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Spotlight (Technology Mythbusting) 04182012

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Technology Mythbusting, Millenials and Beyond

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Spotlight (Technology Mythbusting) 04182012

  1. 1. April LIVE Spotlight:Technology MythbustingSeparating fact from fictionPresented by:Ryan McConnell, Associate Head of US MONITORAndy Stubbings, Sr. Consultant and co-author of Technology 2020 Futures PerspectiveWe Are Tweeting This Today at @FuturesCo #Techmyths
  2. 2. Welcome to 1993 “The information superhighway” in 1993© The Futures Company 2012 1
  3. 3. The 1990s view of the future … “Have you ever …? “Sent a fax … from the beach” “Tucked your baby in … from a phone booth” “Gotten a phone call … from your wrist”© The Futures Company 2012 2
  4. 4. Similar techno-centric vision, different decade Virtual touch-screen mirrors linking schools in the US and India (Microsoft) “You just need to think about calling someone and it happens!” (IBM) Television, email and instant messages on your bathroom mirror (Corning)© The Futures Company 2012 3
  5. 5. It‟s not 1993 anymore 40 years since the protocols that constitute the Internet were completed 20 years since the invention of the worldwide web 10 years since social media began to evolve We now have enough perspective to draw conclusions about the nature of change in the digital world© The Futures Company 2012 4
  6. 6. There is a better way Our philosophy: You can‟t understand how the future of technology will evolve by looking at technology alone. A broader lens is required. Inputs Tools Scanning for Global/US Consumer Changes in emerging MONITOR needs and social values issues and analysis and motivations trends insight Proprietary Emerging Changes in technology Literature and trends infrastructure knowledge forecast review base Changes in law Core science Proprietary frameworks and and and technology analysis tools regulations© The Futures Company 2012 5
  7. 7. Mythbusting© The Futures Company 2012 6
  8. 8. We considered a wide list of contenders … Driverless cars Augmented reality QR codes Anonymous identity online m-Health 3D Bio printing© The Futures Company 2012 7
  9. 9. The six statements we‟re evaluating today Technology is expanding at a pace never seen before It‘s impossible to predict the future of technology Mobile is ―the next big thing‖ A cashless society is imminent Technology is the best way to understand Millennials An ―always on‖ way of life is the future© The Futures Company 2012 8
  10. 10. Statement #1 Technology is expanding at a pace never seen before© The Futures Company 2012 9
  11. 11. Must go faster ... must go faster! Throughout history people have thought that technology is more incredible and faster than ever Future shock is the shattering stress and disorientation that we induce in individuals by submitting them to too much change in too short a time Alvin Toffler, 1970 The great heart of humanity [will] beat with a single pulse … Wars are to cease. The kingdom of peace will be set up The New York Evening Post, 1858 Man is become a bird; he can fly on longer and quicker than a solan goose ... Everything is near, everything is immediate; time, distance, and delay are abolished. The Morning Chronicle, 1842 I call this a Semi-omnipotent Engine … and I may boldly call it The most stupendous Work in the whole world Marquis of Worcester, 1663© The Futures Company 2012 10
  12. 12. The problem We equate this ... … with this Transformational technological Inevitable progress, and change, e.g., the steam engine exponential change The doubling of the number of transistors that can be placed on a “Even microchip every 18 months or faster!” so, aka Moore‘s Law “Oh my Speed of goodness social this is change fast!” “Faster!” Time© The Futures Company 2012 11
  13. 13. We‟ve been here before Information and communication technologies have followed the same pattern of development as other technological revolutions since the Industrial Revolution Cars, oil and mass production (early 20th century) Steel and electricity (late 19th century) Rail and steam power (early 19th century) Cotton, iron and canals (late 18th century)© The Futures Company 2012 12
  14. 14. What happens: technology cycles broaden then deepen© The Futures Company 2012 13 Source: Adapted from Carlotta Perez
  15. 15. Confirmed or Busted? Technology is expanding at a pace never seen before© The Futures Company 2012 14
  16. 16. Statement #2 We can‟t predict what the biggest technologies of the next decade will be© The Futures Company 2012 15
