concept of Probability & risk in
exploration
Exploration cost can be mathematically expressed as, E = C/Ps
where,
C is the cost of discovering a mineral occurrence
Ps is the probability of discovering an economic deposit
Thus, lower the probability of discovery, higher is the risk
Success (Ps) or Failure (1-Ps) in Exploration is a function of
Ps = (P1) * (P2) * (P3), where
P1: probability of occurrence of an economic mineral deposit
in a prospect
P2: probability of actual discovery of that deposit
P3: probability that the deposit has sufficient economic worth
to compensate cost of exploration, development and mining