�� +�4�+ �� (3)
We run:
Chart 3: explanatory variables used in Equation (3)
Explanatory variable Description Source
Brazil´s agricultural and agro-
processed exports
EXPt
Agricultural, forest, agro-processed exports
have been added (US$ million)
FAO
Total agricultural production TPt
Index of Brazil´s agricultural production,
2002 = 100
IBGE
Exchange rate et
Purchasing power of Real in relation to the
16 major Brazilian partners´ currencies. An
index with 2005 = 100
IPEA
International Price Index PIt
Index of agricultural and agro-processed
product prices. Calculated by dividing
value of exports over quantity exported
FAO
World GDP WGDPt Sum of all countries’ GDP (US$ million). World Bank
Supply equation of exportsTable 5 – results from equation (1) run by using the ordinary least squares method (OLS) and the generalized least
squares method (GLS)
Agroprocess
edexports
Coefficients -26.41764*
0.945757** -0.082116*
0.050732 ns
1.594243*
Standard deviation 1.193903 0.505315 0.144928 0.144232 0,147778
t-statistic -22.12713 1.871618 -0,566601 0.351735 10.78811
F-statistic 509.2316* Durbin-Watson = 1.381537 VIF = 7.58ns
Breusch-Godfrey (chi2) = 1.344ns
R2
= 0.990258 White test (F) = 1.751888ns
Totalagro-
based
exports
Coefficients -28.22800*
1.285355* 0.080861ns
0.191643ns
1.564041*
Standard deviation 0.901602 0.433108 0.139098 0.116260 0.112789
t-statistic -31.30873 2.967749 0.581326 1.648408 13.86698
F-statistic 735.9119* Durbin-Watson = 1.679515 VIF = 6.64ns
Breusch-Godfrey (chi2) = 0.229ns
R2
= 0.993242 White test (F) = 0.3961ns
Source: results from the research.
Note: * 1% significant, ** 5% significant, *** 10% significant.
constant lnTP lne lnPI lnWGDP
Agricultural
exports
(usingOLS)
Coefficients -35.83536 1.802589*** 0.272786 ns
0.207186 ns
1.694405*
Standard deviation 2.726899 0.937143 0.313899 0.168377 0.199155
t-statistic -13.14144 1.923494 0.869021 1.230487 8.507962
F-statistic = 177.3856* Durbin-Watson = 1.719434 VIF = 5.29ns
Breusch-Godfrey (chi2) = 0.130 ns
R2
= 0.972434 White test (F) = 3.961930**
Agricultural
exports
(usingGLS)
Coefficients -35.83536 1.802590*** 0.272786 ns
0.207186 ns
1.694405*
Standard deviation 3.012747 0.860401 0.285142 0.169827 0.205233
t-statistic -11.89458 2.095058 0.956667 1.219984 8.256024
F-statistic = 177.3856* Durbin-Watson = 1.719434 VIF = 5.29ns
Breusch-Godfrey (chi2) = 0.130ns
R2
= 0.972434
According to Table 5, total production (TP), international prices (PI) and
World GDP (WGDP) display the expected signals even though only TP and
WGDP coefficients are statistically significant. The exchange rate coefficient
has the expected signal for agricultural and total agro-based product
exports, but the coefficients were not statistically significant in any equation.
Conclusion
From 1990-2012, a huge increase in both crop and livestock production
took place. In 1990, the quantity produced of the 63 major crops was 384
million tonnes, rising to 485 million tonnes by 2000 and reaching 966
million tons by 2012. In the same years, meat production was 5.17, 10.3
and 22.3 thousand tons respectively.
This increase in production is due to several primary factors:
1.market-oriented agricultural policies, but with higher subsidies to family
farms;
2.the presence of agricultural frontiers and business farmers, especially
the soybean farmers who have migrated within Brazil;
3.the presence of large domestic and foreign companies who have
guaranteed the purchase of Brazilian agricultural products, thereby
financing a large share of business farmers as well as agricultural exports;
4.an agricultural technology network encompassing federal and state-
funded bureaux, universities, private organizations and companies.
