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Multinational Finance Solutions

  1. 1. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems Solutions to End-of-ChapterQuestions and Problems inMultinational Financeby Kirt C. Butler 1
  2. 2. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd edition Second Edition 2
  3. 3. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and ProblemsPART I Overview and BackgroundChapter 1 Introduction to Multinational FinanceAnswers to Conceptual Questions1.1 Describe the ways in which multinational financial management is different from domestic financial management. Multinational financial management is conducted in an environment that is influenced by more than one cultural, social, political, or economic environment.1.2 What is country risk? Describe several types of country risk one might face when conducting business in another country. Country risks refer to the political and financial risks of conducting business in a particular foreign country. Country risks include foreign exchange risk, political risk, and cultural risk.1.3 What is foreign exchange risk? Foreign exchange (or currency) risk is the risk of unexpected changes in foreign currency exchange rates.1.4 What is political risk? Political risk is the risk that a sovereign host government will unexpectedly change the rules of the game under which businesses operate.1.5 In what ways do cultural differences impact the conduct of international business? Because they define the rules of the game, national business and popular cultures impact each of the functional disciplines of business from research and development right through to marketing, production, and distribution.1.6 What is the goal of financial management? How might this goal be different in different countries? How might the goal of financial management be different for the multinational corporation than for the domestic corporation? The goal of financial management is to make decisions that maximize the value of the enterprise to some group of stakeholders. The society in which business is conducted determines who these stakeholders are. The relative importance of stakeholders varies by country. Equity shareholders are important in every free-market country. Commercial banks are more important in some countries (e.g., Germany and Japan) than in some other countries (e.g., the United States and the United Kingdom). In socialist countries, the welfare of employees and the general population assume a more prominent role.1.7 List the MNC’s key stakeholders. How does each have a stake in the MNC? Stakeholders narrowly defined include shareholders, debtholders, and management. More broadly defined, stakeholders also would include employees, suppliers, customers, host governments, and residents of host countries. 3
  4. 4. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd editionChapter 2 World Trade and the International Monetary SystemAnswers to Conceptual Questions2.1 List one or more trade pacts in which your country is involved. Do these trade pacts affect all residents of your country in the same way? On balance, are these trade pacts good or bad for residents of your country? Figure 2.1 lists the major international trade pacts. The World Trade Organization (WTO) is a supranational organization that oversees the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Important regional trade pacts include the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA includes the U.S., Canada, and Mexico), the European Union (EU), and the Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation pact (APEC encompasses most countries around the Pacific Rim including Japan, China, and the United States). Trade pacts are designed to promote trade, but industries that have been protected by local governments can find that they are uncompetitive when forced to compete in global markets.2.2 Do countries tend to export more or less of their gross national product today than in years past? What are the reasons for this trend? Most countries export more of their gross national product today than in years past. Reasons include: a) the global trend toward free market economies, b) the rapid industrialization of some developing countries, c) the breakup of the former Soviet Union and the entry of China into international trade, d) the rise of regional trade pacts and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and e) advances in communication and in transportation.2.3 How has globalization in the world’s goods markets affected world trade? How has globalization in the world’s financial markets affected world trade? Some of the economic consequences of globalization in the world’s goods markets include: a) an increase in cross-border investment in real assets (land, natural resource projects, and manufacturing facilities), b) an increasing interdependence between national economies leading to global business cycles that are shared by all nations, and c) changing political risk for multinational corporations as nations redefine their borders as well as their national identities. The demise of capital flow barriers in international financial markets has had several consequences including: a) an increase in cross-border financing as multinational corporations raise capital in whichever market and in whatever currency offers the most attractive rates, b) an increasing number of cross-border partnerships including many international mergers, acquisitions, and joint ventures, and c) increasingly interdependent national financial markets.2.4 What distinguishes developed, less developed, and newly industrializing economies? Developed economies have a well-developed manufacturing base. Less developed countries (LDCs) lack this industrial base. Countries that have seen recent growth in their industrial base are called newly industrializing countries (NICs). 4
  5. 5. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems2.5 Describe the International Monetary Fund’s balance-of-payments accounting system. The IMF publishes a monthly summary of cross-border transactions that tracks each country’s cross-border flow of goods, services, and capital.2.6 How would an economist categorize systems for trading foreign exchange? How would the IMF make this classification? In what ways are these the same? How are they different? Economists have traditionally classified exchange rate systems as either fixed rate or floating rate systems. The IMF has adapted this system to the plethora of systems in practice today. The IMF’s classification scheme includes “more flexible,” “limited flexibility,” and “pegged” exchange rate systems.2.7 Describe the Bretton Woods agreement. How long did the agreement last? What forced its collapse? After World War II, representatives of the Allied nations convened at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire to stabilize financial markets and promote world trade. Under Bretton Woods’ “gold exchange standard,” currencies were pegged to the price of gold (or to the U.S. dollar). Bretton Woods also created the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (the World Bank). The Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system lasted until 1970, when high U.S. inflation relative to gold prices and to other currencies forced the dollar off the gold exchange standard.2.8 What factors contributed to the Mexican peso crisis of 1995 and to the Asian crises of 1997? In each instance, the government tried to maintained the value of the local currency at artificially high levels. This depleted foreign currency reserves. Local businesses and governments were also borrowing in non-local currencies (primarily the dollar), which heavily exposed them to a drop in the value of the local currency.2.9 What is moral hazard and how does it relate to IMF rescue packages? Moral hazard occurs when the existence of a contract changes the behaviors of parties to the contract. When the IMF assists countries in defending their currencies, it changes the expectations and hence the behaviors of lenders, borrowers, and governments. For example, lenders might underestimate the risks of lending to struggling economies if there is an expectation that the IMF will intervene during difficult times.Problem Solutions2.1 This problem will take a bit of research for the student. Places to start include the Russian ruble crisis of 1998 and continuing currency troubles in South America. 5
  6. 6. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd editionPART II International Currency and Eurocurrency MarketsChapter 3 The Foreign Exchange and Eurocurrency MarketsAnswers to Conceptual Questions3.1 What is Rule #1 when dealing with foreign exchange? Why is it important? Rule #1 says to “Keep track of your currency units.” It is important because foreign exchange prices have a currency in both the numerator and the denominator. Most prices (for instance, a $15,000/car price on a new car) have a non-currency asset in the denominator and a currency in the numerator.3.2 What is Rule #2 when dealing with foreign exchange? Why is it important? Rule #2 says to “Always think of buying or selling the currency in the denominator of a foreign exchange quote.” The importance of this rule is related to that of Rule #1. Foreign exchange quotes have a currency in both the numerator and the denominator. The rule “buy low and sell high” only works for the currency in the denominator.3.3 What are the functions of the foreign exchange market? Currency markets transfer purchasing power from one currency to another, either today (in the spot market) or at a future date (in the forward market). When used with Eurocurrency markets, foreign exchange markets allow investors to move value both across currencies and over time. Foreign exchange markets also facilitate hedging and speculation.3.4 Define allocational, operational, and informational efficiency. Allocational efficiency refers to how efficiently a market channels capital toward its most productive uses. Operational efficiency refers to how large an influence transactions costs and other market frictions have on the operation of a market. Informational efficiency refers to whether or not prices reflect value.3.5 What is a forward premium? A forward discount? Why are forward prices for foreign currency seldom equal to current spot prices? A currency is trading at a forward premium when the nominal value of that currency in the forward market is higher than in the spot market. A currency is trading at a forward discount when the nominal value of that currency in the forward market is lower than in the spot market. Forward exchange rates will be different than spot exchange rates whenever investors expect currency values to change in nominal terms.Problem Solutions3.1 a. The bid rate is less than the offer rate, so Citicorp is quoting the currency in the denominator. Citicorp is buying dollars at the FF5.62/$ bid rate and selling dollars at the FF5.87/$ offer rate. b. In American terms, the bid is $0.1704/FF and the ask is $0.1779/FF. Citicorp is buying and selling French francs at these quotes. c. In direct terms, the bid quote for the dollar is $0.1779/FF and the ask is $0.1704/FF. 6