  17. 17. We are understandably attached to the idea of boldly going whereno one has gone before New and emerging technologies are The one fact about the future of which we can be frequently described as if they were certain is that it will be utterly fantastic so fantastic that there is no way we Arthur C. Clark could predict themWhy? The myth of the “glaring white heat of technology” as a transcendental force, and the human race as pioneer The fetishization of gadgets prevents people forming a coherent overall view Science fiction writers, journalists, technology experts and—yes—consultants all have an agenda in promoting the view that technologies are unpredictable and the future The only certain thing about the future is that it will uncertain surprise even those who have seen the furthest into it E.J. Hobsbawm© The Futures Company 2012 16
  18. 18. Fortunately, compared to other trends, technologicaldevelopments are relatively easy to predict© The Futures Company 2012 17
  19. 19. Data, devices, screens and sensors: the transformationaltechnological developments of the next decade The four words you need to make sense of how digital technology will impact all areas of consumers‟ life to 2020 Wireless-enabled sensors embedded in everyday objects that can send and receive information about how people interact with the world around themInternet-enabled devices such asmobile phones, tablets or Flexible and immersive ways ofcomputers capable of displaying information beyond theaccessing, communicating and traditional 2-D computer or televisionsharing information everywhere screen Large amounts of information on all aspects of behavior, which can be stored, shared and analyzed to gain a greater understanding of patterns and trends© The Futures Company 2012 18
  20. 20. Why this matters: in the future, computing will be everywhere Then Now Next Computing = Computing Computing = Device = Network Everything Individual devices with Interlinked networked devices, The shift towards intelligent integrated digital hubs, cloud computing … environments which intuitivelyscreens, sensors/inputs, dat connect data, objects and people a processing What will really make the difference to 2020 is how data, devices, screens and sensors are flexed and combined to create entirely new applications or behaviors © The Futures Company 2012 19
  21. 21. Confirmed or Busted? We can‘t predict what the biggest technologies of the next decade will be© The Futures Company 2012 20
  22. 22. Statement #3 Mobile is “the next big thing”© The Futures Company 2012 21
  23. 23. You heard it here first: “Mobile is going to be big” Is this year The Year of the Mobile? Everyone can spot the transformational potential of the mobile phone  It has got into the hands of more people globally more quickly than any other technology in history: at last count, 69% of the world‟s population has a mobile phone subscription.  Apple devices (iPhone, iTouch, iPad etc.) have created the fastest new technology ecosystem in history.  Smartphones are more powerful now than personal computers a decade ago But  Smartphones are still at less than 10% penetration globally  Location-based applications are yet to take off  Nobody really knows what consumers are prepared to share about themselves on their mobile© The Futures Company 2012 22
  24. 24. You may have heard of “SoLoMo” already Social platforms Location based Mobile-enabled become embedded into services and search applications transform mobile behavior goes mainstream all behavior© The Futures Company 2012 23
  25. 25. The issue at the moment: speed, scale and reliability This new location-based shopping app is great! But it‘s too slow, and I look kind of weird if I have my phone out while I‘m waiting for it to load Foursquare seems like a cool idea, but it‘s kind of weird sharing your location, and none of my friends are on it yet I like the idea of online gaming on my tablet, but the network coverage in the city is so patchy that it‘s sometimes more trouble than it‘s worth.© The Futures Company 2012 24
  26. 26. What is going to make the difference: the 2016 moment Mobile lies at the heart of the “data, devices, screens and sensors” set of transformational technologies, and mobile connectivity is the key to enabling this The biggest change in connectivity over the decade Tasks that are often slow to will be the adoption of 4G networks perform today on the mobile Internet will become  Faster dramatically faster and easier to  More reliable accomplish with 4G, and location-specific services will  More secure move from being a niche  Searching on your mobile becomes as painless as proposition to a mainstream searching using broadband today one. Forecasts vary, but it is likely that around 2016 we‟ll see mainstream adoption of 4G across many Western, and some Asian, countries. We call this “the 2016 moment.”© The Futures Company 2012 25