• Since 1990, and particularly during the 2000s, Brazil has
experienced very high growth in agricultural and agro-industrial
exports, which rose from US$ 10 billion in 1990 to US$ 16 billion in
2000 and had shot up to US$ 88 billion by 2011. Simultaneously,
Brazil´s share of the worldwide food supply market increased from
2.4% in 1990 to 2.9 % by 2000, and to 5.6% by 2011.
• Several factors can explain this growth; in particular, increasing
domestic production, the growth of world consumption, and changes
in the exchange rate have been key. Also relevant, although not of
the same importance, are changes in international prices. According
to the econometric model run in this study, the main determinant of
Brazil´s agricultural and agro-industrial export growth has been the
increase in world GDP (with an elasticity of 1.56, meaning that each
1% increase in world GDP implied a 1.56% increase in Brazilian
exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products). The second
most important determinant was the increase in domestic production,
with an elasticity of 1.29.
Conclusion
Basing on the fact that Brazilian Centre-West and MATOPIBA
areas have similar eco-climatic features as savannahs have into
the African continent, the Brazilian experience in boosting both its
agriculture and agribusiness would generate some lessons to be
followed by some African countries, such as:
1)these countries should create friendly and trusty economic and
political environment for large multinational agricultural companies
(which are nowadays essential for achieving exports of agricultural
products),
2)Create a domestic research network (especially linked with
universities)
3)Adopt market-oriented agricultural policies which grant subsidies
parsimoniously for less capitalized farmers.
Conclusion

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What explains the intensification of Brazilian agricultural production?

  • 1. What explains the intensification and diversification of Brazil´s agricultural production and exports from 1990 to 2012? Carlos José Caetano Bacha Leandro Vinicio de Carvalho University of São Paulo - Brazil
  • 2. Objective • This paper aims to provide an account of the evolution of Brazilian agriculture and agribusiness in the period from 1990 to 2012, paying particular attention to the growth and diversification of exports and attempting to quantify the main determinants of this. • Specifically, the paper aims to: a) Analyse the changes in Brazilian agriculture during this period, mainly relating to production and farming areas; b) Examine Brazilian agricultural policies to demonstrate the ways in which policy has been market-oriented; c) Run an econometric supply model of agricultural and agro- processed export products, in order to quantify their main determinants.
  • 3. Hypothesis • Our hypothesis is that Brazil does not have a predetermined ‘model’ calibrated for success in international agricultural markets. Rather, the country has adopted a responsive and flexible approach. Agricultural policies have been altered in response to constraints in both domestic and international markets, but also in order to seize opportunities arising in these markets. Additionally, Brazilian policy has been tailored to take advantage of available arable land and the country’s propitious climate for agriculture. • Market-oriented agricultural policies such as rural credit, minimum prices, agricultural insurance, agricultural research and rural extension have been in action since the 1970s (although their functioning has fluctuated according to domestic and international constraints). Their main goal has been to stimulate tradable production, and these policies have allowed farmers to occupy new arable areas in order to produce what both domestic and international markets have demanded.
  • 4. Methodology and dataset • The data is organized into tables and graphs to allow an overview of the evolution in Brazilian agriculture and agribusiness during 1990-2012. • An econometric supply model is run to determine the main variables that have influenced exports of agricultural and agro- processed products. • The dataset was collected from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC) and from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). These three sources offer different information for the same variables, leading us to use them in different ways. 𝑙𝑜�𝐸𝑋�� =�+�1 𝑙𝑜�𝑇�� +�2�� +�3 𝑙𝑜���� +�4 𝑙𝑜�𝑊𝐺𝐷�� +�4�+ �� (3)
  • 5. Considering the main 63 crops (including sugarcane), agriculture production summed up 384 million tons in 1990, 485 millions tons in 2000 and reached 966 million tons in 2012. Crop production has almost triplicated. Results
  • 6. Total meat production was 5.17 million tons in 1990, jumped to 10.33 million tons in 2000 and reached 22.35 million tons in 2012. From 1990 thru 2012, meat production has multiplied by 5.5 times.
