Learn tostartleanf2014 en

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Fra cafémøde, Learn to start Lean d. 9. april 2014

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Learn tostartleanf2014 en

  1. 1. Casper Wilstrup! Partner, Bestbrains A/S Learn to! Start Lean Bestbrains! 9. april 2014
  2. 2. Who am I? Where and with what do I work? Why am I here today?
  3. 3. Developers Source Control Check in
  4. 4. Developers Source Control Build and unit test Check in Trigger
  5. 5. Developers Source Control Build and unit test Check in Trigger
  6. 6. Developers Source Control Build and unit test System tests Check in Trigger Check in Trigger
  7. 7. Developers Source Control Build and unit test System tests Check in Trigger Check in Trigger
  8. 8. Developers Source Control Build and unit test System tests Limited deployment Check in Trigger Check in Trigger Check in Trigger Trigger Trigger
  9. 9. Developers Source Control Build and unit test System tests Limited deployment Check in Trigger Check in Trigger Check in Trigger Trigger Trigger
  10. 10. Developers Source Control Build and unit test System tests Limited deployment Full deployment Check in Trigger Check in Trigger Check in Trigger Trigger Trigger Check in Trigger Trigger Trigger Trigger
  11. 11. “Build — Measure — Learn”
  12. 12. Build
  13. 13. Build Measure
  14. 14. Build MeasureLearn
  15. 15. Build MeasureLearn
  16. 16. “Actionable Metrics”
  17. 17. Time Visits per day ! Vanity Metric!
  18. 18. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1st batch 2nd batch 3rd batch Acquisition Activation Retention Revenue Referral
  19. 19. Build MeasureLearn
  20. 20. “Minimum Viable Product”
  21. 21. Minimum Viable
  22. 22. Minimum Viable
  23. 23. Minimum Viable
  24. 24. Value Hypothesis How do we make money! !Alt fra den stund uenighed først og splid havde rejst sig mellem den ædling Achilleus og mændenes drot Agamemnon. Hvo iblandt guderne hidsed dem op til strid og til kivsmål? Leto's og Zeus's søn, den sølvbuevæbnede Apollon. For Agamemnon på smædelig vis havde hånet hans bønpræst $$ Growth Hypothesis How do we get customers?! ! Vreden, gudinde, besyng, som grep Peleiden Achilleus rædsomt og kvaler I! tusinde tal achaierne voldte. Helt mangfoldige heltes behjertrede sjæle den skikked ned til Hades' hjem, og for hunde til rov, som for alskens fugle den gav deres lig. Fuldbragt blev Zeus's beslutning.
  25. 25. “Pivot or Persevere”
  26. 26. 30
  27. 27. 31
  28. 28. 32 Goal Actual development Time Pivot
  29. 29. Pause
  30. 30. “Lessons Learned”
  31. 31. 35
  32. 32. My main objective with Lean Canvas was making it as actionable as possible while staying entrepreneur-focused
  33. 33. PROBLEM SOLUTION KEY METRICS UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION UNFAIR ADVANTAGE CHANNELS CUSTOMER SEGMENTS COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS
  34. 34. PROBLEM SOLUTION KEY METRICS UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION UNFAIR ADVANTAGE CHANNELS CUSTOMER SEGMENTS COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS 1 23 2 4 5 67 2 8 9
  35. 35. PROBLEM SOLUTION KEY METRICS UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION UNFAIR ADVANTAGE CHANNELS CUSTOMER SEGMENTS COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world ! Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones Viral? ● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month ● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations ● People who want to see the state of their house, boat, summer house or other possessions ● Tourists preparing their vacation Order live images of anything A dream team :-)
  36. 36. PROBLEM SOLUTION KEY METRICS UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION UNFAIR ADVANTAGE CHANNELS CUSTOMER SEGMENTS COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world ! Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones Viral? ● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month ● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations ● People who want to see the state of their house, boat, summer house or other posessions ● Tourists preparing their vacation Order live images of anything A dream team :-)
  37. 37. PROBLEM SOLUTION KEY METRICS UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION UNFAIR ADVANTAGE CHANNELS CUSTOMER SEGMENTS COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world ! Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones Viral? ● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month ● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations ● People who want to see the state of their house, boat, summer house or other possessions ● Tourists preparing their vacation Order live images of anything A dream team :-)