  27. 27. Confirmed or Busted? Mobile is the ―next big thing‖© The Futures Company 2012 26
  28. 28. Statement #4 A cashless society is imminent© The Futures Company 2012 27
  29. 29. Looks like the end of the „greenback‟ is near Source: Mashable, June 29, 2011 Source: CBS News, March 18, 2012 Source: TrendWatching‟s Top 10 Trends for 2012© The Futures Company 2012 28
  30. 30. The case against cash is compelling Expensive Inconvenient/untraceable Dirty Dirty© The Futures Company 2012 29
  31. 31. Welcome to the digital wallet era? From This To This© The Futures Company 2012 30
  32. 32. Not so fast … Lack of standardization = Technology challenges Retailer reluctance consumer confusion • Percentage of NFC • Number of merchants who enabled phones in 2011 accept NFC: 150,000 1% (of 6 million +) (Source: The Yankee Group) • Cost per hardware enhancement: $400 - $500 The chicken and the egg problem ―It‘s a chicken and the egg situation. Retailers will invest if they believe it‘s something customers want, but at the same time, they cannot generate that interest if consumers cannot use it.‖ - David Hodgkinson, principal advisor in KPMG‟s customer and channel management practice© The Futures Company 2012 31
  33. 33. Consumer demand is far from guaranteed Consumer demand is inching up … Bigfoot wins 29 % of US consumers think Bigfoot is ―definitely‖ or ―probably‖ real Source: Angus Reid Public Source: Forrester Opinion, February 2012 Current system “works pretty well” Security concerns rank high ―Consumers don‘t really have a mobile payment problem. Ninety-five percent of 83 % of US consumers cite security as the the time, paying with cash and credit cards most important factor affecting their interest works pretty well‖ in mobile payments - Jack Stephenson, director of mobile, e-commerce and payments at JPMorgan Chase (Source: Ipsos Research, Feb 2012)© The Futures Company 2012 32
  34. 34. “The shock of the old” holds more sway than you might think 2015? Try 2205 ―The United States is nowhere near the realization of a ‗cashless society.‘ In fact, if the use of cash were to decline by 17% every five years—our forecast for 2015—it wouldn‘t fall below US$1 billion before the year 2205, roughly 200 years from now.‖ - Ron Shevilin, Senior Analyst, Aite Group in report, “The Less-Cash Society: Forecasting Cash Usage in the United States.”© The Futures Company 2012 33
  35. 35. Confirmed or Busted? A cashless society is imminent© The Futures Company 2012 34
  36. 36. Statement #5 Technology is the best way to understand Millennials© The Futures Company 2012 35
  37. 37. The common portrayal of Millennials can be misleading … They‘re green! They‘re optimistic! They‘re open!I am willing to make Some of the dreams I had for I appreciate the influence thatsignificant changes to my myself before the recession are other cultures have on ourlifestyle and my habits to live now probably out of reach way of life in this countryin a more environmentallyresponsible wayMillennials 2008: 43% Millennials 2009: 37% Millennials 2009: 53%Millennials 2010: 21% Millennials 2010: 49% Millennials 2010: 48%© The Futures Company 2012 36
  38. 38. Is Millennials‟ usage of technology a myth, too? Millennials: Confident. Connected. Open to Change© The Futures Company 2012 37
  39. 39. The Futures Company‟s Millennial segmentation can shed lighton this question Our Millennials segmentation is based on the Global MONITOR, The Futures Company‘s annual global tracking survey The segmentation covers 20 countries across the globe and was based on the responses of more than 8,500 Millennials (16 – 31 year olds)© The Futures Company 2012 38
  40. 40. Technology plays a critical and central role in Millennials‟ lives A real-time, fluid lifestyle Limitless connectivityWhether personally have a smart phone Check social networking sites several times each day or(iPhone, Blackberry or Droid) several times each hour (among social networking users) Baby Boomers Millennials Baby Boomers Millennials 2011: 28% 64% 2011: 35% 60% Knowledge and power Living life through technologyWith the ability to text message, take pictures in stores, I could not get by without my cell phone (among thoseand get the opinions from my friends, my cell phone/ who own cell phones)smart phone has become an indispensable tool whenI shop Baby Boomers. Millennials Baby Boomers. Millennials 2011: 22% 54% 2011: 40% 64%© The Futures Company 2012 39