  • 7. Brazil´s exports of agricultural and agro-processed products jumped from US$ 10 billion in 1990 to almost US$ 88 billion in 2011 (they have multiplied by eight in twenty years). A larger increase of Brazil´s agricultural and agro-processed exports has taken place since 2000.
  • 8. Simultaneously, Brazil´s market share in world agricultural exports has increased (from 2.4% in 1990 to 5.6% in 2011), and EU´s and USA´s shares have decreased.
  • 9. What explain Brazilian agriculture boom? 1) available unexploited arable land, especially inside the new frontier opened during the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s in the Centre-West region and during the 21st century in Cerrado areas bordering the states of Maranhão, Piauí, Tocantins and Bahia (called MATOPIBA or BAMATOPI); 2) modern technology generated by EMBRAPA, public university, state-funded agricultural research institute and private-funded organizations; 3) state-funded market-oriented agricultural policies; 4) international markets available for Brazilian production and the role of agribusiness multinational companies; 5) market-oriented farmers both into the family and non-family farming.
  • 10. Table 2 – Regional concentration indicators for agriculture (values in percentages related to total Brazil) Region Year Gross value of Production Total farming area Temporary cropland Permanent cropland Herd size Tractors cows pork poultries North 1970 3.08 7.88 1.86 1.66 2.17 2.88 3.58 0.68 1985 3.98 12.06 3.18 6.90 4.19 7.10 3.77 1.03 1995/96 4.11 11.76 2.92 9.35 7.88 7.16 3.55 1.31 2006 3.74 12.27 3.76 15.16 14.72 4.32 1.84 2.06 Tocantins 1985 0.73 4.63 1.42 0.55 2.81 1.30 0.49 0.78 1995/96 0.75 4.74 0.71 0.30 3.41 0.78 0.33 0.99 2006 0.53 4.33 1.11 0.86 3.54 0.81 0.32 1.21 Northeast 1970 18.33 25.26 24.40 49.82 17.57 22.51 17.00 4.39 1985 24.55 17.04 23.87 42.95 17.49 25.83 17.95 6.27 1995/96 14.74 14.05 22.47 35.13 14.92 22.86 14.40 6.90 2006 19.76 22.91 24.15 30.24 14.76 12.63 8.59 7.60 Centre- West 1970 7.46 27.78 8.69 1.80 21.96 7.96 5.67 6.23 1985 9.75 26.44 16.12 2.39 28.21 8.36 4.63 12.96 1995/96 14.40 30.69 18.48 3.27 33.17 8.10 5.93 14.27 2006 13.79 31.46 23.84 6.13 33.52 11.76 12.05 15.53 Southeast 1970 37.31 23.63 28.61 27.22 34.17 18.39 41.46 49.75 1985 38.47 19.53 23.17 38.10 27.91 18.39 33.52 35.92 1995/96 34.59 18.12 21.38 43.37 23.49 16.17 36.54 34.84 2006 33.34 16.44 18.94 34.78 19.85 16.78 31.20 31.30 South 1970 33.81 15.45 36.43 19.50 24.12 48.26 32.29 38.95 1985 30.03 12.79 32.24 9.11 19.39 39.02 39.63 43.04 1995/96 31.41 12.54 34.04 8.58 17.13 44.93 39.25 41.69 2006 28.83 12.59 28.21 12.83 13.61 53.71 45.99 42.28 Source: Agricultural Censuses of Brazil – several years. New agricultural frontiers have been exploited, such as, Centre- West during the 1970´s thru 1990 ´s, and BAMAPITO during the 2000s. Table 1 - Use of land in Brazil – year of 2010 Land use Area (million hectares) Share of Brazil´s territory Arable land 157.2 18.5% With permanent crops(a) 6.3 0.74% With temporary crops(a) 59.1 6.94% With planted forests(b) 6.5 0.76% Available to plant 85.3 10.02% Pastures(c) 158.8 18.7% Area occupied with native forests and conservation units (d) 509.0 59.8% Conservation units 133.0 15.6% Indigenous land 108.0 12.7% legal reserve and permanent preservation areas inside the farms 268.0 31.5% Urban areas, roads, power plants and other construction(d) 26.0 3.1% BRAZILIAN TERRITORY 851 100% Brazil still has available arable land to double its crop production without affecting conservation areas. Arable land
  • 11. Agricultural research network Embrapa Soybeans in Cerrado areas and cattle Coopersucar, former Federal-funded Sugar and Alcohol Institute (IAA) and the São Paulo state-funded public universities Sugarcane Campinas´s Agronomy Institute (IAC) and Federal-supported Brazilian Institute of Coffee (IBC) Coffee Rio Grande do Sul´s Rice Institute (IRGA) rice Embrapa is one among a huge network doing agricultural research in Brazil; despite this agency has an important role to coordinate a large range of crop and livestock researches There is a strong relationship among research centres and public universities forming a research network.