  7. 7. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems d. Sell $1,000,000 (FF5.62/$) = FF5,620,000 = amount you receive Buy $1,000,000 (FF5.87/$) = FF5,870,000 = amount you pay Your net loss is FF 250,000. What you lose, Citicorp gains.3.2 The ask price is higher than the bid, so these are the rates at which the bank is willing to buy or sell dollars (in the denominator). You’re selling dollars, so you’ll get the bank’s dollar bid price. You need to pay SK10,000,000/(SK7.5050/$) = $1,332,445.04.3.3 The U.S. dollar (in the denominator) is selling at a forward premium, so the Canadian dollar must be selling at a forward discount. Percent per annum on the Canadian dollar from the U.S. perspective are as follows: Bid Ask One month forward -0.486% -1.456% Three months forward -0.873% -1.034% Six months forward -0.678% -0.758% Annualized forward premia on the U.S. dollar are: Bid Ask One month forward +0.486% +1.457% Three months forward +0.875% +1.036% Six months forward +0.681% +0.761% The premiums/discounts on the two currencies are opposite in sign and nearly equal in magnitude. Forward premiums and discounts are of slightly different magnitude because the bases (U$ vs. C$) on which they are calculated are different. Forward premiums/discounts are as stated above regardless of where a trader resides.3.4 Days Difference Basis point % premium/discount Annualized % forward forward ($/¥) spread per period premium or discount 30 -0.00008895 -0.8895 -0.9820% -11.7845% 90 -0.00028441 -2.8441 -3.1401% -12.5604% 180 -0.00056825 -5.6825 -6.2740% -12.5479% 360 -0.00113707 -11.3707 -12.5541% -12.5541%3.5 1984 DM1.80/$ or $0.56/DM 1987 DM2.00/$ or $0.50/DM 1992 DM1.50/$ or $0.67/DM 1997 DM1.80/$ or $0.56/DM a. 1984-87 The dollar appreciated 11.1%; ((DM2.0/$)-(DM1.8/$)/(DM1.8/$)=+0.111 1987-92 The dollar depreciated 25%; ((DM1.5/$)-(DM2.0/$)/(DM2.0/$)=-0.25 1992-97 The dollar appreciated 25%; ((DM1.8/$)-(DM1.5/$)/(DM1.5/$)=+0.20 b. 1984-87 The mark depreciated 10.7%; ($0.50/DM)/($0.56/DM) - 1= -0.107 1987-92 The mark appreciated 34.0%; ($0.67/DM)/($0.50/DM) - 1= +0.340 1992-97 The mark depreciated 16.4%; ($0.56/DM)/($0.67/DM) - 1 = -0.164 7
  8. 8. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd edition3.6 a. FM5,000,000 / (FM4.0200/$) = $1,243,781. Tokyo’s bid price for FM is their ask price for dollars. So, FM4.0200/$ is equivalent to $0.2488/FM. b. FM20,000,000 / (FM3.9690/$) = $5,039,053 FM3.9690/$ is equivalent to $0.2520/FM Payment is made on the second business day after the three-month expiration date.3.7 You initially receive P0$ = P0¥/S0¥/$ = (¥104,000,000)/(¥1.04/$) = $1 million. When you buy back the yen, you must pay P1$ = P1¥/S1¥/$ = (¥104,000,000)/(¥1.00/$) = $1.04 million. Your dollar loss is $40,000.3.8 When buying one currency, you are simultaneously selling another. Hence, a bid price for pesetas is an ask price for dollars. The peseta quotes yield S Pts/$ = 1/S$/Pts = 1/ ($0.007634/Pts) = Pts130.99/$ and SPts/$ = 1/($0.007643/Pts) = Pts130.84/$, so quotes for the dollar (in the denominator) are Pts130.84/$ BID and Pts130.99/$ ASK.3.9 a. (1+s¥/$) = 0.90 = 1/(1+s$/¥)⇔s$/¥ = (1/0.90)-1 = +0.111, or an 11.1% appreciation. b. (1+sRbl/$) = 11 = 1/(1+sRbl/¥)⇔s$/Rbl = (1/11)-1 = -0.909, or a 90.9% depreciation.3.10 The 90-day dollar forward price is 33 basis points below the spot price: F 1SFr/$-S0SFr/$ = (SFr0.7432/$-SFr0.7465/$) = -SFr0.0033/$. The percentage dollar forward discount is (F1SFr/$-S0SFr/$)/S0SFr/$ = (SFr0.7432/$–SFr0.7465/$)/(SFr0.7465/$) = -0.442% per 90 days. This is (-0.442%)*4 = -1.768% on an annualized basis.3.11 Banks make a profit on the bid-ask spread. A bank quoting $0.5841/DM BID and $0.5852/DM ASK is buying marks (in the denominator) at $0.5841/DM and selling marks at $0.5852/DM ASK. A bank quoting $0.5852/DM BID and $0.5841/DM ASK is selling dollars (in the numerator) at $0.5852/DM BID and buying dollars at $0.5841/DM ASK.3.12 FF at a forward discount 30 day: ($0.18519/FF-$0.18536/FF)/$0.18536/FF = -0.092% 90 day: ($0.18500/FF-$0.18536/FF)/$0.18536/FF = -0.194% 180 day: ($0.18498/FF-$0.18536/FF)/$0.18536/FF = -0.205%3.13 a. S1$/¥ = S0$/¥ (1+ s$/¥) = ($0.0100/¥)(1.2586) = ($0.012586/¥) b. (1+ s¥/$) = S1¥/$/S0¥/$ = (1/S1$/¥) / (1/S0$/¥) = 1 / (S1$/¥/S0$/¥) = 1 / (1+ s$/¥) = 1 / (1.2586) = 0.7945, so s$/¥ = 0.7945 - 1 = -.2055, or = -20.55%3.14 a. The sale is invoiced in Belgian francs, so the expected future cash flow is: +BF40,000,000 8
  9. 9. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems b. The contractual payment is a positive cash flow in Belgian francs, so Dow is positively exposed to the value of the Belgian franc. ∆V$/BF Dow’s exposure ∆V$/BF c. The expected cash flow in dollars is E[CF 1$] = E[CF1BF] E[S1$/BF] = (BF40,000,000) ($0.025/BF) = $1,000,000. Actual dollar cash flow is CF1$ = CF1BFS1$/BF = (BF40,000,000)($0.04/BF) = $1,600,000. This leaves an unexpected gain of $600,000, or 60% of the expected value. As the value of the BF rises by 60% from $0.025/BF to $0.040/BF, so too does the value of this Belgian franc cash inflow. d. Sell 40 million Belgian francs forward and buy $1,000,000 at the forward price of F1$/BF = $0.025/BF, or F1BF/$ = BF40/$. +$1,000,000 −BF40,000,000 The Belgian franc is being sold forward, so Dow’s exposure to the value of the Belgian franc in this forward contract is negative. The negative exposure on the forward contract offsets the positive exposure on the underlying position. The net result is no exposure to the Belgian franc exchange rate. $/BF ∆V Forward exposure $/BF ∆V3.15 (Ftd/f-S0d/f)/S0d/f = [(1/Ftf/d)-(1/S0f/d)]/(1/S0f/d) = [(S0f/d/Ftf/d)-(S0f/d/S0f/d)]/(S0f/d/S0f/d) = [(S0f/d /Ftf/d) - 1] = (S0f/d - Ftf/d) / Ftf/d. 9
  10. 10. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd editionChapter 4 The International Parity ConditionsAnswers to Conceptual Questions4.1 What is the law of one price? What does it say about asset prices? The law of one price states that identical assets must have the same price wherever they are bought or sold. The law of one price is enforced by arbitrage activity between identical assets. In a perfect market without transaction costs, the law of one price must hold for there to be no arbitrage opportunities.4.2 Describe riskless arbitrage. Riskless arbitrage is a profitable position obtained with no net investment and no risk. Riskless arbitrage will drive the prices of identical assets into equilibrium and enforce the law of one price.4.3 What is the difference between locational, triangular, and covered interest arbitrage? Locational arbitrage is conducted between two physical locations, such as between currency prices at two different banks (such that ASf/d BSd/f ≠ 1 for banks A and B and currencies d and f). Triangular arbitrage is conducted across three different cross exchange rates (such that Sd/e Se/f Sf/d ≠ 1 for currencies d, e, and f). Covered interest arbitrage takes advantage of a disequilibrium in the interest rate parity condition [(F td/ f) / (S0d/ f)] ≠ (1+id) / (1+i f)]t between currency and Eurocurrency markets.4.4 What is relative purchasing power parity? Relative purchasing power parity is a form of the law of one price in which the expected change in the spot rate is influenced by inflation differentials according to E[S td/f]/S0d/f = [(1+id) / (1+if)]t.4.5 How would you arrive at an estimate of a future spot exchange rate between two currencies? In theory, any of the international parity conditions could be used: E[S td/f] / S0d/f = [(1+id) / (1+if)]t = [(1+pd) / (1+pf)]t = Ftd/f / S0d/f. In practice, forward exchange rates are used to predict future spot rates.4.6 What does the international Fisher relation say about interest rate and inflation differentials? If the law of one price holds and real interest rates are constant across currencies, nominal interest rates reflect inflation differentials according to [(1+id) / (1+if)]t = [(1+pd) / (1+pf)]t. 10
