Blake Lapthorn Thames Valley Pensions conference - 5 Dec 2012
Thames Valley Pensions Conference 2012Are we (anywhere near) there yet? Seacourt Tower, Oxford 5 December 2012Adrian LambBlake Lapthorn
Thames Valley Pensions Conference 2012 Health & safety and housekeeping! Feedback forms Ask questions throughout Participate Challenge Enjoy
Thames Valley Pensions Conference 2012Agenda and timetable9.30 am Introduction – look back in anger, look forward in hope9.40 am What really worries me is ……9.45 am So what are my liabilities exactly? – Mark Da Silva, Barnett Waddingham10.20 am Picking up the pieces - Richard Portlock and Nicola Walker, Blake Lapthorn10.50 am Communication not just information – Alex Thurley- Ratcliff, Shilling Communication11.20 am COFFEE BREAK11.40 am Where in the world – and what – Claire Glennon, Baring Asset Management12.15 pm Auto enrolment – the duties and the challenges – Shaun Thompson, Blake Lapthorn12.35 pm The Trustee’s perspective and the crystal maze12.50 pm Questions and open forum1.00 pm LUNCH!
Previous questions Is there such a thing as a risk free investment? Can I ever know what our liabilities really are? Data, what data? Is there such a thing as an equity risk premium now … or is it just an equity risk? Can I get smarter with my/our investment strategy? What does it take to make DC adequate? What is adequate? Is auto enrolment just a precursor to more tax? Can it work? What do we need to do? Can I do anything about this (other than pray)?
Current questions Can DC deliver what employers and employees want? How real is the measure of my liabilities – or what measure is the most realistic – TP, PPF or buy out? Mistakes happen but what can I do about them? Where can I achieve the most in the time available? Can I make auto enrolment into a positive rather than just a headache? How can I improve understanding? What is the “big picture” here?
Thames Valley Pensions Conference 2012- the economic backdrop “Fiscal cliff” “Flat is the new growth” “Zombie companies” “Extend and pretend” More for less (or at least no more) Eurozone crisis (chronic) Triple dip? QE – a necessary evil? BRIC & CIVETS v. PIIGS+ ?
Low gilt yields Government bond yields are at historic lows A combination of economic factors: • Supply and demand • UK bonds perceived as a relative safe haven • Bank of England’s quantitative easing (QE)15
Steep Yield Curve – Case Study Previous method: yield on an index with a shorter average term Revised method: reflects the full profile of the liabilities •Change results in a higher discount rate Single yield 85.7% Yield curve 100%23
Long-Term Equity Model • Alternative equity model • Return = Dividend yield + GDP growth • Current ERP implied by DDM is ca. 5-6% pa24
Equities vs. Gilts Spread of returns Data source: Barcap study25
Other Growth Assets Similar approach possible for: •Property •Infrastructure Absolute return funds: •Consider benchmark return26
Consultation on changes to RPI • Various options to reduce RPI • Formula effect could be removed entirely • Market already partially pricing in anticipated change ? • Decision expected in January 2013 • Effect on gilts • Some gilts have ‘materially detrimental’ price protection • Another ca. £240bn without protection28
Interim valuations Extra security Ride out Revise the SoC storm?31
Regulator’s Statement - Summary Not appropriate to second-guess gilt yields in the valuation results • Need to recognise your technical provisions in full Flexibility in the Recovery Plan • Can reflect post-valuation events • or future investment views • Starting point: maintain contributions in real terms • Reduced contributions or longer recovery plans require “sound justification” Scheme should be equitably treated among competing demands of employer32
Other Possible Actions Uprisking • Can reflect in recovery plan Liability management • Add PIE option at retirement Break salary link? Amendments to future service Additional security • SPV / contingent assets • Improve funding and reduce PPF levy33
Buy-In or Matching Opportunities Pricing attractive for schemes currently holding gilts • Especially shorter-term gilts Pensioner buy-in may have a small or no impact on the scheme funding position Reduce volatility of the funding position36
Strategy changes Inflation Hedging • Lock into current low rates • Especially if selling fixed interest gilts to do so Uprisking? • Opportunity to ‘bank’ gilt rises • Forms part of a wider strategy review37