  • 12. 2000 1985 1965: SNCR 1973/74: Research (EMBRAPA) Rural extension (EMBRATER) Rural insurance (PROAGRO) 1994: new amendment of PROAGRO and emergence of CPR Física CPR Financeira was launched 2006: PEPRO (new minimum price programme) 2004: New mechanisms of rural loans CDA WA CDCA LCA CRA PROP (minimum price) 1997: new minimum prices mechanism (PEP and COVPA) 1991: amendment of PROAGRO 1964: Rural Worker Statue (ETR) and Land Statue Rural credit From 1964 to 1986: Brazil was run by military governments which established policies and programs with grants to foreign-market oriented farming From 1987 thru 1999, democratic governments focused on reducing public deficits and cut down resources to traditional agricultural policies as well as private support was pursued for market-oriented farming From 2000 thru 2013, left wing parties increased their influence on Governments, which reduced grants to non-family farming and created new programs to support family farming, despite the coverage of these programs is limited. Several ministries have taken care of agriculture, specially MAPA and MDA. However, they continue to support market-oriented policies 2003: subvention to rural insurance and PPA were created 1990: shutdown of federal agricultural- supported bureau , such as IBC, IAA, Embrater and others. 1996: Kandir´s Law and PRONAF MDA was established on November, 25th, 1999. Law 11,326, issued on July 24th , 2006, know as Family Farming Law 2012/13 – Two agricultural plans (MDA versus MAPA) 1967 thru 1986: AGF and EGF minimum price policies were predominantly allowed to tradable agricultural products
  • 13. International markets available for Brazilian production and the role of agribusiness multinational companies Table 3 – Brazil´s destination of agricultural and agro-processed exports – selected years Region or country Exported value (agricultural and agroprocessed products) – US$ thousand) 2000 thru 2011 Growth rate (1) 1997 2000 2007 2011 European Union 9,510,405 0.51 7,924,958 0.50 20.047.032 0.41 23.360.653 0.27 294.77% Latin America 1,963,529 0.11 1,990,036 0.12 4.073.300 0.08 7.258.953 0.08 364.76% Mercosur 1,446,968 0.08 1,219,979 0.08 1.350.035 0.03 2.131.241 0.02 174.69% Africa 879,530 0.05 602,373 0.04 3.710.998 0.08 8.622.317 0.10 1.431.39% Asia 3,520,056 0.19 2,739,096 0.17 10.753.981 0.22 29.103.904 0.33 1.062.54% Middle East 1,066,914 0.06 938,519 0.06 4,651,884 0.09 8,557,519 0.10 911.81% EUA 2,211,691 0.12 2,334,404 0.15 5.234.300 0.11 6.377.538 0.07 273.20% Japan 1,182,081 0.06 920,490 0.06 1.679.897 0.03 3.426.046 0.04 372.20% China 704,354 0.04 560,055 0.04 4.605.886 0.09 15.892.832 0.18 2,837.73% Russia 686,088 0.04 411,381 0.03 10,477 0.0002 4,023,495 0.05 978.04% India 55,145 0.003 86,119 0.01 21,669 0.0004 391,390 0.004 454.48% Total exported (2) 18,649,278 15,966,235 49,269,996,000 87,650,130 548.97% Large agribusiness multinational companies have an important role in financing, buying and exporting the Brazil´s agricultural production, as well as industrializing them. New markets: Africa, Asia and Middle- East, with special attention to China
  • 14. Family versus non-family farming: market-oriented • What is family farming? • According to Law 11,326, issued on July 24th, 2006, family farming property needs to fulfill simulstaneously with: • 1st ) total farming area needs to be at most 4 fiscal modes, • 2nd ) to employ at most two salaried workers; • 3rd ) the farmer needs to earns income only from farming.
