Venturefest 2011 green breakfast with Peter Head

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Venturefest 2011 green breakfast with Peter Head

  1. 1. Helping communities in Oxford to be more resilient and successful in recovering from the recession. Total Community RetrofitPeter Head CBE FREng FRSA | June 2011Consultant ArupChairman Institute for Sustainability
  2. 2. www.arup.com (ecological age) • Can we move towards a sustainable way of living? • What policies and investments are needed in low, middle and high income countries? • How might might we enable communities to transition in a resilient way to the Ecological Age? ‘Green Growth’2
  3. 3. 3
  4. 4. 4 New York City
  5. 5. Oxford compares very badly withother global cities for overall GHG emissions Oxford 2004 Source: Christopher Kennedy et al. 2009. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Global Cities. Environmental Science & Technology. 43(19), 7297-7302. (The data were mostly from 2005 although some cities had different years) 5 5
  6. 6. 6
  7. 7. Our Shrinking Earth 1900 1950 1987 2005 2030 2050 7.91 5.15 2.60 2.02 1.69 1.44 Year Hectares of land per capita7
  8. 8. Source: Global Footprint Network and SEI Swaziland Brazil World Russia France EU Oxfordshire United Kingdom Norway There are only 12 countries in the world with higher ecological footprints than Oxfordshire United States of America8 8
  9. 9. Most of Oxfordshire’s districts havepoor environmental footprints Ecological Carbon Footprint GHG Footprint Source: Stockholm Footprint (tonnes (tonnes Environment Institute (gha/capita) CO2/capita) CO2eq/capita)Worst South Oxfordshire 6.12 13.93 18.78 West Oxfordshire 5.86 13.36 18.02 Vale of White Horse 5.80 13.20 17.84 South East 5.63 12.76 17.28 Cherwell 5.62 12.75 17.26 UK 5.30 12.08 16.34 Best Oxford 5.04 11.40 15.44 Source: Stockholm Environment Institute 9
  10. 10. 1.44GHA/Capita HDI Increase (CO2 – 50%) + Ecological Footprint + Human Development Index = 2050 Ecological Age10
  11. 11. THE McKINSEY COST CURVE V2.0 IDENTIFIES 19 GT OF ABATEMENTS BY 2020 MAKING IT TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE TO ACHIEVE 450PPM BREAKDOWN BY ABATEMENT TYPE • 10 Gt for Terrestrial Carbon (Forestry and Agriculture) • 5 Gt for Energy Effiency • 4 Gt for Low Carbon Energy Supply11
  12. 12. Middle to High Income Countries • Transition from industrial to ecological age • City retrofitting and reconnecting urban-rural resource flows • Model – London Climate Change Action Plan, Frieburg, Stockholm, Malmo Investment in UK estimated £220bn to £450bn by 2050 £10k to 20k per household The Future is Local by SDC www.sd- commission.org.uk12
  13. 13. 10 Principles of Diversify and cooperate Use waste as resource Biomimicry Gather and use energy efficiently Optimise not maximise Use materials sparingly Clean up not pollute Do not draw down resources Remain in balance with the biosphere Run on information Use local resource13
  14. 14. 10 Principles of Diversify and cooperate Use waste as resource Biomimicry Gather and use energy efficiently Optimise not maximise Use materials sparingly Clean up not pollute Do not draw down resources Remain in balance with the biosphere Run on information Use local resource14
  15. 15. Community Leaders-Making a Good Society Now 45 people! www.londonlsdc.org/londonleaders www.futuresforcivilsociety.org And role of Art and Culture www.culturefutures.org15
  16. 16. Theory - Cultural Planning Culture Discipline and Sustainable City Development16
  17. 17. 10 Principles of Diversify and cooperate Use waste as resourceBiomimicry Gather and use energy efficiently Optimise not maximise Use materials sparingly Clean up not pollute Do not draw down resources Remain in balance with the biosphere Run on information Use local resource
  18. 18. Food Raw Materials Energy Water18 Resource Efficiency
  19. 19. Energy Consumption IMF, BP19
  20. 20. Oxfordshire residents are above-averagedomestic gas and electricity users Average annual domestic electricity sales per consumer 7,000 6,000 5,000 2005 4,000 kWh 2006 3,000 2007 2,000 1,000 0 Great South East Cherwell Oxford South Vale of West Britain Oxfordshire White Oxfordshire Region Horse Oxfordshire households (except in Oxford) used more electricity than the average for Great Britain and the South East region in 2007 Source: Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform 20
  21. 21. Oxfordshire residents are above-averagedomestic gas and electricity users Average annual domestic gas sales per consumer 20,500 20,000 19,500 19,000 18,500 kWh 18,000 2005 17,500 2006 17,000 16,500 2007 16,000 15,500 Great South East Cherwell Oxford South Vale of West Britain Oxfordshire White Oxfordshire Horse Region The average domestic gas consumption in 2007 was also above average in all Oxfordshire districts except Cherwell. Source: Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform 21