  11. 11. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and ProblemsProblem Solutions4.1 a. S¥DM = S¥/$S$/DM = (¥200/$)($0.50/DM) = ¥100/DM b. S¥DM = S¥/$/SDM/$ =(¥100/$)/(DM1.60/$) = ¥62.5/DM.4.2 SDM/$ S$/¥ S¥/DM = 1.0326 > 1. Triangular arbitrage would yield a profit of 3.26 percent of the starting amount. For triangular arbitrage to be profitable, transactions costs on a “round turn” cannot be more than this amount.4.3 The forward price is at a 9 basis point discount over six months, or 18 bps on an annualized basis. The six-month percentage discount is (F 1£/$/S0£/$)-1 = (£0.6352/$)/ (£0.6361/$)-1 = 0.9986-1 = 0.14%, or 0.28% on an annualized basis. Because Ft£/$ = E[St£/$] according to forward parity (the unbiased forward expectations hypothesis), the spot rate is expected to depreciate by 0.14% over the next six months.4.4 a. The percentage bid-ask spread depends on which currency is in the denominator. Tokyo quote for the peso: (¥28.7715/Ps–¥28.7356/Ps)/(¥28.7356/Ps) = 0.125% Mexico City quote for yen: (Ps0.03420/¥–Ps0.03416/¥)/(Ps0.03416/¥) = 0.117% b. The Mexican bank’s yen quote can be converted into a peso quote as follows: S¥/Ps = 1/(Ps0.03416/¥) = ¥29.2740/Ps bid on the yen and ask on the peso. S¥/Ps = 1/(Ps0.03420/¥) = ¥29.2398/Ps ask on the yen and bid on the peso. So Ps0.03416/¥ BID and Ps0.03420/¥ ASK on the yen is equivalent to ¥29.240/Ps BID and ¥29.274/Ps ASK on the peso. The winning strategy is to buy pesos (and sell yen) from the Tokyo bank at the ¥28.7715/Ps ask price and sell pesos (and buy yen) to the Mexican bank at the ¥29.240/Ps bid price. Buying pesos in Tokyo yields (¥1,000,000)/(¥28.7715/Ps) = Ps34,757. Selling pesos in Mexico City yields (Ps34,757)(¥29.2398/Ps) = ¥1,016,287. Your arbitrage profit is ¥16,287.4.5 In this circumstance, the international parity conditions do not have anything to say about the U.K. inflation rate. Nominal interest rates will adjust to expected inflation according to the Fisher relation; (1+i) = (1+p)(1+r).4.6 a. From interest rate parity, (¥210/$)/(¥190/$) = (1+i¥)/(1.15) ⇒ i¥ = 27.11%. b. Because the forward rate of ¥210/$ is greater than the spot rate of ¥190/$, the dollar is at a forward premium. If forward rates are unbiased predictors of future spot rates, the dollar is likely to appreciate against the yen by (¥210/$)/(¥190/$)-1 = 10.526%.4.7 a. In this problem, we know the spot and forward rates and U.S. inflation. The real and nominal interest rates are not needed: F1£/$/S0£/$ = (£1.20/$)/(£1.25/$) = 0.96 = E(1+p$)/E(1+p£) = (1.05)/E(1+p£) => E(p£) = (1.05/0.96)-1 = 9.375% b. From the Fisher equation: i£ = (1+p£)(1+r£)-1 = (1.09375)(1.02)-1 = 11.56%.4.8 a. E[P1D] = P0D(1+pD) = D100(1.10) = D110 E[P1F] = P0F(1+pF) = F1(1.21) = F1.21 E[S1D/F] = E[P1D] / E[P1F] = D110 / F1.21 = D90.91/F. 11
  12. 12. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd edition b. E[P2D] = P0D(1+pD)2 = D100(1.10)2 = D121 E[P2F] = P0F(1+pF)2 = F1(1.21)2 = F1.4641 E[S2D/F] = E[P2D]/E[P2F] = D121/F1.4641 = S0D/F[(1+pD)/(1+pF)]2 = (D100/F)(1.10/1.21)2 = D82.64/F.4.9 a. A 7% annualized rate with quarterly compounding is equivalent to 7%/4 = 1.75% per quarter. From interest rate parity, the 3-month Finnish markka interest rate is FFM/$/SFM/$ = (FM3.9888/$)/(FM4.0200/$) = (1+iFM)/(1+i$) = (1+iFM)/(1+0.0175) => iFM = 0.009603, or 0.9603% per three months. Annualized, this is equivalent to (0.9603%)*4 = 3.8412% per year with quarterly compounding. Alternatively, the annual percentage rate is (1.009603)4-1 = 0.03897, or 3.897% per year. b. $10,000,000 invested at the three-month U.S. rate yields $10,175,000. Changed into FM at the forward rate, this is worth ($10,175,000)(FM3.9888/$) = FM40,586,040. You can finance your $10,000,000 by borrowing FM40,200,000. Your obligation on this contract will be (FM40,200,000)(1.009603) ≈ FM40,586,040 which is exactly offset by the proceeds from your forward contract.4.10 a. FtBt/$/S0Bt/$ = (1 + iBt)t/(1 + i$)t = (Bt 25.64/$)/(Bt 24.96/$) = (1 + iBt)/(1.06125) ⇒ 1.02724 = (1 + iBt)/1.06125 ⇒ iBt = 9.02% b. F1Bt/$/S0Bt/$ = (Bt25.64/$)/(Bt24.96/$) = 1.027 < (1+i Bt)/(1+i$) = (1.1)/(1.06125) = 1.037. So, borrow at i$ and lend at iBt. +Bt24,960,000 Convert to baht at the spot exchange rate −$1,000,000 Invest at the 10% baht interest rate +Bt27,456,000 −Bt24,960,000 Borrow at the 6.125% dollar interest rate +$1,000,000 −$1,061,250 Cover baht forward +$1,070,827 −Bt27,456,000 This leaves a net gain at time 1 of $1,070,827 - $1,061,250 = $9,577, which is worth $9,577/1.06125 = $9,024 in present value. 12
  13. 13. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems4.11 F1AA/$/S0AA/$ = (AA22/$)/(AA20/$) = 1.1 < 1.1132 = (1.18)/(1.06) = (1+ i AA)/(1+i$). The ratio of interest rates is too high and must fall, so borrow at the relatively low dollar rate and invest at the relatively high austral rate. The forward premium is too low and must rise, so buy australs (and sell dollars) at the relatively low dollar forward rate and sell dollars (and buy australs) at the relatively high dollar spot rate. • Borrow $100,000 at the dollar interest rate so that $106,000 is due in six months. • Buy AA2,000,000 at the relatively high spot price. • Invest this in Argentina at 18% to yield AA2,360,000 at the end of six months. • Cover by selling AA2,360,000 at the AA22/$ forward rate to yield $107,273. This leaves a profit of $107,273-$106,000 = $1, The Singapore dollar is at a forward premium; F1$/S$/S0$/S$ = ($0.51/S$)/($0.50/S$) = 1.02, or 2% per year. This is less than is warranted by the difference in interest rates (1+i$)/(1+iS$) = (1.06)/(1.04) = 1.019231, so F1$/S$/S0$/S$ > (1+i$)/(1+iS$). The forward/spot ratio is too high and must fall, so sell S$ (and buy dollars) at the relatively high S$ forward rate and buy S$ (and sell dollars) at the relatively low S$ spot rate. Conversely, the ratio of interest rates is too low and must rise, so borrow at the relatively low dollar interest rate and invest at the relatively high S$ rate. (Even though S$ interest rates are lower than dollar interest rates in nominal terms, S$ interest rates are high and dollar interest rates are low relative to the forward/spot ratio.) Suppose you borrow ($1,000,000)/(1+i$) = $1,060,000 at the i$ = 6.0% dollar interest rate. +$1,000,000 -$1,060,000 Convert to S$2,000,000 = ($1,000,000)/($0.50/S$) at S0$/S$ = $0.50/S$. +S$2,000,000 -$1,000,000 Invest S$2,000,000 at the Singapore interest rate of iS$ = 4.0%. +S$2,080,000 -S$2,000,000 Cover this S$ forward obligation by selling S$ in the forward market. 13
  14. 14. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd edition +$1,060,800 -S$2,080,000 The result is a dollar profit of $1,060,800-$1,060,000 = $800. These transactions are worth undertaking only if the costs of executing the four transactions is less than $800.4.13 a. You are receiving £100,000 in one year, so sell £100,000 forward and buy dollars. In one year, you will receive £100,000 from your album sale. You can then convert this amount into (£100,000)($1.20/£) = $1,200,000 through the forward contract. You have eliminated your exposure to the value of the pound. b. A money market hedge borrows in one currency, invests in another, and nets the transactions in the spot market. The result is the equivalent of a forward contract. The forward contract that you want to replicate is a forward sale of £100,000. This can be replicated as follows: Borrow (£100,000)/(1+i£) = £89,638 at the i£ = 11.56% pound sterling interest rate. +£89,638 -£100,000 Convert to (£89,638)($1.25/£) = $112,047 at S0$/£ = $1.25/£. +$112,047 -£89,638 Invest in dollars at the U.S. dollar rate of i$ = 9.82%. +$123,050 -$112,047 The net result is a forward contract to buy dollars with pounds. +£100,000 -$123,050 Note that this is on more favorable terms than the forward contract. Forward prices are not in equilibrium with the interest rate differential. In this situation, it is cheaper to hedge through the money markets than through the forward market. c. These markets are not in equilibrium. F1$/£/S0$/£ = ($1.20/£)/($1.25/£) = 0.96 < 14
  15. 15. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems =0.98440 = (1.0982)/(1.1156) = (1+i$)/(1+i£), so you should buy pounds at the relatively low forward price, sell pounds at the relatively high spot price, invest in dollars at the relatively high dollar interest rate, and borrow pounds at the relatively low pound interest rate.Appendix 4-A Continuous Time Finance4A.1 Total two-period return is [V2/V0]-1 = [(1+i1)(1+i2)]-1. Mean geometric return is iavg = [(1+i1)(1+i2)]1/2-1. Total wealth after two periods is the same as beginning wealth; $100(1+1)(1-0.5) = $100. Notice that the order of the rates of return does not matter. A loss of 50% followed by a gain of 100% leaves your initial value unchanged. For the pair of returns (100%,-50%), the average period return is iavg = [(1+1)(1-0.5)]1/2-1 = 0. With continuously compounded returns, periodic rates are given by ι1 = ln(1+i1) = ln(2) = +0.69315 and ι2 = ln(1+i2) = ln(0.5) = -0.69315. The (arithmetic) average return using continuously compounded rates is (ι1+ι2)/2 = (+0.69315-0.69315)/2 = 0. Either way, your ending value is the same as your beginning value. These methods are equivalent.4A.2 Inflation rates are pD = ln(1+pD) = ln(1.10) = 9.531% and pF = ln(1+pF) = ln(1.21) = 19.062% in continuously compounded returns. Expected price levels and spot rates are: E[P1D] = P0D e(0.09531) = (D100)(1.10) = D110 E[P2D] = P0D e(2)(0.09531) = (D100)(1.21) = D121 E[P1F] = P0F e(0.19062) = (F1)(1.21) = F1.21 E[P2F] = P0F e(2)(0.19062) = (F1)(1.4641) = F1.4641 E[S1D/F] = E[P1D] / E[P1F] = D110 / F1.21 = D90.91/F E[S2D/F] = E[P2D] / E[P2F] = D121 / F1.4641 = D82.64/FChapter 5 The Nature of Foreign Exchange RiskAnswers to Conceptual Questions5.1 What is the difference between currency risk and currency risk exposure? Risk exists whenever actual outcomes can deviate from expected outcomes. Currency risk is the risk that currency values will change unexpectedly. Exposure to currency risk refers to change in the value of an asset (such as an individual investment portfolio or the stock price of a multinational corporation) with unexpected changes in currency values.5.2 What are monetary assets and liabilities? What are nonmonetary assets and liabilities? Monetary assets and liabilities have contractual payoffs. Nonmonetary assets (e.g., plant and equipment) and liabilities have noncontractual payoffs.5.3 What are the two components of economic exposure to currency risk? Monetary (contractual) assets and liabilities can be exposed to currency risk. This is called “transaction exposure.” The exposure of the firm’s real (noncontractual) or operating assets is called “operating exposure.” 15