  • 15. Table 4 – Distribution of agricultural gross production according ranks – family versus non-family farmers Annual agricultural production revenue Share of family farming agricultural revenue Share of non-family farming agricultural revenue More than zero less than R$ 2.5 thousand per year 3.1 0.2 From R$ 2.5 thousand to less than R$ 10 thousand per year 9.1 0.7 From R$ 10 thousand to less than R$ 25 thousand per year 13.9 1.6 From R$ 25 thousand to less than R$ 50 thousand per year 14.2 2.5 From R$ 50 thousand to less than R$ 100 thousand per year 13.2 4.2 From R$ 100 thousand to less than R$ 500 thousand per year 23.1 18.7 R$ 500 thousand or more per year 23.5 72.1 Family farming is not equal to poverty. Table 5 – Importance of family and non-family farming into the main agricultural products and their share that is sold into the market (values in percentages) Product Share quantity produced by Share of the production sold into the market Family farming Non-family farming Family farming Non-family farming Beans 70.8 29.2 50.3 87.0 Coffee 38 62 91.2 89.1 Corn 45.6 54.4 49.0 88.9 Cotton 2.3 97.7 98.3 76.4 Orange 16.4 83.6 99.8 99.9 Milk 57.6 42.4 90.2 92.2 Soybeans 14 86. 96.3 98.9 Rice 33.1 66.9 51.2 92.2 Wheat 21.2 78.8 94.8 94.5 Source: Brazil´s 2006 Agricultural Census. Family farming is market-oriented as well as non-family farming.
  • 16. Agricultural and agro-processed exports Agro-processed products have been responsible for almost two thirds of total agro-based exports. At first glance, the evolution of agro- processed exports is similar to that of agricultural exports. However, some differences appear, particularly in 1997, 2009 and 2011 when for instance agricultural product exports increased more than agro-processed product exports, or when the former was stable despite the later decreasing. As seen in Figure 8, the HHI index for agro-processed exports decreased from 0.44 in 1991 to 0.26 in 2011, while for agricultural exports in the same period the index increased from 0.41 to 0.46. Notably, the diversification is higher for agro-processed product exports than for agricultural product exports.
  • 17. Supply equation of exports 𝑙𝑜�𝐸𝑋�� =�+�1 𝑙𝑜�𝑇�� +�2�� +�3 𝑙𝑜���� +�4 𝑙𝑜�𝑊𝐺𝐷�� +�4�+ �� (3) We run: Chart 3: explanatory variables used in Equation (3) Explanatory variable Description Source Brazil´s agricultural and agro- processed exports EXPt Agricultural, forest, agro-processed exports have been added (US$ million) FAO Total agricultural production TPt Index of Brazil´s agricultural production, 2002 = 100 IBGE Exchange rate et Purchasing power of Real in relation to the 16 major Brazilian partners´ currencies. An index with 2005 = 100 IPEA International Price Index PIt Index of agricultural and agro-processed product prices. Calculated by dividing value of exports over quantity exported FAO World GDP WGDPt Sum of all countries’ GDP (US$ million). World Bank
  • 18. Supply equation of exportsTable 5 – results from equation (1) run by using the ordinary least squares method (OLS) and the generalized least squares method (GLS) Agroprocess edexports Coefficients -26.41764* 0.945757** -0.082116* 0.050732 ns 1.594243* Standard deviation 1.193903 0.505315 0.144928 0.144232 0,147778 t-statistic -22.12713 1.871618 -0,566601 0.351735 10.78811 F-statistic 509.2316* Durbin-Watson = 1.381537 VIF = 7.58ns Breusch-Godfrey (chi2) = 1.344ns R2 = 0.990258 White test (F) = 1.751888ns Totalagro- based exports Coefficients -28.22800* 1.285355* 0.080861ns 0.191643ns 1.564041* Standard deviation 0.901602 0.433108 0.139098 0.116260 0.112789 t-statistic -31.30873 2.967749 0.581326 1.648408 13.86698 F-statistic 735.9119* Durbin-Watson = 1.679515 VIF = 6.64ns Breusch-Godfrey (chi2) = 0.229ns R2 = 0.993242 White test (F) = 0.3961ns Source: results from the research. Note: * 1% significant, ** 5% significant, *** 