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Blake Lapthorn's south coast green breakfast - the changing landscape of renewables

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Our Climate Change team held the inaugural series of green breakfasts with the fifth one taking place on Tuesday 8 May. The seminar looked at the chaning landscape of renewables.

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Blake Lapthorn's south coast green breakfast - the changing landscape of renewables

  1. 1. The Changing Landscape of RenewablesGregory Dix May 2012
  2. 2. The Changing Landscape of Renewables • Past and Present • Towards the Future • The Present • What the future might hold
  3. 3. Past and Present
  4. 4. Past and Present
  5. 5. Past and Present
  6. 6. Towards the Future
  7. 7. Towards the Future
  8. 8. Towards the Future
  9. 9. Towards the Future
  10. 10. Towards the Future
  11. 11. Now
  12. 12. Considerations
  13. 13. Now and Solar 11th Dec Deadline 3rd March Deadline 1st April Deadline
  14. 14. The FiT Mix 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 MicroCHP pilot 600,000 Anaerobic digestion Hydro 400,000 WindWnpdeakycst)(Iil 200,000 Photovoltaics 0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Quarter (2010) Quarter (2011) Quarter (2012)
  15. 15. Predicting Deployment
  16. 16. The RHI
  17. 17. Summary • Past and Present • Towards the Future • The Present • What the future might hold
  18. 18. If I have the time.........
  19. 19. Considerations in Wind Deployment in Detail • Wind Turbines The correct choice of turbine will be critical to project viability.
  20. 20. Considerations • Wind Turbines The correct choice of turbine will be critical to project viability. Does the turbine have a track history? Does the turbine have “real” not “theoretical” demonstrated outputs? Is the turbine manufacture solvent? Is the turbine bankable? What time scales for delivery? Can the manufacture provide localised service? What warranty levels available/ and O&M contracts?
  21. 21. Considerations • Aviation 5% of projects have significant aviation issues resulting in project failure 20% have adverse aviation issues which could result in project failure Who might object: MoD, RAF, NATS, CAA, unlicenced aerodromes Don’t forget telecommunication operators. Less of a problem as normally line of site, but on smaller projects could be a show stopper.
  22. 22. Considerations • Grid 30% of projects are not financially viable due to excessive grid costs 20% of projects have significant grid connection costs Most projects will require as a minimum a 3 phase supply connection point or 3 wire 11kV HV, larger developments will require 33kV. Capital costs of upgrading 11kV/33kV line or switchgear/bus bars in substations can be significant. Easements or wayleaves with 3rd parties can take a long time to resolve.
  23. 23. Considerations P90 P50 • Finance Project based finance or asset based? Gearing Capacity Factor = ratio of actual output vs Due Diligence/ Risk theoretical max output over a period of time 27% 30% Power Generation
  24. 24. Summary • Viability vs Feasibility All projects are feasible, but many are not viable • Wind Turbines What are you buying? • Aviation Check early • Grid Check early • Finance Don’t over gear and check your turbine project will be bankable

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