Quick transaction case study Example Ltd is a mature DB Scheme with 80% pensioners. It is fully funded on a solvency basis with £40m assets. Investments: 75% gilts , 15% corporates, 10% equities BUT… Scheme provides discretionary increases •Funding for these leaves a £4m deficit Valuation in progress – issues faced:38
Quick transaction case study Insure pensioners • Guaranteed benefits only – costs £1m less than TPs with Met Life Split remaining • Protection for other guaranteed benefits (pooled swap funds) assets • Growth to back future discretionary benefit Growth assets • Required return 2% p.a. above gilts if buy-in with Met Life split between cash • No further contributions needed from employer and DGF Trustees and Employer compromised but achieved objectives: • Trustees - security for guaranteed benefits and continuation of discretionary increases • Employer - affordable funding commitments • Both - framework for managing scheme going forward39
Regulatory Information The information in this presentation is based on our understanding of current taxation law, proposed legislation and HM Revenue & Customs practice, which may be subject to future variation. This presentation is not intended to provide and must not be construed as regulated investment advice. Returns are not guaranteed and the value of investments may go down as well as up. Barnett Waddingham LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales. Registered Number OC307678. Registered Office: Cheapside House, 138 Cheapside, London, EC2V 6BW Barnett Waddingham LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is licensed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries for a range of investment business activities.40
Thames Valley Pensions conference Picking up the pieces Nicola Walker, Associate firstname.lastname@example.org and Richard Portlock, Partner email@example.com
Picking up the pieces(when you wish you could travel back in time)
Common pitfalls Insufficient detailed knowledge of Deed and Rules – Over reliance on advisers – Understanding particular benefits issues - eg revaluation, application of increases to pensions in payment Lack of care when making specific changes – eg equalisation, changes in benefit structure – ask questions! – Check the amendments reflect what you are trying to achieve
Common pitfalls - continued Failing to act promptly – Do not rely on right to let drafting catch up with decision making/administrative practice – Restrictions on taking away benefits
Rescue missions Applications for directions – Duty of Trustees to understand scope of scheme liabilities – Support for Trustee decision making by the Courts – Involvement of representative beneficiaries Rectification – Available where a document fails to record what you intended it to record – Distinction between a mistake as to the content of a document and its effect – Filling the funding gap
Rescue missions – continued Principal employer Claims against advisers – Negligence – What would have you done, properly advised? – Quantifying loss - actuarial evidence – Contributory negligence?
Tips for sound sleep at nightAppoint advisers carefullyRely on advice - but test assumptions and ask questionsMaintain a secure grasp of the detailed effect of changesRemember help is available when things go wrong
Some of our happy endings…….Directions Applications– Foster WheelerNegligence proceedings– Out of Court settlementRectification– Successful amendment of incorrect documentation
What do they THINK AND FEEL? what really counts major preoccupations worries and aspirations What do they What do they HEAR? SEE? what friends say environment what boss says friendswhat influencers say what the market offers What do they SAY AND DO? attitude in public appearance behaviour towards others PAIN GAIN fears wants and needs frustrations measures of success obstacles obstacles
Getting attention• Recognise that people aren’t interested – Channels: optimised for your audience – Packaging: first impressions count – Relevant: make it personal and meaningful – Tone: honesty“Fits with me”
Build positive initial behaviours• Goal setting – Realistic levels• Small steps – Encouragement, words of support – Rewarding behaviour – Regular tracking• Age‐appropriate messages
Getting real decisions through calls to action• What is a real decision?• How do you increase the likelihood of employees making firm decisions?
