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Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years The Political Economy of Change in Cuba “ Forecasting th...
Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years Emily Morris
Disclaimer <ul><li>“ The only function of economic forecasting is  </li></ul><ul><li>to make astrology look respectable”  ...
Two years <ul><li>Starting point </li></ul><ul><li>System : state dominated, distorted, stagnated </li></ul><ul><li>Struct...
Short term forecast output and expenditure (av. annual % change) Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and ...
Five years <ul><li>Starting point: 2013 </li></ul><ul><li>System : more mixed, still distorted, contradictory </li></ul><u...
Medium term forecast output and expenditure (av. annual % change) Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and...
20 years <ul><li>Starting point: 2016 </li></ul><ul><li>System : mixed, unified peso, social protection </li></ul><ul><li>...
Long term forecast Real GDP per head, index (2010=100) Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years
One forecast scenario of many <ul><li>No major shocks </li></ul><ul><ul><li>risks need identifying and quantifying </li></...
The Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years Open to debate… Emily Morris  [email_address]
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Emily Morris

  1. 1. Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years The Political Economy of Change in Cuba “ Forecasting the Cuban Economy: Two Years, Five Years, and Twenty Years” Emily Morris London Metropolitan University
  2. 2. Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years Emily Morris
  3. 3. Disclaimer <ul><li>“ The only function of economic forecasting is </li></ul><ul><li>to make astrology look respectable” </li></ul><ul><li>J.K. Galbraith </li></ul>Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years
  4. 4. Two years <ul><li>Starting point </li></ul><ul><li>System : state dominated, distorted, stagnated </li></ul><ul><li>Structure : service-dominant, undercapitalised, externally vulnerable </li></ul><ul><li>Assumptions </li></ul><ul><li>Endogenous : regime survival, economic reforms </li></ul><ul><li>Exogenous : no major upheavals (Vz, US) </li></ul>Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years
  5. 5. Short term forecast output and expenditure (av. annual % change) Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years
  6. 6. Five years <ul><li>Starting point: 2013 </li></ul><ul><li>System : more mixed, still distorted, contradictory </li></ul><ul><li>Structure : new activity, investment rising, still externally vulnerable </li></ul><ul><li>Assumptions </li></ul><ul><li>Endogenous : regime survival, economic reform momentum, exchange rate adjustment </li></ul><ul><li>Exogenous : Vz weaker, US sanctions remain </li></ul>Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years
  7. 7. Medium term forecast output and expenditure (av. annual % change) Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years
  8. 8. 20 years <ul><li>Starting point: 2016 </li></ul><ul><li>System : mixed, unified peso, social protection </li></ul><ul><li>Structure : more diverse, more capacity, less externally vulnerable </li></ul><ul><li>Assumptions </li></ul><ul><li>Endogenous : reform momentum and reforming PCC </li></ul><ul><li>Exogenous : Vz support gone, US slow moves towards engagement, no global collapse </li></ul>Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years
  9. 9. Long term forecast Real GDP per head, index (2010=100) Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years
  10. 10. One forecast scenario of many <ul><li>No major shocks </li></ul><ul><ul><li>risks need identifying and quantifying </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sustainability depends upon </li></ul><ul><ul><li>capacity to adapt </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>focus on ‘binding constraints’ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>lineamientos: a step on a sustainable path? </li></ul>Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years
  11. 11. The Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years Open to debate… Emily Morris [email_address]

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