  41. 41. Millennials‟ usage of technology, though, is not the samethroughout Performance tool ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY Creative facilitator • Technology to perform at my best • Expressive use of technology • Functional use of technology • Technology for creating and sharing • Technology for its own sake • Technology for open connections • Technology to protect me • Technology to help me with the • Technology to help me get ahead things I believe inAttitudes toward technology separate Millennials from other generations and segment them from each other.© The Futures Company 2012 40
  42. 42. Confirmed or Busted? Technology is the best way to understand Millennials© The Futures Company 2012 41
  43. 43. Statement #5 An “always on” way of life is the future© The Futures Company 2012 42
  44. 44. As technology becomes more pervasive, is this our future?© The Futures Company 2012 43
  45. 45. What does our MONITOR data tell us about the link betweentechnological development and attitudes towards technology? Using data from our Global MONITOR study, we Most technologically developed: wanted to take a look at hypotheses such as South Korea  Are more technologically developed countries more engaged with technology?  As countries get more technologically developed, do they get used to being more „always on‟? We looked at the correlation between the relative development of technological infrastructure and various attitudes about technology Least technologically  “Infrastructure” was calculated using data of fixed telephone usage, mobile phone subscription, internet usage and fixed developed: India broadband subscription, and taking a ranked average of each of these.© The Futures Company 2012 44
  46. 46. Fears may be misguided about “always on” future As technology gets more pervasive, the High levels of infrastructure generally equals need to be “always on” tends to decline lower engagement with technology ―The most profound technologies are those that disappear. They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it.‖ Mark Weiser, father of ubiquitous computing© The Futures Company 2012 45
  47. 47. We have also seen evidence that consumers are becoming moresophisticated at—and more comfortable with—switching off From ... … to Deliberate use of “unwired” technology Some hardening of social norms around set times and places that are „unwired‟© The Futures Company 2012 46
  48. 48. Confirmed or Busted? As technology develops, we‘ll adapt to an ―always on‖ way of life© The Futures Company 2012 47
  49. 49. For those of you playing along at home … AudienceStatement Confirmed Busted AnswersTechnology is expanding at a pace never 60% Xseen before bustedIt‟s impossible to predict the future of 75% Xtechnology busted 55%Mobile is “the next big thing” X busted 70%A cashless society is imminent X bustedTechnology is the best way to understand 60% XMillennials bustedAs technology develops, we‟ll get more 55% Xcomfortable being “always on” confirmed© The Futures Company 2012 48
  50. 50. Let‟s not keep on making the same mistakes about technology The most prominent reason why technological forecasts fail is that the people who have made them have been seduced by technological wonder … [They] fall in love with the technology they are based on and ignore the market the technology is intended to serve. Steven Schnaars, Megamistakes, 1989© The Futures Company 2012 49 Source: Steven Schnaars, Megamistakes, 1989
  51. 51. The big takeaways „Technology is expanding at a Think cultural, not just technological pace never seen before‟ change. The two are different „It‟s impossible to predict the Remember: Data, Devices, Screens and future of technology‟ Sensors Mobile devices will be transformational, „Mobile is “the next big thing”‟ but the “4G moment” makes the difference There is a reason why paper money is „A cashless society is imminent‟ still around, and why it will endure in the future Attitudes towards technology separate „Technology is the best way to Millennials from other generations, and understand Millennials segment Millennials „An “always on” way of life is the Don‟t think “always on” or “always off”; future‟ think about fitting in with the ups and downs of consumers‟ lives© The Futures Company 2012 50
  52. 52. Technology 2020 Futures Perspective Series •Technology 2020 Futures Perspectives •Can be found under the “free thinking section” at The Futures Company‟s website (www.thefuturescompany.com)© The Futures Company 2012 51
  53. 53. May LIVE Spotlight Date: May 16, Noon EST Topic: Generation X Women Host: Ann Clurman, Head of US MONITOR© The Futures Company 2012 52
  54. 54. Thank youRyan McConnell Ryan.McConnell@thefuturescompany.comAndy Stubbings andy.stubbings@thefuturescompany.comwww.thefuturescompany.comFollow us on Twitter

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