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BlueBRIDGE receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme under grant agreement...
"Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
Backgro...
"Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
Fish mo...
"Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
Data re...
"Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
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"Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
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"Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
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"Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
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"Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
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"Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
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"Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
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"Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based
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Projecting global fish stocks and catches up to 2100

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BlueBRIDGE workshop: "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based on EU e-infrastructures" - Brussels February 2018

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Projecting global fish stocks and catches up to 2100

  1. 1. BlueBRIDGE receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 675680 www.bluebridge-vres.eu Projecting global fish stocks and catches up to 2100 Jorn Bruggeman jbr@pml.ac.uk Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based on EU e-infrastructures 14-15 February 2018, Brussels
  2. 2. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels Background • Published in 2009, most downloaded FAO report • 2018 update expected to influence policy world-wide • Outline • global projections • regional chapters • aquaculture implications • PML: catch projections per Exclusive Economic Zone 15/02/2018 2
  3. 3. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels Fish modelling • Process-based modelling with simple rules • differentiate fish by size, not species • small fish feed on plankton, large fish on fish • metabolism is temperature dependent 15/02/2018 3 Blanchard et al. 2009. J Animal Ecol 78(1): 270–280 Blanchard et al. 2012. Phil Trans Roy Soc B 367(1605): 2979–2989
  4. 4. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels Data requirements • Variables • abundance of plankton types of different sizes • temperature • Space and time • domain: global • period: present till 2100 • temporal resolution: monthly or finer • spatial scale: ideally depth-explicit, aggregated per EEZ 15/02/2018 4
  5. 5. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels Sourcing climate projections Coupled Model Intercomparison Project: CMIP5 • 20 climate models • historical run and multiple scenarios (RCPs): 1850-2100 • gridded data (1°, 2°) • monthly data for surface ocean biogeochemistry • yearly data for depth-explicit biogeochemistry 15/02/2018 5 https://cmip.llnl.gov/cmip5/
  6. 6. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels Workflow 15/02/2018 6 ± 800 GB 3. average over each Exclusive Economic Zone 2. extract key variables: temperature, plankton 4. simulate fish per EEZ from 1850 to 2100 time series of stocks and catches per EEZ, 500 MB EEZ shapefile www.marineregions.org CMIP5 archive, 3.3 PB esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk FAO FishStat www.fao.org internet local cluster 1. select & download models: GFSL/IPSL/CMCC scenarios: RCP 2.6, 8.5 ocean biogeochemistry only 5. validate catch against historical records ± 80 GB 8.75 GB
  7. 7. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels Workflow 15/02/2018 7 ± 800 GB 3. average over each Exclusive Economic Zone 2. extract key variables: temperature, plankton 4. simulate fish per EEZ from 1850 to 2100 time series of stocks and catches per EEZ, 500 MB EEZ shapefile www.marineregions.org CMIP5 archive, 3.3 PB esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk FAO FishStat www.fao.org internet local cluster 1. select & download models: GFSL/IPSL/CMCC scenarios: RCP 2.6, 8.5 ocean biogeochemistry only 5. validate catch against historical records ± 80 GB 8.75 GB UK Janet network NetCDF Operators Python + Fortran 3.5 sec/simulated yr parallelized Python Python
  8. 8. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels Projected change in catch 15/02/2018 8 RCP2.6 2100 % change RCP8.5 2050
  9. 9. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels Present-day catches? Sources of uncertainty and error • observations: reporting per fishing nation, not EEZ; underreporting • inputs: plankton and temperature from climate models • parameterization: present and future fishing mortality (F = 0.2 yr-1) 15/02/2018 9 correlation: 0.57 FAO global capture production database
  10. 10. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels Role of fishing mortality Why does fishing not have more of an impact? Stock and recruitment are decoupled: production of eggs and juveniles is set by plankton availability, not stock size 15/02/2018 10 F = 0.2 yr-1 F = 0.4 yr-1 F = 0.8 yr-1 Predications of relative change are thus robust
  11. 11. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels Key findings However: • Due to interplay between plankton and temperature, lower latitudes (poorer nations) are disproportionally affected • This becomes even more pronounced if we account for habitat change – tropical regions lose the most species 15/02/2018 11 surface temperature ↑ stratification ↑ surface nutrients ↓ plankton ↓ fish ↓
  12. 12. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels Towards a service • Contract: develop a Marine, Coastal, Fisheries module for European seas • phase I: consult stakeholders • phase II: implementation and projection delivery • Potential follow ups • from European domain to global • regular updates 15/02/2018 12
  13. 13. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels Service design 15/02/2018 13 fish modelling Physics and biogeochemistry temperature, plankton climate drivers meteorology, river run-off, boundary conditions CMIP, EURO-CORDEX, E-HYPE hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model eutrophication ocean fronts Climate Impact Indicator suite Climate Data Store (CDS) Use cases – developed with partners and stakeholders Fisheries, Eutrophication, Marine Spatial Planning, Natural Capital Accounting Service developed by PML
  14. 14. "Supporting Blue Growth with innovative applications based on EU e-infrastructures”, 14-15 February 2018, Brussels Thank you https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/C3S_MCF_SIS • Manuel Barange, FAO • Momme Butenschön, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici • William Cheung, University of British Columbia • Julia Blanchard, University of Tasmania 15/02/2018 14

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