Building a betting model What is a betting model? Which type of betting do we focus on in this tutorial? How can I make profit from betting? www.betviz.com How can I quit job and make money solely/exclusively from betting entirely?

1. Building a betting model
 What is a betting model?
 Which type of betting do we focus on in this tutorial?
 How can I make profit from betting?
 How can I quit job and make exclusively money from betting ?

2. Betting model
Betting model is:
 Set of instructions, information and approaches that you use in order to be better than a
bookmaker. Your betting model is aiming to take money from the bookmaker, putting it
into your pocket. Some betting models do work, some don’t. Betting models must work on
large data, otherwise we can speak about luck.
What betting model is NOT:
 There is nothing reasonable behind those words when someone says he built betting
model for this year’s Champions League, showing you how he won 8 out 10 games he
focused on. Betting model requires several years of backtracking and at least several
hundreds of games that could be used as reference games. Betting model must give some
logical reasoning instead of telling ‘this is just the way it is’.

3. Betting model
Our aim is make money from sports, especially from FOOTBALL.
Everyone loves football and there is a lot of football betting markets.
Betting models for football varies a lot between:
- PRE-MATCH betting
- Fixed odds for home/draw/away wins are often available very soon, so you can build formulas and
evaluate them both programmatically (Excel, Java, Python,…) and also put together key facts like known
injuries, speculations and so on
- LIVE betting
- The best for specialists that watch the game. Here less of math is usually used, but of course, if you have
detailed data, you may use it them in order to make money. Like in Sir Alex Ferguson’s times there was
high probability of United scoring in the last 15 minutes. But this key fact means nothing without proper
formulation and without being able to evaluate bookmaker’s odds versus realistic ones.

4. Betting model
If you decide to go with PRE-MATCH betting, you may start to build your formula, taking
multiple facts together. It is up to you which dimensions of model you would prefer, such as:
- Short term team power
- Long term team power and club status
- Home/Away advantage
- Likeliness of playing close games
- Average shots on goal
- Crucial players missing from squad (http://betviz.com/en/fixtures)
- Manager change
- Etc.
There are infinite number of dimensions/metrics and it is up to YOU to eliminate irrelevant
ones and weight the importance of those that you prefer.

5. Betting model
REALITY VS MODEL problem:
- Aim of each model is to be as CLOSE to reality as possible.
- FORGET about building EXACT model of betting – there will NOT be such a model built ever.
But your model can be BETTER than the one that bookmaker has.
- Example (if your model looks closer to reality than bookmaker’s one, you can make money
out of that; in other words you are able to generate some profit)
reality
Your model Bookmaker’s model
reality

6. Betting model adjustments
When you build your formula, you must monitor the results and gain knowledge. For instance,
modifying the importance between some of the variables can significantly influence the
outputs.
Real model example – changing draw importance in Greek Super League games:

7. Betting model adjustments
Measurement shows that in 4 years out of 6 the change impacts the profit negatively and in 2
years out of 6 positively. That one gives the knowledge changing draw importance in this
direction is making model worse. Similarly we can measure influence of other dimensions ( we
can even try to count with referees impact, coaches being changed etc)

8. Betting model iterations
Adjust model
values
Measure profitGain knowledge
Is this what
makes you
enough money?
If yes, stop
iterating and
use the model.

9. Making money out of betting
There are many sites that tell you they can guarantee you 90 per cent success rate on even
odds. That would mean you earn 90 cents from every euro that you put in. THIS IS BULLSHIT!
There is no such reliable service out there in public and no betting experts can get you such
successful picks. Therefore betting market is poisoned by those cheats.
But following some of successful bettors can prove they are able to generate ~5 percent of
every euro that they put in. That might appear as not much, but if your bank is 10000 euros,
you can easily turn around 200000 a year than can make you profit of 10000 for instance –
that is doubling your bank annually. But sometimes that can be -2000, sometimes +15000 –
even best bettors have some bad months.
Answering the question if that can make you money is – definitely yes.
Answering the question if you can quit you job and start make a living – that depends on how
much do you need to earn, what is the minimum that you need in order to survive etc.