  16. 16. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd edition5.4 Under what conditions is accounting exposure to currency risk important to shareholders? Accounting (or translation) exposure is the exposure of financial statements to currency risk. Accounting exposure is important to shareholders if it is related to economic exposure (that is, related to expected future cash flows). It is also important if managers change their actions (and thereby firm cash flow) in response to accounting exposure. 16
  17. 17. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems5.5 Will an appreciation of the domestic currency help or hurt a domestic exporter? An importer? A nominal appreciation in the domestic currency is likely to have little effect on domestic importers and exporters. A real appreciation of the domestic currency can hurt domestic exporters by raising the price of domestic goods relative to foreign goods. Domestic importers will see their purchasing power increase relative to foreign competitors, and so are likely to be helped by a real appreciation of the domestic currency.5.6 What does the efficient market hypothesis say about market prices? In an informationally efficient market, assets are correctly priced. It is not possible to consistently earn abnormal returns (beyond that obtainable by chance) on assets of similar risk. The efficient market hypothesis says that spot and forward exchange rates should be correctly priced, so that it is not possible to consistently make abnormal returns by speculating in foreign exchange.5.7 What are real (as opposed to nominal) changes in currency values? Real exchange rate changes reflect changes in currencies’ relative purchasing power.5.8 Are real exchange rates in equilibrium at all times? Real exchange rates show large and persistent deviations from purchasing power parity. These deviations can last for several years.5.9 What is the effect of a real appreciation of the domestic currency on the purchasing power of domestic residents? A real appreciation of the domestic currency increases the wealth and purchasing power of domestic residents relative to foreign residents. It can also hurt the economy by raising the price of domestic goods relative to foreign goods.5.10 Describe the behavior of nominal exchange rates. For daily measurement intervals, both nominal and real exchange rate changes are random with a nearly equal probability of rising or falling. As the forecast horizon is lengthened, the correlation between interest and inflation differentials and nominal spot rate changes rises. Eventually, the international parity conditions exert themselves and the forward rate begins to dominate the current spot rate as a predictor of future nominal exchange rates. Finally, exchange rate volatility is not constant. Instead, volatility comes in waves.5.11 Describe the behavior of real exchange rates. Although real exchange rates tend to revert to their long run average, in the short run there can be substantial deviations from purchasing power parity and from the long run average.5.12 What methods can be used to forecast future spot rates of exchange? Market-based forecasts are obtained from forward exchange rates or from interest rate parity when forward prices are unavailable. These forward predictions can be slightly improved by adjusting them for persistent deviations from forward parity or from interest rate parity. Forecasts can also be based on econometric models. Model-based forecasts 17
  18. 18. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd edition can be generated from technical analysis (analyzing patterns in exchange rates) or from fundamental analysis (from a larger set of economic relationships).Problem Solutions5.1 a. E[P1F] = P0F(1+pF) = 1.21 E[P1D] = P0D(1+pD) = 1.10 E[S1D/F] = (S0D/F)(1+pD)/(1+pF) = (D110/F)(1.10/1.21) ≈ D90.91/F. b. Because nominal exchange rates should adjust to reflect changes in relative purchasing power, the expected real exchange rate is 100% of the beginning rate: E[X1D/F] = (E[S1D/F]/S0D/F)((1+pF)/(1+pD)) = ((D90.91/F)/(D100/F))(1.21/1.10) = 1.00, or 100%. c. E[P2F]) = P0F(1+pF)2 = F1.4641 E[P2D]) = P0D(1+pD)2 = D121 E[P2F]) = P0F(1+pF)2 = F1.4641 E[P2D]) = P0D(1+pD)2 = D121 E[S2D/F] = S0D/F((1+pD)/(1+pF))2 = (D100/F)(1.10/1.21)2 ≈ D82.64/F The real exchange rate is not expected to change: E[X2D/F] = (E[S2D/F]/E[S0D/F]) [(1+pF)/(1+pD)]2 = ((D82.64/F)(D100/F)) / (1.21/1.10)2 = 1.00, or 100%.5.2 a. s¥/DM = (S0¥/DM)/(S-1¥/DM)-1 = (¥155/DM)/(¥160/DM) -1 = -3.125%. b. From relative purchasing power parity, the spot rate should have been: E[S0¥/DM] = (S-1¥/DM) [(1+p¥)/(1+pDM)] = (¥160/DM) [(1.02)/(1.03)] = ¥158.45. c. As a difference from the expectation, the real change in the spot rate is: x¥/DM = (Actual-Expected)/(Expected) = (S0¥/DM -E[S0¥/DM])/E[S0¥/DM]) = (¥155/DM-¥158.45/DM)/¥158.45/DM = -2.18%. Alternatively, from equation (5.2), change in the real exchange rate is equal to: x¥/DM = ((S0¥/DM)/(S-1¥/DM)) ((1+pDM)/(1+p¥)) - 1 = ((¥155/DM)/(¥160/DM)) ((1.03)/(1.02)) - 1 = -2.18%. d. The deutsche mark depreciated by 2.18% in purchasing power. e. In real terms, the yen rose by xDM/¥ = ((S0DM/¥) / (S-1DM/¥)) ((1+p¥) / (1+pDM)) - 1 = ((S0¥/DM)-1 / (S-1¥/DM)-1) ((1+p¥) / (1+pDM)) - 1 = ((¥155/DM)-1 / (¥160/DM)-1 ) ((1.02)/(1.03)) - 1 = +2.23% = ((DM.0064516/¥)/(DM.00625000/¥)) ((1.02)/(1.03)) - 1 = +2.23%. Because the DM fell by 2.18% in real terms, the yen rose by 1/(1-0.0218) ≈ 2.23%.5.3 a. The percentage change in the dollar is s Fl/$ = (S1Fl/$/S0Fl/$)-1 = (Fl1.55/$)/(Fl1.60/$)-1 = -0.03125, or 3.125%. The price elasticity of demand is equal to -(∆Q/Q)/(∆P/P) = - (+10%)/(-3.125%) = 3.2. b. A 10% real depreciation in the export sales price (in this case, in the value of the dollar) would result in a 32% increase in export sales if the price elasticity does not change. Note that price elasticity is unlikely to be constant across such a wide range of price changes. 18
  19. 19. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems c. Dollar revenues would go up by 32% with a 32% increase in volume. Letting initial quantity sold and export price be Q and P, respectively, the guilder value of export sales would increase by (Rnew)/(Rold)-1 = ((1.32Q)(0.90P) / (Q)(P))-1 = +18.8%.5.4 σt2 = (0.0034) + (0.40)(0.05)2 + (0.20)(0.10)2 = 0.0064 ⇒ σt = 0.08, or 8%.PART III The Multinational Corporation’s Investment DecisionsChapter 6 Multinational Corporate StrategyAnswers to Conceptual Questions6.1 Why are product or factor market imperfections preconditions for foreign direct investment? Without some sort of product or factor market imperfection, the multinational corporation cannot enjoy an advantage over local firms. For the MNC to add value to the marketplace, it must bring something that local firms cannot. These competitive advantages are protected by market imperfections.6.2 Describe the elements of the eclectic paradigm. What does the eclectic paradigm attempt to do? The eclectic paradigm attempts to categorize the types of advantages enjoyed by the multinational corporation that give it a competitive advantage over local firms. The major categories are ownership-specific advantages, location-specific advantages, and market internalization advantages.6.3 What are ownership-specific advantages? Ownership-specific advantages are firm-specific property rights or intangible assets including patents, trademarks, organizational and marketing expertise, production technology and management, and the general organizational abilities of employees.6.4 What are location-specific advantages? Location-specific advantages arise from the MNC’s access to natural and man-made resources, high labor productivity and low real wage costs, transportation and communication systems, governmental investment incentives, and preferential tax treatments that are specific to a particular location or locale.6.5 What are market internalization advantages? Market internalization advantages allow the multinational corporation to internalize or exploit the failure of an arms-length market to efficiently accomplish a task. That is, contracting to accomplish a task is more effective or less expensive when conducted within the firm than through the markets.6.6 Describe the evolution of the MNC using product cycle theory. 19
  20. 20. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd edition According to product cycle theory, the firm’s products evolve through four stages: infancy, growth, maturity and decline. The MNC attempts to extend the lucrative mature stage by enhancing revenues through access to new product markets and reducing operating costs through access to new factor markets.6.7 Describe three broad modes of entry into international markets. Which of these modes requires the most resource commitment on the part of the MNC? Which has the greatest risks? Which offers the greatest growth potential? Export entry, contract-based entry, and investment entry. Investment entry requires the most resource commitment and exporting the least. The other side of the coin is that expected returns are often higher with investment-based entry than with exporting (so long as the project is positive-NPV and the MNC can pull it off). The advantages and disadvantages of contract-based entry depend on the particular contract.6.8 What are the relative advantages and disadvantages of foreign direct investment, acquisitions/mergers, and joint ventures? The resource commitments of FDI and foreign acquisition are generally higher than joint ventures. a. FDI allows the MNC relatively permanent access to foreign product and factor markets. The cost of a new investment in an unfamiliar business culture can be high, however. b. Acquisitions of stock or of assets may be difficult or impossible in countries with investment restrictions or ownership