Baseline study survey on infrastructure projects in nepal

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Baseline study survey on infrastructure projects in nepal

  1. 1. Baseline Survey Study for Projects on Infrastructure Developments in Nepal Umesh Kumar Mandal Associate Professor Central Department of Geography Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur Email: umesh_jee@hotmail.comTraining on Management of Land Acquisition, Resettlement and Rehabilitation (MLARR)for the senior executives of DoR,17-20 January, 2013, Hotel Space Mountain, Nagarkot Organized by Road Sector skill development Unit(RSSDU) & RHF
  2. 2. What is baseline Study ?• A baseline study is a descriptive cross-sectional survey that mostly provides quantitative information on the current status of a particular situation - on whatever study topic - in a given population• It aims at quantifying the distribution of certain variables in a study population at one point in time. It involves the systematic collection and presentation of data to give a clear picture of a particular situation as it relates the following: What? Who? Where? When? Why? How?• A baseline normally covers only a sample of the population. If a baseline study covers the entire population it is called a census (FAO, 2004)
  3. 3. What is baseline Study ?• In RAIDP, a baseline study generates information on the socio-economic status of a given population on selected indicators in a specific clusters.• The baseline study is repeated at the completion of the development project/programme implementation to measure changes that have occurred over time in the characteristics that were studied before the beginning of the programme
  4. 4. What is baseline Study ?• A baseline study involves providing a snapshot of the standard of living in a community/population at a given moment. Depending on the information needs of the entity, a new snapshot is taken at least every two to four years (depending on the length of the project). These snapshots (and the analysis of the changes in between the snapshots) provide the information needed to (re)design a project or programme( Oury 2008).
  5. 5. What is baseline data ?• Baseline data are critical reference points for assessing changes• Baseline data is used as a starting point for gauging progress towards the goal and objectives and measuring the level and direction of change• It establishes a basis for comparing the situation before and after an intervention and making inferences as to the effectiveness of the project• Baseline data should include the kind of information that would be appropriate for measuring changes in accordance with the objectives of the programme or intervention
  6. 6. What is baseline data ?• Baseline data can be quantitative or qualitative or a combination of both.• The situation analysis and need assessment can provide some information that can serve asa baseline.
  7. 7. Question to ask about baseline plan ?• Does the baseline data describe the situation prior to the intervention?• Was it collected (will it be collected) within a timeframe close enough to the intervention so that meaningful conclusions can be reached regarding changes measured? There is no standard, recommended timeframe for meaningful, baseline data. The value of data for gauging possible change depends greatly on the context and environment.• Does the information describe the situation and measure factors that the objectives address?
  8. 8. Question to ask about baseline plan ?• Does the data accurately reflect the situation for the target population? If taken from a sample, can meaningful inferences be made about the target population?• It is not always necessary or feasible for organizations to conduct extensive baseline studies. Keep in mind that baseline data can also be collected from existing sources.