10% significant. constant lnTP lne lnPI lnWGDP Agricultural exports (usingOLS) Coefficients -35.83536 1.802589*** 0.272786 ns 0.207186 ns 1.694405* Standard deviation 2.726899 0.937143 0.313899 0.168377 0.199155 t-statistic -13.14144 1.923494 0.869021 1.230487 8.507962 F-statistic = 177.3856* Durbin-Watson = 1.719434 VIF = 5.29ns Breusch-Godfrey (chi2) = 0.130 ns R2 = 0.972434 White test (F) = 3.961930** Agricultural exports (usingGLS) Coefficients -35.83536 1.802590*** 0.272786 ns 0.207186 ns 1.694405* Standard deviation 3.012747 0.860401 0.285142 0.169827 0.205233 t-statistic -11.89458 2.095058 0.956667 1.219984 8.256024 F-statistic = 177.3856* Durbin-Watson = 1.719434 VIF = 5.29ns Breusch-Godfrey (chi2) = 0.130ns R2 = 0.972434 According to Table 5, total production (TP), international prices (PI) and World GDP (WGDP) display the expected signals even though only TP and WGDP coefficients are statistically significant. The exchange rate coefficient has the expected signal for agricultural and total agro-based product exports, but the coefficients were not statistically significant in any equation.
  • 19. Conclusion From 1990-2012, a huge increase in both crop and livestock production took place. In 1990, the quantity produced of the 63 major crops was 384 million tonnes, rising to 485 million tonnes by 2000 and reaching 966 million tons by 2012. In the same years, meat production was 5.17, 10.3 and 22.3 thousand tons respectively. This increase in production is due to several primary factors: 1.market-oriented agricultural policies, but with higher subsidies to family farms; 2.the presence of agricultural frontiers and business farmers, especially the soybean farmers who have migrated within Brazil; 3.the presence of large domestic and foreign companies who have guaranteed the purchase of Brazilian agricultural products, thereby financing a large share of business farmers as well as agricultural exports; 4.an agricultural technology network encompassing federal and state- funded bureaux, universities, private organizations and companies.
  • 20. • Since 1990, and particularly during the 2000s, Brazil has experienced very high growth in agricultural and agro-industrial exports, which rose from US$ 10 billion in 1990 to US$ 16 billion in 2000 and had shot up to US$ 88 billion by 2011. Simultaneously, Brazil´s share of the worldwide food supply market increased from 2.4% in 1990 to 2.9 % by 2000, and to 5.6% by 2011. • Several factors can explain this growth; in particular, increasing domestic production, the growth of world consumption, and changes in the exchange rate have been key. Also relevant, although not of the same importance, are changes in international prices. According to the econometric model run in this study, the main determinant of Brazil´s agricultural and agro-industrial export growth has been the increase in world GDP (with an elasticity of 1.56, meaning that each 1% increase in world GDP implied a 1.56% increase in Brazilian exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products). The second most important determinant was the increase in domestic production, with an elasticity of 1.29. Conclusion
  • 21. Basing on the fact that Brazilian Centre-West and MATOPIBA areas have similar eco-climatic features as savannahs have into the African continent, the Brazilian experience in boosting both its agriculture and agribusiness would generate some lessons to be followed by some African countries, such as: 1)these countries should create friendly and trusty economic and political environment for large multinational agricultural companies (which are nowadays essential for achieving exports of agricultural products), 2)Create a domestic research network (especially linked with universities) 3)Adopt market-oriented agricultural policies which grant subsidies parsimoniously for less capitalized farmers. Conclusion