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Foresight by Trajectory


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Foresight by Trajectory

  1. 1. Themes emerging from BIG’s Foresight programme Report 1 Highlights Prepared for Big Lottery Fund March 2014
  2. 2. Needs associated with an ageing society are well understood, but local areas have very different levels of exposure to ageing… Highest proportion of older people % 65+ Lowest Proportion of older people % 65+ Christchurch 29.7% Tower Hamlets 6.1% West Somerset 29.1% Newham 6.7% North Norfolk 28.8% Hackney 7.1% Rother 28.4% Lambeth 7.7% East Devon 28.2% Southwark 7.7% UK Census 2011 Although each constituent UK Nation is ageing at similar paces there are sharp disparities at local and regional level. Some areas of the UK are ageing at a faster rate than others – typically those based in the South West of around the South East coast, which are popular retirement areas The concentration of older people within rural communities increases the risk of both geographical and digital isolation. Although older people are likely to have higher levels of subjective wellbeing, isolation can negatively affect this
  3. 3. Source: ONS population projections Less well reported are the needs associated with the recent uplift in birth rate in the UK… 4,600,000 4,800,000 5,000,000 5,200,000 5,400,000 5,600,000 5,800,000 Number of children in the UK 5-11 year olds 12-18 year olds • The number of schools in the UK is declining – in England, there are nearly 3,000 fewer than in 1990 • However, the high birth rate over the past 15 years is causing rising numbers of children - meaning that for many areas the supply of places may not meet demand • Other demographic trends are also causing challenges for schools – immigration in recent years has led to more than a million school pupils having English as an Additional language School provision will be a central issue over the next few years as the rising number of children challenges existing capacity. Within education, new challenges are emerging – particularly for those with additional needs, such as language barriers
  4. 4. Source: ONS, Household final consumption expenditure Rising housing costs put increased pressure on household budgets… 9% 9% 9% 20% 24% 26% 14% 14% 14% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 14% 12% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2005 2009 2012 Food and drink Alcohol and tobacco Clothing and footwear Housing Household goods/services Health Transport Communication Recreation and culture Education Restaurants and hotels Miscellaneous • Increases in the cost of living are primarily being driven by rises in housing costs. • As a proportion of total spending, other major areas (including leisure, food and drink and transport) have all remained stable. • Individual spending priorities vary widely across the country, marking the need for targeted action rather than a blanket approach. • Housing costs in London, for example, are £30 a week higher than the UK average – and twice as high as the lowest spending area (North East). Increases in the cost of living of the past few years have been caused primarily by rising housing costs, with consumers cutting back in other areas. These trends also vary across the country, with different priorities and costs associated with different regions
  5. 5. Mental ill health is an increasing driver of social need with apparently different incidence rates… 4.7% 8.2% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% Men Women 7.6% 7.5% 6.7% 4.3% 3.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.2% 2.1% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% Incidence of clinical depression varies widely by both gender and ethnicity – with men half as likely as women to be diagnosed. Some ethnic groups, such as Bangladeshi, Chinese and Indian far less likely than the national average to be diagnosed Source: Understanding Society, 2010-11. Base: 47,605
  6. 6. However, it seems that the real issue is a diagnosis gap for BME groups… However, while certain ethnicities are far less likely to be diagnosed, they are not any less likely to feel ‘downhearted or depressed’ all or most of the time. As the chart below shows, there is a major gap between feeling depressed and being diagnosed (women only) 13.2% 11.5% 10.6% 8.6% 8.2% 8.2% 8.1% 3.9% 4.9% 9.8% 2.4% 3.8% 2.9% 2.9% 9.3% 2.6% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% Pakistani Mixed Bangladeshi Other Indian Black White Chinese Feeling downhearted and depressed all or most of the time Diagnosed with clinical depression Source: Understanding Society, 2010-11. Base: 26,630
  7. 7. National data suggest that community cohesion is in decline, though local data is more positive… 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Do you think there is generally more or less racial prejudice in Britain now than there was 5 years ago More now Less now • The last decade has seen a substantial and sustained rise in the proportion of people in the UK who believe there is more racial prejudice in the UK than previously. • Although in recent years this has declined to 39%, it is still almost twice as high as the record low (20% in 1998) • However, one positive note is that amongst local communities, racial cohesion is much more positive – with 91% of Asian people and 87% of black people agreeing that people from different backgrounds get on well together in their local area Source: British Social Attitudes 2012 Although people generally have a positive opinion of their local communities, there is an increasing perception that racial prejudice is increasing elsewhere in the UK
  8. 8. For the full report please visit… Trajectory Ltd Enterprise House 1-2 Hatfields London SE1 9PG T 020 3567 5801 #TrajectoryTweet research-round-up/foresight