  9. 9. Illustrative Baseline Surveys• Nepal Living Standard Survey 2003/04& 2010/11• Poverty Alleviation Fund (PAF): M and E Baseline Survey 2010• Nepal Demographic Health Survey• Labor force survey
  10. 10. Quantitative ?Quantitative (or numerical) data provides comparable data on “who” and “how much.Methods for collecting quantitative data:• Surveys• Service provider records (health, justice, social service records• Demographic data• Administrative records
  11. 11. Qualitative ?Qualitative approaches provide contextual, in-depth information on the “why” and “how.” Qualitative information complements and provides greater insight into quantitative data.Challenges and limitations of qualitative methods:• Qualitative participatory methods require more time and resources• Qualitative data is harder to analyze and compare• Qualitative data is sometimes less “credible” to policy makers and donors who prefer numbers
  12. 12. QualitativeMethods for collecting qualitative data :• Case Study• Comparable views from diverse stakeholders• Triangulation:(document review, individual interviews and focus group discussions), informants and researchers allowed for triangulation of the data to corroborate and validate the findings• Participation of key stakeholders• Dialogue providing a neutral ground among some sectors that rarely interacted( voiceless) and in the consensus-building process around the
  13. 13. BASELINE STUDY END LINE STUDY/ FOLLOW UP STUDY PROJECT AFTERBEFORE INTERVENTIO N • CHANGE or IMPACT ASSESSMENT
  14. 14. Why conduct a baseline Study ? • To determine the extent of socio-economic patterns in a population and the usage levels of certain services, and to collect demographic information ( production, travel time/cost to socio- economic centers etc.) • To draw conclusions that can be applied generally to the whole population of a locality/intervention zone
  15. 15. Why conduct a baseline Study ? • To determine current indicator levels : transport ; non-agriculture activities , income, expenditure, - entrepreneurship ; education and health before intervention to prepare the programme objectives and to evaluate the progress/accomplishment of the additional objectives • To establish the target level/objectives of the project/programme or to provide base values for the chosen indicators
  16. 16. The Stages Involved In A Baseline Study1. Rationale and objectives2. Description of the research location/geographical context3. Methodology of the survey4. Results5. Conclusions and recommendations
  17. 17. Detailed Design of A Baseline Study1. Formulating the study purpose2. Formulating the problem statement3. Research justification/rationale4. Literature review5. Setting study objectives6. Methodology7. Implementation of the baseline study in the field8. Presentation of survey findings
  18. 18. 1.Rationale and objectives• In formulating the study objectives, bear the following in mind:• Objectives must cover the different aspects of the problem and its contributing factors in a coherent and logical sequence.• The objectives must be clearly phrased in operational terms, specifying exactly what needs to be done, where and for what purpose.• Objectives must be realistic considering local conditions.• Action verbs that are specific and measurable must be used in formulating the objectives. Examples of action verbs include: to determine, to compare, to verify, to calculate, to describe and to establish. Avoid such verbs as to appreciate, to understand or to study.
  19. 19. Setting study objectives using the SMART principleSpecificMeasurableAchievableRealisticTime-framed
  20. 20. For Example: Project Development Objective (PDO) of RAIDP Road Sub-project• 20 percent increase in motorize and non-motorized trips by beneficiaries by the end of the Project (EOP), and• 20 percent reduction in travel time by beneficiaries by EOP• 30 percent increase in annual average daily traffic (AADT) with the project districts in the categories bus, truck, micro bus and jeep
  21. 21. Project Output Indicators• 15% increase in the number of people in participating hill districts that live within four hours of walking to an all-season road, and• 10% increase in the number of people in participating Tarai districts that live within two hours of walking to an all-season road
  22. 22. 2. Description of the researchlocation/geographical context• This section contains the criteria used for selecting the location as well as gathering general information on the study population
  23. 23. Illustration: RAIDP Participating Districts• Cluster I: Kailali, Bardiya, Banke, and Salyan, Kanchanpur, Surkhet, Dang• Cluster II: Kapilvastu, Rupandehi, Nawalparasi and Palpa,Pyuthan,Gulmi,Arghakhanchi• Cluster III: Rasuwa, Kaski, Syangja, Dhading, Nuwakot and Makawanpur,Tanahu• Cluster IV: Rautahat, Sarlahi, Mahottari, Dhanusa, Siraha and Udayapur ,Bara,Parsa,Saptari ( Map)
  24. 24. 3. Methodology of the study• This section must provide a detailed outline of the overall study and describe the design of the tools, the sampling strategies (including the sizes of the samples) and the methods used for gathering the data. It is necessary to explain and justify the use of the research specifications and the methods chosen and also to discuss all the problems encountered