structures (such as the German banking system or the Japanese keiretsu industrial structure) that impede foreign acquisitions. Acquisition premiums can also be prohibitive. c. Joint ventures can allow the MNC to gain quick access to foreign markets and to new production technologies. It can also come with risks, such as the risk of losing control of the MNC’s intellectual property rights to the joint venture partner.6.9 Describe several defensive strategies that MNCs use during the mature stage of their products’ life cycles. Strategies to preserve and enhance revenues include preservation of market share, follow the leader, follow the customer, and lead the customer. Strategies to reduce operating costs include seeking low-cost raw materials and labor, economies of scale, economies of vertical integration, reduction of operating inefficiencies (process efficiency seekers), knowledge seekers, and political safety seekers. Financial considerations include the possibility of obtaining financial economies of scale, access to new capital markets, new sources of low-cost financing, indirect diversification benefits, financial strength and lower risk through international asset diversification, and reduced taxes through multinational operations.6.10 How can the MNC protect its competitive advantages in the international marketplace? The text lists several ways to protect competitive advantages such as the firm’s intellectual property rights. The most important of these protections lies in finding the right partner. Other ways that the MNC can protect itself include: i) limit the scope of the technology 20
  21. 21. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems transfer to include only non-essential parts of the production process, ii) limit the transferability of the technology by contract, iii) limit dependence on any single partner, iv) use only assets near the end of their product life cycle, v) use only assets with limited growth options, vi) trade one technology for another, vii) remove the threat by acquiring the stock or assets of the foreign partner.Problem Solutions6.1 Rather than make up an entry strategy, let’s look at how Motorola has entered Southeast Asia. In the 1960s, Motorola established sales agencies in Japan and Hong Kong as its initial entry mode. In the early 1980s, Motorola decided that it needed direct investment in the region in order to diversify its design and manufacturing capabilities. Development costs are high in the semiconductor industry and economies of scale on a successful product can be substantial. For this reason, Motorola and other semiconductor manufacturers have favored the international joint venture as a way to enter new markets and reduce the costs and risks of product innovation. Here is a partial list of Motorola’s international joint ventures: • Beginning in 1987, Motorola has had a joint venture with Toshiba to manufacture semiconductors. Joint ventures help Motorola to keep research and development costs down while keeping an eye on their Japanese competitors. • In 1990, Motorola built a design and manufacturing facility in Hong Kong as a platform to service the rest of Southeast Asia. • Since late 1996, Motorola has manufactured Mac clones in a joint venture with China’s state-owned Nanjing Power Computing of China based on its Power PC chip. • Motorola has joined a strategic alliance called “Iridium” with Globalstar, Loral, and Qualcomm to place satellites in very low orbits around the earth. These low-orbit satellites will provide hand-held mobile telephone service around the globe. Cellular communication is particularly important to countries such as China without a network of phone lines in place. Motorola currently derives more than 50% of its sales from outside the United States.Chapter 7 Cross-Border Capital BudgetingAnswers to Conceptual Questions7.1 Describe the two recipes for discounting foreign currency cash flows. Under what conditions are these recipes equivalent? Recipe #1: Discount foreign currency cash flows at a foreign currency discount rate. Recipe #2: Discount domestic currency cash flows at a domestic currency discount rate. These two recipes are equivalent if the international parity conditions hold and there are no market frictions such as repatriation restrictions. These recipes can give different values if PPP does not hold or if there are repatriation restrictions. 21
  22. 22. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd edition7.2 Discuss each cell in Figure 7.4. What should (or shouldn’t) a firm do when faced with a foreign project that fits the description in each cell? Top left: Both NPVs are negative so reject the foreign project. Top right: NPVd>0 but NPVf<0; if the firm wants to speculate on foreign exchange rates, there must be better alternatives than the proposed project for taking a speculative position. Bottom left: NPVd<0 but NPVf>0; anticipated changes in exchange rates are likely to hurt the firm. Try financing the project in the local currency, hedging forward (with forwards or futures), or swapping into foreign currency debt. Bottom right: There are two possibilities here. If NPVd > NPVf > 0, then changes in exchange rates are expected to help the parent. The home office may choose to leave the foreign currency cash flows unhedged, although this captures the higher expected return (NPVd > NPVf) but also exposes the firm to currency risk. If 0 < NPV d < NPVf, then the parent can capture a higher expected return (NPV f > NPVd) and lower currency risk by hedging its expected future foreign currency cash flows and locking in the relatively high local-currency value of the project.7.3 Why is it important to separately identify the value of any side effects that accompany foreign investment projects? Separately identifying the value of a project from the value of any side effects (such as blocked funds, subsidized financing, or tax holidays) allows the firm to negotiate with host governments and other parties on a more informed basis.Problem SolutionsCross-border capital budgeting when the international parity conditions hold.7.1 a. Note that relative purchasing power parity holds. (1+i$)/(1+iRen) = (1.15)/( 1.11745) ≈ (1+p$)/(1+pRen) = (1.06)/(1.03) ≈ 1.0291. Discounting renminbi cash flows at the renminbi discount rate yields NPVRen = -Ren600m+Ren200m/1.11745+Ren500m/(1.11745)2+Ren300m/(1.11745)3 = Ren194.39 million or NPV$ = (Ren194.39m)($0.5526/Ren) = $107.42 million at the spot exchange rate. b. Relative purchasing power parity states that the spot rate should change according to E[St$/Ren]/E[S0$/Ren] = [(1+E[p$])/(1+E[pRen])]t = (1.06/1.03)t = (1.029)t. That is, renminbi should appreciate by approximately 2.9% per year relative to the dollar because of lower Chinese inflation. Expected future spot rates of exchange are then E[S1$/Ren] = ($0.5526)[(1.06)/(1.03)]1 = $0.5687/Ren E[S2$/Ren] = ($0.5526)[(1.06)/(1.03)]2 = $0.5853/Ren E[S3$/Ren] = ($0.5526)[(1.06)/(1.03)]3 = $0.6023/Ren Based on these spot exchange rates, expected dollar cash flows are: 22
  23. 23. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems E[CF0$] = (Ren600)($0.5526/Ren) = $331.56 E[CF1$] = (Ren200)($0.5687/Ren) = $113.74 E[CF2$] = (Ren500)($0.5853/Ren) = $292.63 E[CF3$] = (Ren300)($0.6024/Ren) = $180.69 The project should be accepted because NPV$ = -$331.56m+$113.74m/(1.15)+$292.63m/(1.15)2+$180.69m/(1.15)3 = $107.42 million > $07.2 a. Expected future cash flows in euros are as follows: Investment cash flows 0 1 2 Land -100000 121000 grows at 10% inflation rate tax on capital gain -8400 Plant -50000 25000 market value at t=2 tax on capital gain -10000 NWC -50000 60500 grows at 10% inflation rate tax on capital gain -4200 Operating cash flows 0 1 2 Rev (Price=100, Q=5,000) 550000 605000 grows at 10% inflation rate Variable cost (20%) -110000 -121000 FC (20,000 at t=0) -22000 -24200 grows at 10% inflation rate Depreciation -25000 -25000 Earnings before tax 393000 434800 Tax (at 40%) -157200 -173920 Net income 235800 260880 Net cash flow (Euros) 260800 285880 CF = NI + Depreciation Sum of investment/disinvestment and operating cash flows Total net CFs -200000 260800 469780 Euro NPV at i = 20% 343569.4 b. If the international parity conditions hold, then 20% interest rates in both the foreign and domestic currencies imply that forward (and expected future spot) prices will equal the current spot rate of $10/Euro. So, Sum of investment/disinvestment and operating cash flows Expected dollar CFs -2000000 2608000 4697800 NPV at i$ = 20% $3,435,6947.3 a. iW = (1+pW)(1+rW) - 1 = (1.50)(1.10)-1 = 65% iL = (1+pL)(1+rL) - 1 = (1.00)(1.10)-1 = 10% b. E[S1W/L] = (S0W/L) [(1+pW) / (1+pL)]t = (W100/L) [(1.50) / (1.00)] = W150/L E[S2W/L] = (S0W/L) [(1+pW) / (1+pL)]t = (W100/L) [(1.50) / (1.00)]2 = W225/L 23
  24. 24. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd edition c. All cash flows in work-units: Investment cash flows 0 1 2 Land -200,000 450,000 grows at 50% inflation rate tax on capital gain -125,000 Plant -200,000 0 market value at t=2 tax on capital gain 0 Operating cash flows 0 1 2 Rev (P0W=W200, Q=2,000) 600,000 900,000 grows at 50% inflation rate Variable cost (20%) -120,000 -180,000 Fixed cost (W30,000 at t=0) -45,000 -67,500 grows at 50% inflation rate Depreciation -100,000 -100,000 Earnings before tax 335,000 552,500 Tax (at 50%) -167,500 -276,250 Net income 167,500 276,250 Net operating CFW 267,500 376,250 CF = NI + Depreciation Sum of investment/disinvestment and operating cash flows Total NCFW -400,000 267,500 701,250 NPVW at 65% W19,697 NPVL = NPVW / S0W/L = L197 d. E[CFt ] = E[CFt ] / E[St ] ⇒ E[CF0L] = (-W400,000) / (W100/L) = -L4,000 L W W/L E[CF1L] = (W267,500) / (W150/L) = L1,783 E[CF2L] = (W701,250) / (W225/L) = L3,117 ⇒ NPVL = -L4,000 + (L1,783) / (1.10) + (L3,117) / (1.1)2 = L197 This is the same as in part c because the international parity conditions hold.7.4 a. t=1 Bt3.4m Bt3.4m Bt3.4m Bt6,913,840  −Bt4m t=2 t=3 t=4 t=5 iBt = 20% Initial outlay = (Bt4m) After-tax cash flows over t=2,…,5 =(Bt100m-Bt90m-Bt5m)(1-0.40)+(Bt1m*.40)=Bt3,400,000 Terminal CF= (Bt4m*(1.10)4) - {[(Bt4m*(1.10)4) - 0]*.4} = Bt3,513,840 NPV0Bt = Bt5,413,548 b. (1+iBt)=(1+rBt)(1+pBt) ⇒ rBt = (1.20/1.10)-1=0.0909091 ⇒ r¥ = 9.09091% i¥ = (1.0909091)(1.05) - 1 = 0.1454545, or 14.54545% c. E(S1Bt/¥) = (Bt0.25/¥)(1.20/1.1454545) = Bt.2619048/¥ E(S2Bt/¥) = (Bt0.25/¥)(1.20/1.1454545)2 = Bt.2743764/¥ E(S3Bt/¥) = (Bt0.25/¥)(1.20/1.1454545)3 = Bt.2874420/¥ E(S4Bt/¥) = (Bt0.25/¥)(1.20/1.1454545)4 = Bt.3011297/¥ E(S5Bt/¥) = (Bt0.25/¥)(1.20/1.1454545)5 = Bt.3154692/¥ 24