Opt Out Join 3 year anniversary? All at once? Annual reminders? Contributions phasing? Eligible Jobholders Printed or Printed or Payroll data Web info as Web info as • One or multiple required required payroll uploads• Common format required• Stage test of data • System carries out Email Email and then push live checks against SMS SMS• “Live” feed could be eligibility data: age, AE PDF PDF discussed pay and joining date PURL PURL Comms Web Not Eligible & • Could include cost of Web contributions at point Platform dPrint dPrint Entitled Workers of AE Opt in Change in eligibility Management info • Can be pulled or pushed via email 1‐3 month postponement communications Online updates / checks and end result communicated effectively
AE Comms Platform Dear Mrs Jones You may have heard about Auto‐Enrolment or AE. This is the Government’s plan to help more people save for their retirement. Auto‐Enrolment means that employees who meet the criteria will be automatically enrolled in the XYZ Pension Scheme, pay a small contribution towards membership, but receive contributions from the James Smith company as well. Pension Manager XYZ Pension Scheme Tel: 01234 567890 www.xyzpensions.co.uk E: firstname.lastname@example.org
FOR PROFESSIONAL ADVISERS ONLY Where in the world - and what? Blake Lapthorn – Thames Valley Pensions Conference December 2012Baring AssetManagement Limited Claire Glennon155 Bishopsgate,London, EC2M 3XYTel +44 (0)20 7628 6000Fax +44 (0)20 7638 7928www.barings.comAuthorised and regulated by the CONFIDENTIALFinancial Services Authority
Introduction• Most pension funds require an allocation to growth assets• Equity investment has been the traditional route• Is there a better alternative?• How do Diversified Growth Funds work?• How can they replace equities in a growth portfolio? 75
How do Diversified Growth funds work?Aim• To deliver equity like returns with less risk than equities by targeting an absolute return over cash or inflationApproach• Not benchmark driven - every investment held is because it will contribute to the risk/return profile• Multi-asset investing – potential to hold the broadest range of assets• Manager has control over asset allocation – seeking returns in different markets An investment and governance solution 76
Why a cash or inflation + target? Log scale % change year on year 10,000,000 140 120 1,000,000 100 100,000 80 10,000 60 40 1,000 20 100 0 -20 10 -40 1 -60 1899 1904 1909 1914 1919 1924 1929 1934 1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 Gilt returns % (RHS)~ UK equity returns % (RHS)~ UK Equity Nominal TR Index (LHS)* UK Cash + 4% Index (LHS)* UK Cost of Living + 5% Index (LHS)* Libor +4% = equity return with less riskSource: Barclays Equity Gilt Study 2012, 1899 – 2011* Cumulative ~ Annual 77
Some examples of Diversified Growth Funds Passive Asset Active Allocation Asset Allocation Active Stock Passive Selection Stock Selection Derivatives Strategies/ Currencies ? Common aim to deliver real returns, reduce volatility and improve governance 78
Our approach The Baring Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund• We target Cash +4% absolute returns within 70% of equity risk• Focus on dynamic asset allocation- the most important generator of returns• Dynamically participating in up-markets and dampening volatility in down markets• Diversify in different ways at different times• Simple building blocks - clear and transparent implementation 79
Why Dynamic Asset Allocation is Critical Best and worst performing asset classes2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Emerging Equities 37.4 Overseas Bonds 58.1 Emerging Equities 59.4 Gold Bullion 33.4 Index Linked Gilts 23.3Gold Bullion 29.6 Gold Bullion 42.8 Asia Ex Japan 53.3 Asia Ex Japan 24.0 UK Gilts 15.6Asia Ex Japan 29.0 UK Gilts 12.8 UK Equities 30.1 Emerging Equities 22.9 Gold Bullion 11.9European Equities 15.3 Cash 4.7 European Equities 19.4 N American Equities 19.0 Property 8.1Hedge Funds 4.5 European Equities -24.4 Cash 0.5 UK Gilts 7.2 Asia ex Japan -13.0Corporate Bonds 1.8 UK Equities -29.9 UK Gilts -1.2 European Equities 5.3 Japanese Equities -13.1Property -5.5 Asia Ex Japan -31.3 Japanese Equities -5.9 Hedge Funds 5.2 European Equities -15.2Japanese Equities -6.5 Emerging Equities -35.2 Overseas Bonds -9.7 Cash 0.4 Emerging Equities -17.6 The right asset class at the right time is keySource: Barings as at 31.12.11 80
Changes in asset allocation since inceptionBaring Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund (%) 100 Cash/Near Cash Alternatives 80 Property Themed Fixed Fund* 60 Corporate/Convertible Bonds 40 Overseas Govt Bonds UK Gilts 20 Overseas Equity 0 UK Equity 31-Oct-12 31-Jan-07 30-Jun-07 30-Jun-08 30-Jun-09 30-Jun-10 30-Jun-11 30-Jun-12 21-Mar-07 31-Mar-08 31-Mar-09 31-Mar-10 31-Mar-11 31-Mar-12 28-Sep-07 31-Dec-07 30-Sep-08 31-Dec-08 30-Sep-09 31-Dec-09 30-Sep-10 31-Dec-10 30-Sep-11 31-Dec-11 30-Sep-12 Source: Barings, as at 31.10.12, Gross Exposure Inception date: 16.01.07 *Themed Fixed Fund composition: Aug ’07-Feb ’08: 0-3yr Ster bonds. Mar ’09-June ’10: Overseas ILGovt; Aug 10-to date: EMD 81
Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund PerformanceQuarterly Returns Since Inception 30 Return % 20 12.5 10 6.4 6.6 5.7 3.8 3.3 3.1 3.0 1.3 -2.3 -1.3 -2.6 -2.4 2.9 3.7 -3.1 -1.9 -0.9 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.2 1.2 2.0 0 -0.4 -1.5 3.0 4.5 -1.8 10.9 22.4 5.5 6.4 13.6 7.4 1.0 1.9 8.4 6.1 -2.6 4.7 2.5 -10 -9.1 -9.9 -12.2 -10.2 -11.8 -13.5 -20 SI (ann.) Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Fund FTSE All SharePast performance is no indication of current or future performance. The performance data does not takeaccount of the commissions and costs incurred on the issue and redemption of units. Source: Barings & Morningstar, as at 30.09.12. SI (ann) as at 30.09.12. DAAF performance figures are shown for I Class shares in Sterling on a NAV per share basis, with net income reinvested. Reference to the index is for comparative purposes only. 82
Current Portfolio & Themes (as at 31st October 2012) Concern Implication US monetary policy more radical, but US the major uncertainty for 1H 2013 fiscal policy tightening Global growth still slow Earnings expectations still vulnerable Slower growth in China recognised by the Similarly recognised by Chinese markets administration ECB has toolbox to avoid financial Governments less threatened by markets, market-induced failure of the Euro rather their electorates Corporate sector hoarding cash; nervous Supporting of credit with still little scope about investment for higher government bond yieldsSource: Barings
The application of DGFs by pension schemesDB Schemes100% Substituting all growth assets25% - 50% A core holding which dynamically changes the growth asset mix of the scheme, while maintaining strategic allocations to other growth asset classes5% - 10% Strategic allocation to an alternative risk/return profileDC Schemes An “accumulation phase” equity replacement strategy Often used as a part of scheme default for early and middle stages of a “lifestyle” approach 84
Conclusion• An alternative growth asset offering less volatility than equities• Targeting a real rate of return• Aiming to access equity markets at the right time• With the ability to diversify away from risk assets to control volatility An approach generating increased appetite from public and private sector Pension Schemes 85
Important InformationFor Professional Investors/Advisers only. It should not be distributed to or relied on by Retail Investors.This document is approved and issued by Baring Asset Management Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and in jurisdictions other thanthe UK it is provided by the appropriate Baring Asset Management company/affiliate whose name(s) and contact details are specified herein. The information in thisdocument does not constitute investment, tax, legal or other advice or recommendation. It is not an invitation to subscribe and is for information only.Investment involves risk. The value of any investments and any income generated may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Past performance isnot a guide to future performance. Where yields have been quoted they are not guaranteed. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value,price or income of an investment. There are additional risks associated with investments (made directly or through investment vehicles which invest) in emerging ordeveloping markets. Investments in higher yielding bonds issued by borrowers with lower credit ratings may result in a greater risk of default and have a negative impacton income and capital value. Income payments may constitute a return of capital in whole or in part. Income may be achieved by foregoing future capital growth. Wereasonably believe that the information contained herein from 3rd party sources, as quoted, is accurate as at the date of publication.The information and any opinions expressed herein may change at any time. Companies and employees of the Baring Asset Management group may hold positions inthe investment(s) concerned. This document may include internal portfolio construction guidelines. As guidelines the fund is not required to and may not always bewithin these limits. These guidelines are subject to change without prior notice and are provided for information purposes only.This document may include forward looking statements which are based on our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update orrevise any forward looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward looking statements.This document must not be used, or relied on, for purposes of any investment decisions. Before investing in any product, we recommend that appropriate financialadvice should be sought and all relevant documents relating to the product, such as Reports and Accounts and Prospectus should be read. Compensationarrangements under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom will not be available in respect to any Offshore Fund.Research MaterialBaring Asset Management only produces research for its own internal use. Where details of research are provided in this document it is provided as an example ofresearch undertaken by Baring Asset Management and must not be used, or relied upon, for the purposes of any investment decisions. The information and opinionsexpressed herein may change at anytime.Version 08/SD Compliance (London): 06 August 2012Compliance (London): 06 August 2012 86
Auto enrolment – the duties and the challenges More than just pensions! Shaun Thompson, Solicitor Pensions team email@example.com
Auto enrolment in a nutshell Applies to all UK companies! Workforce is split into eligible, non eligible and entitled workers. Different obligations in relation to each category of worker. Some obligations in force now, some will come into force in coming months and years. Re-enrolment obligations.