  25. 25. Experimental Design
  26. 26. Sampling methods and sampling size• Sampling: Sampling is essential because populations tend to be large and resources and time available limited with the result that it is usually not possible to study each person. For this reason there is little choice but to select a sample from the population and from it make projections or generalizations regarding the entire population• Representativeness
  27. 27. Sampling methods• Systematic random sampling• Stratified random sampling• Cluster sampling
  28. 28. Sample sizeTotal Suggested Percentagenumber of number ofgroup sample100 15 15200 20 10500 50 101000 50 5
  29. 29. Data collection tools and procedures1. Sex 1. Female 2. Male2. Age group 1. 15 - 20 years 2. 21 - 30 years 3. 31 - 40 years 4. 41 and above3. Place of delivery 1. Home 2. General hospital 3. Private hospital
  30. 30. Preparing the baseline study report• The Executive Summary• The Introduction•Presentation of findings•Conclusions and recommendations
  31. 31. Data analysis • Univariate analysis• Bivariate analysis Multivariate analysis
  32. 32. Preparing the baseline study report • The Executive Summary • The Introduction •Presentation of findings •Conclusions and recommendations
  33. 33. THANK YOU For Comments and Discussion
  34. 34. Review of project related documents• Project Appraisal Document• Proposed Additional Grant• Social Screening• Environmental and social management framework
  35. 35. Review of Earlier Baseline Survey Methodology• Nepal Living Standard Survey 2003/04• Poverty Alleviation Fund (PAF): M and E Baseline Survey 2010• Rural Access Program 2009• Impact Evaluation of rural road project, World Bank, 2008• Socio-economic baseline survey of rural road in Afganistan,2009
  36. 36. Key components derived from earlier Baseline Survey Methodology• Census or Sample districts• Defining primary sample unit(PSU)• 12-15 sampled households selected from each PSU
  37. 37. Developing baseline survey methodology of rural roads for RAIDP districts Bases of developing methodology mentioned in TOR• Sound statistical analysis to be performed on baseline data• Project (Treatment) and Control( Non- treatment) Areas to be selected with the consultation of DoLIDAR and DDCs• Zone of Influences• Acceptable sample household from settlement( minimum 20 hh)• Sampled HH to be contained social groups• Piloting of survey designed
  38. 38. Developing baseline survey methodology of rural roads for RAIDP districtsMulti- Stage Quasi- randomized designStage 1: one road from each 20 existing district and all roads almost 20 are from 10 additional new districts). 40 roads from 30 districtsStage 2: Total 80 PSUs , 2 PSUs from each road for project and control areas separately.Stage 3: 20 sampled households, 15 for project and 5 for control area
  39. 39. Data Sources1. Secondary• RAIDP documents/Various project reports• District level statistical data• Nepal Living Standard Survey2. Primary data• Household questionnaire Survey• Settlement level FGD• Traffic Flow Survey• GPS survey• SDC check list
  40. 40. Survey tools for Project areas• Household level questionnaire survey ( 450 hh) ( Nepali Conversion)• Focus group discussion (FGD) at settlement level ( 30 FGDs)• Accessibility or Traffic flow survey of selected road ( 30)• GPS location of HH intervened ( 600 hh)• GPS location for PSU
  41. 41. Survey tools for control areas• Household level questionnaire survey ( 150)• Focus group discussion (FGD) at settlement level( 30 FGDs)• GPS location of HH intervened• GPS location of PSU • Pre-test of survey tools • Cluster level orientation
  42. 42. Baseline Data Analysis• Project and Control Areas Comparasion• Ecological regions• Clusters• Caste and Ethnicity• Descriptive statistical summary measures
  43. 43. Output of Baseline Survey Study• Baseline Survey Report• GPS location of surveyed HH & Settlements• Database of Study report• Socio-economic Database: – Household level – Settlement level – Traffic survey
  44. 44. Major Findings
  45. 45. Demography of Sampled Population• Male population is seen higher both program and control area (male 52.42% and female 47.58%).• Average household size in project area and control villages was 6. 4 and 6.6 respectively• Average family size of project area has slightly decreased.• average household size of project road has increased than national level, 5.3 in2003/04. and 4.7 (NLSS 2010/11
  46. 46. Demography of Sampled Population• Average household size of High hill caste in project is 5.85 ,Muslim ( 7.92)• In control , Terai caste (5.6), muslim ( 9.38)
  47. 47. Dependency ratio of Sampled PopulationRegion Survey Dependency ratio clustersTerai 1 56.48 2 55.93 4 56.75Terai total 56.52Hill 1 57.79 2 46.69 3 52.96 4 61.76Hill total 51.72Grand Total 54.30The overall dependency ratio of the survey districts indifferent clusters is 54.30 (see Table 2.2a & Table 2.2b),which is much lower than the decreasing trend ofnational average figure of both periods 84.4 ( NLSS2010/11) and 89 (NLSS 2003/4).