  25. 25. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems d. Recipe #1: NPV¥ = Bt5,413,548/(Bt0.25/¥) = ¥21,654,192 Recipe #2: NPV0¥ = ¥21,654,192 at i¥ = 14.54545% t=1 ¥12,391,736 ¥11,828,475 ¥11,290,817 ¥21,916,055                − ¥15,272,727 t=2 t=3 t=4 t=5 The answers are the same because the international parity conditions hold.Cross-border capital budgeting when international parity conditions do not hold.7.5 a. Discount in renminbi. NPVRen = [Σt E[CFtRen] / (1+iRen)t ] = [-Ren600+Ren200/(1.1175)+Ren500/(1.1175)2+Ren300/(1.1175)3 ] = Ren194.39 ⇒ NPV = (S0$/Ren) (NPVRen) = ($0.5526/Ren)(Ren194.39) = $107.42 $ Discount in dollars. NPV$ = Σt {E[St$/Ren]E[CFtRen] / (1+i$)t } = [(-Ren600)($0.5526/Ren) + (Ren200)($0.5801/Ren)/(1.15) + (Ren500)($0.6089/Ren)/(1.15)2 + (Ren300)($0.6392/Ren)/(1.15)3 ] = $125.61 > $107.42 While the project has a positive NPV regardless of the perspective, the project has more value from the parent’s perspective than from the project perspective. This is because the expected future value of the dollar (renminbi) is less (more) than under the equilibrium conditions. The parent company may choose to leave its cash flows from the project unhedged in the hopes of benefiting from the expected future spot exchange rates. This does expose the parent to currency risk. b. Discount in renminbi. NPVRen = [Σt E[CFtRen] / (1+iRen)t ] = [-Ren600 + Ren200/(1.1175) + Ren500/(1.1175)2+Ren300/(1.1175)3] = Ren194.39 ⇒ NPV$ = (S0$/Ren) (NPVRen) = ($0.5526/Ren)(Ren194.39) = $107.42 Discount in $: NPV$ = Σt {E[St$/Ren]E[CFtRen] / (1+i$)t } = [(-Ren600)($0.5526/Ren) + (Ren200)($0.5575/Ren)/(1.15) + (Ren500)($0.5625/Ren)/(1.15)2 + (Ren300)($0.5676/Ren)/(1.15)3 ] = $90.04 < $107.42 Although the project has a positive NPV from each perspective, the project has more value in the local currency than it does in dollars. The parent should hedge the renminbi cash flows either directly in the forward market, by borrowing a part of the project in renminbi, or by swapping dollar debt for renminbi debt to hedge its expected future renminbi cash flows from the project. 25
  26. 26. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd edition 26
  27. 27. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and ProblemsCross-border capital budgeting when there are investment or financial side effects.7.6 Expected future cash flows are not received until one year later, so +Ren200 +Ren500 +Ren300 1 yr 2 yrs 3 yrs 4 yrs -Ren600 NPVren = -Ren600m+Ren200m/(1.11745)2+Ren500m/(1.11745)3+Ren300m/(1.11745)4 = Ren110.90 million, or NPV = (Ren110.90)($0.5526/ren) = $61.28 million at the spot exchange rate. $7.7 The after-tax cost of debt is (5.06%)(1-0.4) = 3.036%. The after-tax annual savings in interest expense is (Ren600m)(0.0506-0.0403)(1-0.4) = Ren3.708 million. The present value of a three-year annuity of Ren3.708 million discounted at 3.036% is Ren10.48 million.7.8 NPVRen = Ren194.39 million without the side effect. The airport project reduces this value by Ren100 million, but the NPV is still positive. Accept the project even if the Chinese authorities are not willing to renegotiate.7.9 This is a cumulative risk in that, once expropriated, you will not receive any later cash flows from your investment. The probability of receiving the cash flow in year t is (0.9)t times the expected cash flow in problem 7.1. So, NPVren = -Ren600m + Ren200m(0.9)1/(1.11745) + Ren500m(0.9)2/(1.11745)2 + Ren300m(0.9)3/(1.11745)3 = Ren42.15 million or NPV$ = (Ren42.15)($0.5526/Ren) = $23.29 million at the spot exchange rate.7.10 Step 1: Calculate the value of blocked funds assuming they are not blocked. If blocked funds had been invested at the risky croc rate of 40% per year, they would have grown in value to Cr8,000(1.40) 3 + Cr13,819.5(1.40)2 + Cr19,573.5(1.40) ≈ Cr76,441. Discounted at the 40% rate, this would have been worth Cr19,898 in present value. This is equivalent to discounting blocked funds back to the beginning of the project at the 40% risky croc discount rate, so this is a zero-NPV investment at the 40% croc interest rate. Step 2: Calculate the opportunity cost of blocked funds. With blocked funds earning no interest, the accumulated balance of Cr41,393 has a present value of (Cr41,393) / (1.40)4 = Cr10,775 at the 40% required return. The opportunity cost of blocked funds is then Cr19,898-Cr10,775 = Cr9,123. Step 3: Calculate project value including the opportunity cost of blocked funds. Vproject with side effect = Vproject without side effect + Vside effect = -Cr137 - Cr9,123 = -Cr9,260. At the 40% (foregone) risky discount rate, the opportunity cost of blocked funds is higher than the Cr9,077 value in the text example. At the 40% risky rate, blocked funds make the Neverland project look even worse than when Hook’s treasure chest is riskless. 27
  28. 28. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd editionChapter 8 Taxes and Multinational Corporate StrategyAnswers to Conceptual Questions8.1 What is tax neutrality? Why is it important to the multinational corporation? Is tax neutrality an achievable objective? A neutral tax is one that does not interfere with the natural flow of capital toward its most productive use. Domestic tax neutrality is intended to ensure that incomes arising from operations (whether foreign or domestic) are taxed similarly by the domestic government. Foreign tax neutrality is intended to ensure that taxes imposed on the foreign operations of domestic companies are similar to those facing local competitors in the host countries.8.2 What is the difference between an implicit and an explicit tax? In what way do before- tax required returns react to changes in explicit taxes? Explicit taxes are taxes that are explicitly assessed on income of various forms. Examples include corporate and personal income taxes, dividend taxes, interest taxes, sales and property taxes, and so forth. Implicit taxes come in the form of higher pre-tax required returns in higher tax jurisdictions.8.3 How are foreign branches and foreign subsidiaries taxed in the United States? Income from foreign branches is taxed as it is earned. Income from a controlled foreign corporation (a subsidiary that is incorporated in a foreign country and more than 50% owned by a U.S. parent) is taxed only when funds are repatriated to the U.S. parent. Income from foreign corporations that are between 10% and 50% owned by a U.S. parent is called Subpart F income and is taxed as it is earned on a pro rata basis according to sales or gross profit.8.4 How has the U.S. Internal Revenue Code limited the ability of the multinational corporation to reduce taxes through multinational tax planning and management? There are two principal limitations on multinational tax planning: the overall foreign tax credit (FTC) limitation and the use of income baskets for active and passive income and other kinds of income. The overall FTC limitation is equal to total foreign-source income times the U.S. tax rate. Excess foreign tax credits may be carried two years back or five years forward. Income baskets limit the usefulness of excess FTCs, because FTCs from one income basket may not be used to reduce taxes in another income basket.8.5 Are taxes the most important consideration in global location decisions? If not, how should these decisions be made? Locations that are tax-advantaged usually come with disadvantages in other areas. For example, low explicit tax rates generally result in low pre-tax rates of return because investors’ demand for high after-tax rates imposes an implicit tax on income from low- tax jurisdictions. Governments also use low tax rates to overcome locational disadvantages such as a poor physical, legal or telecommunication infrastructure, an uneducated workforce, or high political risk. 28
  29. 29. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and ProblemsProblem Solutions8.1 India’s currency is the rupee (Rp). Thailand’s currency is the bhat (Bt). From equation (8.1), interest rates in India are iRp = (iBt)(1-tBt)/(1-tRp) = (10%)(1-0.30)/(1-0.65) = 20%.8.2 Parts a, b, and c follow: Part a. Part b. Part c. HK India HK India HK India a Dividend payout ratio 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% b Foreign dividend withholding tax rate 0% 20% 0% 20% 0% 20% c Foreign tax rate 18% 65% 18% 65% 18% 65% d Foreign income before tax 10000 10000 20000 0 0 20000 e Foreign income tax (d*c) 1800 6500 3600 0 0 13000 f After-tax foreign earnings (d-e) 8200 3500 16400 0 0 7000 g Declared as dividends (f*a) 8200 3500 16400 0 0 7000 h Foreign dividend withholding tax (g*b) 0 700 0 0 0 1400 i Total foreign tax (e+h) 1800 7200 3600 0 0 14400 j Dividend to U.S. parent (d-i) 8200 2800 16400 0 0 5600 k Gross foreign income before tax (d) 10000 10000 20000 0 0 20000 l Tentative U.S. income tax (k*35%) 3500 3500 7000 0 0 7000 mForeign tax credit (i) 1800 7200 3600 0 0 14400 n Net U.S. taxes payable [max(l-m,0)] 1700 0 3400 0 0 0 o Total taxes paid (i+n) 3500 7200 7000 0 0 14400 p Net amount to U.S. parent (k-o) 6500 2800 13000 0 0 5600 q Total taxes as separate subs (sum(o)) $10,700 $7,000 $14,400 Parent’s consolidated tax statement r Overall FTC limitation (sum(k)*35%) $7,000 $7,000 $7,000 s Total FTCs on a consolidated basis (sum(i)) $9,000 $3,600 $14,400 t Additional U.S. taxes due [max(0, r-s)] $0 $3,400 $0 u Excess tax credits [max(0,s-r)] $2,000 $0 $7,400 (carried back 2 years or forward 5 years)8.3 a. Low transfer price ($1/btl) High transfer price ($10/btl) P.R. U.S. Consolidated P.R. U.S. Consolidated Revenue 100,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 COGS 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 1,000,000 100,000 Taxable income 0 900,000 900,000 900,000 0 900,000 Taxes 0 315,000 315,000 45,000 0 45,000 Net income 0 585,000 585,000 855,000 0 855,000 Effective tax on consolidated revenues 31.5% 4.5% Effective tax on taxable income 35.0% 5.0% 29
