Commercial construction
turned around in 2012
and is expected to
continue to improve
Construction spending and its components
$ Billions
1,400

History

1,300

Forecast

1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500...
Reed total starts
(3-month moving average year-over-year)
3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
45
40
35
30
25
2...
Total construction spending
1,250

Billion $, SAAR

1,200
1,150
1,100
1,050
1,000
950

900
850
800
750
700
2002

2003

200...
Residential
construction
continues to
improve
Residential construction spending components
800

$ Billions

History

700

Forecast

600

500
400
300
200
100
0
02

03

0...
Reed residential starts
(3-month moving average year-over-year)
3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
50
40
30
2...
New residential construction spending
Billion $, SAAR
550
500
450
400
350

300
250
200
150
100
93

94

95

96

97

98

99
...
Residential construction spending components
450

$ Billions

400

2002

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2...
Nonresidential building
construction has struggled
lately, but is expected to
improve over the remainder
of this year and ...
Reed nonresidential building starts
(3-month moving average year-over-year)
3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Chang...
Nonresidential construction spending
Billion $, SAAR
475

450
425
400
375
350

325
300
275
250
225

200
2002

2003

2004

...
Nonresidential spending components
100
90
80
70

$ Billions

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2...
Nonresidential spending components
110

$ Billions

100

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

90

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2...
Nonresidential spending components
70

$ Billions

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013
...
Heavy engineering
(non-building)
construction held
up best over the
last few years
Despite considerable
challenges, the outlook
for heavy engineering
construction is fairly
positive
Reed heavy engineering starts
(3-month moving average year-over-year)
3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
90
8...
Heavy engineering construction spending
Billion $, SAAR
325

300

275

250

225

200

175

150
2002

2003

2004

2005

200...
Heavy engineering spending components
130
120

$ Billions

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

201...
Heavy engineering spending components
110

$ Billions

100

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

20...
Regional
economic
performance
Economic performance of the states

Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
Economic performance of the states

Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
Connect with Reed Construction Data
 Twitter
twitter.com/Bmarkstein

 Twitter
twitter.com/ReedConstrData

 Facebook
www...
Contact information and links
Bernard M. Markstein
 Office: 301-588-5190
 Mobile: 404-952-3381
 b.markstein@reedbusines...
Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2
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Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2

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Main presentation slides from the Reed Construction Data Oct 17, 2013 webinar: "The 2014 Outlook: Emerging Opportunities for Construction"

Published in: Business, Economy & Finance
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Reed fall econ webcast oct 17, 2013 markstein_part 2

  1. 1. Commercial construction turned around in 2012 and is expected to continue to improve
  2. 2. Construction spending and its components $ Billions 1,400 History 1,300 Forecast 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 02 03 04 Residential 05 06 07 08 09 Nonresidential Building 10 11 12 13 14 Heavy Construction Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data 15
  3. 3. Reed total starts (3-month moving average year-over-year) 3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 Source: Reed Construction Data
  4. 4. Total construction spending 1,250 Billion $, SAAR 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 950 900 850 800 750 700 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data 2012 2013 2014 2015
  5. 5. Residential construction continues to improve
  6. 6. Residential construction spending components 800 $ Billions History 700 Forecast 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 02 03 04 05 06 Improvements 07 08 09 10 Single-family Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data 11 12 13 Multifamily 14 15
  7. 7. Reed residential starts (3-month moving average year-over-year) 3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Source: Reed Construction Data
  8. 8. New residential construction spending Billion $, SAAR 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
  9. 9. Residential construction spending components 450 $ Billions 400 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 350 2003 2013 2014 2015 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Single-Family Multifamily Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data Improvements
  10. 10. Nonresidential building construction has struggled lately, but is expected to improve over the remainder of this year and strengthen further in 2014 and 2015
  11. 11. Reed nonresidential building starts (3-month moving average year-over-year) 3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 Source: Reed Construction Data
  12. 12. Nonresidential construction spending Billion $, SAAR 475 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data 2012 2013 2014 2015
  13. 13. Nonresidential spending components 100 90 80 70 $ Billions 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Hotel/Lodging Office Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data Commerical
  14. 14. Nonresidential spending components 110 $ Billions 100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 90 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Religious Healthcare Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data Education
  15. 15. Nonresidential spending components 70 $ Billions 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Public safety Amusement and recreation Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data Manufacturing
  16. 16. Heavy engineering (non-building) construction held up best over the last few years
  17. 17. Despite considerable challenges, the outlook for heavy engineering construction is fairly positive
  18. 18. Reed heavy engineering starts (3-month moving average year-over-year) 3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Source: Reed Construction Data
  19. 19. Heavy engineering construction spending Billion $, SAAR 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data 2012 2013 2014 2015
  20. 20. Heavy engineering spending components 130 120 $ Billions 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Transportation Communication Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data Power
  21. 21. Heavy engineering spending components 110 $ Billions 100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Highway Water and Sewer Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data Conservation
  22. 22. Regional economic performance
  23. 23. Economic performance of the states Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
  24. 24. Economic performance of the states Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
  25. 25. Connect with Reed Construction Data  Twitter twitter.com/Bmarkstein  Twitter twitter.com/ReedConstrData  Facebook www.facebook.com/Reed-Construction-Data  LinkedIn www.linkedin.com/company/reed-construction-data  Web www.reedconstructiondata.com
  26. 26. Contact information and links Bernard M. Markstein  Office: 301-588-5190  Mobile: 404-952-3381  b.markstein@reedbusiness.com  U.S. Forecast and Commentary: http://www.reedconstructiondata.com/marketintelligence/articles/  Blog: http://www.reedconstructiondata.com/marketintelligence/bernie-markstein/

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