  38. 38. PROBLEM SOLUTION KEY METRICS UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION UNFAIR ADVANTAGE CHANNELS CUSTOMER SEGMENTS COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world ! Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself ● We Go Look App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones Viral? ● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month ● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations ● People who want to see the state of their house, boat, summer house or other possessions ● Tourists preparing their vacation Order live images of anything A dream team :-)
  39. 39. PROBLEM SOLUTION KEY METRICS UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION UNFAIR ADVANTAGE CHANNELS CUSTOMER SEGMENTS COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world ! Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself ● We Go Look App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones Viral? ● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month ● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations ● People who want to see the state of their house, boat, summer house or other possessions ● Tourists preparing their vacation Order live images of anything A dream team :-)
  40. 40. Revenue and Cost Average bounty: !! ! ! ! ! 200 kr! Our commission: ! ! ! ! ! 12%! Orders per month after 2 years: ! ! 20000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 Omkostninger Indtægt
  41. 41. Accumulated Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 Omkostninger Indtægt (akk) Average bounty: !! ! ! ! ! 200 kr! Our commission: ! ! ! ! ! 12%! Orders per month after 2 years: ! ! 20000
  42. 42. PROBLEM SOLUTION KEY METRICS UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION UNFAIR ADVANTAGE CHANNELS CUSTOMER SEGMENTS COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world ! Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself ● We Go Look App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones Viral? ● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month ● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations ● People who want to see the state of their house, boat, summer house or other possessions ● Tourists preparing their vacation Order live images of anything A dream team :-)
  43. 43. PROBLEM SOLUTION KEY METRICS UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION UNFAIR ADVANTAGE CHANNELS CUSTOMER SEGMENTS COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world ! Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself ● We Go Look App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones Viral? ● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month ● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations ● People who want to see the state of their house, boat, summer house or other possessions ● Tourists preparing their vacation Order live images of anything A dream team :-)
  44. 44. The “Problem - Customer” Interview
  45. 45. Welcome! 2 min – set the stage Demography! 2 min – verify the segment Problem kontext! 2 min – describe the problem Test the problem! 20 min – listen to customer Wrap up! 2 min – ask for commitment Write down results! 5 min – document right away
  46. 46. Problem interview ! Welcome and thanks for your time ! We’re working on a service where users can order pictures or videos from any location ! Let me stress that it’s not a finished product, but rather some loose product ideas we’re workning on ! I’ll start by explaining some of the most important problems we’re trying to solve. Then I’d like to hear if you experience some of these problems, and how you handle them today. Welcome! 2 min – set the stage Demography! 2 min – verify the segment Problem kontext! 2 min – describe the problem Test the problem! 20 min – listen to customer Wrap up! 2 min – ask for commitment Write down results! 5 min – document right away Welcome! 2 min – set the stage
  47. 47. But to start with, I’d like to ask you some questions about yourself. ! - Age - Sex - IT experience - Smartphone - Social media - Use of images - Owns house, summer house or similar - Boat or similar - Travel habits Welcome! 2 min – set the stage Demography! 2 min – verify the segment Problem kontext! 2 min – describe the problem Test the problem! 20 min – listen to customer Wrap up! 2 min – ask for commitment Write down results! 5 min – document right away Demography! 2 min – verify the segment
  48. 48. Tell a story ! Last week we had another one of these storms. I have a summer house in Western Jutland, and after the storm I was very worried about the house. ! It was more than a week before I was able to go there, and that got me thinking … ! And then I have this hobby with ancient Mesopotamia (The Louvre Visit) Welcome! 2 min – set the stage Demography! 2 min – verify the segment Problem kontext! 2 min – describe the problem Test the problem! 20 min – listen to customer Wrap up! 2 min – ask for commitment Write down results! 5 min – document right away Problem kontext! 2 min – describe the problem
