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“How can we wisely approach an
unpredictable future?”
Clemens Wieland
Belgrade, June 12th, 2018
Agenda
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 2
Digitalization and
its influence on the
world of work
01
What does
Digitalization mean for
Vocational Education
and Training?
02
Lessons
learned
03
Example: Textile manufacturing through the ages
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 3
Picturecredits:Bundesarchiv,Bild183-53194-0002/Wittig/CC-BY-SA3.0;CC01.0Universal
So, will a robot be doing your job in the future?
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 4
Source:http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34066941
The trend is obvious:
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 5
Source:Dostal1995
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1880 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Agriculture
Services
Manufacturing
Information services
Number of employed people in Germany in %
47
53
12
15
59
14
12
Frey/Osborne (2014)
Bowles, J. (2014)
Bonin, H. | Gregory, T. | Zierahn, U. (2015)
Dengler, K. | Matthes, B. (2015)
Brzeski, C. | Burk, I. (2015)
Buch, T. | Dengler, K. | Matthes, B. (2016)
Arntz, M. | Gregory, T. | Zierahn, U. (2016)
But bear in mind: Change is not a blueprint. It’s a journey.
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 6
Study results on the share of automatable jobs in %
Agenda
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 7
Digitalization and
its influence on the
world of work
01
What does
Digitalization mean for
Vocational Education
and Training?
02
Lessons
learned
03
Two challenges for Vocational Education and Training in the light of
digitalization
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 8
Equal opportunities:
How can we professionally qualify as
many young people as possible in
view of the increasing requirements in
the world of work?
Picturecredits:CC01.0;BSt/ValeskaAchenbach
Economic performance:
How can we secure the need for skilled
employees in an ever-changing world of
work?
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 9
Picturecredits:CC01.0Univers
Economic performance:
How can we secure the need for skilled
employees in an ever-changing world of
work?
… by adapting existing and developing new professions
Examples for adaptation:
 3-D printers for dental technicians
 Use of drones in construction and agriculture
 Use of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS)
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 10
Recommendation
Keep the institutional framework flexible for adaptation and development of new
professions based on the requirements of the world of work.
smart factory
smart technology
Examples for development:
 IT management assistant
 IT systems technician
 Salesman for e-commerce
… by keeping competences up to date
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 11
Recommendation
 Teach “learning to learn” instead of only accumulating know-how.
 Keep the system flexible for lifelong learning.
VET traditionally focusses on skills and know-how – but knowledge becomes obsolete faster
and faster
Are your skills history?
However, know-how has an expiration date.Skill-based VET eases work entry.
Picturecredits:CC01.0
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 12
Picturecredits:ValeskaAchenbach
Equal opportunities:
How can we professionally qualify as
many young people as possible in
view of the increasing requirements in
the world of work?
… by making way for new didactical approaches
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 13
Past: “one-dimensional”
textbook for all
Future: “more-dimensional
learning map” with individual paths
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
….
Picturecredits:BertelsmannStiftung
Recommendation
Use digitalization to give students the power to learn in the way they prefer
(path), at their own pace and level (place).
… and shifting classroom paradigms by making teachers learning tutors
and not only conveyors of knowledge
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 14
Lecture Homework activities
Traditional classroom
Lecture Classroom activities
Flipped classroom
Recommendation
Use small group instruction to empower students to develop critical thinking,
communication and problem-solving skills.
… and by overcoming motivational barriers through gamification
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 15
Picturecredit:CCBY-NC2.0licensedflickrphotosharedbyJoits
Action
RewardMotivation
Recommendation Use digitalization to develop new forms of learning.
Agenda
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 16
Digitalization and
its influence on the
world of work
01
What does
Digitalization mean for
Vocational Education
and Training?
02
Lessons
learned
03
In a nutshell: How to approach an unpredictable future
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 17
5) Use digitalization to develop new forms of learning.
4)
Use small group instruction to empower students to develop critical thinking,
communication and problem-solving skills.
3)
Use digitalization to give students the power to learn in the way they prefer (path),
at their own pace and level (place).
2)
 Teach “learning to learn” instead of only accumulating know-how.