  30. 30. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd edition 30
  31. 31. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems b. If produced in the U.S., Quack’s U.S. tax liability would be: (Revenue-Expenses)(tax rate) = ($1,000,000-$50,000)(0.35) = $332,500, or 33.25% of consolidated revenues. After-tax earnings are then $617,500. Based only on tax considerations, Quack will pay less in taxes and have more after-tax cash flow if it produces Metafour in Puerto Rico. This is true even if it uses the relatively unaggressive transfer price of $1/btl on sales to the U.S. parent corporation.Chapter 9 Country RiskAnswers to Conceptual Questions9.1 Define country risk? Define political risk? Define financial risk? Give an example of each different type of country risk. Country risk refers to the political and financial risks of conducting business in a particular foreign country. Political risk is the risk that a host government will unexpectedly change the rules of the game under which businesses operate, such as through an election outcome. Financial risk refers to unexpected events in a country’s financial, economic, or business life that impact financial prices, such as an oil price shock in an oil-producing country.9.2 What factors might contribute to political and to financial risk in a country according to the ICRG country risk rating system? Political Risk Services’ International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) rates countries on political, economic, and financial factors. Political risk factors include a country’s leadership, corruption, and political tensions. Economic risk factors include inflation, current account balance, and foreign trade collection experience. Financial risk factors include currency controls, expropriations, contract renegotiations, payment delays, and loan restructurings.9.3 What is the difference between a macro and a micro country risk? Give an example of each different type of country risk. Micro country risks are specific to an industry, company, or project within a host country, such as a ruling that a particular company is dumping its products (selling below cost) in another country. Macro country risks affect all foreign firms within a host country, such as an unexpected change in a host country’s tax rates.9.4 How is expropriation included in a discounted cash flow analysis of a proposed foreign investment? Does expropriation impact expected future cash flows? From a discounted cash flow perspective, is it likely to impact the discount rate on foreign investment? 31
  32. 32. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd edition Expropriation occurs when a government seizes foreign assets. This risk clearly affects expected cash flows. It can affect the discount rate when investors cannot diversify their investment portfolios against this risk; that is, when it is a systematic risk.9.5 What is protectionism and how can it impact the multinational corporation? Protectionism refers to protection of local industries through tariffs, quotas, and regulations in ways that discriminate against foreign businesses.9.6 What are blocked funds? How might they arise? Blocked funds are cash flows generated by a foreign project that cannot be immediately repatriated to the parent firm. They most commonly arise from capital flow restrictions imposed by the host government.9.7 What are intellectual property rights? How are they at risk when the multinational corporation has foreign operations? Intellectual property rights include patents, copyrights, and proprietary technologies and processes. Host governments sometimes protect local businesses at the expense of foreign firms. The multinational corporation must work to minimize the exposure of its intellectual property rights to theft or expropriation by foreign firms or governments.9.8 What is an investment agreement? What conditions might it include? An investment agreement specifies the rights and responsibilities of a host government and a corporation in the structure and operation of an investment project in the host country. The agreement should specify the investment and financial environments including taxes, concessions, obligations, and restrictions on the multinational corporation’s operations. It also should specify a jurisdiction for the arbitration of disputes.9.9 What constitutes an insurable risk? List several insurable political risks. Insurable risks have four elements: (a) The loss is identifiable in time, place, cause, and amount. (b) A large number of individuals or businesses are exposed to the risk, ideally in an independently and identically distributed manner. (c) The expected loss over the life of the contract is estimable, so that reasonable premiums can be set by the insurer. (d) The loss is outside the influence of the insured.9.10 What operational strategies does the multinational corporation have to protect itself against political risk? In addition to negotiating the environment (perhaps through an investment agreement), the MNC can (a) limit the scope of technology transfer to foreign affiliates, (b) limit dependence on a single partner, (c) enlist local partners to represent the firm in the local environment, (d) use more stringent investment criteria when appropriate, and (e) plan for disaster recovery. 32
  33. 33. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems9.11 Does country risk affect investors’ required return in emerging markets? Erb, Harvey, and Viskanta [“Political Risk, Financial Risk and Economic Risk,” Financial Analysts Journal 52, November/December, 1996] found that the low correlations of emerging markets tend to overcome the higher volatilities of these markets, resulting in lower systematic risks than on comparable assets in developed markets.9.12 Complete the following sentence: “Equity returns from a country with high country risk are likely to be _____ (more, less) volatile and have a _____ (higher, lower) beta than those from a country with low country risk.” Equity returns from a country with high country risk are likely to be more volatile and have a lower beta than those from a country with low country risk.Problem Solutions9.1 There is not always a clear distinction between political and financial risks. Indeed, financial risks often result from political decisions. In Russia’s case, the financial risks of investment in Russian have been acerbated by the inability of the Russian government to establish and enforce laws and regulations for the orderly conduct of business. Organized crime and corruption have contributed to poor political, economic, financial country risk ratings in Russia. Governments make a convenient scapegoats, and this hedge fund manager clearly holds the Russian government responsible for his losses.9.2 Although the most obvious form of expropriation occurs when a host government confiscates a company’s assets, in fact each type of political risk can be thought of as a form of expropriation. Host governments can appropriate foreign assets for themselves or for local companies through actions that differentially impair nonlocal firms, including protectionism, blocked funds, or theft or misappropriation of intellectual property rights.9.3 a. Total risk is conventionally measured by standard deviation of return. The foreign asset with a standard deviation of σi’ = 0.3 has greater total risk than the domestic asset with a standard deviation of σi = 0.2. b. The foreign asset also has greater systematic risk: βi’ = ρiW’ (σi’/σW) = (0.3)(0.3/0.1) = 0.9 > βi = ρiW (σi /σW) = (0.4)(0.2/0.1) = Although the answer to this question will be specific to the chosen country, country risks that turn up usually include factors from the ICRG political risk categories. These factors include political risk (leadership, government corruption, internal or external political tensions), economic risk (inflation, current account balance, or foreign trade collection experience), and financial risk (currency controls, expropriations, contract renegotiations, payment delays, loan restructurings or cancellations). 33