  48. 48. Degree of spatial mobility Table-2.3a: Degree of spatial mobility by eco-regions and project & control areaSurvey Eco- Sample PeopleRegions Population migrated Migration (%)Terai 2074 159 7.67Hill 1760 154 8.75Project 3834 313 8.16Terai 734 30 4.09Hill 581 40 6.88Control 1315 70 5.32Total 5149 383 7.44
  49. 49. Degree of spatial mobility Project area Control areaCaste/ethn Sample Sample People Migraticity and Populati People Migrati Populat migrat ionarea on migrated on (%) ion ed (%)High hillcaste 1289 114 8.84 308 18 5.84Hill Dalits 311 27 8.68 135 8 5.93HillJanajati 723 70 9.68 413 26 6.30Teraicaste 590 31 5.25 140 4 2.86TeraiDalit 539 38 7.05 160 10 6.25TeraiJanajati 156 15 9.62 84 2 2.38Musalman 198 18 9.09 75 2 2.67Other
  50. 50. Degree of spatial mobility Project area Control area No of No ofCaste/ethni People Peoplecity and Travell Other Travell OtherArea ed Nepal India countries ed Nepal India countriesHigh hillcaste 114 27.19 33.33 39.47 18 11.11 27.78 61.11Hill Dalits 27 3.70 62.96 33.33 8 12.50 75.00 12.50Hill Janajati 70 28.57 34.29 37.14 26 7.69 15.38 76.92Terai caste 31 12.90 16.13 70.97 4 50.00 50.00 0.00Terai Dalit 38 31.58 28.95 39.47 10 60.00 30.00 10.00TeraiJanajati 15 0.00 53.33 46.67 2 50.00 50.00 0.00Muslim 18 5.56 22.22 72.22 2 0.00 50.00 50.00Other caste 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0.00Sub-total 313 22.04 34.19 43.77 70 20.00 31.43 48.57 Total 383 21.67 33.68 44.65
  51. 51. Literacy RateSurveyed Sample % 0f Literate peopleclusters Populatio Male Female Both ns 6years and above N0 % N0 % N0 %Cluster -I 985 480 92.13 364 78.45 844 85.69Cluster -II 842 413 94.94 325 79.85 738 87.65Cluster -III 698 332 91.71 264 78.57 596 85.39Cluster -IV 951 442 86.84 313 70.81 755 79.39Project 3476 1667 91.24 1266 76.77 2933 84.38Cluster -I 358 168 91.30 135 77.59 303 84.64Cluster -II 348 158 89.77 133 77.33 291 83.62Cluster -III 199 90 88.24 69 71.13 159 79.90Cluster -IV 304 149 88.69 101 74.26 250 82.24Control 1209 565 89.68 438 75.65 1003 82.96
  52. 52. THANK YOU For Comments and Discussion
  53. 53. Why developing methodology for baseline survey of rural road for RAIDP by World Bank• Evaluation of impact assessment• No concrete methodology developed by World Bank but guidelines.• Methodological drawbacks in earlier baseline survey• developing statistical sound methodology
  54. 54. Drawbacks of Earlier Baseline Survey• Three level of zone of influence is not covered.• Control village selected is not based on similar existing level of accessibility to main road network, basic economic and social facilities• Questionnaire developed is not in form of questionnaire rather draft table.• Household interviewed can not be identified now because of lack of data base
  55. 55. Required data for road alignment and covering VDCs

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