  49. 49. Make the customer talk ! - Has he experienced similar situations? - What did he do about it? - How important was it really?. ! Notice body language Don’t ask leading questions Welcome! 2 min – set the stage Demography! 2 min – verify the segment Problem kontext! 2 min – describe the problem Test the problem! 20 min – listen to customer Wrap up! 2 min – ask for commitment Write down results! 5 min – document right away Test the problem! 20 min – listen to customer
  50. 50. Ask for commitment ! As I told you, we don't have a finished product, but we’re working on it. ! - Could we arrange a new appointment, where I can show you a prototype? - Do you know anyone else I can talk to? - Can I send you project newsletters in the future? - Would you like to sign up for a beta? - And pay for it? Welcome! 2 min – set the stage Demography! 2 min – verify the segment Problem kontext! 2 min – describe the problem Test the problem! 20 min – listen to customer Wrap up! 2 min – ask for commitment Write down results! 5 min – document right away Wrap up! 2 min – ask for commitment
  51. 51. Document observations. ! In a Google spreadsheet or similar. Welcome! 2 min – set the stage Demography! 2 min – verify the segment Problem kontext! 2 min – describe the problem Test the problem! 20 min – listen to customer Wrap up! 2 min – ask for commitment Write down results! 5 min – document right away Write down results! 5 min – document right away
  52. 52. What we found ”I ask my neighbour to go look”! - Else, summer house owner, 44 years ”Then everyone will know I’m on vacation!”! - Karen, house owner, 61 years ”Neat, but not something I’d pay for”! - Jesper, student, 26 years
  53. 53. PROBLEM SOLUTION KEY METRICS UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION UNFAIR ADVANTAGE CHANNELS CUSTOMER SEGMENTS COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world ! Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself ● We Go Look App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones Viral? ● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month ● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations ● People who want to see the state of their house, boat, summer house or other possessions ● Tourists preparing their vacation Order live images of anything A dream team :-)
  54. 54. PROBLEM SOLUTION KEY METRICS UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION UNFAIR ADVANTAGE CHANNELS CUSTOMER SEGMENTS COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world ! Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself ● We Go Look App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones Viral? ● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month ● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations ● Journalists looking for “eyes on the ground” ● Others in ad hoc need Order live images of anything A dream team :-)
  55. 55. PROBLEM SOLUTION KEY METRICS UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION UNFAIR ADVANTAGE CHANNELS CUSTOMER SEGMENTS COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world ! Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself ● We Go Look App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones Viral? ● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month ● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations ● Journalists looking for “eyes on the ground” ● Others in ad hoc need Order live images of anything A dream team :-)
  56. 56. PROBLEM SOLUTION KEY METRICS UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION UNFAIR ADVANTAGE CHANNELS CUSTOMER SEGMENTS COST STRUCTURE REVENUE STREAMS It is difficult to obtain instant images of arbitrary places in the world ! Alternative solutions: ● Google Street View ● Image search ● Go there yourself ● We Go Look App and web: Customers order live images, and offer a bounty Agents execute the tasks using their smartphones Customers: The established media ! Agents: Educational organisations for photographers, journalists ● Percentage of bounties ● Location based advertising Initial development of MVP app/web: 1 mill Hosting: 5000/md Staff (1 dev, 1 support): 90000/month ● Visit page ● Registrer ● Create order ● Order executed ● Returning ● Recommendations ● Journalists looking for “eyes on the ground” ● Others in ad hoc need Order live images of anything A dream team :-)
  57. 57. Specify Estimate Develop Deploy to test Verify Deploy to prod User! Stories
  58. 58. Estimate Develop Deploy to test Verify Deploy to prod User! Stories Specify Forecast
  59. 59. Estimate Develop Deploy to test Verify Deploy to prod User! Stories Specify Validate Forecast Forecast
  60. 60. Estimate Develop Deploy to test Verify Deploy to prod User! Stories Specify Validate Forecast ForecastFeatures BacklogBacklogBacklog