 Keep the system flexible for lifelong learning.
1)
Keep the institutional framework flexible for adaptation and development of new
professions based on the requirements of the world of work.
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 18
Food for thought:
Dual education has a head start in terms of digital
competences compared to other forms of education:
Doing an apprenticeship in a company with an
economical interest in using state-of-the-art technology,
is clearly beneficial.
www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de
Besuchen Sie uns auch auf
Clemens Wieland
Senior Project Manager
Program Learning for Life
Bertelsmann Stiftung
Phone: +49 5241 81-81253
Fax: +49 5241 81-681253
E-Mail: clemens.wieland@bertelsmann-stiftung.de
E-Mail: LL-News@bertelsmann-stiftung.de
Please visit us on
/en
References:
Frey/Osborne (2014) The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?
https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf
Bowles, J. (2014) The computerisation of European jobs
http://bruegel.org/2014/07/the-computerisation-of-european-jobs/
Bonin, H., Gregory, T., & Zierahn U. Übertragung der Studie von Frey/Osborne (2013) auf Deutschland (2015)
ftp://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/gutachten/Kurzexpertise_BMAS_ZEW2015.pdf
Dengler, K. und B. Matthes (2015) Folgen der Digitalisierung für die Arbeitswelt
http://www.iab.de/185/section.aspx/Publikation/k151209302
Brzeski, C.; und I. Burk (2015) Die Roboter kommen Folgen der Automatisierung für den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt
https://www.ing-diba.de/pdf/ueber-uns/presse/publikationen/ing-diba-economic-analysis-die-roboter-kommen.pdf
Buch, T. , K. Dengler und B. Mattes (2016) Saarland, Thüringen und Baden-Württemberg haben den größten Anpassungsbedarf
http://doku.iab.de/kurzber/2016/kb1416.pdf
Arntz, M., T. Gregory und U. Zierahn (2016) The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/5jlz9h56dvq7-
en.pdf?expires=1527599638&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=7253A10BA6663200162E880AF3A34AF7
12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 20

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Ways to Approach an Unpredictable Digital Future

  • 1. “How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” Clemens Wieland Belgrade, June 12th, 2018
  • 2. Agenda 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 2 Digitalization and its influence on the world of work 01 What does Digitalization mean for Vocational Education and Training? 02 Lessons learned 03
  • 3. Example: Textile manufacturing through the ages 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 3 Picturecredits:Bundesarchiv,Bild183-53194-0002/Wittig/CC-BY-SA3.0;CC01.0Universal
  • 4. So, will a robot be doing your job in the future? 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 4 Source:http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34066941
  • 5. The trend is obvious: 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 5 Source:Dostal1995 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1880 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Agriculture Services Manufacturing Information services Number of employed people in Germany in %
  • 6. 47 53 12 15 59 14 12 Frey/Osborne (2014) Bowles, J. (2014) Bonin, H. | Gregory, T. | Zierahn, U. (2015) Dengler, K. | Matthes, B. (2015) Brzeski, C. | Burk, I. (2015) Buch, T. | Dengler, K. | Matthes, B. (2016) Arntz, M. | Gregory, T. | Zierahn, U. (2016) But bear in mind: Change is not a blueprint. It’s a journey. 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 6 Study results on the share of automatable jobs in %
  • 7. Agenda 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 7 Digitalization and its influence on the world of work 01 What does Digitalization mean for Vocational Education and Training? 02 Lessons learned 03
  • 8. Two challenges for Vocational Education and Training in the light of digitalization 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 8 Equal opportunities: How can we professionally qualify as many young people as possible in view of the increasing requirements in the world of work? Picturecredits:CC01.0;BSt/ValeskaAchenbach Economic performance: How can we secure the need for skilled employees in an ever-changing world of work?
  • 9. 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 9 Picturecredits:CC01.0Univers Economic performance: How can we secure the need for skilled employees in an ever-changing world of work?