Why auto enrolment? Cost pressures and lifestyle choices – we are living longer and not saving enough for retirement! The auto enrolment reforms intend to address this issue.
How prepared are you? Studies suggest many UK employers are not yet fully prepared. This will affect your business – ensure you’re ready!
Staging date What is it? When is it? Do you know when your company’s staging date is? How do you comply with it? Payroll issues. Plan and prepare, don’t underestimate challenges!
Identifying your workforce What is a worker? Know which of your employees are eligible, non eligible and entitled workers. Keep this under review – employees can switch between categories!
Which pension arrangement(s) to use? Use an existing pension scheme? Set up a new pension scheme - occupational or personal/trust based or contract based? Master trust? Use NEST? Use a single arrangement or a mix of the above? Self certification. Salary sacrifice. Use postponement/transitional period?
Using contractual enrolment Simpler but more expensive? Watch out for potential issue as to deduction of contributions. Differences in communication requirements? Remember re-enrolment obligations for employees who opt out!
Notices and record keeping requirements Prescribed requirements which employers must meet. Remember deadlines and time limits!
High earnersPotential for HMRC protection to be lost.Potentially expensive consequences for employees withthis protection!Duty of good faith - employer communication strategy?
Investment funds and charges – risks toemployers? No “safe harbour” protection in auto enrolment legislation. Suitable default fund, investment options. Pot follows member concerns. Employer’s duty of good faith.
Penalties for non-compliance Pensions Regulator can intervene and require certain steps to be taken and/or impose financial levies for non-compliance. Fines can be of up to £10,000 a day. Criminal offences. Should help companies focus on their duties and obligations!
Conclusion Auto enrolment is not going to go away! Ensure your company will be able to meet obligations by its staging date. Ongoing obligations and compliance. Challenges and opportunities! Success? Here to stay? Get out the crystal ball!
The Trustee’s perspectiveand the Crystal Maze- Adrian Lamb, Blake Lapthorn
Thames Valley Pensions Conference 2012Just when you thought things couldn’t getany worse!UK Fund deficits up by £20bn (or more)?Volatile asset values – where to get some value?Auto enrolment – more work but for what benefit?What chance have employees got to understand all that is goingon – new arrangements; DB to DC; investment choices; AMCs,AMDs, etc.Continued pressure on covenantsLife expectancy???Retirement – what retirement?Outlook for gilt yields????
D =Deficits – but how much really?Deferred payments?Deal with the mistakesDefensiveDe-risk (or re-risk)?Dynamic Asset Allocation (or Diversified Growth)Defined Contribution = disappointment and delayedretirementDifficult messages and decisionsDelegate more or better (or both)
Thames Valley Pensions Conference 2012- a Trustee’s perspective – a look back at the last12 months More - or at least the same - for less, eg audit fees What next - valuations, administration, governance budgets? Towards fiduciary management (or proxy) = fewer lunches! Buy ins/outs in vogue and then? Gilts v. Corp bonds 2nd/3rd valuation = better understanding but greater pressures? Data and benefit audits TPR expectations Less time – more focus
Thames Valley Pensions Conference 2012Reasons to be cheerful?
Things to take away from today This is all for the members – right contributions, right investments, right benefits Liabilities - follow the rules but check your data Manage your risks – they come in all shapes and sizes – liability, assets and operational Good governance – What are you trying to achieve? – Plan on how to get there – Measure what you do as well as what others do for you – Adjust if and when you need to – Be decisive Most DB schemes headed for either buy out or PPF – but is there an alternative? Master trusts/aggregated schemes? Other efficiencies – how hard has the pensions industry tried?Thames Valley Pensions Conference 2012
Things to take away from todayIMPROVING DC OUTCOMES Good choice of funds, including default fund Salary sacrifice Annual management charges Save more tomorrow? Governance matters just as much here – Committee with training – replicate trustee role? – Review processes – Agreed objectives Master trusts/aggregationIt’s in everybody’s interests that it is made to workThames Valley Pensions Conference 2012
Question timeThames Valley Pensions Conference 2012