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# NoEstimates: Forecasting with Less Effort and More Accuracy by Matthew Philip

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Wondering what NoEstimates means in practice or why you would want to try NoEstimates? Perhaps you’ve heard the buzz or read Vasco Duarte’s book. Maybe you simply want to understand how you can spend less time estimating and more time delivering working software—all while providing your customers with some understanding of predictability. If so, this group board game-based workshop will help you understand what and to what degree different factors influence delivery time. Join this session to learn how to move from upfront intuition-based estimates to create a data-based probabilistic forecast that provides a more reliable way to talk about when stuff will be done—and expend less effort to do so. Learn to forecast when things will be done -- with less effort and more accuracy!

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### NoEstimates: Forecasting with Less Effort and More Accuracy by Matthew Philip

1. 1. @mattphilip
2. 2. Greetings from ST. LOUIS
3. 3. @mattphilip #BAday2018www.noestimat.es • Objective: Learn what and how much different factors influence delivery time and understand options for forecasting • Complete cards to deliver the most value! • Play in “day” rounds • Teams play independently but have interdependency with other teams Big Picture
4. 4. @mattphilip #BAday2018www.noestimat.es • Cards depict the work needed • Circles represent effort to complete • Work must be started sequentially   (no peeking!) • Some cards are urgent! • Some depend on another team The Work
5. 5. @mattphilip #BAday2018www.noestimat.es The People • Each person can do 4 points of effort per day. (Use cubes to keep track.) • People can work in areas outside their specialty, but they get only half the points. • If you work on more than one team in a day, you lose one point per extra team   (context-switching penalty).
6. 6. @mattphilip #BAday2018www.noestimat.es Staff Your Teams! • Divide into teams of 4-8 people – they do not all have to be same size. • Decide as a group each player’s role (wear a “role” name tag). • You can share people across more than one team.
7. 7. @mattphilip #BAday2018www.noestimat.es Team Dependency • Some cards have a dependency on another team. • When you start a card that has one, draw a team card to see which team it is dependent upon. • To complete the card, someone from that team must spend time helping you. (Time spent helping another team counts against that person’s capacity.)
8. 8. @mattphilip #BAday2018www.noestimat.es Blockers End of Day • For each card in progress, spin (inner ring). • If the card is blocked, place a blocker sticky on the card. Beginning of Next Day For each blocked card, spin (outer ring): • Still blocked: no work can be done on it that day • Unblocked: remove the sticky, continue work
9. 9. @mattphilip #BAday2018www.noestimat.es Deployment • When you complete a card’s deployment work, roll the die. • If you roll 1, the card requires rework. Move the card back to Deployment and redo the Deployment work. =
10. 10. @mattphilip #BAday2018www.noestimat.es Daily Actions Start a card at any time, and record the commit date Spin to resolve any blocked cards Decide how to use each person’s effort (remember context-switch penalty!) Tick off work on the cards and move them accordingly Roll the die when a card finishes deployment to determine if it deployed, and record the day delivered For each card in progress, spin to determine if it’s blocked Move the day tracker and draw an event card.
11. 11. @mattphilip #BAday2018www.noestimat.es Scatterplot Keep track of your delivery times on the scatterplot chart.
12. 12. @mattphilip #BAday2018www.noestimat.es Scoring Scoring is based on how long it takes you to deliver each card: • 1-2 days: €700 • 3-5 days: €400 • 6+ days: €300 • Urgent: -€100 per day Before we start, we need an estimate! • Backlog = 25 cards • Average effort per card = 21
13. 13. @mattphilip #BAday2018www.noestimat.es After you complete 10 cards: Stop! And ask the facilitator to visit your table. =