  • 10. … by adapting existing and developing new professions Examples for adaptation:  3-D printers for dental technicians  Use of drones in construction and agriculture  Use of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 10 Recommendation Keep the institutional framework flexible for adaptation and development of new professions based on the requirements of the world of work. smart factory smart technology Examples for development:  IT management assistant  IT systems technician  Salesman for e-commerce
  • 11. … by keeping competences up to date 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 11 Recommendation  Teach “learning to learn” instead of only accumulating know-how.  Keep the system flexible for lifelong learning. VET traditionally focusses on skills and know-how – but knowledge becomes obsolete faster and faster Are your skills history? However, know-how has an expiration date.Skill-based VET eases work entry. Picturecredits:CC01.0
  • 12. 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 12 Picturecredits:ValeskaAchenbach Equal opportunities: How can we professionally qualify as many young people as possible in view of the increasing requirements in the world of work?
  • 13. … by making way for new didactical approaches 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 13 Past: “one-dimensional” textbook for all Future: “more-dimensional learning map” with individual paths Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 …. Picturecredits:BertelsmannStiftung Recommendation Use digitalization to give students the power to learn in the way they prefer (path), at their own pace and level (place).
  • 14. … and shifting classroom paradigms by making teachers learning tutors and not only conveyors of knowledge 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 14 Lecture Homework activities Traditional classroom Lecture Classroom activities Flipped classroom Recommendation Use small group instruction to empower students to develop critical thinking, communication and problem-solving skills.
  • 15. … and by overcoming motivational barriers through gamification 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 15 Picturecredit:CCBY-NC2.0licensedflickrphotosharedbyJoits Action RewardMotivation Recommendation Use digitalization to develop new forms of learning.
  • 16. Agenda 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 16 Digitalization and its influence on the world of work 01 What does Digitalization mean for Vocational Education and Training? 02 Lessons learned 03
  • 17. In a nutshell: How to approach an unpredictable future 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 17 5) Use digitalization to develop new forms of learning. 4) Use small group instruction to empower students to develop critical thinking, communication and problem-solving skills. 3) Use digitalization to give students the power to learn in the way they prefer (path), at their own pace and level (place). 2)  Teach “learning to learn” instead of only accumulating know-how.  Keep the system flexible for lifelong learning. 1) Keep the institutional framework flexible for adaptation and development of new professions based on the requirements of the world of work.
  • 18. 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 18 Food for thought: Dual education has a head start in terms of digital competences compared to other forms of education: Doing an apprenticeship in a company with an economical interest in using state-of-the-art technology, is clearly beneficial.
  • 19. www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de Besuchen Sie uns auch auf Clemens Wieland Senior Project Manager Program Learning for Life Bertelsmann Stiftung Phone: +49 5241 81-81253 Fax: +49 5241 81-681253 E-Mail: clemens.wieland@bertelsmann-stiftung.de E-Mail: LL-News@bertelsmann-stiftung.de Please visit us on /en
  • 20. References: Frey/Osborne (2014) The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf Bowles, J. (2014) The computerisation of European jobs http://bruegel.org/2014/07/the-computerisation-of-european-jobs/ Bonin, H., Gregory, T., & Zierahn U. Übertragung der Studie von Frey/Osborne (2013) auf Deutschland (2015) ftp://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/gutachten/Kurzexpertise_BMAS_ZEW2015.pdf Dengler, K. und B. Matthes (2015) Folgen der Digitalisierung für die Arbeitswelt http://www.iab.de/185/section.aspx/Publikation/k151209302 Brzeski, C.; und I. Burk (2015) Die Roboter kommen Folgen der Automatisierung für den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt https://www.ing-diba.de/pdf/ueber-uns/presse/publikationen/ing-diba-economic-analysis-die-roboter-kommen.pdf Buch, T. , K. Dengler und B. Mattes (2016) Saarland, Thüringen und Baden-Württemberg haben den größten Anpassungsbedarf http://doku.iab.de/kurzber/2016/kb1416.pdf Arntz, M., T. Gregory und U. Zierahn (2016) The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/5jlz9h56dvq7- en.pdf?expires=1527599638&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=7253A10BA6663200162E880AF3A34AF7 12.06.2018 |“How can we wisely approach an unpredictable future?” 20