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This talk explores how Unboxed is using “Theories of Change” to guide the design of future service innovations towards desired outcomes and how this helps us evaluate the impact of our design work. Theories of change have been used since the 1990s to evaluate development programmes in many different contexts, such as philanthropy and international development. They can be used to guide the design process as well as to evaluate existing services. One of the main benefits of this approach is that it compels the design team to explicitly articulate assumptions about how a proposed concept might achieve an intended outcome and how these outcomes might lead to long-term impact. These assumptions can then be validated through prototyping and research activities. The talk will cover recent examples of applying this approach in our work with Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS trust and with the Hackney Council housing repairs services in London. In both cases, the evidence of impact provided by this approach helped us gain buy-in from senior stakeholders and secure funding for further development of the digital services we were working on.