  61. 61. PROBLEM 1 22 SOLUTION 4 KEY METRICS 8 UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION 3 UNFAIR ADVANTAGE 9 CHANNELS 5 CUSTOMER SEGMENTS 2 COST STRUCTURE 7 REVENUE STREAMS 6
  62. 62. PROBLEM 1 22 SOLUTION 4 KEY METRICS 8 UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION 3 UNFAIR ADVANTAGE 9 CHANNELS 5 CUSTOMER SEGMENTS 2 COST STRUCTURE 7 REVENUE STREAMS 6
  63. 63. PROBLEM OR NEED 1 22 SOLUTION 4 KEY METRICS 8 UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION 3 UNFAIR ADVANTAGE 9 CHANNELS 5 CUSTOMER SEGMENTS 2 COST STRUCTURE 7 REVENUE STREAMS 6
  64. 64. PROBLEM OR NEED 1 22 SOLUTION 4 KEY METRICS 8 UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION 3 UNFAIR ADVANTAGE 9 CHANNELS 5 AFFECTED USERS 2 COST STRUCTURE 7 REVENUE STREAMS 6
  65. 65. PROBLEM OR NEED 1 22 SOLUTION 4 KEY METRICS 8 KEY BENEFIT 3 UNFAIR ADVANTAGE 9 CHANNELS 5 AFFECTED USERS 2 COST STRUCTURE 7 REVENUE STREAMS 6
  66. 66. PROBLEM OR NEED 1 22 FEATURE DESCRIPTION 4 KEY METRICS 8 KEY BENEFIT 3 UNFAIR ADVANTAGE 9 CHANNELS 5 AFFECTED USERS 2 COST STRUCTURE 7 REVENUE STREAMS 6
  67. 67. PROBLEM OR NEED 1 22 FEATURE DESCRIPTION 4 KEY METRICS 8 KEY BENEFIT 3 UNFAIR ADVANTAGE 9 CHANNELS 5 AFFECTED USERS 2 COST STRUCTURE 7 EFFECT ON REVENUE 6
  68. 68. PROBLEM OR NEED 1 22 FEATURE DESCRIPTION 4 KEY METRICS 8 KEY BENEFIT 3 UNFAIR ADVANTAGE 9 CHANNELS 5 AFFECTED USERS 2 EFFECT ON COST 7 EFFECT ON REVENUE 6
  69. 69. PROBLEM OR NEED 1 22 FEATURE DESCRIPTION 4 EFFECT ON METRICS 8 KEY BENEFIT 3 UNFAIR ADVANTAGE 9 CHANNELS 5 AFFECTED USERS 2 EFFECT ON COST 7 EFFECT ON REVENUE 6
  70. 70. PROBLEM OR NEED 1 22 FEATURE DESCRIPTION 4 EFFECT ON METRICS 8 KEY BENEFIT 3 UNFAIR ADVANTAGE 9 DEVELOPER ESTIMATE 5 AFFECTED USERS 2 EFFECT ON COST 7 EFFECT ON REVENUE 6
  71. 71. PROBLEM OR NEED 1 22 FEATURE DESCRIPTION 4 EFFECT ON METRICS 8 KEY BENEFIT 3 DEVELOPER ESTIMATE 5 AFFECTED USERS 2 EFFECT ON COST 7 EFFECT ON REVENUE 6
  72. 72. PROBLEM OR NEED 1 FEATURE DESCRIPTION 4 EFFECT ON METRICS 8 KEY BENEFIT 3 DEVELOPER ESTIMATE 5 AFFECTED USERS 2 EFFECT ON COST 7 EFFECT ON REVENUE 6
  73. 73. EFFECT ON COST PROBLEM OR NEED 1 FEATURE DESCRIPTION 4 EFFECT ON METRICS 8 KEY BENEFIT 3 DEVELOPER ESTIMATE 5 AFFECTED USERS 2 EFFECT ON REVENUE 7 6
  74. 74. EFFECT ON COST PROBLEM OR NEED FEATURE DESCRIPTION EFFECT ON METRICS KEY BENEFIT DEVELOPER ESTIMATE AFFECTED USERS EFFECT ON REVENUE Describe Forecast FEATURE NAME
  75. 75. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1. kvartal Besøg Registering Opret opgave Opgave udført Vender tilbage Deler tjenesten
  76. 76. EFFECT ON COST PROBLEM OR NEED FEATURE DESCRIPTION EFFECT ON METRICS KEY BENEFIT DEVELOPER ESTIMATE AFFECTED USERS EFFECT ON REVENUE Describe Forecast Our frontpage and user interface is English only All users with another native language (73%) Users - especially new ones - understand our app better Auto detect country using geo ip, … 8 FP +5% on registration +2% on create order + 1% on share app Calculate, calculate … +10.000,- / month None FEATURE NAME Localisation
  77. 77. USER STORY! ! When I visit the start page, the app should auto-detect my location (country) USER STORY! ! Based on my country, the app should suggest a default language. Initially: English. German, Spanish, French USER STORY! ! Translate start page and app to German USER STORY! ! Translate start page and app to Spanish USER STORY! ! Translate start page and app to French USER STORY! ! Let the user override the default language USER STORY! ! Save selected language in user preferences
  78. 78. USER STORY! ! When I visit the start page, the app should auto-detect my location (country) USER STORY! ! Based on my country, the app should suggest a default language. Initially: English. German, Spanish, French USER STORY! ! Translate start page and app to German USER STORY! ! Translate start page and app to Spanish USER STORY! ! Translate start page and app to French USER STORY! ! Let the user override the default language USER STORY! ! Save selected language in user preferences
  79. 79. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1. kvartal Visit Registration Order created Order executed Returning user Share service
  80. 80. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1. kvartal 2. kvartal Visit Registering Order created Order executed Returning user Share service
  81. 81. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1. kvartal 2. kvartal 3. kvartal Visit Registration Order created Order executed Returning user Share service
  82. 82. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1. kvartal 2. kvartal 3. kvartal 4. kvartal Visit Registration Order created Order executed Returning user Share service
  83. 83. α = 2(1 - Φ(n)) Statistical Significance?
  84. 84. ?

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