  34. 34. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd editionChapter 10 Real Options and Cross-Border InvestmentAnswers to Conceptual Questions10.1 What is a real option? A real option is an option on a real asset.10.2 In what ways can managers’ actions seem inconsistent with the “accept all positive-NPV projects” rule? Are these actions truly inconsistent with the NPV decision rule? The text discusses three apparent violations of the NPV rule: 1) use of inflated hurdle rates, 2) failure to abandon investments that are losing money, and 3) entry into new or emerging markets and technologies. Each of these apparent violations arises when the NPV decision rule is applied naively - without considering all of the opportunity costs of investing and without considering managerial flexibility in the face of high uncertainty and changing market conditions. The inconsistencies arise from a failure to take into account all of the opportunity costs of investing. Once all opportunity costs are included, managers’ actions are less likely to be inconsistent with the NPV rule.10.3 Are managers who do not appear to follow the NPV decision rule irrational? Managers must consider how they might respond to future events. Managers are not acting irrationally if, through attempting to value their flexibility in responding to an uncertain world, their actions appear to be inconsistent with the NPV decision rule. They are irrational (or at least near-sighted) if they apply the NPV decision rule in an inflexible way that does not take into account all of the opportunity costs of investing.10.4 Why is the timing option important in investment decisions? Investments must compete not only with other projects but with versions of themselves initiated at each future date.10.5 What is exogenous uncertainty? What is endogenous uncertainty? What difference does the form of uncertainty make to the timing of investment? Exogenous uncertainty is outside the control of the firm. Endogenous uncertainty exists when the act of investing reveals information about price or cost. Exogenous uncertainty creates an incentive to delay investment whereas endogenous uncertainty creates an incentive to speed up investment.10.6 In what ways are the investment and abandonment options similar? The abandonment option is the flip side of the investment option. Each entails an upfront investment that changes the stream of future cash flows.10.7 What is a switching option? What is hysteresis? In what way is hysteresis a form of switching option? A switching option is a sequence of alternating puts and calls. For example, hysteresis occurs when firms fail to enter apparently profitable markets and, once entered, persist in operating at a loss. Hysteresis is a combination of an option to invest and an option to abandon and as such is a form of switching option. 34
  35. 35. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems10.8 What are assets-in-place? What are growth options? Assets-in-place are those assets in which the firm has already invested. Growth options are the firm’s opportunities to lever its existing assets-in-place (including human assets and core competencies) into new products and markets.10.9 Why does the NPV decision rule have difficulty in valuing managerial flexibility? The biggest difficulty lies in identifying the appropriate discount rate on investment. The discount rate is difficult to determine because: a) options are always more volatile than the asset or assets on which they are based; b) the volatility of an option changes with change in the value(s) of the underlying asset(s); and c) returns on options are not normally distributed.10.10 What are the shortcomings of option pricing methods for valuing real assets? Difficulties include: a) identifying the underlying asset or assets; b) specifying the return- generating process of the underlying asset(s); and c) the fact that the values of real options are not directly observable in the marketplace.Problem Solutions10.1 a. A decision tree represents possible paths to future states of the world as branches on a tree. For Grolsch’s invest in Dubiety, the decision tree looks like: Invest today NPV0D = ? Invest at Pbeer = D75 Invest in one year NPV0D Pbeer=D75 = ? Invest at Pbeer = D25 NPV0D Pbeer= D25 = ? b. Equation (9.2) from the text must be modified to include fixed costs: ( P - V) Q - F INVEST TODAY: NPV0 = − I0 i NPV(invest today) = [((D50/btl-D10/btl)(1,000,000 btls) - D10,000,000)/0.10] - D200,000,000 = D100,000,000 ⇒ invest today? c. Equation (9.3) from the text must be modified to include fixed costs:  ( P - V) Q - F  WAIT ONE YEAR: NPV0 =   (1 + i) − I0  i  D NPVPbeer= 75 = [(((D75/btl-D10/btl)(1,000,000 btls)-D10,000,000)/0.10)/(1.10)]-D200,000,000 = D300,000,000 ⇒ invest NPVPbeer=D25 = [(((D25/btl-D10/btl)(1,000,000 btls)-D10,000,000)/0.10) / (1.10)]-D200,000,000 35
  36. 36. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd edition = -D154,545,455 < $0 ⇒ don’t invest NPV(wait one year) = [Prob(P1=D75)](NPVP1=D75)+[Prob(P1=D25)](NPVP1=D25) = (½) (D300,000,000) + (½)(D0) = +D150,000,000 > NPV(invest today) > D0 d. Option Value = Intrinsic Value + Time Value NPV(wait one year) = NPV(invest today) + Opportunity cost of investing today D 150,000,000 = D100,000,000 + D50,000,000 e. Wait one period before deciding to invest.10.2 a. Abandon today NPV0D = ? D Abandon at Pbeer = 35 Abandon in one year NPV0D Pbeer=D35 = ? Abandon at Pbeer = D15 NPV0D Pbeer= D15 = ? b. The problem states that the current price of beer is D15 in perpetuity. The statement “in perpetuity” clearly cannot hold because prices in one year are stated to be either D15 or D35 with equal probability. Let’s assume that the price is currently D 15 per bottle and will either remain at D15 or will rise to D35 by time 1. For simplicity, let’s also assume end-of-year beer prices and cash flows so that we don’t have to worry about the path of beer prices during the year. In this setting, the current price of D15/bottle is irrelevant to the abandonment decision. The expected future price of D25 does matter. (If beer prices throughout the first year either remain at D15 or rise at a constant rate to D35, then the expected price during the first year is not D25 but rather ½[D15+½(D15+D35)] = D20.) Note that if the project is abandoned today at a cost of D10,000,000, future profits (and cash flow) from the project will be foregone. Hence, there is a minus sign in front of operating cash flow in the NPV equations that follow. At the expected end-of-year price of ½ (D15/btl+D35/btl) = D25/btl, the NPV of the “abandon today” alternative is: NPV(abandon today) = -[((D25/btl-D20/btl)(1,000,000 btls)-D10,000,000)/0.10]-D10,000,000 = D40,000,000 > D0 ⇒ abandon today? c. If Grolsch management waits one year before making its abandonment decision, beer prices will be either D15 or D35 with certainty. NPVP1=D35 = -[(((D35/btl-D20/btl)(1,000,000 btls) -D10,000,000) /0.10)/(1.10)]-D10,000,000 = -D55,454,545 ⇒ don’t abandon if price rises to D35 36
  37. 37. Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems NPVP1=D15 = -[(((D15/btl-D20/btl)(1,000,000 btls) -D10,000,000) /0.10)/(1.10)]-D10,000,000 = D126,363,636 ⇒ abandon if price falls to D15 NPV(wait one year)=[Prob(P1=D35)](NPVP1=D35)+[Prob(P1=D15)](NPVP1=D15) = (½) (D126,363,636) + (½)($0) = +D63,181,818 > NPV(abandon today) > D0 d. Option Value = Intrinsic Value + Time Value NPV(wait one year) =NPV(abandon today)+Opportunity cost of abandoning today +D63,181,818 = +D40,000,000 + D 23,181,818 e. Wait one year before making the abandonment decision.10.3 Let’s assume that there are in total five breweries, so there are four additional brewery investments if we choose to construct an exploratory brewery. We already know from Problem 9.1 that investment in a single brewery today has value. The issue is whether to invest in all five breweries today or invest in a single exploratory brewery and then make a decision on the four additional breweries in one year after receiving information about the price of beer. a. Decision tree: Invest in all five breweries today NPV0D = D ? If NPV0D > D0, continue to invest Invest in first brewery If NPV0D < D0, don’t invest further b. At the expected end-of-year price of ½(D25/btl+D75/btl) = D50/btl, the NPV of a single brewery is: NPV(exploratory brewery) = [((D50/btl-D10/btl)(1,000,000 btls)-D10,000,000)/0.10] - D200,000,000 = D100,000,000 NPV(invest in all five breweries today) = (5) NPV(exploratory brewery) = D500,000,000 c. If Grolsch management waits one year before making its investment decision, beer prices will be either D25 or D75 with certainty in this problem. Of course, it won’t know this until it invests in the first brewery. NPVPbeer=D75 = [((D75/btl-D10/btl)(1,000,000 btls)-D10,000,000)/0.10]-D200,000,000 = D350,000,000 ⇒ invest in additional capacity If Pbeer=D75, investment in four additional breweries at time t=1 yields a net present 37
  38. 38. Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, 2nd edition value at time zero of (4)( D350,000,000/1.10) = D1,272,727,273. NPVPbeer=D25 = [((D25/btl-D10/btl)(1,000,000 btls)-D10,000,000)/0.10]-D200,000,000 = -D150,000,000 < $0 ⇒ don’t invest in additional capacity If Pbeer=D25, do not invest in additional capacity. (In fact, you should look into abandoning this losing venture. But that is a different problem.) NPV(invest in exploratory brewery and continue to invest if it is positive-NPV) = [Prob(P1=D75)] (NPVP1=D75) + [Prob(P1=D25)] (NPVP1=D25) = (½)[(D350,000,000) +(4)(D350,000,000/1.10)] + (½)(-D150,000,000) = +D736,363,636 > NPV(invest in all five today) = +D500,000,000 > D0 d. Option Value = Intrinsic Value + Time Value NPV(wait one year) = NPV(invest today) + Opportunity cost of investing in four additional breweries today D 736,363,636 = D500,000,000 + D 236,363,636 The NPV of investing in all five breweries today is -D236,363,636. Grolsch would not be taking advantage of the flexibility provided by the timing option on this sequential investment. e. Invest in an exploratory brewery today and continue to invest if warranted by the quality (and hence market price) of the output.10.4 a. NPV(invest today) = [((R18,000/car-R15,000/car)(10,000cars))/0.20]-R100 million = R50 million ⇒ invest today? If you wait one year before deciding, then NPV will be either: NPVC1=R12,000 = [((R18,000/car-R12,000/car)(10,000cars)/0.20]/1.20]-R100 million = R150 million ⇒ invest, or NPVC1=R18,000 = [((R18,000/car-R18,000/car)(10,000cars)/0.20]/1.20]-R100 million = -R100 million ⇒ do not invest (so that NPV = R0). NPV(wait one year) = [Prob(C1=R12,000)](NPVC1=R12,000) + [Prob(C1=R18,000)](NPVC1=R18,000) = (½)(R150,000,000) + (½)(R0) = +75,000,000 > NPV(invest today) =R50,000 > R0 The time value of this real option reflects the opportunity cost of investing today: Time value = option value less intrinsic value = R75 million - R50 million = R25 million. b. NPV(invest in all 10 plants today) = 10*NPV(invest in one plant today) = R500 million NPV(invest in exploratory plant and continue to invest in 9 other plants if NPV>0) = [Prob(C1=R12,000)](NPVC1=R12,000) 38