  22. 22. Potential Sources of CO2 reductions from the commercialindustrial sector Contribution to overall reduction• More efficient supply of heat/electricity 50%• Improvements to physical infrastructure 20%• Behavioural change (switching off lights etc) 25%• More energy efficient new builds 5%
  23. 23. 23 Balancing local and national energy supply networks
  24. 24. 24 Supergrid Vision TREC
  25. 25. Transport & Urban Density Compact City: Low rise and high density – 3 to 8 storeys/1.45 average plot ration/75 dwelling per hectares 80,000 people Peter Newman and Jeffrey Kenworthy (2006) “Urban Design to Reduce Automobile Dependence”, Opolis: An International Journal of Suburban and Metropolitan Studies: Vol. 2: No. 1, Article 3.25
  26. 26. Press Office City of Munster, Germany26
  27. 27. 27
  28. 28. Decreasing Food Supply Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC, United States28
  29. 29. Sustainable Agriculture, Wanzhuang Eco-City Rural-urban separation Business-as-Usual: Agricultural Food Production Dislocation from the City Access to sustainable practices Upskilling through training Access to information networks Access to modern agricultural equipment New urban-rural linkages Eco-City Configuration: Sustainable Rural-Urban Linkage29
  30. 30. Farming in the City
  31. 31. 10 Principles of Diversify and cooperate Use waste as resourceBiomimicry Gather and use energy efficiently Optimise not maximise Use materials sparingly Clean up not pollute Do not draw down resources Remain in balance with the biosphere Run on information Use local resource
  32. 32. Materials and Waste ‘Cradle to cradle’ TMDrivers of Change: Waste, Arup (2008)
  33. 33. … recycling is increasing Percentage household waste recycled 2003/04 2004/05 60 2005/06 2006/07 50 2007/08 Percentage recycled 2008/09 40 30 20 10 0 England Counties Oxfordshire Cherwell Oxford South Vale of West average** Oxfordshire White Horse Oxfordshire Region 43% of household waste collected in Oxfordshire in 2008/09 was recycled Source: Oxfordshire County and District Councils33 33
  34. 34. 34 Processes (Anaerobic Digestion/Composting)
  35. 35. 10 Principles of Diversify and cooperate Use waste as resource Biomimicry Gather and use energy efficiently Optimise not maximise Use materials sparingly Clean up not pollute Do not draw down resources Remain in balance with the biosphere Run on information Use local resource35
  36. 36. Urban Information Architecture ITS RFID BIM Broadband Control Rooms IRM WiMAX Specifications 3D – 4D – 5D CCTV D&B contracts Virtual Reality ANPR RIBA Collaboration Parking … … BMS … Tools Form and Infrastructure Management36
  37. 37. 37
  38. 38. Integrated multidisciplinary planning for delivering better performance outcomes in cities through retrofitting:38
  39. 39. Integrated Resource Management Linking the overarching masterplan to the technical Master Plan disciplines Waste Management Food Production Water supply Wastewater Economics Transport Logistics Energy Others Understanding interactions and feedback loops between elements39
  40. 40. 40 The System of City Life
  41. 41. Arup’s IRM Platform GISIRMLinkIRMTech. PlanStrate- gies41
  42. 42. Framework - Refined Plan42
  43. 43. “Our vision is to significantly advance the UK’s capability to deliver solutions for a sustainable future, byforging practical research collaborations and sharing the outcomes regionally, nationally and internationally”
  44. 44. The Total Community Retrofit Model 44
  45. 45. Total Community Retrofit: The Approach 45 Phase 1 – Model Phase 2 – Create Phase 3 – Delivery  Phase 4 ‐ Delivery Development local client Planning • Launch specific retrofit,  • Best practice review • Local steering group • Conduct detailed local  infrastructure and  opportunity analysis community projects • Stakeholder buy‐in • Initial local opportunity  analysis • Create delivery body • Develop local supply  • Early phase funding chains, develop skills,  • Priority workstreams • Collaboration agreement • Prioritise projects and  support job creation delivery approaches i. Financial/Business • Cultural audit • Assess progress   Model • Establish community  • Consolidate existing  through monitoring,  funding streams measuring and  structures ii. Community ownership             evaluation and value  • P/P/C client created • Secure delivery funding • Select priority locations 12 mths 6 mths 18 mths 10‐15 yrs Lifecycle – validation, replication • Measure results against expectations, collect community feedback • Develop knowledge transfer networks • Develop “replication toolkits” • Conduct dissemination outreach
  46. 46. Thank you‘But a city is more than a place in space, it is a drama in time’

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